DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season 2018 NFL Draft 2018 Draft QB Film Breakdown

Clearly, Baker should be the top QB drafted.

It depends on how you look at the stats.

I believe you always have to contextualize. And the fact of the matter is 1) the OU scheme gives him easier throws 2) he had the best pass protection.

I know for me i look at his stats with a "correction" due to scheme.

It also depends on whether or not height matters to you.

Likeswise with arm strentgh and off the field concerns.

But yeah there are reasons to view him as the top QB and there are reason why he isn't.

We would be fools to pass on mayfield at number 4, but if he's gone then Darnold, Rosen, Allen would be there. Barkley at #1, Mayfield or other QB at #4. Best thing we could do.

Yeah, I don't get the lack of arm strength with Baker. He has one of the strongest arms in this draft class.

I watched a lot of end of the season games for these guys and finally reviewed almost all of this thread.

A lot of the conversation seems to be around Darnold or Rosen...Mayfield seems like a game changer though. Is the lack of love for him mostly attributed to the earlier in the season comparisons to Manziel?

I read an article I think on CBS that Buffalo may try and trade up to get Mayfield...am I missing something or do folks really think Darnold is just that much better?

I think folks are really starting to come around on Mayfield.

My ratings are 1) Rosen 2) Mayfield 3) Darnold then further off 4) Allen 5) Jackson.

I just hate that stupid headband thing that Mayfield wears. Looks like a t-shirt sleeve or something.


But yeah, Rosen is ahead of the pack (but I don't know his medical or personal evaluations so I can only say what I know from what I've seen on tape), then Mayfield and Darnold are pretty close.

But from the film, Mayfield is a heckuva QB. I think a lot of folks on here would agree too.



I just didn't want to draft Barkley at 1 (which is why I posted the guy heaving)

I initially was somewhat high on Barkley, as this week has gone on, I've started to shift my mindset a bit. Mayfield has really been growing on me though.

Question on Rosen...he seems to already have some physical issues/limitations...
Freshman Year - 13 GP
Sophomore Year - 6 GP (shoulder injury)
Junior Year - 11 GP (concussion)


Also interesting comments from Dorsey before he came to Cleveland - https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-brow...Rosen-112784642

yeah, but his is that ridiculous thick t-shirt material cotton one.

I just don't like it

Like look at this picture from his pro-day. I found an article just typing in Baker Mayfield Headband. And it's showing how he compares to the Karate Kid.


















He even wears the stupid thing when he gets off the airplane

Man, if he takes us to where he says he'd take us, I'd sport one of those stupid things around too.

Probably wouldn't even be forced to wear it neither. It would be the new thing to wear if you're a Browns fan, lol



But as of now, I can't stand it. Hopefully Dorsey doesn't draft based on headbands though (not saying Mayfield should be number 1, but his headband shouldn't be a factor)

I don't know where the videos was posted of his pro day, might be in a different thread, but did you hear what one reporter asked?

He said: Are you going to be taking on Ralph Macchio after your done here?

Gave me a huge guffaw.

How are they saying Time to Throw is calculated?

Give us variables because THAT one REEKS of Darnold and Rosen.

Maybe that what that stat means for you.

You can interpret however you want. The stat itself is merely a measure of the time it takes from when a QB receives the snap to when he releases the ball or get sacked.

And its only 1 of several metrics (already posted) that PFF tracked.

I think there are much more meaningful 'stand alone' stats then time to throw.

Having a high or low time to throw isn't measure of "goodness" or "bad(ness)" lol. Just information thats speaks more to "style" of play then anything else. And its a piece of information that makes more sense in combination with film. QBs that scramble and extend plays tend to have a longer TtT numbers. QBs that "hold the ball" tend to have a higher times. Playing in an offense that throws a lot of screens (for example) can lower TtT. Taking sacks can lead to higher TtT etc...

I was surprised though, that Darnold's TtT was 2.60 because he does scramble quite a bit...but there offense does throw its fair share of quick hitters screens and such.

Exactly what I thought.

Darnold's so called Wind Up means NOTHING.

Thanks

Does it matter if they throw to the WRONG guy ? Even if its quick ? LMAO

TtT isn't a measure of a QBs physical release time at all though.

Darnold's wind-up may be a non-issue. Other QBs have wind-ups worse then his and have success...other have wind-ups like his and struggle.

Maybe the increase in speed going from college to the NFL will make his wind-up more of an issue...but maybe not.

However; compared against a "baseline" of evaluated QB traits "throwing motion" would be an area where Darnold would be deficient compared to other prospects or the "desired" level.

Whether or not it makes a difference is a question only time can answer.

TLDR:

If I was evaluating/ranking Throwing motion: Scale 1-5 1=Tebow 5=Namath

Allen=4
Darnold=2
Mayfield=3
Jackson=3
Rosen=4

How would you rate them in terms of throwing motion?

JC: The one thing that wind up does is expose the ball to pass rushers. That's what worries me about the wind up, not how long before he throws the ball

also, long wide ups means plenty of batted balls at the line of scrimmage.

True, players theoretically have an easier time recognizing the motion (earlier)

we saw that with weeden. defensive linemen were timing it every game.

Rosen 5 - Clear and away the best. It's very compact. It's not super quick like Jimmy G's, but he does a good job at quickly releasing the ball.

Allen 4 - To watch him throw the ball is a beauty. To watch him play QB is infuriating. Makes a lot of dumb throws and gets dumb ideas a lot. However, he is a great thrower.

Mayfield 4 - I like it, it's much more like a baseball stance than a football stance. I wonder if he'll be able to get enough room to open up his stance consistently in the NFL, but good thing he's not two inches taller so this wouldn't become a debate.

Darnold 3 - My biggest problem isn't with his hitch, it's with how low he holds the ball while in the pocket. That's just multiple strip sacks waiting to happen.

Lamar Jackson 3 - The gigantic problem with him is how narrow his stance is. His narrow base really limits his control and his power. Which is why so many of his balls sail over the middle. You give him a year or two to fix it and he could be money.

Link to the evaluation categories post in this thread. (10405407)

https://www.dawgtalkers.net/ubbthreads.php/topics/1405407/edromeo#Post1405407

Acc-Accuracy - ball placement, ability to make throws to body position (back shoulder), ability to throw receivers away from coverage/harm

Arm Strength-Velocity

Athleticism/Escapability-Combination of speed, agility and strength used to escape or elude sacks and pass rush

Dropback/Footwork- Ability to execute a 3-5-7 step drop rhythm passing offense and also the pass drop itself: get away from center, set up, weight transfer and ability to reset when moving indside the pocket. Throwing base and stance.

Experience
-- 1 year as starter + less than two years on bench = inadequate
- 1 year as starter + at least two on bench = below average (Matt Sanchez)
- 2 years as starter + at least 1 on bench = average (Sam Bradford/Blaine Gabbert)
- 3 years as starter = above average (Matt Stafford)
- 4 years as starter = elite (Colt McCoy)

Playmaking-Not just making a play on the run but when a play breaks down and the QB uses a mix of improvisation/decision making and athleticism to make a play.
Display the ability to turn a possible negative play into a positive. What can they do after the given play fails? (broken play, good coverage, pass protection breakdown etc)

Production/Efficiency-Based not only on raw stats and efficiency rating but, trying to consider and account for differences in overall team talent (pass protection, WR, number of draftable players on offense etc). e.g. Andrew Luck would be handicapped for playing behind one of the best OL in football for the past 2 season and only being sacked 12 times combined or Scott Tolzien for having 2 1,000 yard rushers in the same season.

Production baseline average baseline= 60% completions, 750+ attempts, 40+ passing touchdowns.

Size-

Throwing Motion- Mechanics/quick release/variety angles/consistency


Pro/NFL-Pro-readiness/amount of NFL concepts in college offense

Injury - Clean bill of health, sustained major injuries/missed time (how much?)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AiYYUY9mls&list=PLIi2fitORCcZU377esdr8MQrzUgIFm436&index=23

^^These guys kind of nerd out too much but they have some info worth considering in regards to throwing motion of some of the top prospects.

Great post. Nice to get back talking evaluation, instead of just bickering back and forth.

I rarely give out 5s in my ranking/evals. And on my eval criteria list I separate the categories. So for me throwing motion is separate from decision making, footwork. But, I don't have a separate category for carriage i.e. how a QB holds the ball so I mix that in with throwing motion when evaluating Darnold.

here's my criteria list btw:

https://www.dawgtalkers.net/ubbthreads.php/topics/1405407/edromeo#Post1405407

Anyhow i'll flesh my throwing motion rankings out a little:

Allen=4
Compact, quick, text book....picture perfect

Darnold=2
Loopy or "big" motion but still quick, low single handed carriage when he's throwing on the run

Mayfield=3
Compact, quick, can vary arm angles.....sometime unnecessarily, inconsistent with high maintaining a high release point

I've struggled with how to classify the QBs that vary their arm slot/arm angle. In once sense its good to be able to throw from different arm angles and slots. However for a shorter QB i think they need to have a more pronounced over the top throwing motion like a Russell Wilson or Drew Brees that almost exaggerate their high release point. Baker's release point even at it peak doesn't match theirs.

Jackson=3
Ultra quick (maybe the quickest?), compact, can vary arm angles sometime unnecessarily

(again for me I separate footwork into a different category so I don't knock his throwing motion for having a narrow base)

Rosen=4
Teaching tape throwing motion, not ultra quick but compact, consistent, smooth

CHS and whomever else...I've posed this question:

What do you view as the weakness(es) of ______________?

In the top 6 QB thread prospects threads.

I'm thinking of posing a series of questions about different skillset/traits of each prospect.

Would welcome your comments/suggestions...you know group effort type of thing.

Ranking/evaluating this years college crop of QBs based on skillset category seems like a good exercise for those posters interested in actual discussion of the prospects.

What categories do you look at?

Allen-Lack of production/efficiency (decision making) while playing at a lower level of competition, injury history, accuracy

Darnold-Throwing motion, turn-overs

Mayfield-Size, transition from OU's offense to NFL scheme, inconsistent release points

Jackson-Consistency in his stance too often throws with a narrow base, inconsistent release points

Rosen-Ability to avoid pressure that forces him out the pocket/situations that call for extend plays out of the pocket, injury history

EO, you really overlook being publicly drunk, running from cops, and grabbing your crotch...he represents our team... we went thru Johnny not to long ago....he, Mansfield, can say he's not JM all he wants.....actions vs words...AND all his bluster, just like Manziel, let's wreck this league. OK, he's not small, but don't forget Manziel got hurt QUICKLY too. I much prefer Allen, even with percentage competition rate...put Allen on OK team and wonder what the results had been.....GO Browns!!!!

Allen was playing against bad teams also...

But I agree with some of the concerns with Mayfield.... I don't think we have the structure to control this type of players.

And losing is very hard on players, it takes a special kind of player to resist and improve when he is under the microscope and being blamed for the losses...

reply to get a link, disregard

One thing to keep in mind is that Johnny's actions vs Baker's actions aren't the same. Johnny was a party animal. Baker is a homebody. You constantly hear they are the same person off the field but they really aren't.

So Johnny has friends and no one likes to hang out with Baker cause he keeps grabbing his crotch, throwing stuff at folks heads, and breaking the law? Got it.

lol

Not sure I follow that except that's not what I said.

lol, just messing with ya man