DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Player movement, off-season

DePo's secret analytics weapon!...

OBJ DVOA Ranks:
2019 - 57
2018 - 37
2016 - 52
2015 - 27
2014 - 9

It's not a matter of psychoanalysis. It's whether or not (or how much) you believe the rumor-mill articles about Dorsey from KC and here.

When speaking of Dorsey, though, that isn't really a messageboard diagnosis.... it's out there from people that worked with him and know what went on inside the offices at KC. He established himself as such, and there are zero indicators that he wasn't continuing to be that person here in Cleveland.

He does NOT communicate well (hence his split with Reid who is all about communication and working together); he just decides stuff and goes and does it without consulting or informing others. Certainly within his powers, but not helpful when trying to build something.

If we want to go all psychoanalysis, I'd say that he has control issues and is a Lone Wolf type that exists in his own mental bubble. He's still great at most things he does, but that isolation keeps him from acting as part of the team; he isn't a leader as much as a despot.

I just find it odd how people think the NFL structure has gone through some kind of metamorphosis. In some places, depending on circumstances, maybe it has. Yet in other places not so much.

In what one considers the standard NFL structure the GM is the boss second only to the owner. The HC works under the GM.

Yet we see this scenario presented as if what happened in KC is somehow a one sided story where Dorsey is at fault. Nobody seems to consider that it looks just as much as if Reid was making a power play to take away and control some of the GM duties from Dorsey.

The only real difference here is that I can see how it could have played out either way. Others? Not so much.

So if it was Reid that got fired, the Chiefs would still be SB Champs this year?

Reading is fundamental.

It could look that way, but when the view being presented of Dorsey is outside of Reid while you have multiple people all saying how Reid is the sort that communicates well, it does lend it a bit more credence.


And no, the structures have no undergone metamorphosis. They're the same as it ever was, even here.

As for "analytics", it has been around for decades; since the first use of a stopwatch to time rookies in the 40-yard dash.... the only change is in that modern technology lets us measure so much more than straight line speed without pads; computers let us do that analysis in real-time, and databases
of this information allow us to store and query all the historical data we can gather, which allows for models and algorithms to be corrected and validated against larger sets of data with known outcomes, making them better, clearer predictors.

None of what we're doing is new, none of what we're doing controversial.
There are only misunderstandings of what we are doing.

I don't believe that I even mentioned analytics?

Reid could be a great communicator. He could have communicated very well that he was slowly taking over part of the GM's authority. Of course that also means he would not have used the word undermining in his description.

Would Mahomes look like the Mahomes we've seen if he'd been thrown in the fire his rookie year? Or would he have looked like Kizer under Hue?

Probably somewhere in the middle. Dorsey would have probably pressured Reid to get his guy on the field right away.

The pick was great. The patience, cooperation, and, dare I say it, alignment weren't there.

Dorsey was a good player picker, but a lousy executive. Planning, contracts, discipline, teamwork, and cohesion were not his strengths.

This is what pure speculation with zero evidence to base it on looks like.

You did not. I added it simply because it is seemingly endemic to every discussion about anything to do with this team lately.

If anything there is evidence in the opposite direction. Dorsey traded for Tyrod Taylor so that Baker wouldn't have to start the season.

But traded Carlos Hyde to get Nick Chubb on the field!

Typical.

Oh no!

Like I said, reading is fundamental. But since you obviously need an explanation anyway, I'll explain it to you.

Context is important. My post makes it rather plain that I believe that it just as easily could have been Reid that made a power play for taking powers away from Dorsey. People don't seem to consider that as a possibility.

That has zero to do with your comment.

You're welcome.

My bad. Sorry to bother you.

I suppose that's fair. I was thinking more about the Harris/Thomas type guys he brought in that got a good bit of playing time but didn't really seem to earn it on the field. Guys he didn't bring in, like Higgins, getting sidelined.

Dorsey just seems to be very opinionated, and doesn't seem to care about anyone else's plan. Even those he's supposed to be working with (maybe especially those...).

This is coming from the guy that posted a 2016 article in the another thread and thought it was relevant to the topic and time.

ReAdINg iS FuNdAmEnTaL.

Well said. In my terms, people don't like working with the guy.

I mean early on, he made it a point to say the old regime didn't get real football players, yet two of those guys were still employed, working for him.

Sorry, just a very rude thing to say....but they won out and doofus lost.

Things work out in the end.

It seems you tend to pick and choose who you have a problem with that says rude things.

You have serious issues.

Just practice what you preach.

As if somebody died and left you boss. Try being a poster and not some board poice. Nobody is listening to you but arch and device.

How wrong you are....again.

Proof yet once again that delusion of grandeur is a thing.

From Albert Breer's Article referencing NFL possible player cuts:



I think this $11.5M figure is incorrect and it is $15.5M (according to Spotrac and OTC) and there would be zero dead cap money in cutting him.



$2.4M in dead cap to eat.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/02/10/super-bowl-liv-kansas-city-chiefs-breakdown-of-key-defensive-plays

I think there are easier ones to make, quite frankly, but the savings aren't as high:

1. Chris Hubbard: $4.8M in 2020 cap savings, if I read the numbers correctly. Only $2.4M in dead cap.

2. TJ Carrie: $6.3M in cap savings and $1.8M dead cap.

I understand the idea for cutting Vernon. If so, I hope we have a plan for a "replacement". Dude has been injured a lot recently, much like Kirksey so I see why they are both on the list. Perhaps a contract restructuring for Vernon from $15M to something significantly smaller could be in the works and if he actually plays healthy....lucky us. If not, cut him.

And I think the Kirksey cut might be more difficult with the uncertainty of Schobert's future on this team.

** Not sure on all the numbers **

Other potential cuts:

Demetrius Harris: $2,487,500 in cap savings and $1M in dead cap. PFF grade 45.0

Adarius Taylor: $2,440,625 in cap savings and $500K in dead cap. PFF grade 41.7

Eric Kush: $2,075,000 in cap savings and $350k in dead cap. PFF grade 45.4

Terrance Mitchell: $3,000,000 in cap savings and $666,668 in dead cap. PFF grade 63.1

Kendall Lamm: $2,350,000 in cap savings and $300k in dead cap. PFF grade 69.1

Morgan Burnett (depending on health and how they see Burris): $3,375,000 in cap savings and $1,325,000 in dead cap. PFF grade 67.8

That's a total of $15,728,125 in cap savings and $4,141,668.

I'm not sure about cutting Lamm as he can provide depth, as well as, Mitchell, but those are the potentials cuts that stood out.

They could also roll over some of this cap to 2021 when it's going to be time to start re-signing some of the core players, i.e., Garrett, Ward, Chubb, Baker.

We'll see what happens.

I'd like to keep Mitchell as well.

I think we'll keep Carrie. There is really no reason not to, and he has experience with our new DC. (who Carrie credits with turning his career around)

The reason to not keep Carrie is his salary might outweigh his value on the field. Especially if we find a way to actually play our best three corners.

We are not starving for cap savings, and it makes little sense to cut a quality slot corner just to save a few bucks.

Is he quality? I don’t know.

I wonder if Carrie gets a look at safety.

The numbers for TJ Carrie in 2019:

28th highest paid DB. As of now, he'd be the 23rd highest DB in 2020.
PFF Grade: 56.4
Passer Raing Allowed: 113.9 (NFL Rank #50)
Catch Rate Allowed: 66.2% (NFL Rank #59)
Pass Break Ups: 2 (NFL Rank #72)
TDs Allowed: 4 (NFL Rank #43)
Yards Allowed: 564 (NFL Rank #33)
Yards per Reception Allowed: 11.5 (NFL Rank #20)
Coverage Rating: -11.7 (NFL Rank #66)

Link and additional stats below...

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/t-j-carrie/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2019/average/cornerback/

I agree. Vernon is the big one.

He is 30, has missed significant time the last few years....he is on the downward spiral. Let someone else gamble he will be able to play.

It isn't hard to replace a guy who doesn't play much.

Compared to some, no, but they make a lot more.

we would be cutting 4/5 of the team from last year if that was the case.

we don't really need cap relief. We need a coach to coach this underperforming 10 win team

Yikes, isn't that a sobering thought.