HOW THE BROWNS COULD AFFORD GERALD MCCOY
How are the Browns amassing talent? By paying for it. Why were they lacking talent before? Partially because they were saving money for talent now.
The fact that the Browns are able to bid for the services of defensive tackle Gerald McCoy -- who likely will command something in the area of $10 million a season and could make a decision Tuesday with the Browns a real contender for his services -- is a direct reflection of the fact that the Browns rolled over more salary cap money than any team in the league.
They’re on track to have eight players among the top 200 salary-cap hits in the league, when only the Los Angeles Rams (10) and Minnesota Vikings (nine) have more. How can the Browns still potentially add McCoy, who could become their ninth player in the top 200? Because they didn’t waste salary-cap space on mediocre players in 2016 and 2017 while attempting to be mediocre instead of awful.
They actually didn’t even spend money on some solid players, those who could have helped them go 2-14 instead of 0-16. As a result, they can now chase a player who could help them reach the AFC Championship instead of losing in the first round of the playoffs.
For instance, I’m not saying cutting Joe Haden before the 2017 season, when Hue Jackson and 90 percent of the fan base freaked out, is what is allowing the Browns to pay Olivier Vernon, Sheldon Richardson and Odell Beckham as new additions, while still pursuing McCoy … but moves like that sure are part of it.
This isn’t another Sashi Brown story from me. It’s only a description of the now, and a team that is spending more than $211 million this season on players ready to help them win. That’s more than any other team in the league, according to the salary-cap figures from spotrac.com, the excellent site for all financial issues in professional sports.
In what spotrac calls the cap space allocated to active players, the Browns lead the league as one of five teams over $200 million. In the rest of the AFC North, Pittsburgh is at $197 million, Cincinnati $191 million and Baltimore $166 million.
Again, why should the Browns be division favorites? "Because their roster costs more" isn’t a terrible answer.
Yet the Browns are still in the top five in the league in remaining cap space. How? Because they rolled over more cap space than any team in previous years. How? By not wasting it on players who weren’t going to make them a playoff team.
Teams must spend 89 percent of the salary cap over a four-year period. But if you save some money in one year, you can use it the next year. Right now, John Dorsey and the Browns are using it. That’s how the Browns can have these eight players among the top 200 cap hits.
26. Odell Beckham, $17 million
40. Olivier Vernon, $15.5 million
62. Jarvis Landry, $14.05 million
147. Sheldon Richardson, $9.67 million
163. Damarious Randall, $9.07 million
172. T.J. Carrie, $8.9 million
188. Myles Garrett, $8.29 million
192. Christian Kirksey, $8.2 million
Now let’s look at how many Browns ranked among the top 200 cap hits in the league in previous years, with a reminder of what that number of high-paid players meant to the team’s record.
2018: 4 in the top 200 (7-8-1)
2017: 4 in the top 200 (0-16)
2016: 3 in the top 200 (1-15)
2015: 8 in the top 200 (3-13)
2014: 7 in the top 200 (7-9)
2013: 7 in the top 200 (4-12)
What do those numbers tell us?
To me, it shows that the Browns for years were paying a lot of players who helped winning only to a small degree -- that’s how you get eight highly paid players and a 3-13 record in 2015. It also explains how the Browns can be spending so much now, because they had half as many highly paid players the last three years.
Look, for instance, at the eight Browns among the top 200 cap hits in 2015.
35. Joe Haden, $11.7 million
49. Joe Thomas, $10.2 million
80. Paul Kruger, $8.2 million
86. Alex Mack, $8.0 million
121. Desmond Bryant, $7 million
142. Donte Whitner, $6.75 million
150. Tramon Williams, $6.5 million
186. Karlos Dansby, $5.5 million
If you don’t think players like Kruger, Bryant, Whitner, Williams and Dansby can make you a playoff team, then you can’t keep them around at those prices. Four of those five didn’t play for the Browns after 2015, and Williams was gone after 2016. But there’s also no point in replacing them with players of equal talent and salary if they’re getting you nowhere.
So the Browns saved.
Here is their rollover cap money from the last six offseasons.
2013 into 2014: $24.5 million
2014 into 2015: $18.9 million
2015 into 2016: $20.7 million
2016 into 2017: $50.1 million
2017 into 2018: $58.9 million
2018 into 2019: $56.5 million
In each of the last two offseasons, the Browns rolled over more cap space than any team in the league. That won’t be the case next offseason. The Browns are spending, and spending smartly, they hope.
But they were also spending for the sake of spending in previous seasons. And then that stopped.
Their 2016 rollover of $20.7 million was a lot, the third-most in the league. But in 2017, the $50.1 million rollover led the league, $10 million more than any team.
The 2018 rollover of $58.9 million made the Browns and 49ers the only two teams rolling over more than $31 million.
The 2019 rollover of $56.5 million led the league again and made them and the Colts the only teams with over $35 million of rollover.
The rollover stays with you. So, for instance, when the Browns rolled over $24.5 million into 2014, then only had an $18.9 rollover into 2015, that means they were actually over the regular cap in 2015 -- and they ate into their rollover.
What happened then was the Browns made a huge jump in their savings between 2016 and 2017, adding $30 million to it. Then the Browns held that amount, and added a bit to it, while biding their time on when to spend it.
That created a huge edge, and now the Browns are cashing in.
The other component of this is one we have written about a lot and will continue to write about: the fact that the Browns are in the midst of a relatively cheap contract with their franchise quarterback.
Of the 15 teams in the league with at least seven players making $8 million or more this season, all but four count a quarterback as one of those expensive players: Only Dallas (Dak Prescott), Chicago (Mitch Trubisky), the Jets (Sam Darnold) and the Browns do not.
When your most important player isn’t among your most highly paid, that’s another edge. That’s why the Browns are in a window to win right now in the next three years, before Mayfield’s salary will balloon.
But you really change the game by adding the franchise QB money you’re saving now to the money you already saved in the past.
That’s how you get a $211 million team to believe in.
3 BROWNS WHO ARE BIG PARTS OF THEIR CAP NOW, WHO WON’T BE IN THE FUTURE
The Browns are paying right tackle Chris Hubbard good money again this season. They'll have to figure out whether to keep doing it next season.
3. The tackles
Almost all of the most expensive players would apply here. Kirksey would cost almost $10 million on the cap in 2020, or $2.4 million to get out of his deal. The Browns may move on.
Randall is in the final year of his rookie deal as the fifth-highest-paid Brown, and nothing has happened yet in regards to his future.
The three-year deal Richardson signed is really a two-year deal because it costs so little for the Browns to get out of year three, so he might be 2019, 2020 and gone.
But that’s how it works. For years, the Browns didn’t have enough players worth spending money on. Now, they’ll have too many.
So left tackle Greg Robinson and right tackle Chris Hubbard both have to prove they’re worth the money this season. Robinson signed a one-year, $7 million contract and will be a free agent this season. Actually, the window to retain him may be quite small. If he’s too good, the Browns probably can’t afford him, and if he’s not good enough, they won’t want him.
Hubbard is a $7.3 million cap hit this season in year two of the five-year contract the Browns signed him to before last season, luring him away from Pittsburgh. He’s due to make $7.3 million again in 2020, or the Browns could cut ties and take a $2.4 million cap hit.
So it’s Robinson and Hubbard protecting Mayfield on the edge this year. It’s hard to imagine both back in 2020.
2. T.J Carrie
His huge four-year, $31 million contract hasn’t transformed the defense, but the Browns had to ride it out through at least this season. They would have taken a $10.2 million cap hit otherwise. But after this season, that changes. The Browns can easily get out of this deal without much penalty after this season.
The Browns have said they want five corners they can rely upon, and Carrie did rank fifth in defensive snaps a year ago. He’s been sticking at that slot corner position in OTAs, while Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams and Terence Mitchell have manned the outside. Slot corner is a vital spot, but maybe not at an $8 million cap hit for a team that may start feeling a squeeze next year.
1. Olivier Vernon
With a cap hit of $15.5 million this season in year four of a five-year contract he originally signed in New York, Vernon will carry the same big number in the final year of his deal next year. The
Browns view him as a game-changer paired with Myles Garrett, but if he stays beyond these two years, at which point he’ll be 30 with nine years in the league, it would have to be at a reduced rate. Because by then, the Browns would need to pay Garrett.
The Browns could even get out of Vernon’s contract after this season with no dead cap hit. But most likely, this pairing of a veteran defensive end and young defensive end will change in 2021, with Garrett becoming the veteran and the Browns looking in the draft for an end to become the younger, cheaper option.
The Browns are done saving. Now they’re paying. But at some point, they won’t be able to pay everyone. Tough decisions are ahead -- but that’s a price you’ll happily pay for a playoff push you’ve been saving for. In the moment, that saving gives the Browns a real shot at McCoy.
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