DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2017 NFL Season 2017 NFL Draft Patrick Mahomes

I didn't see a thread specifically for Pat and though hes in quite a few here and there I think he's deserving of his own at this point. Below are links to various tapes of interest and I'd just generally like peoples opinions ONLY AFTER WATCHING GAME TAPE THEMSELVES PLEASE. Sorry for that but if we could keep this educated please and thank you. I've included two tapes against his best pass defenses the last 2 years to judge his progression this year and a highlight tape. They say not to judge a highlight tape but as long as that isn't all you watch I think it's a good tool to judge a ceiling.

He is a very polarizing prospect so I'm curious how you guys veiw young Pat and i think it will breed good conversation. I will share my thoughts later.

vs Baylor

vs LSU 2015

Highlight

no look passes...rare anticipation?

65 yards off knees

pros:
very strong arm and throws with very nice velocity
has nice anticipation
seems to see the field very well
head stays clear under pressure

cons:
very bad footwork
poor throwing technique


I think he is an interesting prospect for a say a third round pick. I think Hue could clean up his technique and turn it into something worth having in 2-3 seasons. I think Hue could turn him into a very good QB.

If we kept rg3 and kessler I would love to have this guy as a #3 and see what he turns into.

I agree with you Razor, but I think he'll be a riser through the Draft process. I've read that he got a 1st to 2nd grade from the advisory board and I think that's where he will end up.

I'd be much more comfortable in the 2nd, and would still like him to sit for a while.

Think he's the best down field thrower in the class and that seems to fit our receivers and what Hue seems to want to do.

He's a project like the rest, but the one I find myself leaning towards.

He is wildly inaccurate. No thanks.

I could see him going in the second but I don't think he belongs there because he is going to need to be coached up a bit. I think he has plenty of potential though.

Wildly inaccurate? I think that's a bit of a stretch. I'll go back and look at the tape as he was one of the first QBs I looked at.

65.7 Completion percentage on 591 passes. 7 INTs fewer than Watson on more passes (a dozen or so). 1 more INT than Kizer on 230(ish) more passes. 4 More INTs than Trubisky on 150(ish) more passes.

Mahomes had the highest average of the 4 at 8.5 yards (Trubisky next at 8.4 surprised me a bit)

He showed more drop it in the bucket-type, down field passes than I recall from the others.

He also rushed for 12 TDs this season, 3 more than the "running" QB Watson.

He does have rough edges. I don't like him as much as I liked Wentz, but I think he has nice tools and fits Hue's philosophy. I think he could be the best QB out of this class, but probably not till down the road.

I'd still go defense early.

Couple of my uneducated observations from the Baylor game:

2:09 - really nice throw for the TD.

3:29 - 3rd and 7, pressure, stepped up, kind of a jump throw, too high, incomplete
3:52 - beautiful deep ball. TD. Had all day, great protection.
4:24 - TD but throw behind the receiver.
5:27 - nice throw to the flat under duress but should have thrown it away
5:57 - couldn't tell who the read was but 2 guys were wide open, nice throw although a little behind.
6:34 - just avoided getting levelled, not sure he detected that pressure.
6:50 - incomplete pass, should have made that
7:12 - intentional ground penalty
8:13 - threw it away, good decision
8:21 - tipped pass lucky not to be intercepted
8:43 - best throw of the game. Stepped up under pressure and a beautiful pass that dropped into the receiver's basket but was dropped. Really impressive throw.
9:36 - underthrown pass.
10:04 - TD pass, nice back shoulder throw, but the receiver pushed off. Should have been called OPI.
10:20 - throw off the back foot.
10:43 - lovely deep ball again. Stepped into the throw, on the money.


General:
Quick release, compact action
Pretty accurate on the shorter passes, showed some touch, but off on other occasions. Mechanics?
Some really nice long passes - obviously has the arm
Keeps his eyes downfield and displayed some pocket awareness, moving up the pocket - his best throws were when he stepped up and into them.

However...
Threw off the backfoot, didnt seem wholly balanced on some throws.
Only from the Shotgun
Not sure on him going through progressions. Are his decisions mostly pre-snap? Seems to be looking one way.
Ball placement was erratic - needs to be more consistent but some of his deep balls were things of beauty.

He has talent and some of what I saw can be fixed in terms of mechanics I would assume. The bigger question - can he make the mental leap, operate under center, etc.

Intriguing though - that game showed positives and negatives. Is he any better than Kessler at this point? Admittedly he has the arm but I value accuracy and decision making more than that to a point. Not saying Kessler is the answer either, just think it's useful to consider them against each other?

Apologies for the amateur nature of my comments - I ain't no expert.

Ahhhh........another guy who uses completion percentage to judge accuracy.

The guy has a lot of great throws, but he also misses a ton of throws. I am not the only one who feels that way, so perhaps it isn't that much of a "stretch."

He is capable of being a good QB but his tech is bad which is why he is so inconsistent at times. Clean him up though and he will be a good QB.

I'm pretty sure I watch as much tape as anyone on this board and more than most, I don't just scout box scores.

However, when someone makes an outlandish claim like calling a QB "wildly inaccurate" I try to verify what I had seen with the numbers. The numbers which are most commonly used to measure accuracy don't seem to back it up.

Not the most accurate, sure, but wildly seemed a bit excessive. When you throw as often as he did from behind a porous offensive line often when trailing because the defense was awful, there are going to be bad throws.

Texas Tech had the 2nd highest percentage of passing plays behind only Washington State at 62.82%.

[url= https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/passing-play-pct]link[/url]

According to football outsiders, Texas Tech was only slightly below average as far as sack rate, but I am still trying to track down QB hits and pressures.

Grimm - a couple thoughts on that.

1st - when looking at the numbers, there needs to be a correction for the bubble screen. They inflate completion percentage. Unfortunately, no easy way to do it.

2nd - Mahomes is wildly inaccurate - AT TIMES. I capitalize at times because it is important. No doubt, he makes some amazing throws. But other times he makes a throw and you're left shaking your head wondering what the heck.

I submit the WVU game for your review.
But again, he is wildly inaccurate AT TIMES.

I refer you to the WVU game - the link is below. Look at the throws at time mark:

0:03
0:33
5:57
7:28
9:00
9:18
13:06 - arguable if wildly inaccurate or just inaccurate

I didn't watch the whole cut-up I watched the start then randomly clicked in various parts of it. These are examples to show you times when he was wildly inaccurate with his throws. I didn't include throws when he was under lots of pressure.

And before the spin accusations start (not from you grimm but some others who like to throw that around), no I did not include his good throws. I am not arguing that he doesn't make some good throws. Actually, he makes some amazing throws (4:38 and 4:55). I am just demonstrating that AT TIMES he can be wildly inaccurate.


http://draftbreakdown.com/video/patrick-mahomes-vs-west-virginia-2016/

My take on Mahomes, and if you don't agree with it, that's fine.

He has huge flaws in his mechanics and that leads to being inaccurate. A majority of his throws are off-balance even when he has time. When he does have good mechanics, he hits his WR's on a frozen rope.

He has a crap o-line and has resorted to backyard football to make up for it. He has a little Brett Farve/Doug Flutie in him.

He is very mobile in the pocket, but forgets mechanics when he does so.

He has an NFL arm and NFL size.

He plays in a gimmick offense and it's always a gamble to project if a QB from an offense like that can make NFL reads.

He wears a wrap on his elbow and that is a scary thing to see on a QB with bad mechanics. I do not know for sure, but he could have tendonitis. It's pretty common for QB's that throw incorrectly for too long.

I see him a a huge project. Like a having to sit for more than 1 year type project.

All that being said, you could do worse than to take a late round flier on the guy. He has a good combination of size/arm/mobility that isn't that common.

When the QB class isn't very good, these are the type of gambles that you have to take. They don't cost an arm and a leg when you make a mistake and pay off big time if you hit the jackpot.

If he is there in the 4th or 5th round, I'd start to think about it. The 3rd round is pushing it for me. There are other guys in the late rounds that are about the same type of gamble and there is no need to reach.

Eotab he is rated anywhere from 1st round to 4th round depending on who you read. I personally place him as a 3rd to 4th rounder because he will need to be taught and made to sit for a few years while he improves his tech. He has same really good talent but he needs to have some bad habits weeded out. Given an ideal situation he could turn into a top tier QB if he does what he needs to, to improve himself.

0:03 Inaccurate, maybe, but not wildly in my eyes. He had to get it over the underneath coverage and between the two defenders behind. His receiver seemed to get a hand on it.

0:33 It was third down with 7 yards to go, I think he expected the receiver to run the route closer to the marker and he was throwing to a spot.

5:57 You've got to give the receiver a chance, at the same time the receiver has to give him more room to fit it. Our receivers have the same problem with getting squeezed to the sideline.

7:28 Was a throw away after a scramble as he approached the sideline.

9:00 looked like he wasn't on the same page as his receiver, and was possibly a bad read of the outside corner.

9:18 saw the blitz and went to the hot read. Poor throw.

13:06 Looked like his receiver got 2 hands on it in stride to me.


I'm not saying he has great accuracy all the time, but after watching Browns QB play for years I wouldn't call it wildly inaccurate.

It just didn't seem fair as a 1 sentence characterization.

For comparison sake and because Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes are similar in build.

These were Dak's weaknesses as listed by nfl.com.

Weaknesses
Beat up this year thanks to poor protection. When he wasn't being sacked, he was being hit hard. Not as competitive a rusher in 2015. Sacks and usage in run game might be taking a toll. Increase in short pass attempts from 86 to 208 this year reason for higher completion numbers. Accuracy on intermediate and deep throws dropped sharply. Pocket poise has been compromised. Hyper­ aware of pressure around him and lacks awareness to slide and find temporary shelter to make throw. Concern over pressure too often trumps ability to get through progressions. Must speed up the pace of his reads. Footwork is a mess. Slight stride onto stiff upper leg with little weight shift. Restricted follow through and too often tries to muscle throws with upper body. Throws to target rather than leading or throwing them open on short/intermediate throws. Too respectful of underneath coverage and must be more willing to challenge the defense. Needs to improve anticipation.

The elbow thing bothers me. Think Tim Couch.

Wow. Was that report wrong, or what?

Check out some of these statements:



LOL........about as far off as one can get.

I don't know I'd probably still say that about sums him up. He just has the luxury of playing behind a brick wall. I didn't care for Dak because of his reaction to pressure and his lack of ball placement.

Everyone talks about the OL, but how well did the QBs do last year behind that OL?

Dak is a very good player. I think the things I listed are far from the truth.

Im not saying the OL is the only reason hes successful or that he isn't better than Matt Cassel. Even the best players have faults. In college he had a horrid OL and it caused him to make poor decisions and throw off balance. He also doesnt have consistency on his ball placement and probably never will but improved mechanics will help. That doesnt mean he cant be a competent qb. It's just a good thing for him he went where he did is all I'm saying. His faults are minimized in dallas. It's a great fit for them both.

I like Mahomes a lot and fired up a thread on him when he first declared. I think there's a ton of things to like about him from a raw talent perspective but raw is the operative term.

The "wildly inaccurate" label is a little over the top but the review that Vers posted as a follow up is accurate. He can make your jaw drop with an incredible throw just as easily as he misses the easiest throw known to man.

I think he's got the tools to be successful but he's not a sure thing. I'd be comfortable burning a third on him...maybe a second if there's a real run on QBs but I wouldn't consider him anywhere in the first by a long shot.

I get a laugh out of revisiting old scouting reports.

Pick any year and you will find some like the one on Dak.

If we beleive all of what is written, by some of these pre draft scouting reports, it's no small wonder anyone ever succeeds at the next level.

I would have drafted Dak in the third round last year. I thought that would of been our plan B after making the trade with the Eagles, but it wasn't be meant to be.

An extended look.

[video:youtube]https://youtu.be/DPe5qr7-KdY[/video]

The young man is going to need some good coaching, but the skill set is there and his ceiling is tops in this class.

When his mechanic's are good he is very accurate. His consistency needs to improve at the next level.

Rodgers was said to have the same mechanical flaws as a draft prospect.

As Hue Jackson would say
He's a peace of clay right now.

Mahomes and Kizer are the only realistic targets for me based on where we could potentially get them according to various big boards out there. I'm not enamoured enough with any QB with our top 2 picks, especially when we can potentially snag 2 blue chip impact players at those slots. If we can snag Kizer at 33 (that's based on suppositon Hue likes him) or PM later, then cool. If Trubisky starts falling in round 1 it will get interesting, especially if we have fortified other positions earlier.

I agree. If Trubisky and Watson are taken in the top 11 selections, then that number 12 pick becomes a top 10 talent wise.

We might also trade down in the 1st round, if we don't like how the top has shaken out and still get another player we might be targeting in that scenario.

I would then use the 33rd selection on Kizer or Mahomes, based on availability. I would not wait until our next selection, because if you can draft (every year) lower rated talent at QB in the first, then how much more so in the 2nd?

I have a feeling that Hue will fall in love with Webb or Dobbs while he is coaching them at the Senior bowl. I predict that we will draft one of those 2 at some point in the draft.

Yeah, but hopefully not before the 5th round.

Will you please expound on that?

Good tape, bad tape = inconstancy with their mechanics.

This was the reason given why Rodgers fell in the draft at that time.

Mahomes has lightning quick feet, but his drops and spacing need some polish, so if someone says that he has bad feet, that is not exactly the truth.

He has one of the quickest releases you will ever see and he doesn't need to step into a pass, because he can get it there on a rope with a flick of the wrist.

Some of his so called poor mechanics are because like Rodgers, Mahomes can get the ball there in a variaty of ways, however un orthodox it might appear. He will use a jump, push, 3/4 sidearm as well as conventional passes.

In the Corp, we would call that thinking on the fly. This is an indicator of proccessing information in a very short time.

I agree w/what you are saying about Mahomes, but I disagree w/you about Rodgers.

Rodgers fell because of two reasons, maybe three:

--He stunk it up in the bowl game while Alex Smith lit it up.

--Many teams were not looking for a qb that year.

--He held the ball high up by his ear even during his drop. It was something we used to have our middle school coaches teach their young qbs to do to help w/mechanics and we kinda did it in high school too, but man, you can't play in the NFL that way. Green Bay had to rework how he held the ball.............which is kinda funny because they actually taught him to not use proper technique. LOL........I am not kidding.

LOL, I remember that.

Good tape, bad tape, but Mahomes bad tape is his inconsistent foot work. He has tape showing good mechanics with stepping up or sliding in the pocket, proper spacing of feet, direction of front foot, velocity and follow though, which if the read is correct, usually ends up being a reception.

I would have to strongly disagree. His footwork is flat out terrible and will be the #1 thing he has to fix to make his game more consistent. Yes, he has a cannon for an arm but it can end up all over the place.

The good news is that the things that need fixed are very fixable. The bad news is it will take several seasons most likely to fix them and make him NFL worthy. He is a good 4-5th round pick for a team that can let him sit and get fixed up. If he is taken high and thrown to the wolves he will have a career much like DA.

Really good points above fellas - I don't have the knowledge on this subject but from what I have watched, I like PM as a developmental type. He has the tools, he just needs refinement and coaching. Still not a slam dunk even then but has certain things that cannot be taught.

I'd rather build up the team in a defensively heavy draft and take a flyer on PM or JD or whoever later. If the answer isn't there at QB, reaching for one makes no sense. However, Hue and the organisation need to decide that, not some ne'er do well on a forum

So do you disagree that he has good tape showing he can use proper foot work?

Sure you can find plays where he shows decent footwork but then watch the full game and all kind of crazy stuff goes on with it. Footwork is fixable though. You fix the footwork and I think you fix some of his accuracy problems. A good 60%(estimating) of his bad passes have been directly related to bad footwork. You fix those feet of his and he could be a heck of a good QB.

As a side note don't think I hate this guy. If we don't draft a QB at 1 or 12 and we don't land a trade for Jimmy G. I'd be fine drafting this guy with our second 2nd round pick. He might go in the first round though near the bottom as the rth rated QB in the draft.

Yeah, that is my point he needs to do the right mechanics (feet) more consistently.

When his feet are right, he can drop a dime. He won't have the same success with sloppy foot wook at the next level as the margin of error is much less.