DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum The Browns are Legit Wild Card Sleepers

Because you don't think 5 wins would be utterly disappointing?

Wow do you DAWGS have faith in a 1-31 coach that already jeopardized the Q.B. position by already naming a starter w\o a competition...oh and by the way I believe that TT is the same height as Mayfied ...just sayin

j\c

5.5 Does that mean they only play 2 quarters to win a .5 game ?


LOL just kidding..I know about the push


As far as winning 5 or more..Im always the positive yes they can... Last season I said the Browns would win 9 because there's always that team that surprises..

I kept hearing Gomer Pyle in my head... " GOLLY !" " they didn't win one game..Surprise surprise surprise "

10-6, playoff run in January.

Weird, ain't it?

I'll tell you what has me less negative than in previous years:
we didn't have wholesale turnover in the FO/Coaching Staff. That is huge. After an 0-16 season, firings up & down the chain would have been CLEBrowns 'biz as usual.' DeeJim stayed the course and let things progress for another season. Minimal turnover/minimum upheaval.


So now, we have some (potential) pieces that might work, and better tools for the coaches/coordinators to work with. Year Two begins with zero offseason drama.

I'll tell you- I like your optimism. I really do. I'm still taking a cautious 'wait & see,' because sooooo many of our parts are new, and this is a young, young team. I'll go this far: this 2018 team looks much better on paper, but they haven't yet done a thing on grass.

Let's just say I'm interested to see what's next, without those old familiar feelings of dread and futility.

#fingerscrossed

At this time of year you can speculate anything from 10-6 to 0-16...

It is silly season part 2.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and you can't tell an ugly duckling from a swan...

It's fun internet fodder, but it is only fodder at this point in time.

Opinions are like butts, everyone has one." True, but they're not all full of stool.

Live it up!
Brag on the Browns! Hurry!

Dawgs! We are undefeated. Carry on. Talk among yourselves.

Interesting way to phrase it, Clem...

OK boys and girls

I’ll bet you were hoping for a statistics and probability lesson this morning.

If so, make another coffee, climb into your favorite PC chair, and relax. You’re reading the right post.

Below is a Bell Curve representing the probabilities of the Browns win total for 2018.

Aren’t you excited?

This is based, as it should be, on the Vegas wins over/under for the Browns this coming season.


Here’s how to read this graph.

Vegas says 5.5 wins. That means the greatest likelihood is the Browns will win 5 or 6 games. And these are the highest parts of the graph.

As the graph shows, the chance of this is 38.2% (chances of either 5 wins or 6 wins is each 19.1% + 19.1% = 38.2%)

The odds the Browns will win something other than 5 or 6 games gets less and less as you move away from 5.5 wins.

The chances the Browns will win 7 games (or win only 4 games) is 30% (15% + 15%)

Continuing only on the upside:

Chance Browns finish .500 (8 wins) = 9.2%
Chance Browns win 9 games = 4.4%
Chance Browns win 10 games = 1.7%

And even a .5% chance (that’s ½ of 1%) that the Browns win more than 10 games. This year.

Damn!

I made one small mistake.

These statistics and probabilities are based on the mathematics of the observable universe as man knows it.

Never mind. We're screwed.

Will he quit?

Ben has beat the Browns so often and in so many ways I see no reason for him to quit.

He is a great player.

We are just going to have to beat them straight up.

Hell I would be happy if we could go 500 in division.

Hard to hold back some enthusiasm after playing doormat for so long.

Until I actually see the team play and what they really look like; I don't know. I have never gotten into predicting because the team has been so bad what is the point? I mean 2 wins 5 wins so what?

For me you are either playing for a playoff spot or you are treading water.

I want 9 wins. A winning season damnit.

The team owes the city for the support they have given for the garbage product that has been on the field.

I do think the first four games will mean a lot. If they start losing bad early it will not go well.

Ya ... when i re-read it i had to go check to see if it was really a post by me ... *L* ...

Definelty strange footing ... nice for a change ... hopefully we all come to expect it ....



I completely understand the cautious wait and see ... 100% ... its smart, especially based on our past ...

We have more talent that ever before ... we have a competent QB and thats a HUGE upgrade from last year ... there is no reason to think we shouldn’t win 6 games and 8 is a definite possibility ...

U know what the sad part is Clem ... i’m considered the optomist cause i dont think 8 wins is out of the realm of possibility ... thats a pretty low bar for being considered an optomist ... i’d *L* but now i’ve Managed to depress myself .. good job diam ... *L* ...



Me to on both ...

Odd thing is this year i think we can win some games and more importantly be much improved .... but the one thing that matters the most to our long term success ... barring injury more than likely won’t even see the field this year ..... so the thing i have my fingers crossed the most for ... we more than likely won’t learn a thing about ...

Because I think 5 wins is about all this team is going to win this season.

How is he jeopardizing the position by establishing immediate stability and removing any/all sideshow distractions by not having an open competition?

He's stabilized the position by declaring who it will be and by extension who will be sitting and learning. That's a weird way of jeopardizing things

I think its good that a qb has been named as starter now. Gives the starter stability and confidence

if TT plays lights out.. we might win 3 games this year.

J/C ... I am not sure who will be more disappointed, if we win 8 games this year ...... those who expect us to win 10 ........ or those who expect us to win 3.

I figured with the pretty tough schedule I be ok with 5. Still alot of youth and now another offense installed and added defensive schemes. Better execution and a much better turnover ratio will make.me happy.

I don't expect many wins BUT... I'll be the first one to eat some crow if we get eight wins. I'll do it with a smile on my face too.

How many expect us to win 10 games? I just expect we won't lose 10 games.

This is an optimist expectation.

7 wins?

Slow down.

I refuse. 10 losses needs a new coach.....I don't want that.

lol, me neither! That's why i'm not saying 10 losses needs a new coach.

We just got a bunch of new guys. They have to mesh together. Might take some time.


I like our coordinators a lot (besides Special Teams). I'm going optimistic but keeping Hue on a long leash

Sorry Pete. You can't erase history. 41 losses in 3 years isn't something a coach can survive.

This will be the last I will comment on this as I don't want to hijack the thread.

I'll go with the thought we are a legit sleeper and might snag a wildcard spot.

I think we are looking at 3-4 wins. But I will not be disappointed if we win 8. Far from it.

I'd be thrilled with 8 wins..

general reply...

I'm going to say the same thing I've said the last couple offseasons. It's not about win totals to me, at this point. I just want to see something out there on the field. I want to see our infusion of talent showing up. We're going to have breakdowns and bonehead plays, and we're going to have games where we're still outmatched against the better, established teams. But I want to see our infusion of talent have an impact on the field (make passes/catches, beat defenses, run the ball, have defenses and offenses flustered... etc).

Also, as the season goes on, I want to see obvious improvement in play and consistency as the team/units gel.

I think we have the talent for 10 wins easily, but like people have said it could take time (years) to really gel.

I think circumstance matters a lot for the record.

For instance, that year we went 7-9. Right now 7-9 sounds good, but not when you start 6-3, bench a QB etc.

If we start 1-6, then finish strong and end up around 6-10 that would be good enough to keep his job I think.

Or if we are 6-10 but with 3-4 wins in the division. (with at least one vs Steelers).

It's all on Tyrod. Can he pick up the new offense fast enough? Can he handle the pressure from an insane fan base? This is by far the most talented offense he has ever had the chance to lead. I mean our offense has some serious weapons and should just dominate if we get good QB play. If tyrod can master our offense and gain some quick trust in his teammates then I think we can be one of the top scoring offenses in the league. This year could make Tyrod a very wealthy QB or banish wealth away for good.

Our season and his career is completely in Tyrod's hands.

So I'm just going to say, the Browns are not a legit wild card team.


Do not get your hopes up.

Our bye week is week 11.. if we start 1-6, I'm not sure he will get to see those last 6 games to find out.

Yeah at this stage, if we just keep continuing to bomb - one has gotta say enough is enough...

Pretty interesting post. Using 2 wins as the standard deviation seems reasonable but don't think I ever actually came across that data. Where did you get it from?

Also 5.5 O/U.... I'd bet the under on that. Then again I would have bet on Darnold being the #1 pick, so do this at your own risk.

Agreed.

It seems like there are teams the come out of nowhere to make the playoffs.

Last year, in the AFC, the playoff teams were:

Patriots
Steelers
Bills
Jaguars
Titans
Chiefs

In the NFC they were:

Eagles
Vikings
Falcons
Rams
Panthers
Saints

In 2016, the playoff teams were, in the AFC:

Patriots
Chiefs
Steelers
Texans
Raiders
Dolphins

In the NFC, the teams were:

Cowboys
Falcons
Seahawks
Packers
Giants
Lions


So, in the AFC, only 3 teams made the playoffs in both years, and in the NFC, only 1 teams made the playoffs both years.

There can be a lot of reasons why ..... players are injured, or return from injury ... teams add the right free agents, and/or players in the draft .... new coaches, and so forth, but the fact is that it's hard to repeat as a playoff team, and new teams come up from the bottom as they improve their rosters, and staffs.

The Browns have a ton of young players who were injured, and are coming back this year ... they have added a bunch of free agents to give the team experience, and improve the talent/fit in some important spots, (RT, Secondary, etc) and, of course, the draft.

It might take some time to get guys completely acclimated to the Browns, but why not us? I think that Browns fans are, quite rightly, so hurt by getting our hopes up in the past, that we are unwilling to do so now.

Just a note:

John Dorsey took over the Chiefs in 2013. In 2012, they were 2-14. They had several Pro Bowl players, but they were also filled with holes.

Dorsey took over, and he traded for Alex Smith. Smith was a Tyrod type QB in San Fran. He was a careful, cautious, take no chances player. Dorsey gave up a 2nd, and a conditional pick, and caught hell from the fans for giving up so much. Seems like a bargain today.

He drafted Eric Fisher and Knile Davis.

The Chiefs signed seven unrestricted free agents during the offseason. Six made the team, and five became starters — tight end Anthony Fasano, wide receiver Donnie Avery, defensive end Mike DeVito, cornerback Sean Smith and guard Geoff Schwartz.

“That’s why you dig and dig and dig and watch film, knowing they fit exactly what you’re trying to do,” Dorsey said. “Not only are they good on the field, but they’re good guys, they’re passionate about the game and all the little characteristics you look for in terms of bringing that locker room together.”

The club also signed a host of veterans who had not been retained by their previous clubs, and several became critical contributors, including starting inside linebacker Akeem Jordan; outside linebacker Frank Zombo, who made five starts in place of injured Justin Houston; and safeties Quintin Demps, who led the AFC in kickoff returns, and Husain Abdullah, who had sat out the 2012 season while on a religious pilgrimage and became one of the Chiefs’ top special-teams performers.

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/art...l#storylink=cpy

Past performance, as the TV ads say, is no guarantee of future results, but the parallels are quite interesting. We'll see how it turns out, but I am excited, after being really disappointed last year.

I wouldn't call Smith a Tyrod type. I mean, he had a heckuva run his last year in SF. Finally was coming into his own and all.

Smith took the Giants to the brink in the NFC Championship from what I remember. It was a very good team, but Smith was making plays to Vernon Davis.

I remember that trade and being very frustrated wondering why the Browns didn't make that deal. Maybe I was the only one who saw Smith for what he was (or would become), but I couldn't believe he went for that cheap.


I'm happy with Tyrod, but calling him a "Tyrod Type" seems like a misleading comparison. Maybe Tyrod could be called an "Alex Smith Type". Smith is and was more accurate than Tyrod. He just threw the ball better. He's taller, a little less athletic (but not much), and they're both conservative players.

Tyrod's like a poor-man's Alex Smith. Which explains why he was a 3rd round pick in the trade, as opposed to a high 2nd round pick. It also explains why we tried to give up a 2nd for Alex, and netted Tyrod later with a 3rd

The reason that San Fran traded Smith was that he was unwilling to push the ball down the field, and Kap was.

In 2009 through 2012, Smith averaged 15 TD and 8 INT. In the one year (of these) that he started all 16 games, he threw for 3100 yards. His completion % went up dramatically in 2012, and so did his yards/attempt, but in that year he threw only 13 TD and 5 INT.

He was an "OK" QB, but he was nothing spectacular. He was a very careful, very cautious, don't turn the ball over kind of QB.

In his final season, in 2012, he had Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss, and Mario Manningham at WR. He had Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker at TE, and Frank Gore at RB. Smith was benched in week 10, for Kaepernick. Kap was a much more productive passer, attacking down the field. He was also a better runner, but the reason that Smith was benched (and traded) is that he would not attack down the field.