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Originally Posted By: bonefish
I go by what I see.

When you watch him throw the ball it is obvious.

He throws from a narrow base. His throws can hit but when be misses; his throws are crazy wild.

If you are comparing him to Rosen: please.

I don't need stats. My eyes work fine. He is not close to Rosen as a passer.

You can site anything you wish.

I don't believe I am being critical of the guy I am stating the obvious.

I don't care what they run at Louisville. I watched his tape and stand behind my first take.

How he develops is up to him. No different than the others.
Lol, how is it possible to have a discussion when you say you don't care about the stats and you don't care that Louisville actually runs a pro-style passing game?

Based on that standard discussion is impossible...anyone can say whatever they 'feel' and just say you don't care about evidence that goes against your opinion.

I will say this and move on. Many of your opinions about Lamar as a passer are not supported by the film nor the stats derived from the film.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion.

Everyone trusts their "eye ball". But that doesn't make your opinion right...stating your opinion as fact doesn't make you right either. It does however make friendly discussion impossible when you think your opinion trumps facts.

Last edited by edromeo; 04/23/18 11:41 AM.
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j/c...

I can't believe we are still talking about the 5th best QB in this draft as if it has any relevance.

Lamar's prowess is in running the ball. Not passing. This is stated over and over by every football guy I can remember listening to or reading. Yesterday NFL Network reviewed the QBs on Path to the Draft special edition. Again the words came out on Lamar...amazing RUNNER but not not that good in his Passing game. If the kid bulks up to 240 he might have a shot. Don't know how much he will improve on his accuracy over the years but it will not be an easy task. But he is the most intriguing QB in this draft only cause he is truly amazing as a runner from the QB position. No denying that.

Talk about a RPO QB it will be his only saving grace and definitely will be a run option himself. Wish he would be available in the 4th round or something. Heck if so I don't care who our QB is, I would run a 2 point conversion all the time and that would be his role on the team.

jmho but guys, the JOKE is over he is not a good QB, he is a good no, Amazing Runner from the QB position.

He will be a nightmare to defenses. Hope the kid doesn't become damaged good.

Clean Pocket...no one better than Rosen.

Running and scrambling no one better than Lamar.

Good at all is Darnold and Mayfield.

Bust would be high percentage for Allen.

jmho


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Originally Posted By: GrimmBrown
Oh noes, he throws with a narrow base when his true freshman center is bull rushed into his lap over and over or straight whiffs on his man. He'll never be able to fix that. rolleyes

Your eyes may work, but it doesn't mean you know what you are looking at. NFL GMs miss on QBs. Context matters.
I don't understand some posters reluctance to have actual discussions that goes beyond pure opinion.

Originally Posted By: GrimmBrown
Josh Rosen may have gone 0-fer at Louisville this season. Jackson's OL was severely over matched pretty much every week they lined up. Lamar still managed to carry the team to 8 wins.

As a Browns fan, I've seen things go very badly when things break down. It happens pretty often. Josh Rosen doesn't perform particularly well in those situations. Lamar put up good numbers in a season overflowing with those situations.
Using PFF's advanced metrics comparing Rosen and Lamar as passers only:

Passer rating when kept clean:
Josh Rosen 108.4
Lamar Jackson 101.0

Adjusted completion percentage:
Josh Rosen 74.6
Lamar Jackson 73.3

QB fault incompletions:
Josh Rosen 13%
Lamar Jackson 17.6%

Passer rating under pressure:
Lamar Jackson 90.6
Josh Rosen 69.1

Passer rating from play action:
Lamar Jackson 124.8
Josh Rosen 106.2

Passer rating on deep passes:
Josh Rosen 102.3
Lamar Jackson 102.2

Passer rating on non-play action:
Josh Rosen 95.1
Lamar Jackson 93.7

Passer rating on passes 2.6 or more:
Lamar Jackson 86.1
Josh Rosen 85.5

Passer rating on passes 2.5 or less:
Lamar Jackson 108.9
Josh Rosen 107.9

Positively graded redzone attempts/rz comp%/ rz passer rating:
Lamar Jackson 29.6% / 61.2% / 88.9
Josh Rosen 24.7% / 55.4% / 67.8

Offensive line pass blocking efficiency:
Louisville 91st
UCLA 26th

Drop rate:
Louisville 8.6%
UCLA 7.7%

Quote:
The argument against him in general just irks me. Having a critique is fine, but it feels like a lot of people are completely writing him off.
Maybe he'll get get drafted as 3-5th round WR?

Last edited by edromeo; 04/23/18 12:37 PM.
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Thanks for the stats...now what about REAL FOOTBALL.

I think I might take Lamar in a STRAT-O-MATIC Football league, ya convinced me there.


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How is bringing up stats based on performance and situations not "REAL FOOTBALL"?

Good god.... superconfused


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Because it belies the truth of what is on the GAME FILM which is considered Real Football.

Stats are to strengthen what you see on the film.

Not be a statement of HOW IT IS.

Why does every "FOOTBALL" guy in the draft breakdowns state he is not good in the passing game. Then we get thrown STATS that will say differently. So which is the lying variable. Stats or Film?

That is how it is not REAL FOOTBALL. Cause his Passing game on FILM will definitely reflect on his NFL GAME. His "COLLEGE" Stats will not depict what he is as a passer.

Do you get it now. Or am I just a condescending idiot to you as I have been called that lately... not by you but others.

FILM is 99.9% of the evaluation process. STATS is a tool to help verify what you see on film.

Those stats are great that are shown but as a PASSER and lets face it. You have to be a passer to be a successful QB in the NFL. But as a passer Lamar just is no where close as those STATS claim him to be.

And the way it is being depicted is just a flick of the hand...that what is seen on film is FALSE cause we got the STATS saying otherwise. Sorry that is not how it works. Its the STATS that are shown and then the FILM creates them as False.

If you all want to continue with the premise that fool's Gold is worth something. Go right ahead.


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No one is claiming stats are the only path to an answer. This thread is on page 5 and it's third part and people have commented on film AND provided stats.

Just because this most recent post is stats-based doesn't mean it is not "REAL FOOTBALL".

That's crazy.

And for the record, I'm not high on Jackson, but man, but some of these posts..... rofl

I'm not calling you an idiot and got nowhere near that, I might add. But someone referencing stats in a rather lenghy thread is talking "REAL FOOTBALL" just as much as anyone else.


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Originally Posted By: eotab
I watchede almost all of them...did they utilize the RPO...heck yeah. But it wasn't an exclusive system. Just like RPO was not an exclusive system of the Eagles.

Also a note the NFL is a copy cat league. Mayfield will be in demand because of his RPO experience I'm sure. But he threw from the pocket and had a lot more to offer than RPO or he's nothing which you implied.

What happen to Ed putting up a graph of the QBs in a Pocket passing situation. Memory tells me again Mayfield was the most accurate and he had a lot more opportunities than one would think.

Sending you picks cause I'll have to go soon. wink Thank you


I've watched air raid QBs light it up in the Big 12 every year. That's what Oklahoma's offense is based on. The air raid with rpo's and a stretch running game. Baker beat up a very weak big 12 with almost zero NFL talent. And a testament to his skills, he used the same gimmicky offense to beat OSU and almost beat Georgia. He also lost to both teams when he was forced to make progressions and was pressured. I'm just not sure if he can be anything more than a system QB.

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Last edited by edromeo; 04/23/18 12:53 PM.
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See I just watch his footwork, his arm strength his ability to hit the deep out, his ability to move laterally and get his feet properly placed. His release and things of that nature when I assess the QB. I could give two dinks about the Conference the Flavor of the year. Cause that won't hold the water. My cup of waters is judged on all those variables that I see. When I makes an evaluation of Mayfield I am basing it on all those variables. If he has a good football mind he will be able to utilize those tools to most NFL systems.

That's how I do it. Not saying everyone has to. But most NFL evaluators use a similar format. They have much more data available to them then any of us would.

But again you are stating that STATS don't mean much for Mayfield...and they do for Lamar...lol laugh

My evaluation of Mayfield was on all those things I judge a QB by. Actually I've been flabergasted with all the positive stats Ed has been posting about Mayfield. I never knew that and it strengthens WHAT I HAVE SEEN ON FILM! not the other way around.


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Lol, stats for Baker good; stats for Lamar not real football.

Okay.

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Jackson did more with less around him at Louisville.
Mayfield had a superior cast a Oklahoma
I think Jackson still has alot of ceiling to reach as a passer. much room to improve
Mayfield may have already maxed out his room to grow as a qb much like what happened to Brandon Weeden.

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Watching film is great. If your gonna comment on players, it's definitely something one should do. However, just watching the film doesn't mean a whole lot. Are you focused on outcome, are you focused context, or do you try to get the big picture and put it all together?

When everything goes right, every QB should look good. I'm much more interested with how someone deals with adversity. You do have to capitalize when things are there, but things don't go right as often as one would like.


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Originally Posted By: edromeo
Lol, stats for Baker good; stats for Lamar not real football.

Okay.


This thought went through my mind as well.

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Let me put it into basics. It's like Dick Cheney's hunting partner said.

"When Dick is accurate he can shoot a quail down. When he misses, he shot me."


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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Originally Posted By: PitDAWG
Let me put it into basics. It's like Dick Cheney's hunting partner said.

"When Dick is accurate he can shoot a quail down. When he misses, he shot me."


well i guess that rules out darnold then.


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Well of course it does.


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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Originally Posted By: PitDAWG
Let me put it into basics. It's like Dick Cheney's hunting partner said.

"When Dick is accurate he can shoot a quail down. When he misses, he shot me."


Brandon Weeden is the Dick Cheney of QBs.

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Originally Posted By: PitDAWG
Well of course it does.


dont lower your standards now.

its funny watching guys like you, bone, and tab actually refuse to break anything down when it comes to lamar.

got tab talking about arm strength as if lamar hasnt thrown absolute lazers and bombs in his career.


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Lamar just isn't worth the time to break down. He's not. When he's on the money, he's on the money. When he misses he misses BIG.

We're drafting a QB at #1. Lamar isn't going #1. So why bother talking about the 4h or 5th rated QB in the draft? Everybody has said what they have to say.

Let me know in four or five years when he's in the same position RG3 is right now. Because that's exactly who he is.


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he's not close to being RG3.

you're just saying the same nonsense others on the board are with no evidence to back it up.

why? cause you won't break it down and see for yourself.


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Originally Posted By: PitDAWG
...So why bother talking about the 4h or 5th rated QB in the draft?
Lol, because this is the draft forum and you're posting in the Lamar thread. And some people actually like discussing draft prospects.


No one is twisting your arm. If you don't want to discuss him don't...it would be much better then what you're doing now.

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How much further can u break down ... CAN’T HIT THE BROAD SIDE OF A BARN ....

Stats don’t erase what i saw when he THREW THE FOOTBALL ...

We just disagree ... they cant handle that so they pull out stats to claim the higher ground ... we know who stats are for ... wink




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I have seen more tight window throw completions by Lamar than any of the other guys. Yes, occasionally one gets away from him but more throws are on than off.

This comes from a guy who was way down on Lamar following the 2016 season because of his accuracy issues. But the 2017 tape is much improved. And that's tape, not stats.


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Originally Posted By: DiamDawg
How much further can u break down ... CAN’T HIT THE BROAD SIDE OF A BARN ....


I think the red pieces in monopoly are hotels, not barns. Hyperbole doesn't really suit the situation. He's actually shown that he can hit the broad side of a barn. He's shown he can hit a moving target 40+ yards down field in the hands in stride.

Originally Posted By: DiamDawg
Stats don’t erase what i saw when he THREW THE FOOTBALL ...


Wouldn't it be awesome if they did? I think so.

Originally Posted By: DiamDawg
We just disagree ... they cant handle that so they pull out stats to claim the higher ground ... we know who stats are for ... wink


People who work for a living? NFL teams? Sportsbooks?

It's not the disagreeing we can't handle. It's the hyper-focus on the negative and blatant disregard of the positives. It seems kind of like only getting one's world news from Trump's twitter and thinking he or she got the whole picture.

One can watch a lot of football without learning a whole lot. Watching where the ball ended up isn't necessarily as important as how and why it ended up there.

Last edited by GrimmBrown; 04/23/18 07:03 PM. Reason: Changed some pronouns to make things more generalized.

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Originally Posted By: Swish
he's not close to being RG3.


I get the RG3 comparison. But I think that is a lazy comparison. It's easy to compare then because they look alike. They are both tall thin Qb's with strong arms that run really really fast. But RG3 had straight line speed. He couldn't cut. Lamar is very shifty. And I would bet a dollar that he doesn't sustain a major injury in his 1st 5 years in the league because he is very flexible and bendy.


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We have different definitions of the word occasionally ... wink




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We disagree ... its ok ... i dont think hes accurate ... u do... we’ll see ...

Time will tell ...




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wink


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Off target pass % 5 - 20 yards downfield:
(% of passes overthrown/underthrown removing spikes and throw-aways)

Josh Allen - 11.8%
Baker Mayfield - 9.8%
Mason Rudolph - 9.2%
Sam Darnold - 9.0%
Josh Rosen - 7.3%
Lamar Jackson - 5.3%

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Question.

If Jackson is superior in almost every area of playing football, then why is he almost universally seen as the #5 QB, and had to fight against trying out as a WR by more than one team?

I am not arguing, just curious.


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A couple things,

1, He is a dynamic runner and people get distracted by that.
2, They worry about injury with the running
3, He needs a speech therapist so people assume he is stupid.
4, He didn't have an agent so he didn't get the wonderlic questions in advance like everyone else, so he "confirmed" it.

Note: I did not say he was stupid, just that he gives the impression. I have no idea how smart he is or isn't. Plus the wonderlic measures regular IQ which is based off what they are taught in school. That is very different than football IQ. Some people are good at math, others have a knack for picking up foreign languages. They may both have equal intelligence but their knowledge is useful in different situation.


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Its cause the gm’s rely way to much on film and dont give stats their due .... rofl ...




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Originally Posted By: Jester
A couple things,

1, He is a dynamic runner and people get distracted by that.
2, They worry about injury with the running
3, He needs a speech therapist so people assume he is stupid.
4, He didn't have an agent so he didn't get the wonderlic questions in advance like everyone else, so he "confirmed" it.

Note: I did not say he was stupid, just that he gives the impression. I have no idea how smart he is or isn't. Plus the wonderlic measures regular IQ which is based off what they are taught in school. That is very different than football IQ. Some people are good at math, others have a knack for picking up foreign languages. They may both have equal intelligence but their knowledge is useful in different situation.
Or is it because historically in the NFL pocket passers offer more longevity, more sustainability, and tend to have more success?

I like Lamar, I do - But he needs to work on being able to throw from the pocket more consistently and improve his accuracy. The other QBs issues are much more easily to be fixed and at a faster rate than that, IMO. And in a league where you get 1 or 2 years tops to find a QB if you need one - GMs are not willing to wast a top 5 pick on project QB.

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Originally Posted By: YTownBrownsFan
Question.

If Jackson is superior in almost every area of playing football, then why is he almost universally seen as the #5 QB, and had to fight against trying out as a WR by more than one team?

I am not arguing, just curious.
In a word? media.

I don't know that Lamar is superior in almost every area of playing football. That's your premise not mine. There are clearly areas where he's behind some of other prospects. I can tell you why I have him as my top rated QB but can't really speak for others.

Originally Posted By: YTownBrownsFan
...then why is he almost universally seen as the #5 QB,
You must mean why is he almost universally seen as the 5th QB by the media; which may or may not be how NFL team's view him.
For example I know back in early March an NFL went on record and said they have him as their #2 rated QB.

But to answer the question more directly about why draft media ranks him 5th....

-following Bill Polian's early lead

-not having an agent to work behind the scenes and whisper into the ears of draft media

-not signing with a major agency and getting the best pre-draft production team that money can buy

-lack of depth of film study.........working through 5-6 QBs worth of game tape is a lot; so i think there's a fatigue factor and draft media aren't actual scouts asking them to sift through that much game tape is a lot and it easy to get distracted and make snap judgements based on his running

-stigma/stero-types about "dual threat" QBs

-not a polished speaker

-post Heisman scrutiny and lack of a signature big game win like Watson

-draft media is often wrong about QBs (see draft reports on Watson, Dak Prescot, Russell Wilson, Case Keenum etc)
Originally Posted By: YTownBrownsFan
....and had to fight against trying out as a WR by more than one team?
Not sure what this has to do with Lamar's ability to play QB.....I don't know....NFL teams do a bunch of stupid things during the combine. I don't recall Ryan Tannehill being asked to workout at WR and he actually played and was good at WR at Texas A&M before moving to QB.

A team asking Lamar to workout at WR but not Tannehill would be one of those stupid things. NFL teams aren't above of messing with players during the combine.......

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And it was reported he didn't do as well as others on the board with NFL teams.....he's way talented for college- thin frame, runs a lot- getting hit by big, fast, angry MEN- not good for longevity.....GO Browns!!!!


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Originally Posted By: hitt
And it was reported he didn't do as well as others on the board with NFL teams.....he's way talented for college- thin frame, runs a lot- getting hit by big, fast, angry MEN- not good for longevity.....GO Browns!!!!
There have been far more on the record reports saying that he's done well (posted in this thread) that refute that very early dubious anonymous report.

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Originally Posted By: edromeo


Off target pass % 5 - 20 yards downfield:
(% of passes overthrown/underthrown removing spikes and throw-aways)

Josh Allen - 11.8%
Baker Mayfield - 9.8%
Mason Rudolph - 9.2%
Sam Darnold - 9.0%
Josh Rosen - 7.3%
Lamar Jackson - 5.3%


@1:04s
Originally Posted By: Bill Barnwell
"His completion percentage isn't that great for a franchise QB prospect but this is a guy who, when you compare him to those other big 4 QBs in the first round who are going to likely go in the first round, Lamar threw a higher percentage of his passes 5 or more yards downfield then any of those other guys [top 4 QBs] Josh Allen included

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Not trying to convince you or blow my own horn.

I wrote about Jackson in November and went into detail.

I fall back on a documented past when breaking down quarterbacks. Going back over 50 years.

As it relates to this Board and the one that used to be on the official site for a long time.

Been right way more than wrong.

People fall into the trap of what they did in college and not how they actually project into the NFL.

Sometimes it is basic you just see the how and why.

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Originally Posted By: Swish
Originally Posted By: PitDAWG
Let me put it into basics. It's like Dick Cheney's hunting partner said.

"When Dick is accurate he can shoot a quail down. When he misses, he shot me."


well i guess that rules out darnold then.


Sam Darnold Comp % 64.9

Lamar 57%

Deshaun Watson 67.4 (college)

Carsen Wentz 64.1(college)

Michael Vick 56.0 (college)

Deshone Kizer 60.7 (college)

I dont consider myself an expert - but when you cut a QB whose main problem was accuracy, and he had better numbers than the guy some want to replace him - i dont think its a smart move.

Lamar is a special player - I dont doubt that one bit. He is a pure athlete and a freak more than a QB.

Very rare do guys increase their percentage 10 points from college to NFL, no matter what the number of 5-20 yard passes are.

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DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season 2018 NFL Draft Lamar Jackson part three

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