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How many sacks do we have to take on 4th down for the analytics to have us take the points? Based on our performance so far, the vast majority of the time we go for it, we take a sack. That comes down to the coach making a educated decision based on the players on the field. Something tells me the odds are back in statistical favor if we had our starting tackles in the game. And remember, it is a fairly small sample at this point. The odds aren't factored on a short sample. The odds are probably accumulated over several years worth of plays. Take the odds at playing blackjack. If you play the smart hand every time the odds are you will win slightly more than not. That doesn't mean on any given hand or night that play or plays are going to end up winning plays. The only problem is Stefanski seemed to take in account his Oline being depleted last week and ran it on 3rd and 10.. so who knows? On a side note: I do agree with your take!! Of everyone on this board over the years I find i agree with you on most topics.
Last edited by Moxdawg; 10/18/21 09:51 AM.
The Views Expressed By Me Are Not Necessarily The Views That You Will Agree With, I'm In My Own Little World But They Know Me Here.
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Another thing I get annoyed with: when we go empty, especially to start the game (in windy-ish/rainy-ish conditions no less). Just seemed so dumb to me.
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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Definitely fair point about the tackles.
But you see what I'm saying, though... right? We've had an overwhelmingly large portion of our 4ths end up in sacks. Does it really take a rocket-surgeon to say "maybe we should put some of this on the shelf"?
There is no level of sucking we haven't seen; in fact, I'm pretty sure we hold the patents on a few levels of sucking NOBODY had seen until the past few years.
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I'm really dejected after this one.
Woods' scheme is really trending in the wrong direction again. Big time. He has not risen to the occasion against elite teams. Last year, we saw dismal play from our FS. We improved the position and still see dismal play. Guys aren't in the right spots, which goes to tell me that there is something going on with the scheme design. It's bad.
Did anyone see the Ravens play the Chargers today? Their defense played like they had their hair on fire. We just seem to wait for the play to come to us. Sometimes, it just feels like we just have guys on the field. Drives me crazy.
Offense is all over the place. Injuries have surely taken their toll. However, Baker needs to get the frigging ball out. He's bad under pressure and other teams are going to keep bringing it, especially with our OL dinged up. Get the ball out.
I have resisted my inner feelings so far on the matter to try and be more objective, but we need to part from OBJ. It's not even his fault either. I don't know what it is with Baker, but he's a different QB with and without OBJ, and I just don't get it. I understand the whole correlation/causation thing, but at some point, if there's overwhelming correlation, you can't ignore it. I'd be curious to see what his cumulative stats with and without OBJ on the field are. Plus, for whatever reason, OBJ for the life of him can't catch a fourth down pass. I can think of 3 easily catchable ones off the top of my head that he's dropped. If he picked up that first down yesterday, it could change the narrative (assuming the D wouldn't crap itself, which it probably would).
The staff needs to revamp a ton of stuff. Do whatever you need this week, and then use the mini-bye to retool things across the board. Simplify the defensive calls. Work on coverage. Get the offense fixated on the shorter, quick release, misdirection plays.
Also, for the life of me, is there any friggin' thing that can be done about the Refs? Holy crap that was miserable. That roughing the passer call was one of the dumbest things I've seen. Let's also not forget that they tried to throw a flag on Hooper for holding that was nonexistent.
I'm ticked.
Blue ostriches on crack float on milkshakes between the sidewalk titans of gurglefitz. --YTown
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Good point. We have one of the most passive defenses in the NFL by my naked eye. Even “bad” teams like Jacksonville seem more formidable and aggressive.
We give up 40 to anybody worth a salt on offense
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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My issue with that, cherry picked or not, is you just know Allen, Mahomes, Jackson, Murray, etc. make the play. No you don't. I don't know why you always assume the play always gets made. It doesn't.
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I don't know that the analytics is wrong, but it is proving wrong for this team. Other teams might be converting at a good number, but we aren't. There's nothing wrong with the so-called analytics (Man, I seriously hate the gross overuse of that word). The problem with what the numbers say is that they rely on the assumption of being able to execute. So, it's not necessarily wrong for this team, but it doesn't apply to the current health of this team because when it is 4th & Short, we CANNOT execute. Nothing malevolent in that statement... it's just a simple fact that with two less than average 3rd string OTs and a banged up center, all they need to do is pin their ears back and run blitz on the way to Baker while the guys behind them cover the short and intermediate. It's not a handoff, so he's going to pass... and if the first reads aren't there, he's going to stand in and try to hit a big one down the field; with these tackles, that will take longer than he has and it is going to be a sack.
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
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I have exactly zero respect for you and your crap not in the mood so stuff a rag in your pie hole. I respect it, I just don't always agree. I will say this, I do think there's something to Baker and being timid throwing the ball. Whether that's on Stefanski or his shoulder or what, but something is different. I do believe that it's possible or coaches have pounding it into Baker's brain so much that throwing interceptions is bad. Analytics says it's bad. However with all due respect to the "Baker not being the guy" talk, the defense gave up 37 points. The defense is bad. So for anyone who thinks Jarvis is our #1 WR (I don't), we were without our #1 WR,, our best RB, are two starting tackles, we were without our #2 WR and our #2 RB was playing injured. Twice we went for it on 4tb down in the red zone and didn't get a first down. The offense moved the ball. The defense failed us. The game we needed them the most, they blew it.
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May one suggest drafting a tackle in the next raft as Jedrick Wills seems incapable of staying healthy?
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One more thing, that's now two years in a row that we have a horrible third down defense, with the secondary revamped. Again, it just seems like we're playing bend don't break on third and 7+ and it just seems automatic for the other team. I understand pressure can get you burned sometimes, but so does giving the QB time without WRs being covered.
Blue ostriches on crack float on milkshakes between the sidewalk titans of gurglefitz. --YTown
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One more thing, that's now two years in a row that we have a horrible third down defense, with the secondary revamped. Again, it just seems like we're playing bend don't break on third and 7+ and it just seems automatic for the other team. I understand pressure can get you burned sometimes, but so does giving the QB time without WRs being covered. May one suggest drafting a tackle in the next raft as Jedrick Wills seems incapable of staying healthy? He got his ankle rolled up on. That is hardly that is the fault of the player, nor is it something he can prevent.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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I have exactly zero respect for you and your crap not in the mood so stuff a rag in your pie hole. Pretty sure a lot of people feel the same towards you. Sorry you got triggered reading something from Rish you don't agree with. Better luck next time. Tell us more about this defense!
At DT, context and meaning are a scarecrow kicking at moving goalposts.
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Here’s the narrative we have to deal with at the moment. Thursday is a pretty big night for this team.
Jake Trotter @Jake_Trotter . @danorlovsky7 : The #Browns are "the most disappointing team in football.”
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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A loss thursday and I think you'll see some shakeup in the coaching staff. You know Haslam has to be fuming and you know hes itching to meddle. But I think the two biggest things that can be fixed is Woods replaced and Someone else call plays on offense. Those outside of Baker are the two most glaring issues. Baker almost gets a pass due to injury and having shown he can be alot more accurate and aggressive than he's been allowed. Just about everyone sees it except KS. Baker thrives on making those tight window aggressive throws and it usually pumps him up and he starts to get in a groove. Stefanski's playcalling thus far is just as bad as Kitchens...Its literally like watching the movie from 2018/2019. 2018 kitchens calling plays and baker was on fire, 2019 and it was a dumpster fire. Last year under KS Baker was slinging it, this year...dumpster fire. Whats the common denominator here and you'll have the answer.
Tomorrow is the most important thing in life. Comes into us at midnight very clean. It's perfect when it arrives and it puts itself in our hands. It hopes we've learned something from yesterday. -John Wayne
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#gmstrong
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At DT, context and meaning are a scarecrow kicking at moving goalposts.
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That is nothing but a coaching failure. I was talking about the six defensive linemen the whole time in the game day thread.
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One more thing, that's now two years in a row that we have a horrible third down defense, with the secondary revamped. Again, it just seems like we're playing bend don't break on third and 7+ and it just seems automatic for the other team. I understand pressure can get you burned sometimes, but so does giving the QB time without WRs being covered. May one suggest drafting a tackle in the next raft as Jedrick Wills seems incapable of staying healthy? He got his ankle rolled up on. That is hardly that is the fault of the player, nor is it something he can prevent. One more thing, that's now two years in a row that we have a horrible third down defense, with the secondary revamped. Again, it just seems like we're playing bend don't break on third and 7+ and it just seems automatic for the other team. I understand pressure can get you burned sometimes, but so does giving the QB time without WRs being covered. May one suggest drafting a tackle in the next raft as Jedrick Wills seems incapable of staying healthy? He got his ankle rolled up on. That is hardly that is the fault of the player, nor is it something he can prevent. I get that he got his ankle rolled. That being said how many times has he been injured?
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The best way to describe yesterdays game in one word is "ugly".
The offense was ugly. Baker's play was ugly. The defense was ugly. And yes, the officiating was ugly. But to try to blame the officiating on a 37-14 loss is crazy. Injuries certainly played a big part on the O, but from my perspective at some point they just gave up. With both of our OT's out and our best utility OT, Hubbard out, the loss I expected against an undefeated team. But not like this.
It was not an optical illusion that I used to see Baker scramble when needed, roll out and make a play out of what appeared to be nothing. No HC scripts what a QB does when things break down. From the moment a play breaks down, the QB has to think on his feet. It's up to him to read the field and extend the play. I'm no longer seeing that when it was something I used to see. It concerns me to say the least. I never used to see that "deer in the headlights" look from Baker, but I'm seeing it now.
This defense is not "gelling". It was certainly realistic to believe it would take time for it all to come together. A scheme with so many new players doesn't just magically come together overnight. But as I think we are all seeing, no progress is being made to cause us to think that's the case. They did have a couple of great defensive performances but rather than build on that they regressed right back to square one.
That doesn't mean that all is lost. A lot of teams rebound. While we're certainly not the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baker isn't Tom Brady, their 2020 season shows a team can rebound in the second half of the season. There are many examples of that happening. It's just the most recent example of it. I'm certainly not predicting that's what is going to happen here. But as a Browns fan I have to have the hope that's what will happen.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
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sounds like JOK and Hunt will be out a long time
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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I thought this was 3rd down and almost got clobbered .5 sec after this and didn't get to his 3rd read. I think he scrabled just short of a first down. Correct. He was sacked on 4th down on the next play. Also, my apologies to Jordan Zirm!
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TE even was open as he moved to his left there
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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Just wanted to add one to the ugly list. The penalties. Those too were ugly.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
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As bad as the offense was (gut-wrenching bad), I think the D was worse.
As bad as the outlook on O is with Kareem being added to IR, the loss of JOK is worse (IMO).
There is no level of sucking we haven't seen; in fact, I'm pretty sure we hold the patents on a few levels of sucking NOBODY had seen until the past few years.
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Sounds like a dig on Woods schemes and not letting the players be instinctual, for better or for worse.
If it's not Chaos, it's not Cleveland.
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Either the TE or more likely Hunt should have picked that man up. In-excusable that the offense was not prepared for that defensive formation. Surely the coaching staff prepared the offense for that formation???
That play may have cost the Browns their QB...costly mistake!
FOOTBALL IS NOT BASEBALL
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Sounds like a dig on Woods schemes and not letting the players be instinctual, for better or for worse. seems like it or a safety that keeps getting exposed and giving up big plays because he won't play to the scheme
Hunter + Dart = This is the way.
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It sounded to me like he's blaming those around him (his fellow players). With added context, he might've lumped himself in there as well.
There is no level of sucking we haven't seen; in fact, I'm pretty sure we hold the patents on a few levels of sucking NOBODY had seen until the past few years.
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It sounded to me like he's blaming those around him (his fellow players). With added context, he might've lumped himself in there as well. this is what is sounds like to me... he's saying that the guys aren't just doing their jobs like they're supposed, they're freelancing.
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
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Also, with Chubb already out and now losing Hunt and JOK.... we're toast. The season is toast. I do NOT feel that is an overreaction; we are going to drop too many games over the next several weeks in a very tight, very competitive AFC.
Baker is broken, OBJ is broken, Landry is still broken, our top 3 OTs are broken, JOK is broken, our two Top 5 RBs are broken, and the guys remaining on D won't do their jobs.
The O is a shell of itself, and the D is self-inflicted trash. What's left isn't the team that was going to the post-season. This is a collection of individuals that will be sitting on the couch - or rehabbing - come the third week of January.
I hate to say it, but with the absolute best roster we've ever seen in Cleveland, we're - once again - done before Halloween.
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
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OBJ could still be running. Not sure why Hunt didn't pitch it. Baker and OBJ's body language looked like they were expecting Hunt to pitch it.
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Sounds like a dig on Woods schemes and not letting the players be instinctual, for better or for worse. I think he is saying exactly the opposite of that. We have young, less experienced, or less talented DBs that may be accustomed to playing on instinct at the college level that are now getting beat regularly because they are playing in more complicated system against better Offenses, with better QBs, and better WRs and they are trying to beat them on instinct rather than doing their job based on the play call. We gave up 2 wide open TDs last week because of blown assignments and, if you go to nfl.com and watch the highlights under the Browns/Cardinals game, at the 4:40 mark you will see it, yet again. On 2nd and goal from the 9 yard line, Murray drops back, the Cards have a guy crossing into the left flat at about the 2, the Browns have TWO defenders already in the area. Murray looks that way and Troy Hill bites up hard from his safety position like he's going to make the pick and go 99 yards for the TD... while Andre Hopkins waltzes in behind him and settles in to fair catch yet another undefended TD, right where Hill was supposed to be......
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j/c... From the post in the Green Dot thread here is the full thread from Jake Burns' tweet. It seems (and JJ III commented on being asked to play a different role than what he's accustomed to) Woods is not scheming his defense to what the player does best. Jake Burns @jake_burns18 I wish I had time to write on this but I don't. John Johnson III was brought to CLE with playing 50/50 snaps in deep coverage and in the box. He is dynamic close to the LOS. 2018 -- Deep: 503 | Box: 467 2019 -- Injury 2020 -- Deep: 394 | Box: 459 2021 -- Deep: 310 | Box: 35(!) Jake Burns @jake_burns18 He can play deep. He has proven it enough but to stick him deep all the time is something new to his time in the NFL and it is not working for him fulltime. Some guys need to play closer to the LOS on some snaps. Get into the mix of the game, etc. Jake Burns @jake_burns18 If you signed JJIII to stick deep every snap and not let him use the versatility he is blessed with, then that was a major whiff of a signing. https://twitter.com/jake_burns18/status/1450098691768000514
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Also, with Chubb already out and now losing Hunt and JOK.... we're toast. The season is toast. I do NOT feel that is an overreaction; we are going to drop too many games over the next several weeks in a very tight, very competitive AFC.
Baker is broken, OBJ is broken, Landry is still broken, our top 3 OTs are broken, JOK is broken, our two Top 5 RBs are broken, and the guys remaining on D won't do their jobs.
The O is a shell of itself, and the D is self-inflicted trash. What's left isn't the team that was going to the post-season. This is a collection of individuals that will be sitting on the couch - or rehabbing - come the third week of January.
I hate to say it, but with the absolute best roster we've ever seen in Cleveland, we're - once again - done before Halloween. You might be right. I figured a 5 loss season, or 12 wins might win the division or get a wildcard. Lot's can happen, but 5 losses is 2 losses away. That's a tall order at this point, especially since we aren't looking all that good right now. The bad part about this is we have a lot of guys on 1 year deals. We might be pretty bad next year.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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I've been thinking more about our defense in light of JJ3's remarks. It reminds me of Dallas' defense. Last year, they were in Mike Nolan's rather complicated scheme and the players didn't learn their assignments, felt it was too complicated, and were almost just giving up. Enter Dan Quinn, and it's simplified and much-improved. If we're running a scheme that is going against players' instincts and their strengths (e.g. press-man coverage), then I think it comes down to the fact we need to change the scheme up and simplify it.
Blue ostriches on crack float on milkshakes between the sidewalk titans of gurglefitz. --YTown
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Forums The Archives 2021 NFL Season Looking Back: Browns 14 Cardinals
37 Postgame Thoughts
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