DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2016 NFL Season 2016 NFL Draft Fourth Round Pick - WR Ricardo Louis

I forgot to add that I don't think any draftable WR prospects actually have "bad hands". Imo its just one of those throwaway soundbite generic knocks that studio analysts use. They have to say something/write something and have limited information about a prospect that they didn't scout and explain the players low reception totals.

I agree w/most of your football takes, but I disagree w/this one. There are plenty of receivers who struggle w/catching the ball. They make it big because of their speed or size or athletic ability or a combination of those things.

Huge difference between struggle catching the ball and my definition for bad hands.
Imo my previously explained view of bad hands makes a WR prospects undraftable.

Yea, I agree, Its a copout. A player either has good hands or he doesnt and outside of Kevin Johnson we just havent drafted any receivers with good hands. Travis wilson was a steal in the 3rd round all he has to do is learn to catch. umm what the hell were u drafting him in the 3rd for. Benji is about the only one that actually improved their hands after we drafted him. If u are looking for receivers drafted with bad hands just look at the ones we have drafted over the years from Moragn to Davis, Wilson to the kid farmer drafted last year. Louis is next on the list.

I didnt like the pick cause I just saw him drop the ball to much. He can improve, it does happen its just rare. Its why he went here and not in the first.

Are we even talking about Louis anymore?

Anyhow...first what a WR becomes in the NFL isn't what we are discussing here. Anyone of the drafted WRs could turn out to have 'bad hands' in the NFL.

Prospects that get drafted or sign as UDFA are at the top of their respective positions in the world.
I'm sure if you looked at the drop rates of WRs that get drafted very few would have high drop rates.

But, as you are well aware the NFL is a different animal then NCAA. Players fail. More players fail then succeed for any multitude of reasons. WRs that had great hands get to the NFL and drop passes left and right. BUT that doesn't mean they had bad hands coming into the league.
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But, back to Louis specifically.

What/how much is too much?

How much of Ricardo Louis have you watched?

Do you know Ricardo Louis drop rate?

What do you consider an acceptable or unacceptable drop rate?

bored J/c and a kinda sorta continuation to Mourgrym on Louis having bad hands

Here's what I found as far as drop rate (please feel free to add if you find different or others):
http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/auburn-football/auburn-receiver-ricardo-louis-wants-nfl-chance/

83 targets 5 drops

That would give him only 6% drop rate.
For reference that drop rate would be lower then Treadwell, Coleman and Doctson.

Also, keep in mind he's a vertical receiver in a run based offense. This means that he's running very few routes, gets very few targets and the routers he runs are low percentage. He's not getting volume running slants, hitches and drags. And his QB play was spotty to say the least. If that drop rate is correct 6% is really good.

And for me doesn't match the narrative of bad hands. Just looking at the available game cut-ups you can see him adjusting to make difficult catches all the time.

Off the topic of hands and on to overall ability. There' s a stat called 'Yards Per Route Run' that PFF tracks. Their Top 4 WRs were:

1. Leonte Carroo 4.11
2. Josh Doctson 4.07
3. Corey Coleman 3.97
4. Ricardo Louis 3.51

https://twitter.com/pff/status/723505173734297601

If Louis takes to coaching, then I think that he could have a good career in this league. He already has what can't be coached.

Would you clarify something for me? Why are you listing targets when comparing them to drops? What if the ball is picked first? What if the ball is thrown in the dirt? What if the ball is overthrown? What do those types of throws have to do w/catching the football?

Wouldn't it be much more accurate to compare Catches to Drops?

For example, how many catches did he have to go w/his drops?

What about the other guys you listed?

That seems to be more valuable than targets.

Oh, one more thing............why has his drop total decreased from earlier posts?

Vers-
Ill respond to your post

BUT Chris Trapasso the guy who posted Louis targets and drops, just responded to my tweet asking about catchable targets-he said he doesn't remember exactly but most of his drops were on diving catches. Anyhow..what do you want me to ask him?

It appears that he has 2 or 3 of his drops in the Alabama game.

One was an over the top pass that appeared to be near the top of his catch range. It was catchable, though. Another was a pass that got into his gut, and it looks like he could have made the catch, except instead of catching it with his hands out, he let the ball get into his body, where the defender's helmet might have helped break it up. He had another pass that was caught, but dropped when the defender grabbed his face mask. I assume that was a penalty.

This is the impression I got from looking at stills of their game against Alabama.

I'm not sure if you've tried to find this information, but its not easy.
In my previous post I welcomed anyone to post what they find.

Catch rate and drop rate are usually compared against targets or catchable passes on the sites I checked. I agree the circumstances you mentioned have little to do with receiver catch/drop. But, I didn't personal sift through the data, I reposted Chris Trapasso data. If you have other info, again, please post. I have a feeling that Chris 86 targets is off, but he's the only one that's posted targets or drops for Louis that I've found.

It may be more accurate to compare catches to drops. The ideal would be to compare catchable passes to drops.

If you or someone else is willing to post those stats I would be more then glad to view them. Again, I was reposting someone else data not actually gathering the data myself.

I have no idea, why or if Ricardo drop totals changes I didn't see his drop total posted. What was his previously listed drop total?

(btw-I e-mailed PFF for the Louis stats, because I know they keep all those numbers. Maybe they still feel guilty about removal of signature stats and will hook me up.)

Don't go to all that trouble. I was just wondering if you knew the other percentages.

It seems weird that they track targets to drops instead of catchable passes to drops.

Oh well...........

Until/if my pals at PFF come through here's what I found:

Corey Coleman--74--10 drops=13.5% (8.6)*
Josh Doctson--78--6 drops=8% (3.4)*
Laquon Treadwell--82--9 drops=11% (9.5)*
Will Fuller--138 (2 seasons)--21 drops=15% (9.1)*
Ricardo Louis--46--5 drops (from Chris Tarpasso)=11%

Their actual drop rates are lower (and they are posted randomly in different articles http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-2016-nfl-draft-prospects-results.html)*
but using strictly their catches vs their drops the above was the outcome.

Personally, I think drop rate and dropped passes are an overrated as stand alone measure of WR talent. All receivers some passes, even in the NFL.

Anyhow...I found the drops from different articles below:
drop numbers come from:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/20...condary-talent/

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/20...lions-at-no-16/

All of this drop rate talk, arose because of the perception, unfounded as far as I can tell, that Ricardo Louis has bad hands.

I like the Louis pick. It makes sense to me given his skillset and given where he was drafted. He may take time or may never even develop. But he has the physical tools, and was a very productive WR despite limited use.

Thanks for doing all that research. It wasn't really my intent to make you go through all that...........I just thought that perhaps those numbers were readily available.

Serious question............and don't research this...LOL.........but why do you think that these sites post targets to drops over catchable passes to drops?

Doesn't make sense to me, but maybe I am missing something............???

Fingers crossed PFF will come through because now I'm really curious about Louis actual numbers.

And it may have been lost in the post I made earlier but the sites I went either use targets or catchable passes as opposed to just catches.

My guess is the sites that use targets as opposed to catchable passes didn't sift through and quantify each target to discern 'catchability' or maybe thought making a determination about catchability would be too subjective. *shrugs*

Neither here nor there but Chris's opinion (he's someone that took the time to chart Louis) said 'he really didn't see drops as an issue for Louis'.

Imho, the 'bad hands' rap against Louis doesn't stick based on the watches his game cut-ups or his drop numbers (currently unverified drops).

Anyhow, found another Auburn/Louis cut-up. And this is from the game that is referenced when in articles that site his drops:

Okay.................thanks a lot, ed.

oh look... you found a photo of Brayon's hands

I think they post targets so you can get a sense of usage rate/how big a part of the offense's plans a player is. It can also give you a sense of the quality of QB play the receiver is dealing with.

For example, if the other team knows the player is a focal point of the offense, he'll probably see more defensive attention in the way of shaded coverages, double teams, etc.

Numbers are nice, but it's hard to paint a complete picture no matter what comparison you use. You've really got to watch the player on the field.

Dropped the "L"?

The key for Ricardo (as with anyone coming into the NFL) isn’t what he did in college.

With the exception of injuries, it’s very close to 100% mental from now on.

Will he commit to whatever it takes.

Hmmm... I would have guessed Quincy Morgan.

My guess was Dennis Dropcutt

Wow! Did Greg Little Bleach his hands.

Naaaa...Quincy didn't have thumbs on either hand. The person in the photo clearly has thumbs.

just reading these posts

Braylon Edwards
Quincy Morgan
Greg Little
Dennis Northcutt

sad.... just sad.

Oh man, my stomach just turned.....last nights dinner doesn't taste good the next morning....yuk

Northcutt gets way too much hate. He was a really solid player for us for years. Yes, he dropped that one critical pass in the playoff game, but he also did a lot to help get us there. Let's not forget, he didn't play defense in that game.

Greg Little, lmfao.

The icing on that cake was when we axed him, Bengals picked him up and when we played him, he said "someone has to pay" haha hahahaha. What a waste. Quincy Morgan, ouch. Could've went not remembering that name lmfaoooo!

ooops

The funniest thing ever with Morgan was the story where he found out he had been released, or something, and he was quoted as saying something like "when they told me, I dropped the phone"

Upside...I see Ricardo as good slot guy that can run after the catch. He matches up well with the smaller CB's and can see the field well and has the ability to finish runs and add YAC. Plus he has the speed and size to be a deep threat or decoy that will keep defenses honest.

Downside...Running disciplined routes, and hands. He'll need to watch and learn some from the vet's. Could take a couple years to develop into a quality WR.

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks this.

Unfortunate drop, sure. Not a gimme pass, but catchable.

I do remember someone dropping an INT right in the breadbasket, that would have sealed the game. Want to say it was Henry, but could be mistaken.

http://www.dawgsbynature.com/2016/8/7/12385142/krupkas-film-room-ricardo-louis

^^Film room breakdown (now that he's been playing well/better then expected) has some of the same info posted in this thread around draft time

Currently from what I've read from Gribbs...Louis is running with the 2s ahead of the other rookie draft picks