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If it’s 4-6 games we can make the season work. I’m sure the FO assumed there’s a chance he’s gone for the season. But based on pass cases (Ben, Elliot) 4-6 games is most likely.

I think for this season, it’s really gonna come down to how soft or tough our schedule is the first 6 weeks, and also where our bye week is during the season. When does the schedules officially come out?

Taking a hard look at the Deshaun Watson deal from both sides – Terry’s Talkin’ Browns
Updated: Mar. 19, 2022, 3:01 p.m.

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/20...rom-both-sides-terrys-talkin-browns.html


By Terry Pluto, cleveland.com
WHY I DON’T LIKE THE DESHAUN WATSON DEAL

I wrote a passionate column Friday after the trade was made, ripping the Browns for the deal. A day later, I still don’t like it for several reasons:

1. The Browns just made Deshaun Watson the NFL’s highest-paid player in terms of guaranteed money. Guaranteed cash is all that counts. Watson’s new five-year, $230 million deal is fully guaranteed.

2. Not only is it the richest guaranteed deal ever, no one else is close. The next highest is the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers with $150 million guaranteed.

3. The Browns gave all that money to a player who sat out last season due to legal problems. And to a player who is still facing civil suits from 22 women. And to a player who likely will be suspended for some games in 2022.

4. Even the Watson camp is expecting a suspension. That’s why his contract begins with an immediate $45 million signing bonus. His salary for 2022 is $1 million. Why do that? If he’s suspended, it only comes from the $1 million salary. That’s about $57,000 per game – according to cleveland.com’s Mary Kay Cabot.

5. I wonder how the NFL views that, an obvious move to work around the pain of a possible suspension. The league can’t be happy. The Browns and Watson now wait for what comes next from the NFL.

6. Watson’s annual salary is $46 million. It’s $1 million more than the average salary of the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes ($45 million). Then come the Bills ‘ Josh Allen and the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott at $40 million. Rodgers is No. 1 at $50 million.

7. On Sept. 5, 2020, Watson signed a four-year, $156 million extension with Houston that included a no-trade clause. He had three years left on that contract, along with the no-trade clause. Watson’s agent convinced the Browns to rip up that deal.

8. Watson’s agent should be agent of the year for pulling this off. These meetings should have been about Watson explaining his side of the charges against him. Certainly, that was a part of it. But it appears it was mostly about Cleveland, Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans selling themselves to Watson – asking what it would take for him to waive his no-trade clause. It was a massive contract renegotiation.

9. Some fans have asked how this is different from the Browns signing Kareem Hunt. I was against that at the time. But from a business point of view, it was easy. Hunt had been released. He had no leverage. He signed a cheap contract with few guaranteed dollars. Even his two-year $13 million extension contains clauses for behavior, etc.

10. The Browns also had to send three first-round picks to Houston in the trade. The last time a team traded three first-rounders for a player was in 1989, Minnesota doing it to pick up Herschel Walker from Dallas. Worked well for Dallas, not for Minnesota. To be fair, six total picks were traded to Dallas along with several other players – more than the Browns gave to Houston.

11. The Browns will not have first-round picks in 2022, 2023 and 2024. First-round picks are precious because it gives a team a chance to draft possible starters/even future Pro Bowl players on salary-cap-friendly rookie contracts.

12. The first year (2022) of Watson’s contract counts only $10 million on the salary cap. After that, it gobbles up cap space. This is not baseball (no cap) or the NBA (soft cap). You have to manage your salary cap in the NFL or get in trouble with assembling a roster. Rookie contracts help -- that’s why the combination of huge dollars for Watson and the loss of first-rounders is difficult to manage.

13. There will be painful public-relations fallout from the deal. This is one of the biggest/most expensive trades in NFL history that also comes with a lot of moral question marks and problems – at least in my mind.

A CONTRARY VOICE

Here is an email from Rudy Wachtler:

“All you writers are doing your best to throw a wet blanket on this deal. How many of them enjoyed the Super Bowl halftime show, loved the Kobe Bryant movie, danced to Michael Jackson, watched 70,000 teary-eyed fans at Pittsburgh’s fond farewell to Ben Roethlisbeger? How about Robert Kraft?

“Do you prefer another decade of football hopelessness trying to compete with these guys: Mahomes, Herbert, Allen, Burrow, Jackson, and Wilson? How do we even make the playoffs let alone compete for a Super Bowl?

“We now have five or 10 years of competitive football in Cleveland. Let’s not whine about it. The world is not a perfect place. It is full of bad guys that we have to live with. All these guys are paid mercenaries anyway; mostly from somewhere else. Do we root for them? Maybe we root for the billionaire owners? No, we root for winning football games in Cleveland.”

WHY THE BROWNS DID IT

I checked with some NFL sources about why the Browns made this move, and learned this:

1. They are sick of losing. They are sick of not having a QB. And by the end, they were pretty sick of Baker Mayfield – although they’ll never say that. It’s rare a QB at Watson’s age and ability becomes available.

2. Watson was not charged with any crime, after a grand jury hearing. The Browns investigated the civil charges. They have a “comfort level” with those in terms of being willing to add Watson to the team as he deals with the civil charges. They talked to people at Clemson and Houston – including females – about Watson. They had been vetting him for quite a while.

3. Before the charges arose, Watson had a sparkling reputation at Clemson and in his first four years with Houston. He was known as a strong leader, a community guy, a good representative of his various teams.

4. The Browns believe that leadership and other positive traits will prevail, and Watson has learned from this situation. They know he could be suspended for part of 2022. They view this deal as a long-term commitment. They will endure with the present fallout because they believe things will work out.

5. Watson is entering his prime at the age of 26. He suffered an ACL knee injury in 2017, but has been healthy ever since. For his career, he has completed 67.8% of his passes. That’s the best in NFL history for someone who has thrown at least 1,500 passes. They consider him a top-five QB.

6. Watson has thrown 104 TD passes compared to 36 interceptions. The Browns have not had a QB like him since Bernie Kosar in the late 1980s. He joins a team built to win now, with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb in the backfield, new receiver Amari Cooper and a good offensive line. The defense also should be a top 10 unit.

7. The Browns know they were not his first choice, or else why would he originally turn them down? But they also know it’s rare to have a chance at the QB at this stage of his career. So they were willing to give him the richest guaranteed contract in NFL history along with sending the three first-round picks to Houston.

8. Watson’s agent let it be known that his client wanted a new contract or he would not waive the no-trade clause. All the teams were talking about a new deal, not just the Browns.

9. Denver made a megatrade for Russell Wilson. Last year, the Rams traded two first-rounders and Jared Goff to Detroit for Matt Stafford – and won a Super Bowl. It was time to make a bold move. If you do that, it should be for a guy who plays the most important position on the field.

10. Coach Kevin Stefanski now has a mobile, smart QB who can run his offense and other types of offenses. If Stefanski can go 11-5 and the Browns beat Pittsburgh in the playoffs with Mayfield in 2020, the ceiling should be much higher with Watson.

11. They had been talking about a way to get Watson for months. This was their “Plan A.” They were determined to make it happen and knew the price would be high. GM Andrew Berry had developed a relationship with Watson’s agents.

12. The Browns know there will be salary-cap and draft consequences for the Watson deal, but it’s worth it to take a chance at a possible franchise-changing QB.

And that’s the part we don’t talk about much.

Stefanski is probably foaming at the mouth thinking about the scheme he can run with Watson, especially with our O line and running backs. Every defense has to respect watson’s ability to take off, and the fact that he’s accurate within the pocket as well as outside.

The PA game is gonna be devastating for our opponents.

You do this deal every time for a top 5 QB.

Salary cap will explode beginning next year with the new TV deal and will continue to climb every year afterwards. Two or three years from now the dollar number won't seem so large.

No doubt. Stefanski has never had the luxury of calling plays with a QB this talented. He's probably like a kid at Christmas drawing up new plays as we speak.

I guess my question is how much does Stefanski still plan on using 3TE sets? Was that a QB thing or a fixture of his offense? Do we still use the scheme if we don’t find a true #2? Or does Stefanski think DPJ can fill that role?

I’m guessing with the signing of our new ST returner, Schwartz is gonna play exclusively offense now. Does he line up on the outside, do with move DPJ inside?

I think Jakeem grant was brought in as more than a kick returner. I think he is a better receiver than Schwartz at this point. He isn't big, but there are a lot of undersized receivers in the league.

He has that zippeite doo da in his step that Schwartz lacks. His speed is just a fraction off Schwartz.

do you think he can still develop to something far better than what we've seen last season?

This is a good point about the schedule. Let’s hope that the NFL does us a favor by backloading the AFCN schedule again

Someone pointed out that the 9ers traded 3 firsts in order to draft Trey Lance. If true, our deal for Watson was actually a steal.

Baker will bring back a pick, and (even I've led the "how dare you" brigade) a Hunt trade will also mitigate a little of the draft capital we spent. Trading Hunt makes far more sense now. Between us throwing more and having a dual-threat at QB, I don't see enough carries for 2 feature backs. It makes more sense to roll with Johnson and Felton as the backups.

I'd like for us to find a way to still grab 1-2 of the good receivers in this draft. I'm not sure we can afford to keep rolling with a FA WR room. That group needs to get younger and cheaper over the next 2 offseasons.

I think Grant and Swartz are here to spread the field. In 11-personnel, you can't single cover Cooper. One of these receivers will always have one guy covering him. Speed kills. Plus you have a TE underneath and Chubb in the backfield.

Take Cooper out and switch to a 12-personnel. TEs underneath and two speed-receivers on the outside. Watson won't need superstar receivers.

This will become a potent offense.

I love the deal. Being a losing team for so many years involving the fans, players, coaches and ownership.

I see great moves being done by AB to make this team do what everyone wants it to do...

win ! win ! win !

Not giving up a player, still possibly signing Clowney also the chance to have Landry back.

Cutting the ones most expected.

Trading Keenum and picking up Brisset is a solid move.

With Stefanskis scheme Amari will be solid enough to spread the field. Not really sure the scheme needs a number one, just a really good number two .

This move still has the Browns with plenty of choices in the draft.

Seriously , the best number one pick so far has been Myles. (none other then Joe Thomas )

Browns drafts have been okay.

If trading for DW gives the Browns more opportunities to add to the D then so be it.

From a pure football view. This puts the Browns with a much needed Franchise QB for sometime

And do not reply to me any other thing then a football view. keep your personal character views to yourselves.

Yeah, I don't think anybody should be condemning another fan for how they feel. NONE of us really expected this trade and people need time to process. I'm not in the DW camp unless he gets cleared, but I'm happy for guys like you that like it from jump. Personally, I'm not convinced that he's that much better than Baker. But I haven't watched a lot of him playing yet either. So right now, I'll wait to see how it all pans out. I like the other moves, bringing guys in. I don't get letting Tretter go at this point, but Berry has done a good job, so I trust he'll plug the holes.

the Tretter thing was kind of talked about all last season, the money point of it. That was not a surprise.

The DW thing. This thread is about the deal. And if you can look at he deal part, put your emotions away for just this one thread, it may look like a pretty good thing.

DW got cleared of any crimes by a grand jury

True, but he's also nowhere near out of the woods. He's got the civil lawsuits to deal with, and those have a much lower bar. We are going to hear more details about the allegations and his behavior. The NFL will also come around for their pound of flesh, as well.

By itself, the deal is actually pretty good. The 49ers spent 3 1sts and a third to move up and select Trey Lance. That comparison alone could legitimize this deal (they sat Trey Lance his first year vs Watson being a established). Browns will move Baker to further mitigate the loss of picks (at least this year). Berry has put a bit of extra stress on his drafts because we desperately need young (translation: cheap) talent... especially at WR and DLine. The loss of firsts makes addressing that harder; but if this FO has proven anything, then it's the phrase "where there's a will there's a way".

As I said earlier, from a deal standpoint it is a good deal. You pointed out the Lance trade and that is a good point. Three #1 picks is now pretty much the standard to get a top Rookie prospect. We did it with 3 and some fairly meaningless change to get an established QB with plenty of room to add a few more years if desired.

I count the player as this years draft pick, so to me, two #1 picks was the premium. We have an extra 3rd rounder due to the FO executive the Vikings hired, so we aren't at a total loss thee, and swapping a 4th for a 5th isn't much of a loss.

As for this years draft, right now our biggest weakness looks to be interior defensive linemen. This is a good year for interior D linemen. Also in our favor is in most years, interior D linemen don't usually god high in the first round. Just the way positions are favored, by the time edge rushers, OT's, CB's WR, and QBs are picked over in the 1st round, most of your interior D linemen don't start exiting the board until the late 1st, and the bulk go in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. That plays in our favor.

Our front office is strong in all aspects. I don't have any doubt that we will be able to navigate the next several years without a 1st rounder just fine. We are strong at evaluating players, we are strong in planning, and we have a cap that is going to increase and a team that looks like the place to be, so free agency will be an active method of gaining talent.

If Watson is as good as people think he is. At minimum top 5 QB.
If Watson doesn't get suspended for more than 8-9 games.
If Watson doesn't flake out like he flaked out on Houston.
If Watson isn't a prima dona as is claimed in many articles.
If Watson can play in bad/cold weather and not wet the bed which is what I saw last time I remember him in cold weather.
If Stefanski uses his abilities to the max instead of simply plugin him to a largely similar offensive philosophy which is overwhelmingly conservative with the exception of a tnecancy to get cute and run gadget plays are key moments.

Then the deal will have been a win. Three 1st rounders would be a reasonable price to pay.

I thought I kept all opinion about non-football stuff out of my post? Did you get a different take away?

I'm happy that you started this tread...as at some point we have to stop talking about Baker - and Watson to a certain degree - and set our sites on the team and its future.

We have gone "all-in" right now. The investment in $$$, draft capital and credibility only makes sense if the FO thinks we have a window of opportunity that we could not delay in crawling through. I think that to be a huge mistake - not because of either QB but - because of what surrounds the QB position. We have ??? all over the place - including those with either QB. I'll get to that later.

Baker might not (have been) be "good-enough" or healed-up enough...Watson might get suspended for darn near 1/2 the season. But 2022 will be looking like a "tank" season if Watson gets the 6-8 game suspension. (Inadvertently tanking for Houston to get a great, extra #1 pick...Brissett isn't leading any team to a winning stretch.) If Watson gets 8 games, we made a monumental commitment to the "window" and simultaneously tossed year #1 out the window...that window closes a bit as contracts burn another year, players get older, Watson's cap hit grows (with MGs) and fans get more impatient.

The $$$ commitment is beyond substantial...forget the $$$ amount though...that bogey is GUARANTEED. We are tied to DW for the next 5 years - and year #1 might just be a tank year. And it is far from just the $$$ commitment...

Three 1sts...two 3rds...a 4th. Wow...just...wow. It is obvious that the FO did not want to run it back with Baker another year. They didn't want to waste another year on a guy who they don't believe in. No problem...maybe they are correct. Yet if Watson gets a season-crushing, 6-8 game suspension (remember, we were only a win or two from the division championship last year), we are STILL wasting another year. And significant draft capital was/is also wasted.

The hindsight projection of running it back with Baker in '22 on the CHANCE he really can be the guy in what is likely to now STILL be a wasted year is not so outrageous....then pile on the $$$ and the draft capital and it's hard not to shake one's head over that decision.

While I'm at with the hindsight projection, did the FO consider that with the likelihood that '22 is likely a wasted year anyway, could they have deployed something less than three 1sts...two 3rds...a 4th to get "their" guy in the '23 draft? My first thought is "no" the window is now...but year #1 of the DW window is already (IMO) shut...and the $$$ commitment is GUARANTEED.

Credibility with the fans is always fickle and fungible. There are bad actors in any profession. I'm not getting on a soapbox here about the allegations against DW. He's not going to cause me to quit being a fan. I'm not happy about it, but I can't change it. Credibility with other vets (aka potential free agents) is another "item". The FO has done a great job in recent years by "accommodating" guys who they don't want anymore (or can no longer have). But...love him or hate him...they did Baker dirty. Aging, serviceable vets aren't going to overlook that.

The Broncos swung for the fences with Wilson. Their window is NOW. They have weapons (real ones) and a stout defense. They don't have a vaunted OLine...but neither do we except on paper and IF several things fall juuuust right (we have terrific Guards and good guys elsewhere...but nothing special outside the Gs). Our window still has serious issues at WR, DT, DE - we need (4) new starters right there...(4) with no 1st Rd picks for (3) seasons to snag that top DE cornerstone-type guy.

We were a game or two from winning the division last year. Our division-leader went to the SB and we beat them twice - once with starters playing and once with backups playing. The move for Watson can only be described as being "ALL-IN"...expectations are - and should be - ridiculously high...yet year #1 is likely a waste. There is a lot to unwind in this thing...and that's without regard to the actual play of either QB.

We agree. I also expect a playoff team, but could see possibly missing this year. If we have to play Brissett for an extended period we might fall a game or so short.

I am not saying we will, but I do see that as a possibility. No doubt he should(or better) be better than Case. How much better he is over a injured Baker...I am not sure he is, but some things have been settled, so we can rely more on the run game.

In any event, we are in a good position over the next several years. The loss of the 1st rounds isn't going to hurt much in the shorter term, but they may say 5-6 years down the road.

But, lot's can happen between now and then.

I don't know if I would say we have a top 5 defense. We were 13th by football outsiders' DVOA metric. link That feels like a pretty fair ranking for last year to me.

Unfortunately, we've lost 3/4 of our starters on the defensive line. I'll feel a lot better about the defense if we get Clowney back and add a potential starting DT or two.

Bone...I'd like to say that I admire your enthusiasm and optimism...it's impressive...and even in a way as to not seem overly homer-ish. You make your points. Your tracking of JOK last draft was legendary. I also want to say that what I am about to post is in no way a disagreement with you in this thread...but a little more perspective on my concerns:

My fear with being "tied" to DW isn't about his age nor his likely performance. It's about him getting injured (see Baker) or getting into more legal troubles (see DW). Our OL needs a few things to fall just right to get back to being at least better-than-not-bad. One of those gets sideways and DW's health could be in jeopardy (see backup T's, starting RT recovery and sophomore-slump of LT).

Our defense today has major, major issues/holes on the DL. I think we are fine behind the DL...but needing (3) new DL starters this late into free agency and with no 1st Rd pick leaves us unlikely to land a difference-maker ion the DL outside of Clowney...IF he comes back.

I sincerely hope that your enthusiasm and optimism is warranted...maybe like it was with JOK? One can hope.

our defense was good enough to get us to the SB.

i think posters correctly brought up the AFC/NFC title match and SB game talking about how the defenses weren't all that impressive. our defense would've held its own again the bengals and Rams.

i'd feel a lot better about our offense ability to keep up if we got back Landry. right now Amari cooper makes our WR group decent. DPJ needs to be consistent (injured), Schwartz....man i dunno. but if we get Juice back, we go from decent to good. while not great, we dont need them to be great because of our rushing attack. we're far more balanced on offense talent wise than the Rams and Bengals, with a better O line and TE's.

im wondering whats taking so long for Clowney to sign. does he think he can get more somewhere else? waiting for the cap situation with Baker to clear up? we can get depth at DT in the draft, but i would like us to grab another LB. i understand Walker is a good locker room guy and leader, but dude was kinda slow on the field.

Landry would be a big help. It's obvious that a combination of Cooper and DPJ isn't enough. All one needs to do is look at the Texans 2020 starting WR's to see it.

On one side he had Brandon Cooks. 81 catches for 1150 yards and 6td's. On the other side he had Will Fuller 53 catches for 879 td's and 8td's.

Anyone trying to convince themselves that DPJ is a Will Fuller or Brandon Cooks have to be doing mental gymnastics. And even after having said all of that, Landry is more of a slot WR than a consistent outside threat.

If it at all includes an average over the year, then I'd say that ranking is low. We struggled out the gate and eventually figured things out. I would hope we could (more or less) pick up where we left off at the end of the year, so long as holes (DE and DT) are filled by end of off-season.

I agree with PEEN, it is easy to see how we miss the playoffs in 2022. Which would suck, because that cuts our window with team intact from 2-3 years down to 1-2 years.

I'm guessing he is suspended 8-10 games. Look at the AFC...

7 playoff spots, 10+ legitimate contenders for them:

Bills, Bengals, Ravens, Browns, Titans, Colts, Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos (Pats?, Dolphins?, Steelers?)

No one is going 14-2 this year, but the competition to get to 11 or 12 will be significant. Are we certain we could do that with half our games (or more) under Brissett? I'm not .

I can't disagree enough with that...but as of today...we have much less talent than we did last year.

i think posters correctly brought up the AFC/NFC title match and SB game talking about how the defenses weren't all that impressive. our defense would've held its own again the bengals and Rams.


We aren't even in their orbit.

The Bengals #1 WR had more or nearly-equal YAC than did our #1 stat WR had in TOTAL yards. Mixon was statistically the 3rd best RB in the NFL...despite the BS claim that their OL was trash. Usumoah is better than ANY TE we've had in decades (now gone...but they picked up Hayden Hurst...who I would take over Njoku or Bryant.) At least we NOW have a WR who could see the field for them.

The Rams have Jefferson and now Robinson and have Higbee (who I would also take over our potentials) and won the SB. We can't sniff their butts as of today.


My hope is that we've told him the deal and he wants the deal...he just needs to be his usual patient self until we free up Bakers $$$ from the cap.

We are ALL-IN...with a team that needs a TON more to be one just a QB away from getting after the Ring. (Ton = (4) new starters.)

I can't see how you think we need a "ton" of help. Last year the team constantly played with starters missing on both sides of the ball. If they can stay healthy, and not have the covid problem of guys being sat for a week just for contact, I believe they are good enough to do the job.

I also think the offensive woes, which also included covid protocols, injuries at key positions, and poor QB play, played a part in the defense struggling at times. There were many games where the were on the field way to long due to three and outs and turnovers.

The Dline was a weakness except for the DEs according to many. So if replaced with even equal talent, they should be alright. Signing Clowney would be huge, but if they can't, they just need to pick up someone who is capable, not necessarily a star. The draft is deep on the DT spot. I think they will be fine.

j/c:

I think the Browns are a talented team. I did not want Stefanski as a HC, but he has proven to be excellent in regards to scheme and is a very good play caller. I loved Dorsey and it irked me that Depo backstabbed him, but Berry has done a very good job.

I think we have some things going for us.

--QB: Watson is a gigantic upgrade over Baker. Both on the field and in the locker room.

--OL: We may have the best OL in football. Certainly top three. It was unfair that so many folks blamed the OL when our qb held the ball so long and panicked under pressure.

--We have three excellent RBs.

--Cooper is a good WR and DPJ can be a good third WR.

--We have very good corners.

--Myles is excellent.

Okay, but not great.

--Linebackers. JOK is a very good player. Smith is underrated.

--TEs are okay.

--Safeties are average.

Concerns:

--We need another WR. It really, really hurts that we lost OBJ and Juice. They would have flourished w/Watson.

--I don't like letting Tretter walk. He was the brains of the OL.

--The punter and place kicker worry me.

Overall, I think we have the makings of a very good team that should have a better culture w/the addition of Watson and departure of Baker. However, the AFC is freaking loaded. Josh Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Hurbert, R. Wilson, Lamar. And most of those teams have added key pieces. If we were in the NFC, we would be a lock for the playoffs and maybe the favorite. But man, the AFC is really tough.

I agree with everything you have stated here, as usual lol.

I like the Brisset signing as well. It gives Stefanski the opportunity to unveil a new offense designed around Watson, if he is indeed suspended, with someone that has a similar style (RPO's, etc)

I define needing (4) starters as a ton - make it (5) if Conklin is delayed in his comeback...if he comes back...and (4) if we re-sign Clowney. Three "Ifs" there. I underlined parts of your post ^ as I think it highlights the issue...realizing/admitting that I picked and chose there...not trying to be cute.

I don't recollect reading anywhere that DT is "deep" in this draft...but I hope you are correct as we need (2). We have a 2nd and two 3rds where we "might" get an impact guy...overall though we need at least (4) new starters and free agency is down to the mid tier and lower guys other than Clowney.

FWIW...I don't disagree with your comments on last year...I'm just weary of re-hashing it because I can't change it and I'm left with hoping it won't roll forward.

I think we're covered on the Conklin side, as we brought back Hubbard. He's very adequate to fill in in the short term. We're right back in trouble if guys go down early again, though (like last year).