DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Why the NFL Has a Quarterback Crisis

Why the NFL Has a Quarterback Crisis

Since the dawn of the NFL, head coaches and general managers have been calling top college quarterback prospects into conference rooms to pepper them with rudimentary questions: how to attack a certain defense, for instance, or what to do when a play breaks down. The answers were sometimes dull and sometimes brilliant, but there were always answers.

This year, according to separate interviews with dozens of NFL coaches and executives, something disturbing happened in these pre-draft quiz sessions. When asked the same basic questions, many quarterback prospects responded with something NFL insiders said they have never seen before: blank stares.

Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said the new crop of college quarterbacks were flummoxed by a simple question about an “under” front, one of the most common defensive alignments. “Whoa, no one’s ever told me ‘front’ before,” he remembers one prospect saying. “No one’s ever talked to me about reading these defenses.”

Buffalo Bills general manager Doug Whaley said he had the same results when he asked prospects a question about defenses shifting from a common scheme called “cover 2” to an equally mundane tactic called “cover 3.” Hue Jackson, the offensive coordinator from the Bengals, said he had to dumb down his questions, while Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton said some QBs failed to grasp things as basic as understanding a common play call. “You have to teach these kids the absolute basics,” he said.

The knowledge base was so low, Buffalo’s Whaley said, that it left him feeling “a little nervous about the long-term future of this game.”

As the 2015 NFL season begins, the league’s decision makers say they are daunted by what they see as a widening gulf between the college game and the pro game, one that has existed for a while but is now starting to affect the quality of the league’s most-cherished commodity: Quarterbacks. The kinds of passers the NFL thrives on are those who can survey the field before the snap to “read” the defense and make any necessary adjustments, then drop back and dissect the coverage again, picking through a number of passing options to find the open receiver.

For years, this brand of preparation has been regenerated from Joe Montana to Tom Brady to relative newcomers like Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts. Spoiled by their immense talent and football intelligence, the NFL has organized itself around quarterbacks to the point where it is hard to imagine the sport without them. The five most productive individual passing seasons in history have happened since 2011.

But if current trends continue, NFL insiders say, quarterbacks who have the sophistication to outfox NFL defenses to deliver the ball to open receivers are “going to be on the endangered species list,” said Cleveland Browns coach Mike Pettine. “The quarterback may not be gone yet,” he added, “but if you have one, protect it.”

“It’s doomsday if we don’t adapt and evolve,” said St. Louis Rams general manager Les Snead.

In the last decade, many college football teams have embraced a form of offense that runs at a furious tempo with no breaks for huddles, the goal being to grind down and exhaust the defense. Teams that play this way don’t bother trying to fool their opponents with complex schemes and trickery, they just bull forward as fast as they can. College defenses have been forced to adapt to this “hurry-up” mode by simplifying their fronts and coverage packages to help the players keep pace. The learning curve, at the NFL level, NFL people say, is so massive that it’s hard to overcome for all but the best college quarterbacks.

The trouble with this trend, NFL experts say, is that many of the players coming from the college ranks have spent their entire careers playing in this high-throttle system, which is completely different from the slower, deliberate and more complex nature of the NFL. When they come to the NFL, it’s as if they’re being told to stop playing speed checkers and start playing chess. And the NFL, which doesn’t have a minor league of its own, has no influence over college coaches. “They don’t coach anything,” said Rex Ryan, the head coach of the Buffalo Bills, when discussing college defenses.

At Baylor, quarterback Bryce Petty was one of the most prolific passers in the country. He led the Bears to two conference championships in his last two seasons on campus and holds 31 Baylor passing records and has the lowest percentage of interceptions per pass in NCAA history.

But NFL teams were wary of Petty. Because Baylor played a “spread” offense that forced defenses to fan out across the field, making them unable to disguise anything, many scouts worried he would struggle to master the NFL game. He had to wait until the 103rd pick before the New York Jets scooped him up. Petty said he was “upset and frustrated that I was thrown away like I couldn’t learn it,” he said. “I’m like ‘you’ve got to give me a chance a little bit.’”

Petty admits to grappling with tasks such as hearing and calling the play, identifying defensive backs in coverage and identifying which player in the defensive backfield was the “mike” linebacker, the central part of the defense whose location teams base their offensive line protections on. “As crazy as it sounds, at Baylor, we did not point out the ‘mike’ linebacker,” Petty said.

Petty was unfamiliar with making adjustments to the play or the formation before the snap.

“Honestly, I wish I’d done a little bit more as far as being proactive to get into a pro style [offense],” he said, singling out the need to decipher fronts or coverages. “It was things I have never seen before.”

Exactly 101 picks earlier, another quarterback from a spread offense was selected. Marcus Mariota, who won the Heisman Trophy while leading the Oregon Ducks to the national championship game last season, was taken with the second overall pick by the Tennessee Titans. Mariota can run as well as pass, but NFL teams worried about his ability to translate to the pro game. Titans general manager Ruston Webster defended Mariota and the Oregon offense and said they used NFL principles—like the quarterback reading multiple receivers on a play or him staying “in the pocket”—the area behind the offensive line—“more than what people realized. It gave us confidence.”

A parade of general managers, like Pittsburgh’s Kevin Colbert, think that if the current model holds, the notion of drafting a quarterback to start right away will need to scrapped.

NFL officials agree that the new wave of quarterbacks will need more time than previous generations, but some fret that today’s roster limits and time constraints may prevent them from getting the time they need to learn or develop. “It might become like major league baseball now, where you take a guy that you think will be able to play in three, four, five years,” said Pettine.

Even that can be hard. One general manager admitted that he’s having trouble finding a young quarterback to keep on the roster whose lack of knowledge of the pro game won’t frustrate his team’s established starter.

In NFL facilities across the country, the race to figure out what works is on. “It’s on us to adapt, I don’t think any of us want this thing to crash,” said the Rams’ Snead.

Cleveland’s Farmer has one idea: What if you could design an offense to minimize the passing deficiencies of modern quarterback prospects? Farmer used the example of Auburn’s Nick Marshall, who threw 20 touchdowns last season but was projected to transition to defensive back in the NFL. What if, Farmer said, you devoted resources to designing an offense where Marshall could thrive? He would cost you almost nothing—Marshall went undrafted—and “you might get your franchise quarterback in the later rounds, and that’s unheard of these days.”

“Whoever cracks this code the soonest is going to have a huge, huge advantage,” Farmer said, adding he and his coach, Pettine, have had broad discussions on the topic.

Indeed, Snead has similar thoughts. He recalled the brilliance behind the “Cover 2” or “Tampa 2” defenses, popularized first by the Pittsburgh Steelers of the 1970s then refined by multiple teams in the 1990s, which minimized the importance of “cover” cornerbacks, who could lock up wide receivers in man-to-man coverage and are expensive and hard to find. Snead said the race is on to find a similar strategy that minimizes the importance of the quarterback. “The person who makes the quarterback like they made the cornerback will be a name that will be remembered forever,” Snead said. “But it will take courage to do it.”

NFL coaches are still trying to figure out which elements of the college innovations can be used in the NFL. One issue is that NFL rules prohibit teams from snapping the ball as quickly after plays, meaning they cannot run a pure uptempo offense. Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase singled out Philadelphia Eagles coach Chip Kelly, a former Oregon coach, as bringing positive elements of the spread to the pros. “They do a good job and they haven’t sold out to the scheme and most importantly their quarterbacks don’t take huge hits,” Gase said. “The quarterback position is so valuable you want to adapt to their strengths, they do that.”

For his part, Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley sees an altogether bleaker future for teams searching for a quarterback. “You do not want to be in the top five pickers in the draft, you really don’t,” Haley said. “Guys are going to get fired. General managers, coaches, they’re going to go because it’s just guessing. It’s harder than ever to find a quarterback.”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-nfl-has-a-quarterback-crisis-1441819454

I thought it was an interesting read.

Sounds about right. It'll be interesting to see how things evolve in the next 5 years.

Sounds like coaches will to need to coach. While distressing to some, I'm sure, there is a solution: teach them the concepts. What other choice do they have? Throw up their hands and blubber, "There are no more quarterbacks to play in the NFL!" It's not the college coaches jobs to teach NFL concepts. It's their jobs to win college games. If the NFL GMs and coaches want players well versed in their concepts, they'll have to spend time teaching them. In the mean time, they will have to grade on a different scale, like ability, accuracy and leadership.

JMHO

yea.... pretty simple really.

Therein lies the problem though, the NFL is a NOW league. And most FOs and coaching staffs aren't given the time to teach your future franchise QB from scratch.

It is definitely a problem, one that will take time to figure out and solve in a manner that works for all involved.

does it really matter for us? maybe in 10 years everybody will be in the same shape we have since the return?







Factory of Sadness: The Cleveland Browns quarterback misery matrix (DIAGRAM)

http://www.foxsports.com/buzzer/story/cleveland-browns-quarterbacks-misery-matrix-diagram-090915

It appears that this is what the Browns are doing with Manziel ..... building him pretty much from the ground up.

For some reason I just knew a comment like this was going to crop up after reading this article.

But yeah, the Browns knew he'd tank for a year not working hard, not studying and partying his way to rehab. That was the plan all along!

They'll have to make time. Remember when QB's used to sit behind the starters? Look at Bryce Petty. Look at EJ Manuel. Look what it did for Rogers. Maybe it's time to return to a journeyman system.

brian sipe???

He doesn't count because he was actually in the era when QBs did sit and learn.

BTW- My all-time favorite Browns QB since I started rooting for them.

I agree, but in most cases there is an establish QB for them to learn under. We have yet to solidify that position so that we could afford that luxury.

Yeah, it sure ain't gonna start with us...lol. If and when we do draft a franchise QB, he will start that season and learn from trial by fire.

and when there is not? like flacko and big ben and dalton? what did they do? run game and defense. the problem is we only have a small, slow, recovering drug addict with a bad arm since high school to develope this year.

I agree with the premise. Many, if not most, QBs need to sit. Especially if they are not being taught the basics in college.

This will only get worse as the spread offenses get more advanced. College coaches will always prioritize winning over getting their players ready for the pros (ideally they would do both). Spread offenses are how teams win in college right now. I assume at some point the pendulum will swing back to the pro style systems.

I'm not sure what your point is with Petty and Manuel, what are we supposed to look at with them?

It's comments such as this one that makes me think that Farmer has no clue about the quarterback position.

Tell us why those comments are wrong, in your opinion.

I hate the spread offense. I hate everything about it. Much like I hated the wish bone back in the day. But, with the majority of high school teams in America playing some form of the spread and more and more colleges every year going that direction this line of thinking has some validity.

It looks like Urban Meyer is starting to build a true dynasty with the spread. It can and probably will change the game. The true pocket passer that pre reads defenses before the snap will eventually go by the waste side.

With that said I hope I am wrong. I love college football. I love the NFL. Heck, I just love the game of football. I played the game in a Woody Hayes Wing T offense. I love the art of the running game. Angles, deception, point of attack, etc... That was football at one time. It has changed dramatically to a more verticle, timing, precision passing game. How did that happen when 7 on 7's became the way to practice and play in the offseason.

With high school and college transitioning to the wide open spread it will ultimately change the game even at the NFL level some day.

Spread offenses don't work in the NFL. Even the Read/option plays, which had some initial success, were soon figured out and the teams that ran saw their qbs take a beating. Same thing w/the wildcat. It's okay as a change of pace, you know, once every 3 or 4 games, but running it play in and play out would be ignorant.

The NFL defenses are way too fast. They are very sophisticated. They have multiple fronts and coverages. They might give you a Cover 1 look pre-snap, but then switch to a Cover 3.

I could go on, but not sure anyone is really reading. They'll just be looking for a reason to pounce because I said Farmer made a stupid comment.

Nick Marshall? Really? Anyone ever watch him play?

People mock the Wing T, but the blocking schemes in that offense are actually very sophisticated and are similar to the ZBS that is run in the pros.

I am not sure this is true. The Eagles and Chip Kelly run the spread offense. In Kelly's first year they ranked fourth in points and second in yards, they also won ten games. Last year they ranked third in points and fifth in yards, they won ten games again.

Also, the QBs Kelly has used have not been all that great. Foles (who Kelly traded), Vick, and Sanchez have been the starters under Kelly.

I agree with you 100% on this part of your post.

I've felt this way since people started saying the spread or read option was the future of the NFL. It wasn't. It's not. And, it won't be.

Look at the top qb's: Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, Brady. They are passing qb's, first and foremost.

Is the spread offence really that much different from the hurry-up Buffalo used to great success back in the Jim Kelly era?

J/C

The answer is the team or teams that just take the QBs given to them and run systems that fit their skills will crack the code.


I said this 10 years ago, and now NFL execs are talking about no QB's.


Guys, there are dozens of them if you go with what is given to you. The NFL is going to have to adapt because high schools and colleges aren't. They get guys for 3-4 years. They aren't going to try to teach a NFL system QB that has never been taught that way. That doesn't win in modern college football anymore.

Urban Meyer isn't going to throw out the spread because he needs to develop a NFL drop back QB. He wants to win now.

If the NFL insists on playing a 1960's type game at the QB position, maybe they need to run a minor league system. Baseball doesn't allow colleges to train the best players. Baseball signs them, pays them, and trains them the way they want to develop them. Pony up or STFU. Steve Suprrier or Urban Meyer don't care what the NFL wants. They care about that the University and fans of said University want, and thats winning college football games.

The spread does not require a QB that can run. Also, you listed Wilson, who is one of the only QBs that has successfully pulled off running the read option.

All I know is that Nick Saban's defenses have dominated college football. He brought NFL style defense to college. Then came the spread offense and the defense that dominated college footabll to the tune of 4 natioanl titles in a decade cannot hold a spread offense to under 30 points. See Auburn,see Texas A&M, see Ohio State, etc...

So in a theory if an NFL style defense with multiple future NFL players struggle so much with that offense. What if an NFL coach commits to it and has the offensive weapons to run it? That will be the hard part since teams have to draft and cannot simply recruit their players.

All I am saying is if that is what players are now playing from youth to adulthood. Thus game could look much much different in the not so near future.

That was a nice read Memphis...

I just can't wait till the NFL makes this sport a team sport again...

IMO.. way to much emphasis on a single player.. the QB.

I actually enjoyed watching the Williams sisters player last night..

It was a one on one competition... not a team effort with focusing on one player.

I love the Browns for the 53 roster..sure in the heck not the QB position

Yes.

Dude, you "liked" your own post?

Yes, you got me. The spread doesn't require a qb that can run.

As for Wilson - is he a read option qb that can pass? Or is he a passing qb that can run if need be?

I would say the Air Raid is a type of spread offense.

Yeah, I was hoping no one noticed that. I meant to like Ballpeen's post, it was directly above mine. The problem has been corrected.

Old time thinking. What the NFL needs to come to grips with is the QB position will become a throw away position kind of like RB has become a throw away position.

Play them for 2-3-4-5-6 years and plug in another.

Owners should like that. Coaches will become the keeper position as it is in the college game. A college coach purges the roster every 4-5 years. The guys that figure it out will coach for decades. The coach that tries to teach NFL type skills ends up with a short career. They can't keep a top recruit on the bench 2-3 years.

He's both. That's what makes him so great.

The problem with that is that coaches usually specialize in only one system. Jack of all trades master of none. We saw this with Shanahan and RGIII in Washington. They tried to run the read option with RGIII and while it was successful for awhile he got killed. When they were forced to adjust (because of injuries) they died.

The answer is to have a system that every QB fits in (like Chip Kelly in Philadelphia).

LOL............you just wanted to disagree, right. I have no problem w/that, but why bother making me post my thoughts if you won't even consider them?

Chip Kelly does nor run a Spread offense in the NFL. He has aspects of it, but it is not a true spread. Also, what has he won w/all that talent?

Besides, you are turning this around. Read what Farmer said again. NFL teams could very well hire Spread coaches to come into the NFL.

If anyone thinks that you are going to win w/a qb who can't read defenses pre-snap and coverages post-snap.....they are in for a rude awakening.

I will say that what Farmer said is a great indicator of why he took Manziel over Bridgewater.

I don't disagree. A NFL coach has to be able to adapt, which they mostly don't.

That is what made Shula a great coach. When he had Johnny U, he threw the ball. When he had Csonka, Morris, and Kick, he ran. When Marino arrived, he threw the ball like a throwing fool.

Don't try to make players they aren't. Ortiz is a DH and or a 1st baseman. Don't insist on him becoming a SS.

I do disagree.

They don't run that crap because it doesn't work against NFL defenses, which are much, much faster and way more sophisticated than college defenses.

If it were as simple as you guys make it sound, NFL owners would simply hire college coaches who run these "innovative" offenses to come in and be their coach.

I think what you guys don't get is that the Spread offense and others like it are far less sophisticated and advanced as professional offenses.

I always love reading the original article when this topic comes up, but it's frustrating reading all of the uniformed posts about how antiquated NFL offenses are. That is so, so, so far from the truth.

So how is a BIG kid like OSU's Jones going to fit into the NFL ?

I do consider them, I would just like to know your point before disagreeing. I was trying to be fair to you.



This is 100% false. This is like saying Bill Walsh only ran elements of the West Coast offense.

http://grantland.com/features/chip-kelly-philadelphia-eagles-nfl-influence/

http://grantland.com/features/the-success-chip-kelly-oregon-ducks-offense-more-familiar-seems/

If you are more interested read this book:

http://www.amazon.com/Art-Smart-Football...=smart+football



I'm not sure the Eagles have had much more talent than any other averagely talented NFL team. But, I would kill to have a top five offense in back-to-back seasons along with twenty wins. If you're asking if he's won a Super Bowl or playoff games, then the answer is no, but he's only been in the league two years.

Just to be clear, I don't think NFL offenses are antiquated. I think they are far more advanced than the college offenses. That is the problem. Teams should simplify offenses for QBs when they come out of college.