DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum 2018 Browns win/loss Prediction Thread

So this has been an annual thing on this board since the team returned in 1999. It's always posted after the last preseason game has ended, heading into the season. It gives the fans a place to tell what they think the Browns record will be this season and their reasoning behind it.

It gives us a place to look back at to see how right or how wrong our thoughts and logic was looking towards the season. So I think it's always been a valuable thread.

My expected range of wins falls between 4-6. I think that's keeping it real and I'll explain that as my post goes along.

But my prediction is 6 wins. I consider that to be the upside and my most optimistic prediction I can remember since our return. How did I arrive at 4-6 wins and predict six?

First, we did add a lot of talent. We should be a competitive team from week to week. But the concerns that keep my win total prediction down are very simple ones.

Injuries/depth

While it's true that we've added a lot of talent, this is year one for Dorsey. Rome wasn't built in a day. And as such, while the starters are a lot stronger in many areas, the depth is something that will improve over time. In a couple of years, we should be able to lose some starters without devastating consequences.

You always take a step back when you lose a starter at any position. But until you have the time to build your entire roster, those step back will be far more apparent. That's where we are at the present time. I would point to the OL and secondary as prime examples of that.

Every team suffers injuries. Teams that have had some continuity are better equipped to handle those injuries. We aren't there yet. And in the game of football, there WILL BE injuries!

Schedule

I look at our schedule and as tough as it looked when it first came out, it doesn't look that tough to me now. lol

But what I think our fans need to keep in mind is this..... When a team has more than one year in a system, they begin to develop continuity. I think we even see a hint of it in preseason with our D. Even if their system is new, if their roster is relatively stable, there's a familiarity there you simply can not achieve by bringing in players. It's something that's built over time.

But with QB's like Big Ben, Brees, Matt Ryan, David Carr, Cam and even David Carr, your playing against opponents that have multiple years with their WR's and or systems.

You gain familiarity with those who surround you to the point you almost know what they're going to do before they even do it. That takes time and chemistry that isn't built in a few short months.

I agree with many who say we're a better team. I agree we've added a lot of talent. But I also see the hurdles and limitations we will face along the way. There's a good chance that we may be entering a new era for our team and the future. But we've just begun the journey and aren't anywhere near the finish line yet.

I'll say 5-7 games, so I'll settle on 6.

That is also the most optimistic I've been in at least a half decade.


p.s. I wouldn't rule out us "shocking the world" as was alluded to last season.

We have the talent for 11-5, but the team needs time to gel.

If we win game 1 vs the Steelers, I think we go 9-7 on the season, if the refs give it to them, 6-10, if we lose a close hard fought battle with no ref shenanigans, 7-9.

So mushing that all together I'll go: 8-8

5...but very competitive in 9 of the other 11. 2 stinkers and 2 last-minute-ish losses.

Pit mentioned continuity in his OP. I think the team has some of that defensively in year two under Williams. At least with the front 7. In the back of the defense, I just think we're more talented than we were last year. How much more remains to be seen. Overall the team has to reduce third down conversions and get more takeaways.

Taylor will take care of the ball. The maddening turnovers from last season should be lessened. The receiving talent is improved throughout that whole unit. Haley has undoubtedly held his cards close to his vest so we haven't seen the full potential of this offense. Part of that means not abandoning the run game. The defense should keep scoring close enough to make that possible.

6 to 8 wins.

Pittsburgh - LOSS - they're the best offense in the NFL and they own us
at New Orleans - LOSS - tough road game against a HOF QB
NY Jets - WIN - this better be a win for Hue's sake.
at Oakland - LOSS - they'll be desperate for a win and will have Mack by then.
Baltimore - WIN - toss up game but I'll give us the win at home.
LA Chargers - LOSS - when in doubt pick the better QB. They have more talent.
at Tampa Bay - LOSS - Winston will be back and they have a good offense and DL.
at Pittsburgh - LOSS - I just hope Baker isn't subjected to playing in this game.
Kansas City - LOSS - toss up game probably, but they have a good offense.
Atlanta - LOSS - it'll be tough to defend them and their defense is improved.
at Cincinnati - LOSS - toss up game, but it's on the road. They've looked good in preseason.
at Houston - LOSS - as long as Watson's healthy. Their defense is stout too.
Carolina - LOSS - Our run defense is tested here, but we lose a close one.
at Denver - LOSS - mostly because it's at Denver and we struggle there since ... ever.
Cincinnati - WIN - tossup division game, this time we take it.
at Baltimore - LOSS - they still have a shot at the playoffs, we wrap up a top 3 draft pick.



So, that gives us ... 3 total wins, a fired head coach, a top draft pick to select a LT, and more futility.

I was higher on us about a month ago than right now ... I'm afraid that Tyrod isn't the answer and the wheels will come off once hope is lost.

JMO

Well obviously Taylor isn't "the answer" or we wouldn't have drafted Baker.

But he's not one to turn the ball over and is an average starter at best. That's far better than anything we've had in a long time at the position.

If you just look at ball security and a better D I think we end up with better than 3 wins.

I will say 5-11.

I feel like this is our year to come back strong. I predict we win the division and make the playoffs. 12 wins.

Six wins

best case 8-8, realistically prob 5-11. Dilly Dilly

5-8 wins.

I'm feeling pretty good about this team. The defense looks like it could be really good. That's always a nice place to start. Taylor isn't going to turn the ball over. That alone would have given us a couple of wins last year. I also think that we'll be able to run the ball. Our %$#^*() Kicker (thanks Todd Haley, you *&%$#!!) cost us a game last year. I think he'll be much better this year.

So. I see 5 or more wins.

5-6 wins. I posted all the reasons in the Optimistic thread.

There is at least one thing that I didn't mention on that thread, though. I think the schedule is pretty damn hard. I know that "it's a new year, blah, blah, blah..." but it does look pretty rough.

I'm going with 7-9. Just because. Still a losing record, but also just enough to keep the "wait 'til next year" vibe.

After all, we wouldn't want people to stop arguing on this board. What would we possibly do with ourselves?

Pittsburgh - LOSS -
at New Orleans - Win - I think we win one of the first 2.
NY Jets - WIN -
at Oakland - Loss
Baltimore - WIN -
LA Chargers - LOSS -
at Tampa Bay - Win -
at Pittsburgh - LOSS -
Kansas City - LOSS -
Atlanta - LOSS -
at Cincinnati - Win -
at Houston - LOSS -
Carolina - Win -
at Denver - LOSS -
Cincinnati - WIN -
at Baltimore - LOSS -



5 or 6 wins. 2 wins against Cinci will be tough but it's doable.

Man .... are u in for an AWESOME SUPRISE!!!

BANK IT dawg ...

6 & 10, perhaps 5 & 11.

I hope we can do better than that but that's sure better than last year!

I was thinkin' the same thing!

9

I'm stoked for the season, I just hope they win the damn opener! I went very high in my prediction because If I say 7 they win 5, if I say 5, they win 3... So 12. I say they win 12.

[q uote=DiamDawg]Man .... are u in for an AWESOME SUPRISE!!!

BANK IT dawg ...

[/quote] i'm counting on you Diam

7-9
All the time I'm swimming in the waves of talent and tanning in optimism!

10 win 7 loss lose the wildcard game.

if the Browns defense can make Big Ben miss games this year its a 8 win team.
if not I see 6 wins.
The 1st 2 games are true barometers for the defense.
no way does Taylor out play Brees or Ben so special teams and defense have to play big.
come out 2 and 0 its a 10 win season.
but I dont see it.
Greg Williams big ego will want him to try to blitz Ben and Drew and they will pick the defense apart.
the Saints defense is really underated.great secondary.
the Browns will play most teams close.
6 wins. 2 in the North which is a start.

I'm gonna say 7 wins and like 10 games will be decided by 7 points or less

My prediction is 6-10.

3-3 in the division.

A non-double digit loss season would be much better and I don't think that's a completely unreasonable expectation given the talent on the roster. And honestly, 6-7 wins is setting the bar real high.

6-10

I'll include preseason games as well........

After it's all said and done.....

21-2

Barring significant injury...

10-6 or 9-7

and our first Super Bowl appearance ever....

5-11, 6-10 if we get some good bounces of the ball. Even though I feel this team is better than last year’s, the schedule is just really tough.

2-14

With a decent head coach this should be a 7-9 team at the very least.

Hugh is NO head coach. He is an embarrassment.

Why be a downer, I think they could be "worse" than last year,

I'll be happy for any success they get, but until I see it, why should I believe it.

LOL............you always "like" your own posts.

6-7 wins.

13-3 and we beat ATL in the Super Bowl.

Wake me up when this dream is over.

I'll wake you up when we're 0-4 and your prediction doesn't hold water