DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2021 NFL Season 2021 NFL Draft Trade out of the first round?

Nahhh. You are saying something is impossible based on the past. That's not accurate. I've said it's unlikely but possible, which is accurate!

Well a unicorn coming by while farting rainbows is "possible" too I suppose.

And as I can see you obviously have no precedent for it ever happening.

The closest thing I can think of is in 2018 the Saints traded a future first round pick for the pick 14th pick.

https://saintswire.usatoday.com/2019/04/...rs-draft-picks/

the 5th year option is setup to help teams get an extra discounted year before paying a crazy premium or franchise tag.

The fifth year option is enticing but not as enticing as it used to be now that it is fully guaranteed.

Bill O'Brien is no longer a decision-maker.

Not only would i stay at 26 but i would try to package to get back into that late first early 2nd range. Way the draft is shaping up, i thinkyou can end up with 2 major studs. QB, edge and receivers are gonna push stars into our lap. Barmore, Jarmin, studs to be had at 26.

Hey Mour....hope you have been well my friend!

I have been hearing about that draft chart for 15 - 20 years. IIRC it was developed by Jimmy Johnson when he was at the Cowboys. I have never put much stock in it.

Does it list the "value" of the next year's draft picks ie how much is a 2022 1st round pick worth in 2021?

One other reason I don't hold a lot of faith in it, each draft is different regarding depth at different positions, some positions more valuable than others.

Unless this value chart gets reevaluated and adjusted each year per depth of each position group, then it is pretty just a random guess. For instance if one draft has 3-4 stud QB prospects, 2-3 stud edge & 2-3 stud OT prospects those values are way off base when compared to a draft with few stud prospects. I looked up the Jimmy Johnson one because I did not find the chart posted earlier.

Anyway I agree with whoever posted about the draft going out the window if a team really, Using my earlier scenario if a team picks #6 in f=round one and a guy falls to 26 that they love and they know he won't get past pick 27 or 28, who is ot say they won't jump up offering a lot, especially if that players' position fits a big weakness for them.

Just asking if anyone would take an offer like that if it presented itself. I am not naïve enough to think it is likely but teams have given up a lot if they really value a player. .

I don't have evidence of trading back but here is the transaction from 1989 (I assume it is modern era) where the Browns traded for the 3rd pick of the second round (back then it was pick # 31, but 2nd round none the less.

"Traded • Herman Fontenot • 1989 third round pick (#74-Anthony Dilweg) • 1989 fifth round pick (#127-Vince Workman) • 1990 first round pick (#18-Tony Bennett) to Packers for • 1989 second round pick (#31-Lawyer Tillman) • 1989 fifth round pick (#114-Kyle Kramer) on 1989-04-23[/b]"

So the Browns traded a current year 3rd round pick & 5th rd pick, next year 1st round pick & a player (Fontenot) for a current year 2nd round pick and 5th rounder.

A smart team does not trade out of the first round when it is still short of the Super Bowl goal.

Doing good Peen. Took some time away. Ready to keep it rolling with hopefully a solid draft to go with a pretty solid free agency period.

I was going to say the Packers, Patriots, and Seahawks have done this recently but then I wasn’t sure if they were smart or not.

NO!

If you just use it as a guide rather than a set in stone formula, you wouldn't have to go in to detail as to why you don't have much faith in it.

The fact is that it has been around for a long time, and teams use something to place a value on various draft picks.

No doubt many of the factors you mention are valid and come in to play, but until someone comes out and says it isn't of any value or doesn't have any basis, it's a good starting point for goobers like us to put a value on picks rather than just pull some measurement out our ass.

I am sure some geek has compared actual trades to the chart and would have pointed out the inaccuracies if they were blatantly off.

Our front office could care less what us fickle fans think. (Thank God) If they think a move will help our team either this year or down the road they will do it. They are committed to the process they have in place and will move forward with it.

It's a good enough starting point. The shifting draft pool from year to year is reason enough to prove that individual pick value isn't set in stone.

Exactly.

Teams have some sort of guideline they use as a baseline. Every team doesn't come up with their own value chart, though they might seek a premium if they think they can get one.

Each trade is different and can vary from that standard depending on a multitude of factors.

When we go to buy or sell a car, bluebook is used. Why that is, I don't know? IMO my cars are always worth double what the "stupid" bluebook says, but nobody else does so what am I going to do? I can trade for what the book says or not trade.

I agree. We should.

Unlike any year I can remember, I can see us standing pat, using maybe our 2nd rounder to move up some in the 1st round since our two 3rd rounders could get us back in to round 2, or trading back several slots to add something for next year.

Every option is available and realistic.

Exactly.
Much like speed limits or a recipe book, it is a guideline, not a hard-and-fast rule that this is what you must follow.

Selling your car vs KBB is a great parallel, imo.

I'ma gonna try that next time I get pulled over.

Historical data would show that the above statement is not true. The first overall pick hits at something like a 50% rate.

In the end I trust this front office more than other to make a smart, informed decision. That’s all I can ask for.

LOL

You.."Officer, you didn't get the memo that the posted speed is only a rough guideline?"


Officer..."Yes, I did, and since it is a rough guideline, I can now view you not going 15mph over the guideline, but 20mph over the guideline, so rather than a simple ticket, I can now arrest your for reckless driving. Turn around and put your hands behind your back."

Y'all gotta work on your humor detectors, lol



To get back on track here, in another thread - somewhere - I asked about the strength of a class and how these guys were graded out and what would be the best approach to play to the strengths of this draft.

Well, I just spent a little bit of time perusing the NFL.com player rankings and my takeaway is that there is not a Day 1 starter that is going to be there at #26. Of course, that's not guaranteed, but I think the odds are slim.

All else being equal, using the NFL.com player grades and then using their grading scale... pretty much anyone we get is going to fall into the range of 6.3-6.5, meaning that they are either "will be a starter within two years" or "boom or bust prospect".
Players viewed as "Year 1 quality starter" start with a grade of 6.7... it's almost guaranteed that no player with that grade falls to 26 because there just are not all that many in this draft with a grade that high. In fact, there are a total of TWELVE players in this draft that fall into that category. For comparison, the 2018 Draft had something like 27 players graded at 6.7 or higher, and 2019 had 31.

So, what's this mean? It means that, like a number of drafts in recent years, there is a real division between the top talent and the rest of the draft, and once the top guys are gone, there are a ton that all fall into that 6.3-6.5 range, thus we could EASILY trade back as far as the early 2nd round and STILL get a guy with a comparable grade to what we'd grab at 26.

Of course, none of that is written in stone, and it makes assumptions of taking NFL.com's grades as valid and decently representative of things, but I think it's a pretty valid takeaway. The excitement in the draft will still trickle down past 12 because there will be the run on QB's and WR's, and maybe even TE's, but not enough to make a significant difference, most likely.


As for questions about this being a weak DE class.... well, the TOP graded EDGE/DE is Oweh with a measly 6.44 grade.... but, the number of players in the same range is DEEP. So, you can easily drop back and still get a guy with a comparable grade. The same holds true for CB, Safety, LB, and DT. In each, you have at most one or two "good" players and the rest are a bunched collection of guys all ranked roughly the same.

For your perusal: NFL.com Draft Rankings

And that there is EXACTLY why we need the FO that we have today.

What you say (Purp) makes a lot of sense. The question that popped into my head when reading was this: If the players at 26 are part of a larger group rated similarly that could be had later, why would a team give up something to move to 26? Wouldn't the other teams realize the same thing about this group of players and just let the draft come to them? Not arguing with you, just thinking out loud.

In theory, yes, they would.
However, other teams, particularly those at the top of each round, are more likely to have talent deficiencies and could be enticed into it for a future year pick. Beyond that, teams probably don't have the same grades on players that we do (operating under the assumption again that we have them rated the same as NFL.com), so there is a sllid chance of a team wanting to ensure they get their pick of the litter at a given position group.
Nothing is guaranteed, and like you pointed out you can only trade down if someone is looking to trade up, but I think all of this speaks more to the thinking behind whether or not we should even pursue trading down. Finding a trade partner is another thing, entirely.

Not sure if trading from 26 to 34 is really going to net you too much. Maybe yet another 3rd round pick or a 4th this year and a 3rd next year.

I'd just as soon use the extra capital we have to move from 59 to the low 40's if/when one of the 2nd group of guys slips.

The draft is solid through the low 40's. Get two of them. Preferably on defense. Even if it costs us a 4th and 6th or even one of those late 3rds this year.

If the surgery went correctly, the recovery time for such a surgery would mean Farley would be 100% recovered and ready for training camp.

I'd be all over Farley if available.
I'd also be all over Paye or Ojulari
I'd be pretty pleased with JOK or Barmore
I'd accept Jaelen Phillips with nervousness

If only there was a reasonable way to get Parsons...
No way JC Horn is there either

That's all I can think of for prospects who at different times were thought to possibly fall to the 20's.

NO! NO! NO! Yes if they were a team stockpiling draft picks and building for the future. They already did that. The Browns are ready to win and get to the SB now. Stay at 26!

I could see us trading up for the player we want more so than trading down ...

That or trading up makes sense as well.

I have explained why we might trade down a few times in this thread. I can see standing pat or even trading up.
You accumulate picks to either gain picks or improve draft position, and we have done that in the past. A trade up to #20 with Indy basically calls for a 3rd round pick. We have 2 of those, so we could get that done. We might have to toss in a little sweetener like a 5th or 6th.

Right now any of the 3 options is in play and make sense depending how the ball is falling on draft day. IMO it will start to get interesting around pick 20. I don't see us moving up much past there...we could, it just doesn't seem likely.

I am pretty sure that at some point in this draft we will drop back to gain a pick for next year. Will it be in round 1? I don't know. I do know that several of you offer compelling enough arguments as to why we shouldn't.

Maybe this subject has been broached (I haven’t read every post in this thread) and maybe it deserves a separate thread but has anyone thought we might trade UP?

The thinking is that we’re more fully stocked that at any point in the last 20+ years. We certainly have positions of need and every team needs quality depth but we’re officially a team that has a plethora of good players and there stands a good chance this is a year when a current year draft pick doesn’t even make the final 53.

We’re also as close to the definition of “one or two players away” than at any point in the last 20+ years.

Do we simply pare down from the 9 we’re supposed to draft to 2 or 3 higher quality potential starters. I know trading up is not a typical analytics move but our time is nigh and it seems the players that could help us immediately are slated to go higher than 26.

Thoughts?

And of course now I see the posts directly above mine.... 😆

I would do this trade so fast that it would probably scare the Texans off the deal.

yeah - no thanks.

Need to get a real good Defensive player this year and that can be had at #26.