DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Baker Mayfield Part VII: The Dawg Awakens

"Let me explain it to you"


Not only are you so far wrong, you are condescending while you do it ! Can't make this stuff up.

So we are clear.

Game is on the line. 50 seconds on the clock. 3 time outs. Driving and running the ball well so far to get to midfield.

The Running game is AVERAGING 8.8 yards per carry. Has not been stuffed like the Raiders game.

Passing game - We've seen Baker throw behind his WR all game. We've seen 3 interceptions. We've seen the OL give up 5 sacks.

And calling 3 pass plays in a row was good play calling.

You are literally the only individual on the planet that believes that. That's assuming you believe that chit - because basically you like being a contrarian and picking fights.

DC was much more polite in the Post Game thread, but the essence is the same.

I'm not going to opine on whether better WR's catch that. It's a bad throw. But for sure - people seem to be completely ignoring the impact of an injury. Didn't we see posters comment that they've had this exact same injury and it takes 4-6 months to heal? And apparently on top of that, missing 2 weeks of team practice isn't supposed to make a difference to how he performs because some posters suggested he should be rested earlier in the season.

The good news is we will get to see a healthy Baker and what he can do next year. And he may not be the guy? But he will be better than we've seen since week 3 when this injury happened. I've been saying since before the start of the GB game, I still believe we will be playing Bengals in week 18 for the Div Title. So we may see more this year also.

I saw a post about acquiring a viable young back up.... I'd agree 100%. It's a business - prepare for the worst as much as salary and realistic signings allow.

There what is?

You stated our TEs are "really good" and in my opinion, they are meh.

Really good = Kittle, Kelce, Gronk, Waller, Andrews.
Meh = Hooper, Njoku, Bryant, etc.

4-6 months after surgery to repair the labrum to heal. It will not heal on its own.

You cannot raise the arm above the shoulder line, else it will potentially re-dislocate. It is why he is wearing a harness - to restrict his mobility and keep the shoulder in place. If anyone thinks that does not affect his mechanics, well I submit you have never torn your labrum.

j/c...

Great throw. Great mechanics. Video link in the first tweet. This was the throw to Hollywood on 3rd & 16.

Jake Burns
@jake_burns18
There are throws that show you the injuries are not holding much back. Watch the feet tied to the eyes (which is rare). Watch the uncoiling of the body for quick torque. It's there. It's just not anywhere near consistent.
https://twitter.com/jake_burns18/status/1475150348583149575

Jake Burns
@jake_burns18
This is dagger concept on a 3&16. It’s an insanely good throw but why did it work? He did things he doesn’t do enough of…feet/eyes in sync, held the safety for a split second, didn’t let pressure bother him.

If he consistently did this the last four years he’s on a $35M+ deal.
https://twitter.com/jake_burns18/status/1475152019249938434

I feel like TL, but this post is not showing up for me.

I'll probably always be a Baker fan because I like his moxie. But after next year if he doesn't ball out, we will move on. And that sucks because it took 20 years to get him.

I'm waiting to see what he's like next year after his separated shoulder is fixed. Nobody that's had one of those before will say that he should be performing at anywhere near normal when the bullets are flying. He should have been yanked for the season the second half of the Patriots game or sooner. We have the highest paid backup in the league sitting there, he should be able to step in for those wages. The crap about the docs saying he's "ok to play" doesn't mean he can perform at his best, it just means the risk for further injury has been minimized.

That said, I'm not liking some other things I'm seeing that aren't related to the injury, like taking consecutive sacks with the game on the line.....which we've seen multiple times this year, and losing every single game that could have been won with a last minute drive.

I just don't want to go thru another decade or more of qb experiments if we have someone that's serviceable.

I think it's reasonable to think the injury causes some issues. If nothing else it may be the root cause of some of the inconsistency. Jake pointing to two great throws and concluding the injury isn't bothering him would be the same as fans pointing to two great throws and saying "see he's a good QB". And to be honest even if the injury isn't bothering him much at the moment (and I've said he looks a lot healthier since the bye) - I think 8 or 9 weeks of the injury bothering him consistency is enough to get him out of good habits and mechanics and make him inconsistent.

Whether it is the injury or a different Baker issue - he needs to get much better next year, hopefully even for the last 2 games and first playoff game this season!

My bad on that last post. I was more referring to the Oline and stable of RBs. I'll also say (and I know many/most won't agree) that I don't think our pass-catchers are as bad as many think. DPJ is a solid #2 to borderline #1 receiver. Landry is an excellent slot receiver. Higgins is an enigma.

I really do think Burrow would trade his advantage at WR to not always having to be the main driver of the O.

Jake Burns set his account to private/locked I believe, so if you weren't following him prior it may be why the video isn't showing up for you.

Man when you miss the boat you fall straight off the pier don't you?

I'm saying you can't throw three int's and expect to win. You can't turn the ball over to a team like the Packers three times and expect to win. And some things are simply facts. Writing them off as stats won't change that. The fact is 21 of the Packers 24 points did come off of those int's. The fact you don't like anyone reporting that fact is not my issue.

But let's break down some more facts that may help catch the boat next time.

The odds of winning an NFL game when committing turnovers by the numbers......


I know, I know. Meaningless statistics.

I don't fault Baker for the fourth int. Though it was still recorded as a turn over.

Like I said, if you can't see the excuses you are making on that last play, you can't be helped. It's nice to know you think you know more than the defender on that last offensive play and that you didn't see the blatant PI that wasn't called.

This.

(Depending on cost and their acceptance that it's not an open competition before the season)

I tend to agree with this path as well. If we can't get a Rodgers, Wilson, or Watson-type QB via trade (I'm assuming there is a small chance of this happening), then roll with Baker, sign a QB who had "potential" but fizzled out for one reason or another (Trubisky is a good example) and if Baker fails, see if you find a way to re-ignite the backup's career, like Tannehill. If that fails, and there is a good chance that would, you might have an early draft pick to find your next attempt at a franchise QB in 2023 or try via trade again if another QB falls out with his team.

The only problem that may arise from the last scenario is Jimmy Haslem. Meaning, if Baker fails again, will Haslem place blame on Berry and Stefanski and want to start over again even though it was not their QB? I like them both, and I think Jimmuh does too, but you never know.

I want to see Keenum off this team as fast as possible, What he's getting paid to sit on the bench. The Browns have the only starting QB that's trying to play with a harness on his shoulder. It was so obvious in the game Saturday when he was trying to throw to the left side of the field, you could see him trying to raise that shoulder to get the right position to throw. Ending in interceptions. Yet he keeps playing because the over paid back up can't do any better.

Watching the Ravens back up Huntley , I'm thinking wth ! now that guy should be a starter somewhere.

I really wish Baker didn't have the injury, be nice to see how he would have played without it. If Baker rolled through the season tearing it up, or struggling as he is now. It would make it a lot more clearer on judging his abilities as far as him being good..good enough to win with or time for change.

I've seen Baker running across the field and noticing a receiver just behind the Defense with a lot of space behind him thinking, Baker do you see him ? lob the ball over the Defensive guys head to the open receiver ! Baker just keeps running out of bounds !

Seen Baker make some real nice throws, ZIP ! right down the middle to Jarvis for a nice gain ! aww crap ! fumbled the ball !

2 games away from a possible play-off spot, from a pretty banged up team and a QB strutting a shoulder harness. Seen Browns teams healthy that never got close to a play-off game.

I think I'll be thankful that it wasn't worse than it was, even though it felt it was.

I'm going to chill on my feelings a bit, after all I wasn't playing with all the injuries these guys were playing with and still give us play-off hopes.

Oh by the way ! them Refs suck !

YOU WANT TO SAY run the ball, run the ball, ran the ball for over 200 yards? against the Packers?
A Playoff team in the NFL just can't Shun passing the ball because the passing game sucks, for whatever reason. It just won't work out that way.

I feel, Baker Mayfield, has to have carte blanche, (complete freedom), to throw as many interceptions as it takes, to win the final two games in the AFC North weeks 16 and 17.

Whatever it takes! to birth any form of a passing game in this deformed offense.

As many Interceptions as it takes! To push the envelope!
(Because if you aren't trying, then you aren't trying.) Just my opinion and hope

There are no excuses, it is you that has this contrived conspiracy that makes the play calling "good" based on an "IF" ... Not only "IF" the PI call ... "IF" DPJ catches the ball which is another speculation to layer on top of your scenario.

The run was averaging 8.8 yards per attempt the entire game. I believe it was higher than that in the 4th Q.

When we dropped back to pass - 24% of the plays up till the final 3 passes had resulted in either a sack or an interception (that math is based on 5 sacks and 3 interceptions on 33 pass attempts up to that point).

Your contention is that it was solid coaching to call 3 pass plays - each with a 24% chance of a sack or interception. Versus a run with a odds indicating a good chance of an 8+ yard game.

Disagree all you like, your opinion is yours alone. But logic and reason and rationality are not on the side of your perspective. It is black and white. The (nearly could have been a good result) ends do not justify the means. And "explaining it to me so I will understand" and mansplaining doesn't change the persuasiveness of your position.

j/c...

Just finished reading Jason Lloyd's article in The Athletic.

Here's a snippet. Depressing.

In the last four minutes of games the Browns have trailed by one possession or less this season — when quarterbacks have to be at their best — Mayfield has been at his worst. He’s 11 of 26 for 74 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions, according to Sportradar. His passer rating is 17.8. Only Sam Darnold and Jacob Eason have worse ratings.

The names in the top 10 are ones you’d expect to see: Justin Herbert, Mac Jones, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson.

For those still clinging to the injury excuse, Mayfield is 59th in the NFL since 2018 under the same circumstances. In 16 games the Browns were trailing by one possession in the last four minutes, he’s 35 of 71 for 415 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions. His passer rating is 51.1 and his six interceptions lead the league. This isn’t an injury issue. It has been four years in the making.

Need more proof?

Mayfield is the 31st-rated quarterback this season in fourth quarters (Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Rodgers have been the best).

Mayfield is 41st in fourth quarters throughout his career, wedged firmly between Jameis Winston and Josh Rosen. His 18 career interceptions in fourth quarters are the second most in the NFL since 2018.


I also found this interesting....

The Browns averaged 8.8 yards per carry on Christmas Day and still lost to Green Bay. Only one NFL team has averaged more yards per carry in a game this season, and the Bills lost that one, too, at Tampa Bay.

Since 2018, 24 teams have run for better than 8 yards per carry in a game. They’re 12-12.

Conversely, the top six teams this season with the best yards per pass attempt numbers were all victorious. Since 2018, teams that averaged at least 12 yards per pass are 32-1.

I chose 2018 as the cutoff because that’s when Baker Mayfield and the Browns embarked on this roller-coaster journey together.

That’s depressing.

I think the stats are there for just about any argument you want to make re: Baker.

And I'm not saying that in a "stats are for losers" kinda way. Baker is an enigma. I just got Twitter recently, and so roughly 99% of my feed is Browns-related. I don't know how many times consecutive tweets that are show up for me are "x stat shows Baker is the worst at y" while the next tweet is basically the same thing but uses a similar stat to prove the opposite. Baker has a ton of good tape and a ton of bad tape. He has games where he can't miss and games where he's spraying balls all over the place. Games where he's decisive and on-time, and games where the ball seems glued to his hand and he's like my wife trying to figure out what/where to eat.

He's so inconsistent. The problem with this is that as time goes on, potential begins to mean less and less vs actual performance.

j/c

Imagine spending a lifetime rooting for a sports team...a team that went away for (3) years and sucked wind for the next 20 or so. Just when you think it couldn't get any worse, your team wins (1) game in (2) years.

You draft a QB at #1 overall and he doesn't get to compete to start...I mean why would he...things had been so great the last (2) years. He gets thrust into a game without any reps with the 111s and brings the team back to a W. Beer coolers unlock.

Two seasons later...that QB leads the team to the playoffs...and a playoff W...nearly (2) Ws. He's a (5) top-rated QB down the stretch.

4th year that QB tears his labrum and breaks a bone in his lead shoulder/arm early in game (2). With (2) games to play, his team is realistically in the hunt to win the division.

Fans clamor for him to be replaced.

Let that sink in for a minute.

I've been saying all of that since after his rookie year. I got some not so nice responses to my observation that Baker can't put the team on his back when they need it the most. That he needed to lead 4th quarter comebacks. That he needed to do it against good teams.

This season wasn't lost in week 2 when Baker hurt his shoulder. It was lost in week 1 when he threw a pick instead of leading a game winning drive. He can't do it. He has no confidence he can do it.

You can't win in the NFL with that type of QB play. Nearly every game comes down to the wire.

Baker just isn't very good. There's no other conclusion. No mining for "drives before drives" explanations. It is what it is. If hes the QB next year you hope something changes. If it's someone else you hope it's better. There's literally nothing else we can do.

I think what should be sinking in is the Jason Lloyd article.

Stefanski has won with Keenam... he's an expensive security blanket.. Something that every team in the league wants but rarely finds.. Keenam isn't the problem here.

Baker is injured,, I refuse to judge him too harshly until he's healthy. He's a competitive guy that hates losing.. I keep a guy like that...

I've been a Baker supporter. I really like the guy and as a Browns fan want him to succeed in the worst way. However, there is mounting evidence that he really is, at least at this point, an average QB. He has another year to prove that wrong and I really hope he does. If I were the GM I'd give him another shot but I would also keep options open to land a potential starter. Someone mentioned Mitch Trubisky. That might not be a bad idea. I doubt Rodgers or Wilson would come here. JMO

That is very damning for sure. Jason is not and has never been a Baker fan, he's always been fast to pile on, but those numbers are flat out bad. I'd be interested to see how those stats looked last year when he was healthy in the second half of the season.... when Baker was playing better, were his 4th Q stats in close games also good or was there a similar drop off? I'd also be interested to know how much pressure he was under during those 4th Q games - we know Baker has been one of the worst in the NFL under pressure ... we've all said he needs to be better: Hitting open receivers, making good decisions and taking the easy completion when it is there and vast improvement needed when under pressure. Long way to go. Hoping we see what he can do when healthy.

This is a disappointing season even though there is still play off hopes. Tell me.. If Keenum is a rare find as a security blanket, then why was he sitting on the bench while the injured starter was playing ?

If Stefanski won with Keenum, then maybe he should of started Keenum more to let Baker sit and rest for the up coming games. Maybe if Keenum was playing the record wouldn't be 7-8 .

who knows, it's 7-8 nothing will change that. Still would rather have Huntley as a back up.

Huntly as a starter might not be bad either.

Should’ve drafted lamar.

Fixed it for you.

Should've drafted Josh Allen.

From the same Jason Lloyd article...

All of this is crucial because the league is built for close games and tight finishes. There were 239 games played this season entering Monday night, and 104 of them have been determined by seven points or fewer. That’s 44 percent of the league’s outcomes decided by one possession. Ten of the Browns’ 16 games have been decided by one possession, and they have a quarterback who has been dreadful throughout his career with the game on the line. It’s a bad combination that can no longer be ignored.

There are rumblings on social media that Baker and Browns are heading toward an amicable split this off season i.e., both sides want to move on.

I mentioned this weeks ago. Winds are getting stronger.

I’d encourage everyone to listen to Jake Burns most recent podcast.

https://twitter.com/theobrfilmbdn/status/1475828530160320513?s=21

Cliff notes of the high points?

High points? Not many. Things are bleak. Baker can’t make simple reads/throws. Multiple guys open on interceptions. The fun stuff.

What's a Jake Burns?

I'm nauseous.

Wrong adjective.

Should have used nauseating.