DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2016 NFL Season 2016 NFL Draft Post-Draft Predictions

I'm starting this thread because I wanted to post on this forum how I think that, Braxton Miller will be a better WR than Will Fuller. But I couldn't find a Braxton Miller thread on the first page, so I just made this thread instead. Anyone else have some crazy, pie-in-the-sky predictions that they want to proclaim? Think of it this way, if you're right, you can post a link to your prediction here and we all have to bow to admire your intellect or something.

So, Braxton Miller will be the #2 WR and Will Fuller might play his way out of the slot.

Any others?

I predict Myles Jack will light it up and Ogbah will be a bust.

It will haunt us for years

I'll go opposite you on Jack. I'll predict that he is out of the league in 5 years because of the knee.

The bad thing is that this forum will be long gone by the time we have the answers. The other bad thing is that people get mad if you bring up who was right and who was not. Wait, maybe that is a good thing.

I predict Zeke will win rookie of the year.

Arik Armstead and Deforest Buckner will team up to be a to give SF a solid d-line.

Clara Peller (Where's the beef?) could win ROY running behind that Oline...

Johnny Manziel will be out of the league for two years or so, and come back to lead the Jets to a Super Bowl...(well, you asked and I foretold).

That's a no brainer, as long as he doesn't get hurt.

I kind of feel that Jack was overrated. He has a ton of speed, and potential as a cover LB, but I felt that he had more willingness to attack the LOS when he played RB than he did as a LB. Don't get me wrong, I think that he'll be a good to very good cover LB, but not the all around amazing LB some think he'll be.

Does that mean I am not allowed to predict it?

Okay............I'll make another one. Other rookies will play well while Browns fans will be saying "it takes three years in order to judge a draft class."

That might be a bigger no-brainer.

It wasn't an insult. It was just a statement that he is in the perfect place for his talent to really shine. He goes to a team with a great run blocking OL, and a great QB who will make sure that teams cannot stack the line against them. I think that Elliot might be more talented than DeMarco Murray, and like him, Elliot doesn't have to come off the field, ever.

I think that he is a sure fire top contender for NFC offensive rookie of the year.

I didn't take it as an insult. It's cool, YTown.

Who do you think will be defensive rookie of the year?

Mackenzie Alexander will be the highest graded of the top CBs

Myles Jack.

His career ending knee surgery won't happen till 2017.

Man, I hate picking 2 guys so near the top of the draft, but I think that this draft has a lot of defensive players who could grab the award, but I am going to go with another high draft pick ....

I am not sure which one though.

I love the fit for Ramsey in Jacksonville. I think that he is a hugely talented kid, and he is one of my top 2 contenders.

I like 2 other defenders in this draft a lot, but I wonder whether their teams can win enough to justify them winning such an award. One if Deforest Bunkner in Frisco, and the other is our very own Emmanuel Ogbah. I think that both guys will have huge impacts on their respective defenses, but I question whether the rest of their teams are ready to win enough games to get people to vote for them, even in an individual category.

So, I am going to go with Ramsey. I think that he is in the right situation, on a team that is ready to take some big steps forward this year. They made sme nice additions on defense, and they should get back Marks, who was a big part of their pass rush in 2014. They also added our former FS to their defense, along with others who will improve that defense a great deal.

I do think that Ogbah is going to be a force this year, though. He'll be one of the runners up.

Good post.

I am going this way:

--Bosa is my favorite. A pass rusher is going to garner a lot more attention than a corner. Bosa was underrated by many people on this board. They wanted us to pass on him at 8. LOL

--Ramsey would be my next choice. It's tough for a corner to win this award, but this guy might get moved around and might be put into position to make a lot of plays.

--My sleeper is Noah Spence. No pass rusher in the draft is better at rushing the passer than Spence.

Two more sleepers who won't win, but will get some consideration: Rankins for the Saints and Nkemdiche for Arizona.

Both guys appear to be excellent fits with their teams.

I am going to go Homer again with my sleeper pick, and say Carl Nassib. The guy led the nation in sacks last year, and had at least 1 sack in every game, so he didn't just load up against weaker opposition.

I really like our draft. I think that we got some real talent.

I would like to see this 5-man line at least once to see what happens.

Kruger-Nassib-Cooper-Bryant-Ogbah

Purely my gut talking here but I predict that this Browns draft will be the best we've had in years. I also predict that things begin to change with this new regime.

We will lose badly this year, but the next draft and next season we will start to see the dividends.

Corey Coleman will have 70 receptions 1000 yards

Ogbah will have 7 sacks & 15 hurries 10 QB hits

Nassib will have 3 sacks & 10 hurries 5 QB hits

Shon Coleman will start 11 games at RT

Joe Shobert will start 6 games at ILB 55 tackles 3 sacks

Ricardo Louis will have 30 receptions and 17 ypc

Payton+Higgin together will have 50 receptions

I think he will too. Behind that Dallas line only an injury might keep him from it....

Schobert starts the year at ILB beside Kirksey.
Scooby Wright not only makes the team but plays snaps on defense as well as special teams.

Scooby Wright ends up ILB starter opposite of Davis...defense takes a big step up. TE GB has another great year, O-line will be top 15 (at some point have to predict over the top). the Crow has a break out year. With Gary B. having another great year, Cory WR will benefit and have a good rookie showing.

anywho my predictions...

I predict that baring injury, all 14 dtaft picks will make the team.

Of the 11 UDFA's
Matthews
Craddock
Skov
Stample

Will all also make the 53 man roster. (Alexander, Howard and Dennis will make the PS).

Gilbert wil be waived and clear waivers, without being claimed.

RG3 will miss 4-6 weeks due to injury. (No I don't wish it on him).

I think (hope) Ricardo Lewis becomes a starter for the Browns.

Hope I'm wrong on this one, but I also think Emmanuel Ogbah will be a bust.

I think Zeke is consensus to win ROY. I expect him to rush for 1300 yards.

I think Coleman and Coleman could start every game. Corey to get 10 TDs and 800 yards. Shon to struggle for a while in pass protection but to learn fast.

Ogbah and nassib to get somewhere like 8-10 sacks between them.

I expect Kessler to shine in preseason against other teams 3rd stringers! But to stay on the bench behind RG3 and McCown all year.

I expect to see Duke catch 45+ catches his year.

as someone else said, hoping and predicting this will be the most solid draft for years and years.

By week 4 Shon Coleman is the starting RT.

Crowell rushes for +1,000 yards

Duke has +900 yards, receiving.

Browns defense is top 20 by season's end.

Robert Griffin is "Comeback player of the year"

That would be huge!

Talent only gets you so far, the way the teams use that talent, the position they put them in to succeed all can mean as much as talent.

With that said, yeah, Offensive Rookie is gonna be Zeke. Defensive rookie, man I just don't have any idea. Lots of good ones to choose from.

Well there is a benefit to being a rookie that gets plugged into an established system with quality players around you... but yes, it sure would be nice for one or two of the Browns top picks to start strong and turn some heads.. instead of some stomachs, like they have in the past.

Zero chance of this.

I think he's referring specifically to the 2016 Draft Forum (and not DT in general) which will be archived but not active. I'm not sure if everyone knows how to search the archives.

Ahh, I misinterpreted.

And yes, beginning with last season, all of this will be moved to an archive forum for the 2016 season, just as every GameDay board will.

Since the team uses analytics and we are making predictions, I thought this would be interesting to add. The entire article is here.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/...n/#4cc1162128ea

1) Correlation between Draft Position and “Starter Status”

Using Pro Football Reference as a resource, I looked at all players who were classified as starters at the beginning of the 2014 season to determine what round they were drafted in upon entering the league. Of the 595 players designated as such, the results reveal the following:

Round...Freq....Percent.Cuml
1.......178.....29.9....29.9
2.......104.....17.5....47.4
3.......75......12.6....60.0
4.......64......10.8....70.8
5.......38......6.4.....77.2
6.......29......4.9.....82.0
7.......25......4.2.....86.2
UDA.....81......13.6....99.8
Supp.....1......0.2.....100.0
Total...595.....100

- Nearly 30% of all starters were 1st round draft picks when drafted into the league;

- Roughly 30% were taken in either the 2nd or 3rd round;

- Roughly 26% were taken in either rounds 4 through 7;

- Undrafted players (14%) were the 3rd most likely group to comprise 2014’s starters…only behind 1st round (30%) and 2nd round (18%) picks.

2) Correlation between Draft Position and Staying Power

Given that the average career length is only 3.3 years, this begs the question of how much more likely are higher draft picks to stick around the league longer than later draft picks.

For simplicity, and with more time I would like to build a larger sample size, I looked at all players drafted in the 2010 draft, and gauged what percentage of games over those five years (a max of 80 games) have players started. The sample size here of 210 players produced these results:

Percentage of Total Games Started
(Since 2010…80 games max)
Groups Median
Overall.15.0%
1st.....67.5%
2nd.....33.8%
3rd.....36.3%
4th.....6.3%
5th.....4.4%
6th.....1.9%
7th.....0.0%

- The overall median “percentage of games started” by those players selected in the 2010 NFL Draft is 15%;

- 1st round draftees from that season started a higher median percentage of games (67.5%) compared to players drafted in other rounds;

- 2nd and 3rd round draftees from 2010 have started roughly 34% and 36% of all possible games, respectively.

- The median percentage of games started for players drafted in rounds 4 through 7 from the 2010 draft was extremely low, never rising above 7% of games played over the last 5 years.

- 48.5% were first round draft picks when they entered the league;

- 2nd round picks were the next most likely to reach All-Pro status (14%);

- But then undrafted players were the third most likely at 10.5%;

- Lastly, 21% of All-Pros from this period came from either the 3rd, 4th, or 5th round.

In sum, the expectation that first-round picks are more likely to start, succeed, and have staying power is confirmed.

However, with 40% of 2014′s starters and 38% of All-Pros from 2012 through 2014 coming after the 2nd round (with 14% and 10% of these being undrafted players), this shows there’s value deep into the draft.


Okay first let me just say take this guys math with a grain of salt because he has an incredibly small sample size. (Especially with the math that he uses in the second part of this)

Next he doesn't mention how contract guarantees for 1st round picks would affect their staying power. A team just isn't going to cut a player with fully guaranteed money easily.

That being said, I want to use those numbers to show how the Browns improved their odds and what those odds predict.

First an assumption has to made that the Browns scouted players at a level that was equal to the average of the other NFL teams and that is a big assumption for the Browns. These odds would hold if that were the case but the odds go up or down depending on how we scouted.

You will see however that if we compare our odds with the trades that we made vs our odds if we didn't make any trades. The trades did improve our chances.

1 15 Corey Coleman
Since we did not acquire any extra first rounders this year the odds stay the same. We did however improve our odds for next year with and extra 1st rounder.

Odds of a starter: 29.9%
Most likely # games started: 54

2 32 Emmanuel Ogbah

Again we didn't improve our odds, but we did for the future.

Odds of a starter: 17.5%
Most likely # games started: 27

3 65 Carl Nassib
76 Shon Coleman
93 Cody Kessler

This is where it gets interesting because we have increased our chances.

Odds of a starter: 28.8%
Most likely # games started:87

Our odds of at least 1 starter in the 3rd round is now pretty close to what our odds are in the 1st round. Our expected amount of games started however is much higher because of the multiple players.

4 99 Joe Schobert
114 Ricardo Louis
129 Derrick Kindred
138^ Seth DeValve

Odds of a starter: 30.7%
Most likely # games started:20

Because we now have 4 chances, our odds of a starter here are now even greater than the first round. Our games started expectation is lower though at 20

5 154 Jordan Payton
168 Spencer Drango
172^ Rashard Higgins
173^ Trey Caldwell

Odds of a starter: 21%
Most likely # games started:14

Our odds of a starter here are greater than our odds with 1 2nd round pick.

7 250 Scooby Wright III

Odds of a starter: 4.2%
Most likely # games started:0

This points out the flaws of a low sample size. There are starters out there that were drafted in the 7th round so the expected games started should not be zero.

UDFA's

We have a total of 11 right now, but that can change.

Odds of a starter: 34.7%
Most likely # games started: Not included in study.

Again our odds are better here than 1 pick in the 1st round because of the number of chances.

Again do not put too much weight in the numbers because of the small sample size.

This was just an attempt to illustrate how our trade choices improved our odds. I used this particular article because it had the numbers that I needed for the illustration. I would expect these numbers to be off because of the small sample size, but the percentage that our odds increased should be exactly right. Math is still math.

Also given the state of our roster, I expect the odds of our draft choices becoming a starter to be even greater, but that has more to do with opportunity than talent.

As for next year in the first round our odds of a starter go from 29.9% to 41.9% simply by having 2 picks instead of 1.

Just throwing this out there for the wolves to pounce on it.

An interesting thing to look at might be how many pro bowl players are drafted from each round

The author alluded to this at the end, but I wouldn't trust the numbers without a much larger sample.

If I can find a better article, I'll look into that.

Or fail horribly due to the moronic nature of the Eagles.

The biggest thing to remember with all of this because you are dealing with individual persons, not clones:

Correlation does not equal Causation.
Thus, stats like these really only give a historical average of what others have done, but it still gives no reliable indicator at all of what others will do. It projects nothing.