|
|
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,065 Likes: 1
Dawg Talker
|
OP
Dawg Talker
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,065 Likes: 1 |
Until the draft thread opens we gotta talk QB's
Teddy- we only get him if the Texans don't want him.
Johnny F- Do we trade both firsts and more? Do we wait till #4 and see if he's still there?
Bortles- He's gonna lift the first Lombardi on the stand for the Browns? Really? You think he's that good? Skillset? Leadership? Character? Work Ethic?
Carr- Put the keys in the ignition and punch it. Get away fast.
Tajh- Select him any higher than our 2nd round pick? Master of the bubble screen and long looping deep pass. That's a little harsh. I think he's a good guy.
Hoyer and Campbell-
D.A. and Quinn- Hey they're both available! Kinda scary that Whisenhunt brought in D.A. and made him the starter after Warner retired. Really scary.
Barry Bonds Check
Roger Clemens Check
Mark McGuire Check
Lance Armstrong Check
71-79 Steelers Taboo
(Lets pretend it didn't happen.)
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 12,635
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 12,635 |
At this stage, i'm prepared for the team to throw the farm and whatever else to acquire Bridgewater. If not, I hope they target Boyd. JMO - but Johnny Football and Carr are two must-avoids... but I wouldn't be shocked if we end up with Manziel unfortunately. Gut feeling  In any case, there is no room on this roster for one Brandon Weeden.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 11,465
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 11,465 |
Same here.
I wouldn't take Manziel in the second, let alone trade picks for him.
But something tells me our FO may feel differently.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,089
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,089 |
I think Manziel is there at 4 and I hope we take him. I'm hoping people keep jumping on the Bortles hype train and Clowney is too good to still be on the board at 4.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,065 Likes: 1
Dawg Talker
|
|
OP
Dawg Talker
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,065 Likes: 1 |
Awhile back I went on a rant about how difficult it is for colleges to recruit Quarterbacks with any skillset outside of running the read option.
Over the next few years we are going to be seeing fewer and fewer college QB's with the ability to run a pro set. Trust me.
Our choices are going to become more limited.
Not good.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,693
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,693 |
I have a feeling Bortles or Bridgewater and Manziel are there at 4. If so, I'm almost certain we'll take a QB. I can actually see a scenario where all three are there, and through trades with Texas and the Jags, the first three off the board are Clowney, Jake Matthews and Sammy Watkins. Whatever happens, I hope we do abso-freakin'-lutley nothing to move up.
JMHO
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/hfMNC7T.jpg) "I am undeterred and I am undaunted." --Kevin Stefanski "Big hairy American winning machines." --Baker Mayfield #gmstrong
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,864 Likes: 26
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,864 Likes: 26 |
Quote:
Awhile back I went on a rant about how difficult it is for colleges to recruit Quarterbacks with any skillset outside of running the read option.
Over the next few years we are going to be seeing fewer and fewer college QB's with the ability to run a pro set. Trust me.
Our choices are going to become more limited.
Not good.
Aside from Luck who has succeeded in recent drafts?
Running/QB's, let's not act like the sky is falling. We drafted Weeden, they drafted RG III, barring injury, the results speak for themselves. It's not nearly that black and white.
In today's NFL you have to be able to move unless you're a superstar and those take years to develop. Even Luck, moves very well.
Also, I really don't like how you're putting Derek Anderson starting all at the feet of Wisenhunt. Who were his other options to start? Were they better? Who was their GM, did he bring in the players?
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 51,494 Likes: 728
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 51,494 Likes: 728 |
well, if we stay at 4, and none of the QB's are there, then what?
i guess we are going with hoyer then? maybe take Boyd with our second round pick?
the hell are we gonna do with the second 1st?
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
- Theodore Roosevelt
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,864 Likes: 26
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,864 Likes: 26 |
Quote:
well, if we stay at 4, and none of the QB's are there, then what?
i guess we are going with hoyer then? maybe take Boyd with our second round pick?
the hell are we gonna do with the second 1st?
I would try my hardest to move down at that point. Personally, I think we should be trying to move up.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,693
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,693 |
Quote:
well, if we stay at 4, and none of the QB's are there, then what?
i guess we are going with hoyer then? maybe take Boyd with our second round pick?
the hell are we gonna do with the second 1st?
Somebody will be there at 4, if you're of the school that you have to take a QB at that pick
Tajh Boyd may even be there for the taking in the third round.
2nd 1st? WR, OG, CB, ILB, FS... take your pick of BPA.
"I am undeterred and I am undaunted." --Kevin Stefanski "Big hairy American winning machines." --Baker Mayfield #gmstrong
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 51,494 Likes: 728
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 51,494 Likes: 728 |
Quote:
Quote:
well, if we stay at 4, and none of the QB's are there, then what?
i guess we are going with hoyer then? maybe take Boyd with our second round pick?
the hell are we gonna do with the second 1st?
I would try my hardest to move down at that point. Personally, I think we should be trying to move up.
thats what i was thinking. but if we stay at 4, why not just take BPA, or of need?
i wouldn't be pissed if we grabbed watkins with the 4 at all.
i don't know if i would be all mad if we went and grabbed boyd with our second 1st, seeing as its a low 1st, anyway.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
- Theodore Roosevelt
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 51,494 Likes: 728
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 51,494 Likes: 728 |
Quote:
Quote:
well, if we stay at 4, and none of the QB's are there, then what?
i guess we are going with hoyer then? maybe take Boyd with our second round pick?
the hell are we gonna do with the second 1st?
Somebody will be there at 4, if you're of the school that you have to take a QB at that pick
Tajh Boyd may even be there for the taking in the third round.
2nd 1st? WR, OG, CB, ILB, FS... take your pick of BPA.
well, i mean if the big 3 are gone, there be no point in taking another QB that high if he isn't worth it.
like i said to bpG just now, i might take watkins with the #4, and then with the second 1st, i wouldn't be mad if they went ahead and took boyd.
either way....man there's so many possibilities, its actually scary.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
- Theodore Roosevelt
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,693
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,693 |
I'm saying there is no way in hell they go 1, 2, 3... and would not be shocked to see them all there at 4, and figure maybe 2 of the three being there isn't such a stretch.
I firmly believe this board has Bortles, Bridgewater & Manziel rated higher than the actual scouts scouting them.
"I am undeterred and I am undaunted." --Kevin Stefanski "Big hairy American winning machines." --Baker Mayfield #gmstrong
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 6,946 Likes: 70
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 6,946 Likes: 70 |
Quote:
Quote:
well, if we stay at 4, and none of the QB's are there, then what?
i guess we are going with hoyer then? maybe take Boyd with our second round pick?
the hell are we gonna do with the second 1st?
I would try my hardest to move down at that point. Personally, I think we should be trying to move up.
With Clowney and Matthews still there, I don't think you'll have any problem finding a trading partner...
When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the losers...Socrates
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 51,494 Likes: 728
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 51,494 Likes: 728 |
i don't agree.
even mcshay and kipler have players rated high than even Teddy.
but thats overall. clowney is the clear number 1 player coming out.
the problem? the teams picking in the top 8 or so need QB's more than they need a pass rusher.
which is why we rate Teddy and Manziel as high as we do, because the #1 need on THIS team is a QB, same as Jacksonville and most likely houston.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
- Theodore Roosevelt
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,864 Likes: 26
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,864 Likes: 26 |
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
well, if we stay at 4, and none of the QB's are there, then what?
i guess we are going with hoyer then? maybe take Boyd with our second round pick?
the hell are we gonna do with the second 1st?
I would try my hardest to move down at that point. Personally, I think we should be trying to move up.
With Clowney and Matthews still there, I don't think you'll have any problem finding a trading partner...
If Clowney is there, I take him. I don't really care who we have at the position. We haven't been a spot to grab a once in a generation guy since Thomas/Peterson. But yeah, if it's Mathews, we can and should try to move down.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13,358
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13,358 |
I don't see a clear "Big 3." cbssports.com currently has QBs rated 3, 6, 9, and 19 overall. GBNreport has QBs rated 2, 6, 12, and 14. Scouts, INC has a clear "top" 3, having QBs in spots 12, 15, and 18 as the only QBs in their top 32, but none of them are seen as top-10 prospects in this draft.
I see why people have Manziel and Bridgewater as top QB prospects. I don't see why anyone else is seen as the same tier of prospect. JMO.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 51,494 Likes: 728
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 51,494 Likes: 728 |
you think Watkins might be worth that #4?
i mean, if we don't grab a QB, since this thread is about Qb's i guess.
Hoyer having Gordon and Watkins on the outside, Bess or Cooper in the slot, Cameron at TE....sounds like the works of a pretty decent offense.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
- Theodore Roosevelt
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 51,494 Likes: 728
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 51,494 Likes: 728 |
Quote:
I don't see a clear "Big 3." cbssports.com currently has QBs rated 3, 6, 9, and 19 overall. GBNreport has QBs rated 2, 6, 12, and 14. Scouts, INC has a clear "top" 3, having QBs in spots 12, 15, and 18 as the only QBs in their top 32, but none of them are seen as top-10 prospects in this draft.
I see why people have Manziel and Bridgewater as top QB prospects. I don't see why anyone else is seen as the same tier of prospect. JMO.
thats what i'm saying though. they aren't the top prospects as far as overall players.
but they are on teams needing a QB first. like us.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
- Theodore Roosevelt
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 2,066 Likes: 16
Dawg Talker
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 2,066 Likes: 16 |
j/c Interesting statistics from Greg Peshek's article "2014's Quarterback Conundrum" . It is best to go to the link. You will see charts and diagrams. Verbiage below: Quote:
With respect to quarterbacks in the draft, you’ll always hear pundits make observations such as, “this QB has a great deep ball” or “he always folds when he’s under pressure in the pocket.” But how do you know those are true and not bias from a small sample of observed snaps? The simple answer is that you don’t. What I’ve aimed to do this year (and in years past) is to quantify those observations in an effort complement film study and analysis of draft prospects. Instead of guessing about the potency of Manziel’s deep ball, you can pull up the legitimate statistic.
To do that, I’ve hand charted every one of Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Johnny Manziel, and Blake Bortles’ attempts this year on everything from pass distance to throws against the blitz. The data here can’t render an opinion for you, but it can provide an effective complement to your knowledge on a prospect.
Where Did They Throw the Ball?
The ‘zones’ in the chart represent where the QB threw the ball on the field, that is exactly the spot the receiver caught the ball. This is to make sure yards after the catch don’t influence our opinion on the QBs.
Targets
- Most notable for Bridgewater is the lack of screens incorporated in the offense. Some have said that Bridgewater throws a high quantity of short passes, however the screens a QB normally utilizes have become short throws so that Bridgewater throws 53% of his passes in the 1-10 yard zones.
- Derek Carr is the complete opposite, throwing 33% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, but few in the 1-10 yard range. The high number of short attempts means that he throws the deep ball less than average 11.35% of the time. In addition he throws to the important intermediate zone (11-20 yards) 18.3% of the time which means overall he pushes the ball down the field less than normal.
- Similar to Carr, Bortles doesn’t throw the deep ball as much as average, but makes up for it by hitting intermediate routes more often - throwing from 6-20 yards 40% of the time.
- In an era of screen passes, Manziel threw the deep ball far more than the other QBs he’s compared to here. Manziel targeted his WRs nearly 19% of the time on passes deeper than 20 yards and still went to his intermediate targets 19% of the time.
How Accurate Were They?
This requires a bit of explaining. The chart below represents each QBs accuracy in the individual target zones when adjusting for drops by their receivers. The colors represent how that accuracy compares to the ‘Average QB’, green is better than average, yellow average, red is below-average. Let’s get to it.
PRR
- It’s pretty clear that Bridgewater cleans up in every zone except the deep ball. He’s excellent throwing the short ball where he’s about 6-7% above average for the two zones. Some have criticized Bridgewater’s deep ball, and while not bad - his completion percentage of about 51% is about average.
- Having a big arm is a trait that every scout desires, but that doesn’t matter if it’s not particularly effective. Derek Carr’s accuracy on 20+ yard throws is poor, coming in nearly 7% below-average. In addition, his accuracy on NFL type throws (11-20 yards) is just about as expected at 64%. His only redeeming category is in the 6-10 yard range where he is slightly above average.
- There's an interesting dichotomy in Bortles’ throw ability. His 55% completion percentage on deep throws is extremely positive, but he’s only average on the intermediate throws hitting 64% of his total targets. However, he’s above average in the 6-10 range as well, so it’s likely that hitting that intermediate zone is just a matter of getting the touch down.
- For all the criticism Manziel gets, he’s extremely good at hitting his targets downfield. His ‘NFL type’ throws in the 11-20 yard range is the highest in the top 8 QBs in this class at 70.5% and he’s slightly better than Bortles at hitting the 20+ yard throws.
- Before we start getting into the debates about Manziel scrambling around the heaving it up for Mike Evans…his accuracy was similar when throwing solely from the pocket, hitting 67% of his 11-20 yard passes and 59% of his 20+ yard passes
How Do They Do Under Pressure?
I’ve got quite a few stats for these QBs, but for the sake of brevity I’ve picked their completion percentage while being blitzed and under pressure to highlight. For reference, a blitz counts regardless of whether the O-line picks it up, but under pressure is when the QB is moved off his spot or has to get rid of the ball quicker than anticipated.
Pressure
- Upon first glance it’s pretty clear that Carr is lacking in both categories. His 50% completion percentage when under pressure is the worst among the top 8 QBs in this class and he’s not setting the world ablaze against the blitz either.
- When looking at both categories, Bridgewater is the clear winner. He and Bortles both complete about 63% of their passes when under pressure, but Bridgewater is heads above the other QBs against the blitz – nearly matching his ability when there are no extra rushers.
- Bortles has been noted for his success when under pressure and it shows here, hitting 63% of his passes when the defense is bearing down. He has the second highest completion percentage against the blitz at 71.05%.
- Manziel’s just about average in both categories where he’s just about where you’d expect a top notch college QB to be.
How Did Their Systems Affect Them?
My goal here was to take out the variability of systems they all played in. Thus, how would Derek Carr have performed in an average system? This is imperfect, but it gives you a feel for how the systems helped or harmed them.
What I’ve done is taken out drops and then used the data to create an average system. The result is what their overall completion percentage would have been if they had played in an average system and the difference between the actual and adjusted completion percentages.
Pressure
- Bridgewater, Bortles and Manziel’s systems had a limited effect on their results from the 2013 season. As you can see in the first section, none of them played in a system that put them in a position to artificially increase their production.
- Derek Carr on the other hand would lose 3.5% off his completion percentage for the season. When you decrease his number of screens which are a high percentage pass and increase the number of below-average deep passes – it shows how much effect the system had on his production.
- Below you can find a target chart for each QB detailed here. The graphic shows the location of each target for the quarterback broken down into individual spots on the field. The bigger the circle, the more passes a QB threw to that spot. The colors signify accuracy, the brighter red – the hotter or more accurate the QB was. The more blue spots represent cold or less accurate areas.
- The charts don’t give you any statistical insight, but are there to give you a feel for how the QB did throwing to certain areas. IE…did Bridgewater do well throwing to his left, outside the numbers or how frequently did Bortles target the middle of the field.
That’s the extent of this post, lest I write a novel going into every stat I have. If you have any questions you can shoot them to me on Twitter @NU_Gap. Thanks for reading.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,398 Likes: 280
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,398 Likes: 280 |
Quote:
Awhile back I went on a rant about how difficult it is for colleges to recruit Quarterbacks with any skillset outside of running the read option.
Over the next few years we are going to be seeing fewer and fewer college QB's with the ability to run a pro set. Trust me.
Our choices are going to become more limited.
Not good.
Or, as Peen has been saying for a few years, the old "pro set" is going to have to change... It would be silly to keep that system if colleges aren't putting guys that can run it... we've already seen a number of teams begin to adapt and three of them, Carolina, Seattle, and San Fran are probably the 3 best teams in the NFL...
yebat' Putin
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,753 Likes: 11
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,753 Likes: 11 |
My 2 cents
Teddy- probably true, unless someone trades to #1 and takes a different position. Still, we’d likely need to trade up to get him
Johnny F- He’d be off my draft board for the first 3 rounds.
Bortles- I like the potential, his footwork, and athleticism. He reminds me though of a bigger version of Jake Locker. Not sure he’s worth a top 10 pick.
Carr- I like his potential as well, and his arm. How much of Carr is the system. Not sure he’s worth a top 10 pick either.
Tajh- I have not seen him projected in the 2nd anywhere (though I will admit, I’ve only paid attention to a few sites at this point). To me we consider him starting in the 4th round
Hoyer and Campbell- Hoyer as starter with Campbell and at least one (I’m a proponent of drafting 2 QBs) draft to fight over #2 and #3.
I’ll add Jimmy Garoppolo to the thread. Super fast release and accurate. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, but I’d take a chance on him. I haven’t kept up to date on where he’s projected, but it used to be 5th round. I expect that this will change significantly between now and the draft. If he’s there in the 3rd, I’d definitely consider him.
I’ll also add AJ McCarron to the thread. I’ve seen comparisons to Tom Brady lately, but I see Alex Smith. Not worthy of a first rounder, but if he’s there in the 3rd, I’d definitely consider him.
Beyond these guys, I just don’t see too much. And there’s not much in FA either…
To me, take Watkins at #4 if he’s still there, then see what happens. If either Bortles or Carr are available in the teens, then work on moving up with the Indy pick and whatever else. Otherwise, Garoppolo or McCarron later.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,693
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,693 |
Nice article, thanks Bugs!  About what we thought in terms of overall performance, but it does lay their hot & cold target areas out nicely.
"I am undeterred and I am undaunted." --Kevin Stefanski "Big hairy American winning machines." --Baker Mayfield #gmstrong
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,753 Likes: 11
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,753 Likes: 11 |
Quote:
Nice article, thanks Bugs!
About what we thought in terms of overall performance, but it does lay their hot & cold target areas out nicely.
+1 on that!
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13,358
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13,358 |
Quote:
Or, as Peen has been saying for a few years, the old "pro set" is going to have to change... It would be silly to keep that system if colleges aren't putting guys that can run it... we've already seen a number of teams begin to adapt and three of them, Carolina, Seattle, and San Fran are probably the 3 best teams in the NFL...
Carolina, Seattle, and San Fran also have excellent defenses.
One of those three QBs (Wilson) played in a WCO every year he was in school. Spider 2 Y Banana Andrew Luck ran a West Coast Offense at Stanford. Is there a better QB to come out in the last 5 years than those two? Kaepernick and Newton are exciting and talented but who would pick one of those two guys over Wilson or Luck right now? I guess you could say Foles who started off at Michigan St. then transferred to Arizona's spread offense under Rodriguez. I wonder how much is Foles and how much is Kelly.
I don't think it's mere coincidence that 80% of college teams run a spread offense and we're at the point where some people think Brian Hoyer is a better (or at least safer) option than anyone in the draft. QBs are getting rarer.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 12,635
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 12,635 |
Quote:
QBs are getting rarer.
... which sucks cause there is added pressure for a lot of the high round selected QB's to come in and perform solid their rookie year with the success of RGIII (his first year), Luck, Newton and company... the days of "allow them to sit and ride the bench" are also getting rarer.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,960 Likes: 3
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,960 Likes: 3 |
just a general thought
What percentage of qb's taken in the first round would you say have become solid starting quarterbacks? Just spitballing, id say 40%
trying to come up with a number we get this pick right
President - Fort Collins Browns Backers
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,647 Likes: 5
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,647 Likes: 5 |
Quote:
Or, as Peen has been saying for a few years, the old "pro set" is going to have to change... It would be silly to keep that system if colleges aren't putting guys that can run it... we've already seen a number of teams begin to adapt and three of them, Carolina, Seattle, and San Fran are probably the 3 best teams in the NFL...
Agreed. I think many of these college QBs are able to get by on sheer athletic ability and aren't really forced to be as cerebral. If the NFL offenses don't change they won't have anyone to run them. As you said, if colleges aren't using these systems, why would the NFL keep doing it.
My dad calls it the "dumbing down" of QBs. I think there's some validity to that. I also think it will shorten the career "life expectancy" of NFL QBs due to more running that is being done.
There may be people who have more talent than you, but there's no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do.
-Derek Jeter
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,753 Likes: 11
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,753 Likes: 11 |
This is somewhat subjective, but below is a list of first round QBs 1993-2012 (20 years) and a link to where I got this info. I came up with 42% (21 of 50) with Griffin III and Tannehill being TBD. I suspect that I have some considered solid that others wouldn't be, and some that are not that others would consider... Year...Pick....Name..............Team 2012…..1…..Andrew Luck…..Colts 2012…..2…..Robert Griffin III…..Redskins 2012…..8…..Ryan Tannehill…..Dolphins 2012…..22…..Brandon Weeden…..Browns 2011…..1…..Cam Newton…..Panthers 2011…..8…..Jake Locker…..Titans 2011…..10…..Blaine Gabbert…..Jaguars 2011…..12…..Christian Ponder…..Vikings 2010…..1…..Sam Bradford…..Rams 2010…..25…..Tim Tebow…..Broncos 2009…..1…..Matthew Stafford…..Lions 2009…..5…..Mark Sanchez…..Jets 2009…..17…..Josh Freeman…..Buccaneers 2008…..3…..Matt Ryan…..Falcons 2008…..18…..Joe Flacco…..Ravens 2007…..1…..JaMarcus Russell…..Raiders 2007…..22…..Brady Quinn…..Browns 2006…..3…..Vince Young…..Titans 2006…..10…..Matt Leinart…..Cardinals 2006…..11…..Jay Cutler…..Broncos 2005…..1…..Alex Smith…..49ers 2005…..24…..Aaron Rodgers…..Packers 2005…..25…..Jason Campbell…..Redskins 2004…..1…..Eli Manning…..Chargers 2004…..4…..Philip Rivers…..Giants 2004…..11…..Ben Roethlisberger…..Steelers 2004…..22…..J.P. Losman…..Bills 2003…..1…..Carson Palmer…..Bengals 2003…..7…..Byron Leftwich…..Jaguars 2003…..19…..Kyle Boller…..Ravens 2003…..22…..Rex Grossman…..Bears 2002…..1…..David Carr…..Texans 2002…..3…..Joey Harrington…..Lions 2002…..32…..Patrick Ramsey…..Redskins 2001…..1…..Michael Vick…..Falcons 2000…..18…..Chad Pennington…..Jets 1999…..1…..Tim Couch…..Browns 1999…..2…..Donovan McNabb…..Eagles 1999…..3…..Akili Smith…..Bengals 1999…..11…..Daunte Culpepper…..Vikings 1999…..12…..Cade McNown…..Bears 1998…..1…..Peyton Manning…..Colts 1998…..2…..Ryan Leaf…..Chargers 1997…..26…..Jim Druckenmiller…..49ers 1995…..3…..Steve McNair…..Oilers 1995…..5…..Kerry Collins…..Panthers 1994…..3…..Heath Shuler…..Redskins 1994…..6…..Trent Dilfer…..Buccaneers 1993…..1…..Drew Bledsoe…..Patriots 1993…..2…..Rick Mirer…..Seahawks http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13,358
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13,358 |
So if we draft two with our two first round picks, we've got about a 2-out-of-3 chance of getting it right?
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,753 Likes: 11
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,753 Likes: 11 |
Looking at who we've taken in the first round, we're way overdue...
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 17,850
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 17,850 |
Quote:
So if we draft two with our two first round picks, we've got about a 2-out-of-3 chance of getting it right?
we'd probably pick one of the correct choices but start the other guy
#gmstrong
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 68,364 Likes: 1370
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 68,364 Likes: 1370 |
j/c
I keep seeing people that indicate that when it comes to drafting a QB it's "insert name here" like any of the top three or four names on a draft board will turn out the same.
I simply don't believe that. I believe a FO has to do research, evaluate and find their target. The you get that target. The failures of so many highly drafted QB should show hoe miserably the "insert name here" game works out. Weeden anyone?
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
#gmstrong
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,398 Likes: 280
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,398 Likes: 280 |
I concur... then beyond that, you have to put whoever you draft in a position to succeed... but you have to be prepared to pass if the guy you want isn't there and if you are going to take a flyer, do it later in the draft..
yebat' Putin
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,964
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,964 |
Your last point is the most important one, with the critical nature of the QB position and the rarity of the skillset, having your QB also be a runner is a bad long-term bet.
Colleges replace their QB a lot more often than the NFL, they are not really concerned with any long-term gain, there isn't one. NFL QB can last 10 years or more.
RG3 and his bum knee are a prime example. Running QBs get broken in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 12,635
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 12,635 |
Quote:
having your QB also be a runner is a bad long-term bet.
But yet we are seeing more and more read option offenses.
RGIII is a bad example to use cause he's too stupid to learn and slide. Or has too much pride. In any case, I give that kid another three, maybe four years of the path he's on currently of gobbling up sacks, not sliding and just flat out not protecting himself before he's a piece of burned paper that a small gust of wind can crumble. It seems like any time I see him get hit, it's just like "well his shelf life just got shorter".
JMO, but I'd hate to be RGIII's body the day after gameday. 
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,864 Likes: 26
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,864 Likes: 26 |
Having your QB take less hits, obviously is a long term recipe for success. It can't be ignored any longer the success of guys like Kaepernick, RG III, Russel Wilson and they even run the read option with Nick freaking Foles in Philly. It's not going away, the tempo offense isn't going anywhere, it limits defensive substitutions.
Again, it's not going anywhere. There will always be a place for the pocket passer, but it's not the only option anymore. It's like when every team ran a 4-3 defense, along came the 3-4 and people realized it was more versatile. I won't be upset with Bridgewater or Manziel. I just pray we make the right choice and adjust our offensive staff and game plans accordingly.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,398 Likes: 280
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,398 Likes: 280 |
Quote:
with the critical nature of the QB position and the rarity of the skillset, having your QB also be a runner is a bad long-term bet.
But it's inevitable... there just aren't enough pocket passers in the system to fill the need in the NFL.. if you can get one, great... but most teams are going to have to use the QB as, at least a part-time runner... the key, as was pointed out, is being smart about it.. get down, get out of bounds, don't take the big hits.
Heck Andrew Luck has run it 60+ times in each of his first 2 seasons and he's about as close to a pure pocket passer as you will see (though I admit he's pretty athletic).. and he's running it the same amount that Elway and Steve Young did 20-30 years ago and they were considered running QBs in their day...
I agree with you that I would not want an offense which had 10 designed runs per game for the QB.. but the age of the athletic QB is here, the age of the statue is pretty much dying...
yebat' Putin
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,065 Likes: 1
Dawg Talker
|
|
OP
Dawg Talker
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,065 Likes: 1 |
But,
Haven't they really streamlined the read option down from last year?
Now that defenses have learned what it takes to slow it down, it really seems to have tailed off quite a bit to me.
The NFL has always been able to take away what you are doing. The problem is that once they take something away, they have to give something else up.
Washington almost scaled the read option down to nothing. SF really toned it down from last year, we hardly saw Kapernick run until last week. etc....
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,398 Likes: 280
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,398 Likes: 280 |
And most of Kaepernicks runs last week were scrambles...
Yes, it will be a long time before you see the full blown read option in the NFL where the QB is supposed to run the ball 15-18 times a game... I agree that you probably can't get away with that... The other thing, in addition to the fact that a college usually only has a QB for a couple years so they are less concerned about wear and tear is that colleges can carry a bunch of QBs and whether you get a good one or two or three is based on your ability to recruit, not on your ability to draft.. and you can bring in 3 new ones every year if you need to so they can always have a fresh supply and if one doesn't work, replace him with a new recruit... you can't do that in the NFL..
But by the same token, QBs running it 60+ times a year whether its scramble or design, is going to be the norm.. not sure you will see too many QBs coming in like Aikman who only run it 25-30 times a year... you have to have a QB that can at least be a threat with his legs...
yebat' Putin
|
|
|
DawgTalkers.net
Forums The Archives 2014 NFL Season NFL Draft 2014 Quarterback 2014 and Beyond
|
|
