Hey all - there are now 100 days to the draft, which is a long time. I figured instead of arguing about each prospect casually over the next 3+ months, we could instead watch one video of a prospect per day, everybody can give their scouting report and then at the end of 100 days, we will have a big board that includes most of the prospects from the first 2/3 rounds (or at least those most important to the Browns needs). Also, it really shouldn't take more than about 15 min/day, and should give us a more concrete way to argue about prospects.
Again, the idea is that we post a single game tape of a prospect (I am planning to give videos of the top prospects twice), and then people can make a pro/con and overall ranking for the prospect based only on the game tape (try to leave out off-field stuff, injury history, discussions of other prospects). In order to help us compare between prospects, I am planning to concentrate on different position groups every two weeks or so -- and want to start with QBs, since we know we need one fairly high in this draft.
For the next two weeks, I am planning to do 14 QB videos, broken down as: Bridgewater (x2), Bortles (x2), Manziel (x2), Carr (x2), McCarron, Mettenberger, Garappolo, Thomas, Murray, Boyd, though I'm certainly happy to change this if people have any other ideas/opinions. On the last day or two, we can also add an extra video for any of the prospects that people think they need to see again. Then when we are done, we will rank (and give grades Top 10, 1st, 2nd, 3rd/4th, 5th/6th/7th) round to each. After we are done with QBs, we can try to hit WRs, OGs, CBs, ILBs, and also spend some time on other probable 1st/2nd round picks?
I'm open to any suggestions on how to improve this (especially which videos we should watch for each prospect). Over the first four days, I was going to show Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel/Carr play against the top ranked defense each player faced in 2013 (going off here, which I realize is not great) http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/st...ference=I-A_all
Pro - 1.) Handles lots of pre-snap reads and adjustments, pro style offense 2.) Very good velocity and accuracy on the short/intermediate outroute, even while moving from the pocket 3.) Also shows very nice touch on the intermediate and deep corner route. Can loft the ball over the DB accurately 4.) Extremely accurate when he throws in rhythm to his first option, can hit the back shoulder, the front shoulder, hits receivers in stride allowing for YAC.
Con - 1.) Stares down and throws into double coverage with no pressure (:30) 2.) His pre-snap reads are far more advanced than his post-snap reads. Throws to first option ~90% of the time, gets him into trouble at least twice. 3.) When he misses, he misses high - which isn't where you want to miss 4.) Rarely, you see a pass without much spin, gloves? small hands?
Other - 1.) Arm strength won't blow you away, but is average to above average. 2.) Mobility is above average, but doesn't look particularly difficult to bring down. Not too shifty. 3.) Wears gloves, even in warm weather
I watched the Georgia game and the Alabama game, I could not care less how he plays against cupcakes.
Here are my thoughts:
- Jarvis Landry is pretty good man, haha
Pros: - Strong Arm - Natural Thrower - Tall, not sure his measurable but he is really tall in the pocket. - Good touch as you said.
Cons: - Stiff, slow. He doesn't move very well at all and you'll have to question that even more with the injury he suffered at the end of the season. Twice on that same knee if I'm not mistaken. -Struggles with pressure up the middle badly. If he is not getting all day he struggles, holds the ball. - Georgia was just awful on defense, if you watch that clip, Herbie calls them out for having no idea what they were doing on defense on at least three occasions. He doesn't recognize them and stays with his primary. - Does not throw as well on the run. - For as strong as his arm his, I was not impressed with his deep throws. - Throws way too many passes to guys who are covered. Doesn't seem to grasp the difference between covered and trying to throw them open.
Side notes:
My god, Georgia's defense is horrendous. I see nothing has changed with Todd Grantham.
Alabama had him rattled all day. He could have easily threw two maybe three interceptions, two flat out drops by Bama defenders.
He got sacked 4 straight times at the end of the Bama game and the last one he tore up his knee. God he looked like Brandon Weeden...
I think Cam Cameron did a pretty good job making his reads easy.
Overall, he can certainly throw the football. I'm not seeing much else though, nothing grabs me. I very well could be biased being that we just had a tall, rocket arm stiff, who couldn't reach coverage in Brandon Weeden. Mettenberger has more touch, but he should be a late day two pick at best unless he wows someone at his pro day.
Ok, well - this didn't quite take off.... oh well - I'll give it another couple tries over the next few days, and see if anybody else becomes interested.
Idid my throw-by-throw take on this game (for both QBs actually, too). If anybody cares I will post what I saw. There were two plays that probably won't show up in this where he allows the play to be a run right into the 8th man in the box and doesn't switch out of the play in this game.
Quote: Idid my throw-by-throw take on this game (for both QBs actually, too). If anybody cares I will post what I saw. There were two plays that probably won't show up in this where he allows the play to be a run right into the 8th man in the box and doesn't switch out of the play in this game.
Definitely post it up - the hope is that we get lots of comments on the same game film from different people.
Quote: Idid my throw-by-throw take on this game (for both QBs actually, too). If anybody cares I will post what I saw. There were two plays that probably won't show up in this where he allows the play to be a run right into the 8th man in the box and doesn't switch out of the play in this game.
yes, please post.. love to see what you think of my hometown boy - Petty
Quote: Ok, well - this didn't quite take off.... oh well - I'll give it another couple tries over the next few days, and see if anybody else becomes interested.
I look at that video and aside from his size, I cannot even fathom how that guy is considered a top 5 pick. It makes me think we might actually be forced to trade up for Manziel if we want him because that guy isn't, shouldn't be a top 5 pick.
He had two good throws the entire game. The corner end zone throw and a throw over the ILB near the end of the game. He overthrew guys, he under threw guys, he threw off his back foot, he threw across his body, across field. He threw into coverage consistently and his big plays came off WR screens.
He is athletic, he is tall but that's it. He looks like a more mechanically sound Tim Tebow.
Quote: I look at that video and aside from his size, I cannot even fathom how that guy is considered a top 5 pick. It makes me think we might actually be forced to trade up for Manziel if we want him because that guy isn't, shouldn't be a top 5 pick.
He had two good throws the entire game. The corner end zone throw and a throw over the ILB near the end of the game. He overthrew guys, he under threw guys, he threw off his back foot, he threw across his body, across field. He threw into coverage consistently and his big plays came off WR screens.
He is athletic, he is tall but that's it. He looks like a more mechanically sound Tim Tebow.
I agree with most of this, though he seems to me more like Cam Newton coming out without the arm strength. Or the charisma.
Quote: Ok, well - this didn't quite take off.... oh well - I'll give it another couple tries over the next few days, and see if anybody else becomes interested.
I look at that video and aside from his size, I cannot even fathom how that guy is considered a top 5 pick. It makes me think we might actually be forced to trade up for Manziel if we want him because that guy isn't, shouldn't be a top 5 pick.
He had two good throws the entire game. The corner end zone throw and a throw over the ILB near the end of the game. He overthrew guys, he under threw guys, he threw off his back foot, he threw across his body, across field. He threw into coverage consistently and his big plays came off WR screens.
He is athletic, he is tall but that's it. He looks like a more mechanically sound Tim Tebow.
Got to admit i was enamored with Bortles, but as he faced stiffer competition, the shine came off.
Not sure I owuld put him the tebow catagory, but for sure not a top 5
1.) Much more mobile than I'd thought - His running can be quite a weapon, as long as it is used sparingly. Not a Kaepernick or Newton that could run against a defense that knows it's coming though. Is fa irly difficult to bring down in the pocket (last play). 2.) Hits receivers in stride and leads them to targets 3.) Can put fit the ball into tight spaces (2:50) 4.) Excellent timing on Curl and Comeback routes 5.) Very good timing on screens - gets the ball out fast
Con:
1.) Tends to overthrow recievers. This leads to at least one interception. 2.) Accurate is so-so on slants and digs - misses both in front and behind receivers. Does not have the pinpoint accuracy in the intermediate game (like Bridgewater). A saving grace is tha the usually mis ses by throwing in front of receivers, which causes less picks than average. 3.) I don't see a lot of checking down to 2nd/3rd options in this video. He seems to lock on the first target pretty commonly. Additionally, not a ton of pre-snap reads here. He's not nearly as advanced a s Bridgewater in understanding the game.
Other:
1.) Bortles doesn't really throw to receivers, he throws to points. This is great when it means the receiver is catching the ball in stride, it is bad if the receiver had to cut off a route, or a defender undercut a route. It kind of seems like he's being taught to throw to points (which you have to do to be great) - but doesn't quite have a feel for it yet.
2.) The second interception I'd mostly just call unlikely - defender made a great play to get his hands up, and another great play to catch the tip.
3.) The receivers drop a few very catchable ball. A few very nice passes looked bad because of defensive PI.
I already did this on in the "Manzeil tipping point" thread.
30 seconds - NFL throw 1:40 seconds - NFL Throw 2:30 seconds - forget the throw, look how effortlessly he slides away from the pass rush. 8:28 - Fluidity in the pocket 9:00 - excellent timing back shoulder throw, but it is a floater. 9:30 - you just cannot coach that 13:03 - Excellent anticipation and timing throw. 13:30 - Showing he does have adequate arm strength 14:15 - An absolutely beautiful throw, deep and over the shoulder.
No doubt he has things he needs to work on, like throwing off his back foot, which he does very often.
7:50 - he floats one, showing lack of arm strength 8:35 - showing he is often a one read and run QB, he goes to the slot, he does LOOK at the crossing route, that is open, he just tucks and runs. 10:30 - Poor decision making, under thrown, just bad 11:17 - poor accuracy, even on a touchdown throw
General bad: he needs to learn to slide.
He has some work to do, but the other top guys have questions (minus birdgewater) as well and basically every last one of those top 3-4 QB's have played absolutely zero good competition in trash conferences playing cupcakes. Manziel won the Heisman and was a top end player in the best conference in football as a freshman and Sophmore. That is no luck, it's not coincidence.
I see a lot of Russel Wilson in Manziel. They run the read option in Seattle, they move the pocket (spot) for Wilson. I could absolutely see Manziel flourishing in a system like they run in Seattle.
I'm not saying he's "my guy" or anything, I've said I would prefer a top of the draft QB, but I think a lot of people are discrediting how good Manziel is because he's a "sandlot" QB.
Anybody who watches that video and still says that Manziel doesn't have an NFL arm is lying to themselves. Add to that the pocket awareness and mobility and you have a slam dunk first round pick. I haven't studied Bridgewater at all, but there is no doubt in my mind who I want as our first pick in the draft.
Quote: Anybody who watches that video and still says that Manziel doesn't have an NFL arm is lying to themselves. Add to that the pocket awareness and mobility Ÿmd you have a slam dunk first round pick. I haven't studied Bridgewater at all, but there is no doubt in my mind who I want as our first pick in the draft.
Quote: It certainly isn't a rocket, but it's adequate.
I agree. There are a few successful QBs currently in the NFL that have similar arms (Alex Smith, Drew Brees, and late career Peyton Manning come to mind).
1.) Dual threat QB who can get first downs with his legs on designed runs. Sneaky runner who is hard to see behind the offensive line, and can get out of the backfield with ease on sneaks. 2.) Throws a very nice Fade route into the corner. Can loft the ball over the CB effectively and drop it into the receivers lap. He is sometimes a yard behind where you want the ball - but th is might be an adjustment for Evans, who is not fast - but can go up and get the ball. This is by far his best pass as it projects to the NFL. 3.) Excellent accuracy while on the move - probably his most elite skill. 4.) Though his arm strength is subaverage - he is able to maintain it while on the run 5.) Is able to throw the ball to uncovered areas of covered receivers (i.e. low across the middle when the ball needs to go low). 6.) When the play breaks down, he has a very good ability to find open receivers on the field. However he does occasionally tuck it and run too early. 7.) 1:40 is probably his best throw of the game.
Con:
1.) The most dangerous runner of the group - small frame, and doesn't get down when he should. I don't think a lot of his designed scrambles really work in the NFL, like they do in college. 2.) Arm strength is below average for an starting NFL QB. There aren't a lot of weak arm guys left out there. Does not have the arm strength to thread the ball through a needle in the middle of the field. Leads to an interception at 10:00. 3.) Makes some ill-advised throws (even if they work out for him) e.g. 5:45 4.) His touch on short loft passes (out routes) not nearly as crisp as the fades. 5.) Does not make good progressions on his reads while in the pocket - but does know where receivers are when he is on the run, can hit the check down receivers later.
Other:
1.) More of a sneaky runner than fast. I expect around a 4.6 at the Combine - but he is a small strider and elusive. 2.) He's going to win you some NFL games -- but he's also going to lose you a few with risky choices. 3.) He's more NFL ready than Bortles at the moment (not near as ready as Bridgewater) -- but at the moment the only plus pass in his arsenal is the fade. He doesn't throw a full tree, and I think there are some NFL passes (the 10 yard out) which will always be inaccessible to him due to arm strength.
Quote: 30 seconds - NFL throw 1:40 seconds - NFL Throw 2:30 seconds - forget the throw, look how effortlessly he slides away from the pass rush. 8:28 - Fluidity in the pocket 9:00 - excellent timing back shoulder throw, but it is a floater. 9:30 - you just cannot coach that 13:03 - Excellent anticipation and timing throw. 13:30 - Showing he does have adequate arm strength 14:15 - An absolutely beautiful throw, deep and over the shoulder.
I think it's interesting how biased his "great throws" are towards the fade route -- I agree with you that those are his best throws of the game. He is really able to drop the floater into a receiver.
I think it's clear you need to pair him with receivers who can go up and get the deep ball (Luckily we have one -- and two kind of, since if Little is good at anything, that's probably it).
I already did this on in the "Manzeil tipping point" thread.
30 seconds - NFL throw 1:40 seconds - NFL Throw
I only got this far into watching it before I have to throw the BS flag.
There are two throws in that first 30 seconds - and BOTH are guaranteed INT's in the NFL. That throw at 1:40? The guy is streaking wide open. Even Weeden makes that throw (see Gordon's numbers).
I might look more later, but so far I don't see anything that stands out.
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
I already did this on in the "Manzeil tipping point" thread.
30 seconds - NFL throw 1:40 seconds - NFL Throw
I only got this far into watching it before I have to throw the BS flag.
There are two throws in that first 30 seconds - and BOTH are guaranteed INT's in the NFL. That throw at 1:40? The guy is streaking wide open. Even Weeden makes that throw (see Gordon's numbers).
I might look more later, but so far I don't see anything that stands out.
He had two steps on the corner and he put it in between the Safety and the corner 20+ yards down the field. That's what you're supposed to do, hit him right on the numbers. Not sure how that's a bad thing? I have no idea how you think that is a guaranteed interception...
Weeden makes that throw? What games have you been watching? Weeden overthrows him out of bounds, or underthrows him for a pick.
Actually no, Weeden doesn't see him getting open or holds the ball and gets sacked.
I agree, it's a good throw - maybe even a great throw.
I'm just not seeing many great throws across the middle.
Gordon's best route by far is the slant. When he can get the ball in stride and with momentum, he's a threat to take it all the way every time. I want to make sure that my QB can throw that.
I'm not really in tune with the Philosophy or the other players (aside from Evans) on A&M's offense. Maybe they don't have a good tight end? They just don't want to run crossing routes?
Manziel isn't even "my guy", I'd prefer Bridgewater and I have loved Aaron Murray the most out of any of the QB's. Murrays command, his quick release, his ability to throw and understand when to throw the back shoulder passes is better than any QB in college football.
If Murray were 6'4 230lbs he would be the consensus #1 overall pick without question in my mind.
Go watch Aaron Murray in the LSU game and tell me you don't come away impressed. A 4 year starter, who put up great numbers in the SEC as a pocket passer.
One of the things I don’t like about these videos, is especially for the QB’s, you don’t see the line adjustments. I know for a fact that Carr had a very good grasp of the offense and one of his major plus points is that he has been known to get everyone in their correct psotions and lead the players.
Initially, I see a lot of screens.
At 3:42 – that is an interception if the ball is where it’s supposed to be, likely a touchdown the other way. At 4:30 – very Brandon Weedenish, ugh that’s frustrating to see.
Pros:
- Arm Strength - Command of the offense, getting his guys into to good matchups and anticipates his throws. - More mobile than his size would suggest. -
Cons: - Erractic in the pocket, jumpy, mechanics break down with pressure in his face. - He must have missed 4 or 5 guys streaking down the field wide open. - Accuracy just terrible - Consistently broke down his mechanics with pressure. - Screens on screens on screens. They ran more quick and bubble screens than I can ever remember seeing from a QB that is supposed to be a first round talent. -
Other: - His WR’s were out matched badly by the talent on SC. They rarely got separation and when they did, Carr missed them. - It’s hard to gauge him based on this video because of how badly they were out matched, talent wise.
If I had to grade him, I’d say he is a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Looks like a Matt Schaub type guy to me.
Quote: Consistently broke down his mechanics with pressure.
this is the big one for me. he actually had a couple nice throws with terrible mechanics because his arm is so strong, but he missed alot of throws elsewhere because he doesn't just sit in the pocket and deliver the ball under pressure.
Quote: - Screens on screens on screens. They ran more quick and bubble screens than I can ever remember seeing from a QB that is supposed to be a first round talent.
The screens were Fresno State's running game. They ran the ball 6(!) times that game and threw it 54 times IIRC.
Derek Carr completed more passes than all but 12 QBs in FBS attempted this year.
What is the point of me saying this?
The "knock" on him throwing a lot of screens is ill-placed, because he still threw a LOT of real passes in addition to the screens.
Also, for as bad of a pocket presence as people say he has, he only took 11 sacks with 659 pass attempts. That's a great ratio... one of the best in college football. Even if you drop 200 of those pass attempts for screens, it's still an excellent ratio... significantly better than Bridgewater, Manziel, and Bortles.
Like vers and others have said many times on here, it's hard to evaluate college QBs... even harder to compare them because their systems are so different.
While I understand the want to evaluate him against his best competition, why not evaluate him on a game he wasn't playing with an injured shoulder?
Quote: Also, while I understand the want to evaluate him against his best competition, why not evaluate him on a game he wasn't playing with an injured shoulder?
Ah - I wasn't aware of this -- my bad. I've just been looking for the best defense he faces. I'm trying not to watch the video before posting it, because I don't want to bias it towards the "best" or "worst" videos of guys I tend to like.
Carr is going to get a second look at the end of next week - I'll make sure to check in a video where he wasn't hurt.
Quote: Also, while I understand the want to evaluate him against his best competition, why not evaluate him on a game he wasn't playing with an injured shoulder?
Ah - I wasn't aware of this -- my bad. I've just been looking for the best defense he faces. I'm trying not to watch the video before posting it, because I don't want to bias it towards the "best" or "worst" videos of guys I tend to like.
Carr is going to get a second look at the end of next week - I'll make sure to check in a video where he wasn't hurt.
It happened on the 11th pass play (at least that was what I had written down) when he got hit by Uko (I think it was Uko) up the middle. Not sure if this cut-up indicates that. Just an FYI. It was towards the end of the first quarter.
Utah State was the only other good defense he faced besides USC. So, perhaps we can use that cut-up? all the other defenses were ranked in the 60s at best (SD-State and Boise-State)
It was also his non throwing shoulder and his breakdown in his footwork really has nothing to do with his shoulder. I guess you could argue it affected his deep ball...
Pros: - First flow is a very nice fade route - Does a good job with the bullet pass to the back shoulder -- overall, can really exploit 1:1 matchups by throwin gto the back shoulder. Dangerous against man coverage. - Best throws are probably out and comeback - Good anticipation on the screens and short passes, gets the ball out quickyl and within rhythm
Cons: - Misses passes that QB needs to make consistently (you gotta be hitting on 90% of the short ones). This is especially true on balls that need touch -- he is pretty accurate when he can gun i t into a receiver. The inaccruacy is mostly when he needs to throw to a space. - Really, just terrible accuracy on loft passes deep - I think he goes like 0-10, mostly with wide open receivers (one was WR drop though). - Really dangerous pass at 3:45 - The near interception at 9:30 is also a bad throw - comes out too late. Not a bad idea to give your receiver a 1:1 though.
Other: - Not sure if the interception in the endzone is a miscommunication or a terrible throw - Somebody on here said there was a lot of check-downs. I see almost no checkdowns (even when under a lot of pressure). There are a lot of designed screens and quick outs (likely because the USC DL was dominant). But that is the OC, not carr.
hadn't a chance to sit down and spend the time to review. Possibly a dawg are two can advise their evaluation of the following.
1. release point from pocket situation - Shoulder or higher, Below the shoulder.
2. Processing the pre-snap decisions and release of the ball (under 3 seconds preferred)
3. Locking onto WRs or Locking onto the Safety/LB for a key read?
4. Footwork and progression is there a new set up for each progression?
5. Accuracy not just completing passes but hitting the proper back shoulder to protect the WR and/or hitting the WR in the hands for maximum YAC...especially checkdowns with RB/FB or TE
6. Velocity of passes over 15 yards and outside the hashes?
7. Ability to move laterally within the pocket to gain time and keep good footwork.
8. Deep drops and not too many hitch steps.
9 Ability to throw when the pocket breaks down by rolling right and left.
Leadership and the IT factor hard to assess you either see it or you don't
big hands and tight spirals are interesting as well although the later can be taught.
Defense wins championships. Watson play your butt off! Go Browns! CHRIST HAS RISEN! GM Strong! & Stay safe everyone!
My layman's POV on Mettenberger: he's a mess. He showed a strong arm on a deep out, but also underthrew an open receiver on a bomb. He has no wherewithal to deal with a pass rush - very poor mobility. Seems to throw a lot into coverage, and in fact, does not seem to recognize that guys are not open at all. His size, slowness afoot, and "DOH!" passes remind me of Derek Anderson, minus the howitzer. Do not want.
Pros: 1.) :26 is a beautifully thrown ball 2.) Good ball velocity at 1:35 despite pressure in his face 3.) Shows good timing with receivers, back door pass at 3:00 4.) Beautiful Throw to a coered receiver at 4:50 5.) He probably has the best arm talent I've seen yet. Great velocity, and good touch on passes. Accurate on all parts of the field.
Con: 1.) Tries to make a physically impossible throw at 3:25, almost causes a pick (trusts arm strength a bit too much?) 2.) Misses behind on a post at 5:20, which is basically unforgivable, should have been picked 3.) He checks down more than I'd like - he's facing a great defense and its hard to tell if he needs to without seeing the routes. But there are a lot of 3 yard check downs. Particularly bad is at 5:40, w hen it's 3rd and 7 and he goes for the 4 yard drag across the middle. It looks like the TE would have gotten open for the first down in about a half second. OTOH, this does secure them in FG range. 4.) Stands strong in the pocket, but has almost no mobility 5.) 6:50 is another dangerous throw of overconfidence -- not a QB in the league who could fit the ball in there 6.) Not a quick decision maker - this is probably his biggest negative. He gets rattled by pressure, and doesn't quickly get the ball to hot receivers.
Other:
1.) No clue whos fault the center to QB exchange was at 1:00.... mettenberger obviously wasn't expecting the ball. 2.) Will hold the ball until the last second, ala Roethlisberger -- good because he makes places, bad because he takes hits ~ ~
1.) Does the little things - looks defenders off with his eyes. Moves through progressions quickly. 2.) Quick decisions evident at 11:15 - key play on 4th and 2. Gets to the 2nd read on a three step drop. Ball is out in about 2.0 seconds 3.) Ball comes out of his hand very quickly - and with a lot of velocity given how small the motion is.
Cons:
1.) Has a compact delivery, which is nice - but the ball comes out very low (around ear height) leads to tips (and an Int in this game) 2.) Accuracy on touch passes average at best, makes receivers adjust quite a bit to the ball, often throws behind the WR into the CB 3.) Bad decision at 11:45 - but one of the few bad decisions overall 4.) Not going to be much of a threat with his legs - not a rock like Mettenberger, but is a pocket QB.
Other:
1.) Overall - wow.... Murray was kind of an afterthought in my QB evaluation thing here. But I came away really impressed. Accuracy is about average, arm strength is above average. But from this tape, he was the most polished QB outside of Bridgewater. Goes through very good, NFL quality progressions, looks off defenders. For a guy you could probably get in the third round, he's got a lot of skill.
