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To me, it was the way the D gave it away that really drives home the point.

-Sendejo doing Sendejo things.... and he really hasn't gotten any better in the defense and we haven't been able to bump him down the roster at all.
-We had the vaunted Ravens D on the ropes and then had yakety-sax style execution on the most critical plays (on the one play the defense neutralized 4 of its own players without any help from the offense).


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Originally Posted By: cfrs15
These next two games are basically must win games at this point. The week 16 game between the Raiders and Dolphins is also huge. It would be extremely helpful if the Ravens lost but their next three games are against the Jaguars, Giants, and Bengals.


There are 7 playoff spots in the AFC, last year there were 6.

The Browns have clinched 10th place in the afc.
Another win 10-6 clinches only 9th place in the afc without other, unlikely, help.


Two more wins, 11-5 would only clinch a playoff spot with a loss by any of Miami, Indy, Tenn, in their final 3.

If, Indy, Miami, and Tenn, all win their final 3, (and Bills win any one) then the Browns are eliminated unless they reach 12-4 which means Browns must win all 3.

One at a time.
If the Browns win all 3, 12-4 they clinch a playoff berth without any other help.


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Ran several with us winning against the NY teams and losing to Pitt while the ravens win out... 6th or 7th seed is the worst we got.


Your feelings and opinions do not add up to facts.
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That's where I have it too.


The more things change the more they stay the same.
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Originally Posted By: OldColdDawg
Ran several with us winning against the NY teams and losing to Pitt while the ravens win out... 6th or 7th seed is the worst we got.
same here. I’ve already chalked up the Pitt game as a loss.

The Giants game is the make or break game IMO


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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We have the tiebreaker vs the Titans and Colts. I believe we'd also have the tiebreaker vs the Dolphins...assuming we tie conference record.

If we both finish 10-6 and tied for the 7th spot, we would own the tiebreaker as long as it's not the Giants we beat.

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we have to win 2 of 3 and the Dolphins, Colts or Rats have to lose 1 game.

If the Titans end up 11-5 behind the Colts (Colts taking the division), then that 3rd place poison pill could knock us out even with 2 wins. Titans would qualify 1st over the other 2 second place teams (Dolphins and Ravens), so the head to head means nothing to Tennessee.

I still like our odds smile


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Originally Posted By: Dawgs4Life
I think the next game is the going to determine if we get in or not. If we lose, things get dicey

If we lose to the Gmen, the Steelers game becomes almost a must win or we are going to be scoreboard watching..

There is this underlying tone in a lot of peoples posts that they are writing off the Steelers game as a loss.. I think we will beat the Steelers. I think our D matches up much better against a BigBen type of QB than it does against a Lamar Jackson type of QB. The key against the Steelers would be keeping Baker reasonably protected.


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Originally Posted By: DCDAWGFAN
Originally Posted By: Dawgs4Life
I think the next game is the going to determine if we get in or not. If we lose, things get dicey

If we lose to the Gmen, the Steelers game becomes almost a must win or we are going to be scoreboard watching..

There is this underlying tone in a lot of peoples posts that they are writing off the Steelers game as a loss.. I think we will beat the Steelers. I think our D matches up much better against a BigBen type of QB than it does against a Lamar Jackson type of QB. The key against the Steelers would be keeping Baker reasonably protected.


We definitely match up with an offense like Ben & Conner a whole lot better. The fact that he's close to being a statue back there helps us a lot.... if we can just keep his targets covered for 3 seconds so that we can get to him.


Browns is the Browns

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He has been getting the ball out quicker than any other QB these days. I recall hearing that on Sunday night's broadcast.

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Heard that too...

Did anybody else hear the stat that the Browns are the only team in the NFL that hasn't started a single player on offense over the age of 30? This team is young and should only get better.


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j/c...

Browns will make the playoffs. Basically punched our ticket with the win against TEN. Not even a little bit concerned about the games against NYG and NYJ.

Good shot to beat Pittsburgh as well. Their offense has been atrocious lately. They may even be resting their starters the final week. If nothing else, rest Roethlisberger so he is healthy to throw 50 four yard passes in the playoffs.

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Last nights game was a game we could have won but didn't deserve to because of the mistakes. If we made the extra point and field goal we would have won. The INT. was like giving them 7 points. Tough loss. What's really frustrating is seeing Jackson run like he does and get those big gains and 1st downs. He does it more and better than anybody. I wasn't expecting us to win so I didn't get too upset. The thing I was most upset about was them getting the TD right before the half. Our coaches should know better because it happens too much. Take as much time off the clock so they won't have time to get the ball back and score. It's been going on forever.

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Agree with the play calling at end of half. 2nd and 3, run the ball and take some time off the clock, but they decided to pass - incomplete 4 yard pass to Hunt. Stopped the clock. 3rd and 3, pass complete for a 1st down, but OPI called on Jones (BS call by the way). Now 3rd and 13 and behind the sticks. Gave the ball back with way too much time on the clock. Was not expecting a Ravens TD, but a FG. Unfortunately our defense was absolutely putrid.

Should have gone into the half up 3 with a late drive or at least tied. Instead, we were down 7.

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It was almost like we were surprised with how easily we scored on them in the 4th quarter. That was a hot knife through butter ...


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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Quote:
What's really frustrating is seeing Jackson run like he does and get those big gains and 1st downs. He does it more and better than anybody.

I wanted so desperately for somebody to get a good clean shot at him but nobody ever seems to get that. He is so smooth, it looks like he's not even trying when he makes people miss.. so damn frustrating.

Quote:
The thing I was most upset about was them getting the TD right before the half. Our coaches should know better because it happens too much. Take as much time off the clock so they won't have time to get the ball back and score. It's been going on forever.

Maybe... but on 3rd down we completed a nice 14 yard pass and Peoples-Jones gets called for OPI when he wasn't even in the play. I have no problem with us playing to score the TD there and being aggressive, just be smarter.

Along those same lines though, I knew we scored too quick at the end, giving them the ball with over a minute and 2 TOs and Justin Tucker? Yea, I knew he was going to get a shot at it. I was actually glad we forced it to be a 50+ yarder. I was expecting a 35 yard chip shot. When Hunt went for the goal line, I was glad he scored but part of me was hoping they ruled him down and we had to run a couple more plays. At least make them burn the TOs.


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I don't agree. While playing against a QB that can burn you with his feet like Lamar can (and did) is rough, their offense revolves around moving the ball on the ground and generally is much less potent when they don't have the lead.
Our strength on D (if we have one) is stopping the run (we're doing ok on the year).

Pitt, on the other hand, passes the ball well (and a lot). I don't think I have to explain how bad we are defending the pass. Our main strength vs the pass is our passrush, which is largely mitigated by Ben getting the ball out fast.


Neither Pitt nor Balt have exactly been firing on all cylinders on offense lately, but a quick-strike air attack is probably most effective vs our D.


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Pittsburghs problems will suddenly disappear when they play us. Bank on it.

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I still disagree. I give our secondary a fighting chance to cover for 2-3 seconds to try to give our pass rush a chance to get to Ben standing in one place like a statue.

I give our secondary almost no chance to cover for 6-7 seconds when a mobile QB gets out of the pocket and starts to improvise... especially when they are worried that the QB might just tuck it and run for 30 yards.

in short, playing against Ben is about being in the right scheme and doing your job for a relatively short period of time and making sure tackles.

playing against Lamar is about having tremendously talented and athletic DBs who can go off-script and still make plays.

Our DBs aren't great at the first.. but they certainly aren't good enough to do the second.


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Originally Posted By: devicedawg
We have the tiebreaker vs the Titans and Colts. I believe we'd also have the tiebreaker vs the Dolphins...assuming we tie conference record.

If we both finish 10-6 and tied for the 7th spot, we would own the tiebreaker as long as it's not the Giants we beat.


That is incorrect vs the dolphins because, it appears you are counting 8-4 conf record for the Browns
vs a 7-5 conf record for the dolphins, which is not correct information.

After head to head is void because the Browns did not play the dolphins this year, then if both clubs are 10-6, not being in the same div. the "very first" next tie break is conf record.

Now, Since the Browns lost to the Ravens, the Browns current record is
9-4, . 6-4, x-x. overall, conf. and div, division record does not apply in this case.

While the Dolphins are 8-5, 5-4, x-x, overall, conf. and division.

The Dolphins, playing only afc teams remaining, if they reach 10-6 to have the same record as your claim a 10-6 Browns, must win 2 afc , thus by default their afc record moves
from 5-4 to 7-5

Whereas the Browns would only get 1 more conf win, as they will only have 1 more (any type win to get to 10, but not 11.

So the Browns 9-4, 6-4 today, would only equal the dolphins in afc record if they stop at 10 wins
10-6 -7-5, (unless they find a tie to > greater than them in this the clubs would go to the next tie breaker.)

The Browns lose a tie break with the dolphins, this is my explaining it in detail.

By rule the next tie break tween Browns Dolphins if, Browns only win 10 and dolphs do the same:
is Common games minimum 4. (under two clubs, not the same division rule)

Common Games Browns Dolphins are,
1 Jaguars, both clubs beat.
2. Jets, Dolphins swept (2), Browns (tbd)-still to play.
3. Bengals, Browns swept (2), dolphins already beat.
4. Raiders, Browns lost, dolphins (tbd) still to play.

tally, Browns 3-1, (1 tbd).
Dolphins, 4-0, (1tbd). so,

Even in the Browns best case scenario, (at 10-6 vs. dolph tie-ing them at 10-6) that ^particular tie break ends tied 4-1, vs 4-1, and they move on to the next tie break.

the next tie break by rule is strength of victory.
(here's where I'm ignorant, I'm assuming this worded means the margin of points scored vs points given up in the games the club won, and those only, ie. "margin of victory,- in wins.

The dolphins v Browns 8 v 9 wins were by these margins. beginning to end.

Dolph 18 pts. over jags ... Browns 5 pts over bengals
Dolph 26 pts. over 49ers ... Browns 14 pts over WFT
Dolph 24 pts. over jets ... Browns 11 pts. over cowboys
dolph 11 pts. over rams ... Browns 9 pts. over colts
Dolph 3 pts. over cards ... Browns 3 pts. over bengals
Dolph 8 pts. over chargers ... Browns 3 pts. over Texans
Dolph 17 pts. over jets ... Browns 5 pts. over eagles
Dolph 12 pts. over bengals ... Browns 2 pts. over jaguars
dolph, end 8; ; ---- ----- ... Browns 6 pts. over titans, end 9

for a tally of Dophins 119 pts /8 wins, 14.875 pt margin. With 2 games to add

Browns with, 58 pts / 9 wins, 6.444 pt margin. With 1 game to add.

( if the dolphins 2 wins were only 1 pt, and 1 pt, they'd have 121 /10 for 12.1 avg)

Which means the Browns one win would have to be 64 pts more than their opponent, + equaling any points above a 1 point margin the dolphins would get in the combined remaining 2 wins this scenario requires, for the Browns to win this tie break)

otherwise, dolphins move on, Browns are eliminated.
for example. if the Dolphins win by 10, and by 10, the Browns would have to win by 84, to win the tie break, 83 to equal, or 82 for elimination.

Or Browns could just win 2+ games instead of only 1

Edit:: or 3 games instead of only 2, this tie break still occurs if both teams finish 11-5.

Last edited by THROW LONG; 12/15/20 10:01 PM.

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Originally Posted By: OldColdDawg
Ran several with us winning against the NY teams and losing to Pitt while the ravens win out... 6th or 7th seed is the worst we got.


I'm not sure how your forecaster works, but I suggest start out giving the Titans and Colts both a 12-4 record.

This would be the 4th consecutive year the top 2 of the AFC South div, have performed very well in the final 5-6 games of the reg season.
It's not unreasonable to start with them both at 12-4 which is a worst case scenario for the Browns.


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I am almost POSITIVE we will give the Jets their first win.

Typical Browns.

9-7, 10-6 at best.

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Uhh.
Click to reveal..
THAT'S CRAZY! notallthere
and they play the Giants this week.


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You may be correct.

I assumed 7-5 for both as well as a tie in common opponents.

I looked at strength of victory and right now we're "dominating" them. But I suppose that could change in the final 3 games?

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We need to win out. According to that espn playoffs. Machine if we only lose one of the remaining three games and the dolphin and ravens win out then we are out. The possibility of the dolphins winning out is above 50% in my opinion. They play the Patriots this sunday. We all know this is not the typical Patriots we are used to. Then they play the raider who are pretty much out of the playoffs, so I doubt they will be giving it thier all as thier season is technically over. Then they have the Bill's in the final week, however since the Bill's own the head to head over the Steelers I doubt they play thier starters unless the chiefs lose thier next two games and the first over all seed is up for grabs. As for the ravens. All they have to do is beat the jags, giants and Bengals, which I thi I they have at least a 85% chance of doing. The colts and titans each have only one tough opponent left. The colts have the Steelers and titans have the packers. They if both win along with ravens and dolphins we are out.


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I don't think these are your typical Browns.

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On Tap Week 15:

1. Chargers over Raiders
2. Patriots over Dolphins
3. Jaguars over Ravens
4. Texans over Colts
5. Lions over Titans
6. Browns over Giants

Easy peasy...

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Originally Posted By: Hammer
On Tap Week 15:

1. Chargers over Raiders
2. Patriots over Dolphins
3. Jaguars over Ravens
4. Texans over Colts
5. Lions over Titans
6. Browns over Giants

Easy peasy...


That would be nice lol. Realistically I think the Pats could upset the Dolphins. That might be about it IMO


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I think the Chargers could beat the Raiders as well.

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The strength of victory (SOV) is the combined record of all teams that were beaten in that schedule.

It has nothing to do with points and everything to do with the records of the teams beaten.

Dolphins -> Strength of victory: .274
Browns -> Strength of victory: .363

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Originally Posted By: slick
We need to win out. According to that espn playoffs. Machine if we only lose one of the remaining three games and the dolphin and ravens win out then we are out. The possibility of the dolphins winning out is above 50% in my opinion. They play the Patriots this sunday. We all know this is not the typical Patriots we are used to. Then they play the raider who are pretty much out of the playoffs, so I doubt they will be giving it thier all as thier season is technically over. Then they have the Bill's in the final week, however since the Bill's own the head to head over the Steelers I doubt they play thier starters unless the chiefs lose thier next two games and the first over all seed is up for grabs. As for the ravens. All they have to do is beat the jags, giants and Bengals, which I thi I they have at least a 85% chance of doing. The colts and titans each have only one tough opponent left. The colts have the Steelers and titans have the packers. They if both win along with ravens and dolphins we are out.

BBS tells me this could happen, but you're talking about...
COLTS
DOLPHINS
RAVENS
TITANS
... all winning every game. And that is the ONLY scenario that keeps us out of the playoffs with one more loss.

Not saying it can't happen... but it ain't happening.


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for the over-anxious group thinking that the Dolphins Raiders can both be in the playoffs...

both of them can not win all of their remaining games (they play each other)

Also:

the Colts or Raiders cannot win all of their remaining games
(they play each other)
Finally:

the Bills Dolphins and Patriots cannot all win their remaining games (they play each other)

this is why I wanted the Titans in the top seed with the Bills and this is why the Browns have an 80% chance of being in the playoffs if they win 2 of their last 3.


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I think if we beat the Giants and the Jets we should be in ... 11-5 should be good enough


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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Originally Posted By: Dawgs4Life
I think if we beat the Giants and the Jets we should be in ... 11-5 should be good enough


I think TL explained why it won't. Not that I could decipher those volumes. smile


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Originally Posted By: jfanent
Originally Posted By: Dawgs4Life
I think if we beat the Giants and the Jets we should be in ... 11-5 should be good enough


I think TL explained why it won't. Not that I could decipher those volumes. smile

TL is confused about part of the equation. I've tried to explain it but gave up.


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Quote:
The possibility of the dolphins winning out is above 50% in my opinion.

Home against the Patriots
On the Road against the Raiders
On the Road against the Bills

They could very easily lose 2 or all of those games. I don't see how you get the odds of them pulling off the sweep is above 50%. The Browns have a better chance to win out than the Dolphins do.


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Originally Posted By: DCDAWGFAN
Quote:
The possibility of the dolphins winning out is above 50% in my opinion.

Home against the Patriots
On the Road against the Raiders
On the Road against the Bills

They could very easily lose 2 or all of those games. I don't see how you get the odds of them pulling off the sweep is above 50%. The Browns have a better chance to win out than the Dolphins do.
I hope the Bills don’t rest guys .. that’s a tough game if Buffalo plays full strength


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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Originally Posted By: DCDAWGFAN
Quote:
The possibility of the dolphins winning out is above 50% in my opinion.

Home against the Patriots
On the Road against the Raiders
On the Road against the Bills

They could very easily lose 2 or all of those games. I don't see how you get the odds of them pulling off the sweep is above 50%. The Browns have a better chance to win out than the Dolphins do.

I agree. Raiders will be out for blood regardless of playoff chances, Bills may be playing for top seed... Chiefs still face the Saints and Chargers, say what you will, but the Chargers have beaten Mahommes before and took them to OT earlier this year.

I'd put the Dolphins chance for a sweep at about 20%.

Edit: And wow, just looked it up... surprised to see the Pats and Phins have split 6 out of the last 7 years. Miami won earlier this season, and hasn't swept in twenty seasons.


Last edited by FATE; 12/16/20 06:18 PM.

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Hope you are right. I hope we win in rather than back in, but we have already exceeded my expectations.

Unleash. The. Elf!


"Every responsibility implies opportunity, and every opportunity implies responsibility." Otis Allen Glazebrook, 1880
Joined: Mar 2013
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All Pro
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All Pro
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 833
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If we win 2 of 3, the only team that can get in via the 3rd place poison pill is the Titans (that's assuming the Colts take the division).

We need to win two and either the Dolphins, Colts or Ravens have to lose 1.

or

as in...they have to do better than a combined 8-1 in those 9 games between them.

The Raiders have already lost 6.


People ask me what I do in spring when there's no football. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for fall
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