DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Baker Comparisons

I'd like to know your thoughts on FK seemingly getting away from "what the guys could effectively run (2018)" and his move (to my eyes) to make his a big-play, high octane (2019).

I have conflicting thoughts. I understood why he wanted to run a lot of 11 personnel. It probably still is, but I haven't researched it this year to know if it's true, but 11 Personnel was the most widely used package in Baker's rookie season. I posted those numbers in the Offensive Scheme thread from last year. Sean McVay from the Rams was everyone's darling and that is what he ran. I think Freddie also knew that teams would adjust to what they were doing after he took over as OC the year before.

On the other hand, it was a disaster. Our OL had some weak spots and the lack of extra protection hurt. Also, it did not fit Baker's strengths and highlighted his weaknesses. The team was also hurt by all the distractions and things never went smoothly.

I was not a fan of the Stefanski hire, but I think he is doing a very good job of getting the most from Baker. Lower risk passes, a lot of running, rolling Baker out, etc. I like what he has been doing thus far.

With that said, we played 3 bad football teams and one very good team. Got smoked by the good team and did well against the crappy teams.

The next two weeks should give us a better picture. Indy has a good defense, but they are banged up. They do have two DEs that could give our tackles some problems. After that, we play Pittsburgh and their D is no joke. I think they really get after qbs. That game in particular should tell us a lot about the Browns.

Everything I read in your last post, I keep getting the same message.

The Browns defense is the key in the next two weeks.

The Browns defense is the key to winning the game vs the Colts.

And The Browns defense is going to be the key in the game against the steelers.

At some point, the D has to carry the O. But I don't see anyone at this point stopping them per se perhaps slowing them down a bit.

I don't think the D has to win the game for us, I don't think they have to carry the team .... but they need to put us in position where 28 points wins the game. Scoring over 30 to win the game is a tough call for an offense week in week out.

I said this before in another thread, but I can see how this defense could be effective as a complement to the offense if both continue to grow. The D could be one that, though it won't win a game on its own, can function as one that will give the ball to the O a couple times a game, and then pin its ears back when the other team starts trying to play catch-up.

This D just needs to hold the other team to 38 points,(Oh NO), Hopefully less, Cincinnati scored only 30.

The offense has to go out and score more than 38.

Scary but that's been the case so far.

The Recipe doesn't change.

It felt to me that last year FK out-smarted himself doing what he probably thought was staying a step ahead of the defense. But the devil is in those details - mostly things you mentioned there - and those details never got in-line...and I can imagine that the more "it" failed the more stubborn he got.

Inexperience, ego and stubbornness are not a good mix.

I was leery of the Stefanski hire due to BBFS and his likely (and sense proven) preference to also call plays...but he is winning me over.

These next three games will tell us a lot about this team and the coaches/coaching.

And...now I'm stuck wondering what "BBFS" could mean.

Big Bad Football Smarties?

I believe this to be true. I highly doubt we win both the Colts and Pit games - if we end up losing both games which is entirely possible.... what does the team look like, how does KS respond, what does the play calling look like, are we still disciplined and keep penalties down, does all the 'good' go out the window as we panic and make knee jerk reactions? Do we continue to put ourselves and players in the best situations to be successful?

The Colts game in particular is a big game for Joe Woods - this isn't a dynamic offense. Are we going to make them look like all stars are we going to do enough to slow them down?

Joe Woods is working with scraps at some key positions.

Context.
" I was leery of the Stefanski hire due to BBFS."

I think:

Browns bad football syndrome,
Bill Bellichic fudge sycles?

BBFS: New Coach Fatigue syngrome?

Bad Blood for Stefanski?

BBFS: Browns, Big-man-on-campus, Freddie Kitchens, syndrome,

Barrack, Beat down, Football, Series. <google must have come up with that one.

: Big Bad Freddie Sympathy:

He probably meant Browns Battered Fan Syndrome.

Sorry, I see no letup in this group. Finally after so many years we have talent and a staff that is getting the kind of production out of this group we really should have seen a year ago.

This team has swag and you can see they believe in themselves and each other, their a team. Coaches, players, front office they believe.

Will they lose again, very likely! Will they have mistakes and have to get themselves up and go back to work? Yup, but they believe.

Every single game we play will prersent a new set of challenges to overcome and I am convinced beyond a doubt its right this time. The Cleveland Browns have arrived, finally thankfully. I fully believe that it will never be perfect. That all said I fully intend on enjoying the ride.

I know technically this season's Super Bowl will be played in 2021, but I can't think of of a more fitting way to sum up 2020's list of "Things No One Expected to See" than for the Browns to win the Super Bowl thins year.

Getting back to Baker, I saw something just a few minutes ago that is relative to some of the things I was saying.

I was reading the Game Day forum and P-Dawg and 4-Life were talking about how fast Rivers gets rid of the ball. I was skeptical, so I did a search. NFL NextGen Stats is the place for such information and sure enough, Rivers gets rid of the ball in 2.45 seconds, which is 4th quickest in the league.

I decided to see Baker's Time to Throw. He has been holding the ball longer than any other qb on the list at 3.22 seconds.

Our OL is playing very well, but Indy has two good edge rushers in Buckner and Houston. The following week, Pittsburgh w/TJ Watt comes to town. Hopefully, Baker improves that stat quickly.

The browns are good this year.

Which is why COVID will be shutting the season down shortly.

My question is, and I'll try to research it a bit, but how much more to we roll out compared to other teams? Rivers isn't going to roll out much. Baker does much better when we roll him out, which will take longer for him to get rid of the ball.

But odds are he holds it a little longer either way, I'm just curious how much that factors in.

This ^

The other suggestions were good as well.

That's a good question. Roll outs obviously impact the average time to release the ball - I'd guess play action would too. We know that in his rookie season Haley was calling a lot of plays that took a long time to open / develop... that's another factor. Versus timing passes like quick slants and short underneath throws.... I have not seen the Colts, it'll be interesting to compare in one game the two QB's and how long they hold the ball and whether there are open receivers Baker doesn't see or is too slow to process or go through progressions etc... or what the issue is.

I've been curious about that in the past and seem to remember coming to the conclusion that the offensive play calls/scheme does have an impact just by reading the list.

And no, that doesn't change much, Baker IS holding the ball too long.

Please post a link, if you can Vers, I'm having a hard time finding current stats.

Honestly i don't think we need the stats to tell us if he holds the ball too long. Just watch games and your eyes will tell you that. There's no pat on the back moment here. This isn't about whether Baker is a good QB right now because he's not. It's about whether he can be or not in the future.

I don't know if Stefanski likes Baker or not. He borderline refuses to answer questions about Baker when asked. He always frames the answer in terms of the whole team. "Coach, what does Baker need to improve on?" "Our whole team needs to improve." The guy flat out refuses to discuss Baker unless it's talking about his soft skills...leadership, works hard, etc.

I don't know if that means anything or not. If the record is as good as I think it will be then it's unlikely we draft another QB. Free agency will be interesting at the QB position.

Baker just needs a light switch moment. I hope it comes sooner than later so the organization isn't seduced by going in another direction.

You will have to navigate just a bit. Go to the link and you will see the "Passing Leaders." It has all the QBs and there are many columns. You will have to click on "TT" which stands for "Time to Throw." You can then see the list of QBs there.

I probably won't be back on until tonight, so I won't be able to answer any further questions until then. I like to watch the games w/out distractions.

Oh crap, in my haste, I forgot the link...LOL

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing

Thanks. Enjoy the games!

Yeah, it's tough to arrive at anything conclusive with this stat. Eye test rules - and we all know Baker is taking too much time.

Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson and Josh Allen all in the bottom six. At least the three of them are a threat to run though, Baker is not.

Strange to see Dwayne Haskins at the top, I guess if you can only lock on one target, it shouldn't take long to throw.

haha that was good

Good stuff man...I think that truly stems from two issues...Bakers lack of seeing the field and his read progressions...As he does look very shaky in a clean pocket once his 1st read is taken away, gets that scared stuttered look...scrambles around prematurely, then the play is usually a waste by then (he usually is either sacked or throws it away)...and like you said hopefully he fixes that over the course of the year...as that is vital to his play.

I think its just taken a couple years of Baker learning that he isnt the team stud and realizing its time to manage the game and get the ball to the Superstars instead of trying to carry the team the team himself. Its a hard learning curve when you had a collegiate career of taking the game completely over and carrying his team to victory. He excelled in college but this is the NFL players are faster, smarter, stronger and where he dominated the NCAA he is just mediocre in the NFL. Glad to see he has settled into this role and hopefully if team management keeps improving the roster as they have he may have a great career in Cleveland.

This is....not right.

Judging by some of the posts on other threads, I feel I have to say that I am not going to get into the personality battles w/certain other posters that want to throw words around like "agenda."

Here are some of my latest observations/thoughts.

--I thought Baker did a better job w/his progressions yesterday. There was one play where he was looking over the middle and quickly through a pass out to the right flat. It was quick. Impressive. I also saw him do a better job on other occasions of being quicker w/his reads.

--I do think he held it too long on some occasions.

--I thought he made some plus throws. His arm strength was showing. When he steps into a throw, it's a laser.

--I thought he missed some throws that should have been completions. He is almost always high when he misses.

--I think he made a great read and throw on the TD to Higgins.

--I thought as the game went on, he became more careless w/the ball. He forced some throws and was bailed out by the receiver making a great catch or by the defender missing what should have been a pick.

--For the second straight week, he was bad in the 4th quarter. Dan Orlovsky was on "Get Up" earlier this morning talking about Baker's play. He shared the good and the bad. I tried to find the video for that, but it is not up yet. Orlovsky gave Baker's 4th quarter numbers for the last two weeks and said they were the lowest in terms of QBR in the entire league. As we know, Baker really struggled in the 4th quarter last year. Do a quick search and you will see all the articles about it.

--The most concerning thing is that I am beginning to wonder if the coaching staff trusts Baker in crunch time. Last week, Baker had a bad 4th quarter and when Dallas mounted a furious comeback, Stefanski chose to run an end-around w/OBJ instead of relying on Baker's arm. That's one play. But yesterday, we started off w/Hunt who ran for a first down on the first play. Two more running plays followed. I forget the exact yardage, but I think it was 3rd and 8 and Stefanski did not allow Baker to throw. Instead, we gave it to D'Ernest Johnson, who broke off a long run. I don't think we threw it one time. Like Orlovsky said today and I have been saying for a few weeks, there are going to be times when the Browns need Baker to make plays at the end of games. He hasn't been doing that and Stefanski isn't even calling his number. I think this is significant because this team is loaded w/talent and can easily be a playoff team and probably more, but they need the qb to be able to carry them at times, especially as the games become more meaningful.

I agree with just about all you're saying. The only potential argument is the 'coaches not trusting Baker' part. It's hard for me to come to that conclusion with our running game and the talent we have toting the rock (even with Chubb out). Our offense is what it is... we are geared for (and very good at) running the ball.

If anything, Stefanski put the ball in Baker's hand far more and far earlier this game than I was expecting. The talking heads mentioned this in the first half... at some point in the second quarter, they said they were surprised Hunt only had so many carries.

While I disagree with you on point of Stefanski's trust in Baker, I wholeheartedly agree with Baker's performance late in the game (which might have really been the crux of your argument anyway). Dude needs to hit those passes when they're there. There was the sailed pass to OBJ last week right before his end-around, and there were several yesterday. If Baker is going to make it even as a QB that rides his running game and takes opportunistic shots, he's gotta hit those when they're there (and they're there... nobody is making the ol' argument that receivers aren't getting open).

Fair point. I better clarify. I was talking about the final drives the last two weeks when the game was really on the line. You are right that Stefanski asked a lot of Baker in yesterday's first half. And I am not even sure I am coming to the correct conclusion because there is not enough data to confirm anything. It's just a feeling I have.

Last week, some posters talked about the end around w/OBJ was perhaps a bad call because if OBJ doesn't make that guy miss, we would have been in a terrible down and distance situation. I privately wondered why Stefanski just didn't allow Baker to throw. Then yesterday, Baker did not throw at all on the last drive. Not even when it was 3rd and very long and we desperately needed a first down. You have to admit that it was an odd call.

Oh, I hear you. If you wanted to pick a play to argue your point, that long run on 3rd at the end is definitely it. I'll also say that if we're still having this discussion at the end of the season, then I'd probably be looking at it differently.

With the way our offense is built, in general I'm happy with Baker not throwing at all to run out a win. To your point, that long 3rd-down run was a funny call. But hey, it worked... so what do we know, right? :-p

Did they line up with 2 safeties deep and the LB's, 5 yds off the line to stop what is normally a pass play? Caught them off guard?

On the Browns' second-to-last possession, Baker was pummeled on the last two plays with the very-last play resulting in an interception. He was clearly hurting and went into the tent to be evaluated.

On our last possession in a 2nd-and-9, Stefanski called a pass play that went incomplete to Hooper...which stopped the clock. Stefanski sure as hell wasn't about to risk stopping the clock (again) on 3rd down. As we saw twice in the second half, even a very-reliable Landry can drop perfectly-thrown passes.

D'Earnest then sealed the deal.

I don't think the play-call(s) there (choosing to run the ball and keep the clock running) had anything to do with trusting Baker and a lot to do with a head coach who understands that if you have the lead when the clock says "00:00" then you win.

You could be right. We'll see...

but thats the issue.

two straight games in the 4th, when we needed Bake to make THE play, he couldn't.

and the FOLLOWING drives after that, the games was sealed by keeping it on the ground.

I'm trying to get behind bake, but its hard. he leaves a lot of plays on the field, and i'm watching guys make some unbelievable catches.

and look, thats what they get paid to do, after all. but its starting to remind me a bit of DA, where braylon and Winslow were really bailing DA out of some horrible passes. obviously DA did his part and make great throws throughout that season as well, but guys were out there making circus catches.

that one throw to Landry where he caught it from behind the defenders head. that's not a good throw.

for me, i need to see baker make THE throw when we really need it.

two straight games, that hasn't happened. he's not gonna catch any heat because as long as we're winning, but man, at some point, he's gotta show us something in the 4th quarter.

Baker has his moments, but he also has his fair share of blunders. baker had an ok game yesterday.

2 TDs and 2 picks is an ok game. people saying he had a good game are really pushing it.

and before people get mad, he's not going anywhere. he's the franchise QB, we ain't drafting anybody else HOPEFULLY for the foreseeable future.

but i can still be critical of him.

Here is a link to what Orlovsky was talking about. It wasn't for just the last two games. It's for the year.

In the 4th quarter, Baker is 7 for 18 for 82 yards and a 38.9 completion percentage. 1 TD and 2 picks. With a rating of 27.8.

I'll provide a link so you can see for yourselves. But, for comparison sake, his QBR in the first quarter is 90.8 2nd quarter is 124.3. Third quarter is 58.8.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/3052587/baker-mayfield

I guess I never really noticed Baker falling off late in games quite like those ratings would suggest. What I did notice is our offense (overall) losing momentum and not being able to move the ball.

Do we know what is happening here? Is it the run game being slowed down and Baker being asked to capitalize and failing? Is the playcalling on offense following the playcalling on D and getting more conservative in an attempt to bleed clock? Are defenses seeing something and adjusting at the half?

all of which i believe are last in the NFL