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edromeo Offline OP
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Greeting fellow couch scouts!



Once again we're going to try our hand at a group evaluation of the current draft class QBs.

If you don't remember the format can be viewed here:

https://www.dawgtalkers.net/ubbthreads.php/topics/1207770/film-breakdown-deshaun-watson#Post1207770

https://www.dawgtalkers.net/ubbthreads.php/topics/1204045/film-breakdown-mitch-trubisky#Post1204045

https://www.dawgtalkers.net/ubbthreads.php/topics/1247069/film-breakdown-the-other-guys#Post1247069

Anyhow...the lofty purpose of these threads is to have an objective view of youtube cut-ups of the QB prospects.


How?

View a games posted on youtube / http://draftbreakdown.com/. Individually watch/chart the games keeping note of the plays that stand out.

Reference the plays that stand out via time stamp e.g. @2:43 blah blah
@ 3:32 blah blah etc...


Anyhow who is in? And where to start?

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Hell yeah. We need to pick these guys apart.

I'd start with the 2 consensus picks to go #1.

Darnold and Rosen.

Cause I'd BANK IT we're going QB at #1.

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Games on the que for breakdown/discussion:

This is the full cut-up of the UCLA vs USC game


Last edited by edromeo; 01/13/18 10:16 AM.
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Games on the que for breakdown/discussion:

This is the full cut-up of the Louisville vs FSU game


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Romans 10:9 "That if thou shalt confess with thy mouth the Lord Jesus, and believe in thy heart that God hath raised him from the dead, thou shalt be saved."
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Sam Darnold vs Penn State 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqjBJbowLSk

Sam Darnold vs Ohio State 2017

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVwQ718zvpc


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You posted games but didn't really say anything about why you posted them...are those the game you are going to chart?

The 2 games I posted earlier are because those are the next games that are going to be charted by CHSdawg and myself for discussion.

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Originally Posted By: edromeo
You posted games but didn't really say anything about why you posted them...are those the game you are going to chart?

The 2 games I posted earlier are because those are the next games that are going to be charted by CHSdawg and myself for discussion.


Yes. I want to look at Rosen vs A&M in back to back year and Darnold vs A Big Ten team in a bowl game in back to back years.


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Originally Posted By: Day of the Dawg



In 2016 vs Texas A&M

Rosen shows the ability to read the defense both pre and post snaps. There is a pay at the 2:53 mark that shows a slow motion replay of him going thru his progressions quickly. Delivers NFL caliber throws on time to receivers with anticipation. Has a very nice play action pass. Give this kid time in the pocket and he will kill you.

He is a better athlete than I thought example was this tremendous athletic play at the 8:22 mark where he drops the snap in shot gun and still completes a back shoulder throw for a first down still basically on time.

At the 9:33 shows more ability to scramble with the ball than I anticipated. Won't beat anyone with his feet but mobile enough to scramble when needed.

at the 10:39 mark rolls out to right sees defender running with head not turned and throws a strike to receiver for log TD. Shows ability to make plays when nothing is initially available.

8:46 mark executes a really good play action pass and hits wide receiver in stride for what should have been a huge gain possible score but receiver drops ball.

When the pocket breaks down he loses some of his good mechanics and is prone to making bad decisions.

One of the worst decisions I have ever seen happened on play at the 1:23 mark in the video 8:41 left in the first half ball at midfield on a 3rd and 4 play leading 3-0. A flipper int off a blitz where the safety gets home.

6:24 mark in video throws off back foot anticipating pressure off edge.

7:40 mark misses open receiver deep.

At 11:40 mark with the game tied throws terrible pick (3rd of game) Throw came off back foot after for the 2nd time in the game he dropped snap.

Overall in this first meeting with A&M as a Sophomore you could see the talent he is at QB. He commands the LOS, reads defenses, knows where to go with the ball, and given time delivers strikes. Struggled for most of the game with pressure and lost the good mechanics throwing rushed and sometimes off his back foot. Then with the game on the line used his feet to combat the pressure and improvised to make big plays.


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Originally Posted By: Day of the Dawg


In the 2017 game

Early in the video you see the same good traits that struck out from the 2016 video. He makes pre and post snap reads. Quick decisions from the pocket, sneaky athletic ability. But, what stood out for me in this video is his command of the no huddle 2 minutes offense that UCLA was in the entire 2nd half.

At the 1:09 mark throws a great deep ball that not only draws a pass interference but a long completion off of a good play fake.

At the 2:41 mark stands in face of a open blitzer and delvers strike from spot where blitz came from. This is an improvement I noticed from the 2016 game where he throw off his back foot in similar situations.

At the 3:00 minute mark executes a great pump fake to freeze a linebacker and throw a strike to the tight end.

Made back to back plays at the 7:00 minute mark first with pressure in face throws ball off back foot side arm with velocity for a first down.

Next play rolls to left throws again off back foot into a crowd and receiver comes up with the ball. I am giving him the benefit of the doubt here because the receiver seems to be the only person the made a play on the ball. But, pass looked kinda forced. Time and score did dictate forcing throws though.

At the 8:20 mark cleanly grabs a bad snap and delivers a strike to the tight end for a first down.

At the 9:30 mark fakes the spike of ball play for the go ahead touchdown to complete the comeback from a 44-10 deficit.

Does it again at the 8:20 mark executes a pump fake to freeze the linebacker and throws a strike to tight end for big gain.

At the 5:54 mark throws a bad pass more of a bad read that should have been intercepted ball goes thru defenders hands and right to receiver.

After watching both games I would have no issue with Browns drafting Rosen. I see a QB that understands the offense and knows where to go with the ball. Reads defenses pre snap with good crisp quick decisions. Reads defenses post snap showing ability to either move safeties with his eyes or linebackers with pump fakes. He can be influenced into bad decisions and bad throws off back foot with pressure.

Overall I have to compare his game to Eli Manning coming out of college.


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Just my two cents.

When you breakdown "one" game you can fall into a trap. This guy made this mistake in this game. Or WOW watch this game and see how great this guy is.

20 year old college quarterbacks are not going to look or play the same after three years in the pros.

You are trying to project an entire career based upon a few college games.

Sam Darnold threw some int's in 2017. I don't care.

You have to see the forest not a tree.

The pros coach you way better than what happens in college. Look at what great quarterbacks did their first years in the pros. Pretty ugly really.

For me it is all about the true talent the player has not the rough edges. NFL coaches perspective: "What do I have to work with here?"

Does Derek Carr look and play now like he did in college?

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Good stuff, Dawg!

It takes time to do that. All you guys that do it, just wanna throw y'all a BONE!

It's appreciated!

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Good stuff DD and thanks for your contribution!

Are you gonna post your charting for the whole game?

Like I said earlier CHSdawg and myself are still charting out the games I posted earlier so I won't be able to respond to your post for awhile.

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JOSH ALLEN BOISE STATE 2017

http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/10/27/josh-allen-vs-boise-state-2017/


I looked through through schedule and results to intentionally pick a less than desirable game.

Lost 24-14 to Boise State ~ 12 27 131 44.4 1/2 82.6
I hear the same sentence over and over... "makes dumb decisions, not very accurate". TBH, when watching a "highlight" video, you salivate at his size, arm strength, touch, vision, open field running and toughness. I said "Wow, whatever the bad things are, if they can be corrected you have a prototypical championship caliber QB cast out of a mold to play in the AFC North, no two ways about it."

On to the game...


0:04 TD Josh allen being Josh Allen, this is what he does best - making amazing throws on the run.

2:45 RUN looks at all three receivers before he takes off... Tucks the ball and becomes a RB after he crosses LOS. Makes a subtle move to fake defender and gain more yardage (his little stutter steps and head fakes makes him look a lot like Gronk when running the ball).

4:05 INT Pump fake (for no reason, actually probably sold safety on the throw) Overthrown for the INT as the safety made a great read. On the bright side: stood steady as last line of defense and actually made the tackle after a big return. Inaccurate throw into what became triple coverage the biggest culprits here.

4:41 INC Wobbly pass low and behind open receiver, this is (from what I read) the biggest knock on the kid.

5:40 COMP Kid throws a nice dart without overthrowing most of the time. If you watch the two replays you'll also see that he scans the field quickly and thoroughly to find open receiver, this is pretty typical from what I've seen.

6:36 COMP Never afraid of the rush, times a screen type pass to RB well and throws a very catchable ball. Very good at adjusting touch and velocity on most of his passes.

7:36 COMP Sees pressure and flushes out, great instincts ensue and another highlight quality play goes in the books. Again, JA at his finest, making things happen outside the pocket.

9:57 TD On the run, defender all over him, throws across his body. Accurate throw with velocity for a TD. I sometimes think he is better and more accurate throwing on the run. Like Big Ben he kept defender at bay with a couple pump fakes.

NEXT PLAY INC Standing flat footed, easy throw, short distance, fires it at receivers feet. Go figure.

11:33 INT Ill advised pass down by 10 with under a minute left.


OTHER NOTES: Saw four or five sacks. Goes down like Big Ben, not an easy tackle, protects the ball (two sacks were attempted strip sacks that failed).

Has "happy feet" but seems to throw better that way lol.

One of the better college QBs (I've seen) at working through progressions and looking off receivers. Makes decisions very quickly and delivers the ball quickly.

There were several runs that were solid gains, probably should have charted them but did not. Nothing extravagant but he definitely seems to find a lane quickly and maximize yardage without taking punishment.


* This is from http://draftbreakdown.com, I thought all plays would be shown, they were not. Were his best throws and worst throws shown? Don't know.


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Don't sleep on Allen.

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Thank you for sharing ed... wink


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What does his release look like to you? To me from the little I’ve watched of him he reminds me to some extent of Blake Boryles, but with better mechanics. The kid makes a lot of “wow” throws but then leaves you shaking your head. In your opinion from what you e watched are his faults and bad throws something that could be correctable?

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A little long in the windup, overcome by the ball moving very quickly through the throwing motion.

I think most faults are correctable, well, except Tim Tebow's throwing motion. Statistics show that accuracy issues at the collegiate level usual don't go away so easily in the NFL. JA is a strange animal... after watching a few games he seems to have an uncanny trait that is completely counter-intuitive... Much of the time he seems to go through his progressions too quickly. When he gets to his third or fourth receiver he just fires the ball at him, or throws into coverage. After 1.5 seconds in the pocket he is doing 1 of two things... throwing a pass whether someone is open or not (his arm bails him out a lot because he can throw a ball on a ROPE and very often threads the needle... OR flushing out, sometimes for no particular reason at all. Thing is, once he does flush, he is at his most dangerous. Throwing on the run with success, while obviously a trait of having an incredible arm (his arm is elite at ANY level), also gives him time to make an accurate throw. If he flushes out and runs, he is EXACTLY what you want as a QB running the ball - big, strong, fast and just shifty enough to avoid direct hits.

Bill Belichick should consider drafting Allen because it will take two years. He is raw, he throws the ball.. he needs more spin and to deliver more "catchable" balls. He can throw a ball through a tornado but it will look like the same wobbly duck as if he's tossing it 10 yards on the practice field. Not all of the time, but much of the time.

Bottom line. Anyone that argues there is a QB with more upside is a fool (I mean that in the nicest way), but this is a two year experiment. If we trade for Alex Smith and take Allen, I'm fine with it... and excited. If JA and DK are our QBs going into next season without a solid vet QB, we are in big trouble.


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I agree, need a vet. Just haven’t gotten to see a lot of Allen.

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I really don't like Josh Allen. I'm sorry. He reminds me of Derek Anderson, except Josh Allen has better feet.

Both seem to be mid 50's in their college completion percentages though.


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Originally Posted By: edromeo
Games on the que for breakdown/discussion:

This is the full cut-up of the UCLA vs USC game

Finally finished charting this game.

Is anyone interested in discussion of this game?

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Absolutely thumbsup

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So much better than derek anderson.

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Accuracy is currently one of the most subjective and ambiguous 'traits' in the draft process.

It's a label that can applied to anyone.
Even when some draft experts take the time to chart the accuracy for the prospects it dismissed in favor of people's subjective 'eyeball' accuracy test. 

Accuracy is a trait that gets talked about without any attempt at an objective measure or assessment.

Any how Ian Wharton has taken the time to chart for accuracy and I will post his assessments later.

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So hard to evaluate any of these guys purely by stats. I just rely on my "EYE" test to pick the top guy.


Look at the raw numbers below without taking ANYTHING else into consideration about the team the guy was playing for and his support staff.

GAMES- COMP- ATTEMPTS-- %- - YDS---- TD---- INTS Rating
12 ---- 221---- 378--------58.5----2432----17-----23----115.2



Above is Dan Marino's Senior year.
He was NEVER above 60 Percent completion ratio in 4 years of College ball.


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In regard to the USC game I watched the first 4 minutes early this a.m. and have come back to finish and this time make some notes. It's my first game of watching Rosen. Damn the kid throws the ball beautifully. In no order and speed typing:

very accurate and very consistent. I don't know when i last saw a college qb consistently lead the receiver with catchable balls so they can make plays. catching ball away from body even on crossing/slant routes. really impressive. ** How good or bad was the USC defense? ? ?

while he's tall - he looks skinny and thin legged. does not look tough - though threw the ball well when about to be hit - like throw made at 6:48

no real escapability - a statue in the pocket. could easily get hurt in NFL if he's that static and not a lot of pocket awareness.

seems like he had a good set of WR's and pass catching TE - wonder how that compares to someone like Josh Allen.

4:31 - even though it was an incompletion, areally nice throw showing how he leads the WR
5:03 - under pressure and still gets to second read
5:40 - looked like an NFL throw/play. v good
6:48 - immediate pressure and hit but made the throw
9:43 - clean pocket no pressure but an awful decision and throw
11:06 - made me think of Kizer - coz that's a throw Kizer has struggled to make and it seems (to me) to be one reason our TE's weren't as productive with Kizer as they were with other QBs
12.18 - had to wait an awful long time for him to suddenly look like Kizer and have the ball sail.
13:32 - incompletion - but a really great/accurate throw into tough coverage with a man underneath.
14:18 - just a great throw, something he could throw to Josh Gordon 2 or 3 times a game!

Damn impressive.


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Good stuff edromeo.

Rosen vs Allen:

Overall PRE LOS

Rosen 90%... 22% of his attempts are PRE LOS

Allen 83%... 14% of his attempts are PRE LOS


Overall 0-10 yds

Rosen 72%... 45% of his attempts are 0-10 yds

Allen 72%... 44% of his attempts are 0-10 yds


Overall 11-19 yds

Rosen 76%... 24% of his attempts are 11-19 yds

Allen 62%... 26% of his attempts are 11-19 yds


Overall 20 yds +

Rosen 33%... 9% of his attempts are over 20 yds

Allen 33%... 16% of his attempts are over 20 yds


Glaring differences...
Rosen throws a much higher percentage of passes that are behind the line of scrimmage where he has a completion percentage of 90% (Allen 83%). Allen throws a much higher percentage of passes that are over 20 yds, where his completion percentage is 33% (Rosen the same). Although we all know that Rosen is more accurate, this helps explain the large disparity in completion percentage.

Allen completes 62% of his passes between 11-19yds while Rosen completes a very impressive 76%. Wow, when I was working through the numbers I expected this percentage to be much closer. One might argue that this stat does more to explain the disparity than the percentage of longer passes.


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Originally Posted By: edromeo


That is insane accuracy on deep balls to the left side at 62%. BTW I notice the stats are only for a sample size and not their full career. It's still very interesting. Where did they come from?


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Question???

Its says USC vs UCLA 2017 but Rosen completes a pass to Jordan Leslie...isn't that our Leslie that was on our team this year...or am I thinking of Higgins???



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The sample size for the accuracy charts covers the 2017 season. They are from Ian Wharton.

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Originally Posted By: eotab
Question???

Its says USC vs UCLA 2017 but Rosen completes a pass to Jordan Leslie...isn't that our Leslie that was on our team this year...or am I thinking of Higgins???




Jordan Lasley
http://uclabruins.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=5467


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Originally Posted By: edromeo
The sample size for the accuracy charts covers the 2017 season. They are from Ian Wharton.


Thanks for clearing that up!


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different person...Leslie on our team...memory tells me he is kid from BYU???
Lesley from UCLA...got it, I think...lol:D


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