DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum AFC Playoff Chase Continued

In the end, either the Colts lose and we're in, or they win and we're playing for the Division... and then, we're in.

No matter the outcome, we benefit.



Here's a thing: The last time we were on the cusp of the playoffs was 13 years ago in 2007 when we went 10-6 and missed out. Before that was 2002, the season I joined the original DT, when we got into the playoffs on a 4th & Goal stand at the 1 yard line against the Falcons in Week 17. In both occurrences, and every other year we weren't mathematically eliminated by Week 8, we on this board have looked feverishly at all the scenarios that needed to go our way in order to back our way into the playoffs, and this year, here we are looking at all the scenarios that could transpire to keep us out when all we need to do is take care of our business.

We are entering Week 16 and we really don't need any of that. We just need to do our job; do what we didn't do it in '07, and what we did in the final moments of '02.... take care of our business and close it out and the rest takes care of itself.

I was at the game! It felt like ATL weren't giving it there best effort but we took the win regardless

Here's another thing: Only two times in the history of the NFL, has an 11 win team not made the playoffs. The 85 Broncos and the 08 Patriots. Both of those were under the 5 playoff teams per conference system, both would have made it if they had been in the 7 playoff team system. I have absolutely NO DESIRE to be the first to do it in an 8 team playoff year.

As I recall, another game finished just before then and their playoff berth was clinched and they didn't need the win, and thus our win was a bit of a gift from them.... but, it still felt amazing.

that's a silly thing to worry about. Enjoy what is and don't sweat what isn't.

Thanks Yoda.

We have knocked a lot of things off the list of "The Browns haven't done ... [insert horrific historic record here] .. since 1964..."

I do now want to hear, for the next 20 years any time a team gets close, "The only 11-5 team to not make the playoffs in the new playoff era is the Browns in 2020"... I just don't. It's not like it keeps me up at night, I just don't want to hear it.

I think the "enjoying" part is why we want to clinch the playoffs this week and still be able to go into week 17 for a chance at the division (fanbase wise, anyway).

2020 has been too stressful. I want to kick back with a cold one come week 17.

What is it with Browns fans calling each other out on how they should root for their team? I totally understand the perspective of beating the Steelers to win the division as the storybook ending. I would never begrudge fans for wanting that.

But I personally am more practical and less emotional about it. We have a team that has a good chance to win games in the playoffs if we don't face high pressure man-to-man defenses. That means the Steelers and Ravens, which at most we would be 50-50 to see if we got in. So I'm all for the Raiders, Giants, and/or Steelers to win this week.

For my peace of mind, can someone tell me, who knows for sure, what would happen if this scenario plays out....

Colts 12-4
Tenn 11-5
Ravens 11-5
Dolphins 11-5
Browns 11-5

We’d be out

I'll admit, it's mostly just pride. But I'll put the desire to take the division aside with a quickness and celebrate the playoffs and a possible opportunity to rest some guys if the Steelers beat the Colts.

For now...I WANT IT ALL!

Tennessee is the only team that can lose a game and still get in over the 11-5 Browns.

They get in over the Ravens while we are stuck waiting on the initial tie-break of 2nd place teams.

lol

I get it, I really do, and I would HATE that, too... but that isn't this team. Also, in past years, that would happen and the team would get blown up and we wouldn't sniff a .500 record for years.... again, that's not this team. This team WILL be in the playoffs next year even if we miss it this year.

I *really* want to be in the playoffs this year, but just a few weeks ago, I was accepting of the fact that we probably don't deserve to go, and my preseason guess was .500, at best. No matter what, to me, this season is already a major victory. That's not a consolation prize... it's the statement that everything else at this point is icing on a really damn good cake.

And I want someone to explain and prove to me how?!
Explain this::
Colts lose this week and we get wild card automatically, even though both Browns and Colts could finish season season 11-5 ( yes I see above the Colts finish 12-4 but same scenario with Titans)

But if Colts win this week and all other Games play out against the Browns this week that take it down to the last game then how does a 11-5 Colts or 11-5 Titans keep a 11-5 Browns out of the playoffs? I DO NOT BELIEVE THE 3RD TEAM IN DIVISION IS OUT STATEMENT!!
Because as I state above. Colts lose this week and Browns at in even though we could still be tied at 11-5 with the Colts and Still be the 3rd Team in our Division if the Ravens win out so EXPLAIN that one.

Here's my opinion on our path to the playoffs and how I'd like it to happen (obviously, fwiw).

The Browns have 4 opportunities each year to test themselves to see if they can hang with our own division. Out of those 4 opportunities, only 1 was close, with 1 more tbd. If anything, they've provided evidence that they still can't quite hang with the big boys.

Don't get me wrong. I'm super happy with the improvement and couldn't be more excited with the pieces we've put into place. But the playoffs is all about hangin' with the big boys, and we've lost 3 to those teams within our division with 2 being laughers.

To me, this season was all about seeing what we've got at a number of different spots. To that end, we've passed the test with flying colors. I started the year not thinking at all about the playoffs, but wanting to see what this team could be. To me, a final showdown with the Steelers for all the marbles couldn't be a more fitting end to the season. I don't think we have the horses to be taken seriously in the playoffs... I'll be rooting like nobody's business regardless, but I've made peace with that.

If we get bumped out of the playoffs on a technicality... honestly, that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world (considering I don't think we can hang with many of the playoff teams out there).

Bring on the Steelers and let's bring this full circle and see how this team stacks up.

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after a third club or other clubs are eliminated, the tiebreaker reverts to step 1 of the applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply the division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step

2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two wild card participants.

3. Head-to-head sweep (applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others)

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference

5. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four

6. Strength of victory

7. Strength of schedule

8. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed

9. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed

10. Best net points in conference games

11. Best net points in all games

12. Best net touchdowns in all games
Coin toss

When the first wild card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second wild card (i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2). In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tiebreaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a wild card berth.

https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-tiebreaking-procedures/

The 3rd place poison pill only lasts until Baltimore qualifies for the playoffs.
Tennessee gets in before Baltimore, the Colts do not. IE: Tennessee is "protected" just long enough so that we cannot knock them out.

5) Miami (1 lose was in NFC- Conference record, I believe)
6) Tennessee (head-to-head does not matter since Tennessee beat Baltimore but lost to Cleveland)
7) Baltimore (Tie break over Cleveland- head-to-head)

vs:

5) Miami (1 lose in NFC- Conference record victory tie-break)
6) Baltimore (Tie break over Browns AND Colts head-to-head)
7) Cleveland (tie-break head-to head Colts)

And I understand they have this written down which I admit honestly is complicated to understand for me.

Just explain using your post of the rules of seeding,
How does the Browns get wild card this weekend with a Colts loss? ( Even though we could still finish season tied 11-5 with Colts who will be the second team in their division to our 3rd team in division if Ravens win out)

Because Baltimore does not protect the Colts.

The get in ahead of both Cleveland and Indy, leaving Cleveland the Indy head-to-head tie-break above.

The 3rd place poison pill only lasts until Baltimore qualifies for the playoffs. Once they are in we are the highest ranked club in our division "not in." If that clarifies it at all.

Just root for the Raiders to beat the Dolphins or the Giants to upset the Ravens. It's much easier.

Or Cleveland to win out and take the 3 seed.

Giants D against the Rats could be interesting .

Amen to that. It is going to be major disappointment and deflation to have gone through this season and not make the playoffs.

Yea, that's not an "or" situation. I'm absolutely rooting for both.

Who knows, maybe Cleveland wins out. Indy wins out. The Dolphins win out. Heck, even if the Titans drop the game to the Packers:

KC
Buffalo
Cleveland
Indy

Titans
Steelers
Dolphins

8) the 11-5 Baltimore Ravens (the only team that does not control their own destiny at this point).


Feel better yet?

To figure it out, you have to note a couple of things:

1. Those tie breaker rules posted are used when Three or More teams are tied and have the same record. If only two teams are tied, the tie breaker rules are a little different.

2. The very first part of the tie breaker rules for the 3 or more set is to get rid of all but the best team from each division that isn't already in.... so, in that instance, Baltimore beats us on head-to-head, so in every round of tie breaking, we are not in the equation until after Baltimore gets in.

3. Between Colts & Titans, one will win their division so that one will not be part of the tiebreaking procedure.

There are three Wild Card slots. There are five teams in that list. One will win the AFC South, leaving four teams in that list, including us, vying for the three Wild Card slots.... we need ONE of those three that isn't us to lose one game so that as the tie breaker rounds are figured out we don't get pushed out.

Can you do that in a flowchart? Thanks.

aaaannnnnnnd, I have a typo

Don't care, well worth the effort.

I'm more worried about the Jets on Sunday.. That has all the makings of a trap game...

Started making more sense but I'll just wait and see what happens. Still going to root for Colts and hope to be playing for division. We miss the playoffs we miss the playoffs. I'm a Browns fan I'm use to it!!
Having my Heart ripped out since 1982!

One of the reasons I was glad they beat the Rams... glad they got their win so they feel the pressure is off and won't go 0fer.. also hoped it might wake the Browns up to anybody can beat you if you don't show up to play.

Whenever I get worried about the Jets, remembering we have Stefanski at the helm calms me down a LOT.

Yea, me too.

It's almost inconceivable to me that this late in the season, with just 2 games left.. the Browns could mathematically be the #2 seed in the AFC... or locked out of the playoffs completely. Either could happen. And I'm having trouble processing that.

Concentrate on going 1-0 this Sunday and controlling your own destiny and let the chips fall where they may.

Yeah, that's just crazy.

I'm so thankful for a season where we can focus on just winning and we're in.

I mean sure we should already have it locked up if not for botching the Ravens game late ,but better than our usual "if these 10 teams lose..." scenarios!

<3

Who feels that with the excitement and drama this late in the year and continuing for 2 more weeks that the NFL will make the 8 team playoff structure permanent?

Ahhh... If my memory is correct, Jim Donovan was screaming RUN, WILLIAM, RUN....