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Getting the compensatory pick is dependent on how many free agents we sign (really what they get paid) versus how much money other teams pay for guys we let walk during the off-season. Over-simplified there...but close enough.

Point #1 - IF we are to get ANY compensatory picks for Mayfield, it will be for the 2024 draft. That is not "next year"...it is the year AFTER next.

Point #2 - We do not have a 1st Rd pick again for 2023. We love 1yr contracts. Put those two things together and the chances that the Browns will NOT be players in free agency after the '22 season are likely slim. Our window is now. Hunt is a free agent after this year...there are many others that will be FAs after this year that don't come to mind right now. If both Mayfield AND Hunt AND ??? were added together, we might have some hope in the compensatory formula...but that depends on how much new FA $$$ we spend.

Whatever we can get for Baker in a trade is better than rolling the dice with the possibility of getting a compensatory pick...a compensatory pick for Baker is too far away (when your window is now) and much too uncertain (given no #1 draft pick and our 3rd Rd pick being late for '23 AND expiring contracts and possibly needing FA signings to keep up.)

However, if we still have Baker after the trade deadline...THEN considering the compensatory pick becomes viable. At that point, do you cut him to free up the roster spot? Or do you keep him a few more months (since you are paying him anyway) and THEN hope for the compensatory pick the year after next.

I frequently read talk about a 3rd Rd compensatory pick as if it's guaranteed (it's not) and for next year (which it's not).

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What more can they do to him.. They already screwed him...

Wouldn't it be something if Watson gets a 1 year suspension...


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That's a good post. I would hope that we can trade him during TC or before the trade deadline if another team loses his starter. I would only keep him all year if we could not trade him. There is just no way I would release him. I also am not a fan of paying a significant portion of his salary in order to move him. Of course, these are just my opinions.

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Originally Posted by cfrs15
The Browns leverage is that Drew Locke and Sam Darnold are terrible.

We already know those guys are terrible. The leverage - if there is any - is that Ruhle in Carolina is coaching for his job and Darnold is his horse. Carroll has the cred to tank for a season in Seattle. If Carroll thinks he can compete for the playoffs, he won't do it with Locke and Geno Smith.

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Just a friendly reminder. Let's try and keep the conversation about what we think the Browns should do w/Baker moving forward. Someone can start another thread about just how good/bad Baker is and who is or isn't at fault.

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Originally Posted by THROW LONG
It's asking the wrong question. ...

But! the Browns guardrails are ruining the Browns, and I'm quite confident history will inevitably prove out that statement with the evidence of time.

Guys 28-30 years old, the NFL is not a 24 year olds league. The traditional approach to the dbs.
the traditional approach to developing your own group over time, keeping the team together, ... < in large regards to their defense.

I'm not going to address all the other crazy points in your post (like signing Baker to a $35-$40M contract), but I will get in these 2.

The guardrails are ruining the Browns? In case you weren't aware, the Browns have been a joke since way before the guardrails were put in place. There was nothing left to ruin before Depo came in.

And about continuity: the Bengals defense, which you point to, had 5 new starters last year. Our defense this year will likely have 2 "new" starters (I put that in quotation, because those 2 new starters at DT were most likely still on the team last year).

And another fact, continuity is over-rated. We had all 11 starters back on offense last year, plus most reserves....how did that work out for us? We had 9 new starters on defense last year, and that unit far outperformed the offense.

Your arguments make no logical sense.

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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
That's a good post. I would hope that we can trade him during TC or before the trade deadline if another team loses his starter. I would only keep him all year if we could not trade him. There is just no way I would release him. I also am not a fan of paying a significant portion of his salary in order to move him. Of course, these are just my opinions.


Maybe more to your reply to WSU's point, I don't know if we would get a comp pick for the guy or not, but if we out and out cut him, I think that eliminates any chance at a comp pick.

As he stated, any pick would be for 2024. I am not sure if guys like Cooper would factor in the contracts against. I think it would be any free agents we start to pick up next year, for the 2023 season to count against any comp possibilities for Baker in 2024. We also have several contracts up after this season. Add those with Bakers and we might stand to gain several picks.

As I said before, any chance of getting any compensation for him is to trade him or keep him and see if it helps with the comp pick formula.

To add...I am not going to get in to Bakers worth, but I don't think anybody thinks the guy is worthless.

Last edited by Ballpeen; 06/02/22 09:57 AM.

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The first thing the FO should do with Baker is determine if he is an assett or a liability, then treat him as such.


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When is the trade deadline during the season. I do not know lets say it goes until week 6 (just a guess, please advise the real deadline).

The best thing for the Browns would be to Play Baker as he is under contract. This way he is showcased to the NFL that he has rehabbed and is playing well. We then trade him week 6 probably eating the portion of his salary that is left. The only problem I see is what if he plays well and we win 6-0 during that span.

Another scenario is he is on our roster but I do not know if we can ban him from the facilities. Especially if he is rehabbing an injury. But again play him in preseason and showcase him to potential buyers. Trade him prior to the season.

Another scenario is he is on our roster and he never gets any reps with the #1s. Game time we put him on the inactive list. Never playing him regardless if we are winning or losing with Brissett. Get our Compensation 3rd round pick and that is that. Of course if we are losing which would be hard to do cause I think our Defense will be awesome and our running game will control the game. But if we are losing the fans will get restless seeing Baker on the bench or listed on the inactive list.

At some point where are we with cutting our nose to spite our face? We have painted ourselves in a corner. I hope the suspension is not long but I am going with the mindset we will see an indefinite suspension with a 1 year minimum.
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I think those boxes are smack-dab in the middle of an incomplete flowchart as he has been both since the moment they hopped on the plane. Now they're playing the waiting game until the liability outweighs the prospect and value of reward for the asset.


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I have reached a point where I don't care.

He is not in the Browns plans anymore. They have brought in 3 quarterbacks.

He is going to get paid.

The one scenario that is possible and would complicate things is DW suspended for a year. Brissett starts and is injured. Is Josh Dobbs really an option?

At that point if you started Dobbs there is no backup.

So, Baker should get video of the practices and have a playbook. If DW is suspended for a year. Baker should return to practice.

This is professional football. DW is accepted in the locker.

Baker will be accepted as well if the situation dictates it.

I think by game four at the latest something will shake loose. There are numerous teams that are not settled at quarterback. Baker is not a cancer. He is also proven to be at least a 500 quarterback. There are starters who are not close to 500.

He is worth it for a number of teams. The money is not major for a starter. But if we can get a third or fourth and it takes paying half his salary to make the deal then do it.

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I think its been proven that if we keep Baker we will get a 3rd round compensation pick. So I don't see us trading Baker for a 3rd round pick or less when that is what we got doing nothing. Either way Baker gets his money and most likely we will be paying for it.
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Originally Posted by eotab
I think its been proven that if we keep Baker we will get a 3rd round compensation pick. So I don't see us trading Baker for a 3rd round pick or less when that is what we got doing nothing. Either way Baker gets his money and most likely we will be paying for it.
jmho

I was hoping someone would verify this - I have seen it written that we WON'T get a Comp pick if Baker doesn't play.

I don't know so I have to relay on what I google and find to be accurate - but here it is:

https://factoryofsadness.co/2022/05...ield-during-the-regular-season-busted/3/
The whole “just wait until he signs elsewhere in 2023 and the Browns get a 3rd round pick” crowd is not going to like this part. If the Browns keep Mayfield, and he goes into free agency in 2023 having not played a single snap of the football in 2022, the Browns aren’t getting a third-round pick for Mayfield.


Not a lot else out there. I don't know if his playing time makes a difference. I think the number of free agents we lose (vs how many we sign?) and the contract they sign with another team all are factors.


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We need cfrs and/or Milk on the case. Those guys know their stuff when it comes to matters like this.

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Originally Posted by mgh888
Originally Posted by eotab
I think its been proven that if we keep Baker we will get a 3rd round compensation pick. So I don't see us trading Baker for a 3rd round pick or less when that is what we got doing nothing. Either way Baker gets his money and most likely we will be paying for it.
jmho

I was hoping someone would verify this - I have seen it written that we WON'T get a Comp pick if Baker doesn't play.

I don't know so I have to relay on what I google and find to be accurate - but here it is:

https://factoryofsadness.co/2022/05...ield-during-the-regular-season-busted/3/
The whole “just wait until he signs elsewhere in 2023 and the Browns get a 3rd round pick” crowd is not going to like this part. If the Browns keep Mayfield, and he goes into free agency in 2023 having not played a single snap of the football in 2022, the Browns aren’t getting a third-round pick for Mayfield.


Not a lot else out there. I don't know if his playing time makes a difference. I think the number of free agents we lose (vs how many we sign?) and the contract they sign with another team all are factors.

The Browns are certainly not guaranteed a comp pick for Baker if they hold on to him and he leaves as an UFA. The Browns would first have to lose more players in FA than they sign in FA and if that barrier is met, then calculate the contract values into the formula.

The NFL's formula includes determining whether or not a player falls under the compensatory free agent (CFA) status, which is defined as such: A player who has signed with a new club during the prior free agency signing period (before 4 p.m. ET on the Monday following the most recent draft), or whose rights were retained by the prior franchise by tendering the unrestricted free agent; and a player who ranked within the top 35 percent of all NFL players according to average yearly compensation, with additional points assigned based on postseason honors earned or participation (total snaps played). Clubs who have lost more CFAs than they have signed or acquired are eligible to receive compensatory picks. Transition tag or franchise tagged players who receive an offer sheet and whose offer sheet is not matched by the tagging franchise do not qualify as compensatory free agents.

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-compensatory-draft-picks-what-you-need-to-know

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I had to read it four times...LOL....but, that was helpful. Thanks Milk.

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From what I have been able to gather, playing time plays a major role in how players are valued in regards to which round you will receive as a compensatory pick. Listed #4 in the methodology section....

The Basics and Methodology of Projecting the NFL’s Compensatory Draft Picks

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

The information comes from the 2020 Collective Bargaining Agreement.


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So we have...

Quote
Add anywhere from 25 to 100 points for players who played a percentage of snaps on offense or defense in the range of 25% to 100%. (Kickers and punters are given a different point addition unrelated to snap counts.)

So, is that during the life of the contract or the previous season only? If it's the life of the contract Mayfield will have played in about 75% of the snaps, if it's the previous season only -- that number would be zero. More ambiguity.

Edit to add: The other parameters seem to apply to the life of the contract, so there's that.

Last edited by FATE; 06/02/22 01:08 PM.

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I have no idea. Just trying to dig up anything I can that pertains to the formula the NFL uses to determine what round of a compensatory pick you will receive. It appears to be a very complicated formula.


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So it sounds like as though he would be treated as any other FA who leaves the team. There was a post a little while back that speculated it would be different because he was a 1st round pick. I am not surprised that is not the case. It is what it is.

There are some on here who think his injury is the cause of the lack of interest. Does anyone know the timeline on when he should be recovered from that and able to start working out? Or pass a physical? I guess that is the next milestone to look forward to in regards to moving on from this fiasco.


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Here's my bottom line...

Berry and our FO seem very adept at "working the system", so I'm sure there are things they can do that would influence the formula to a point that it results in a 3rd round pick. The "3rd round pick" seems pretty appealing, but the truth is that it's the lowest of low 3rd round picks. There's not much of a drop-off between that and what the average team would provide (as far as value) in any 4th round pick.

I'm sure the FO would rather put this to rest asap and accept a 4th rounder for Baker. And isn't the current, simplistic thinking that a "x" round pick moves up a full round, season over season? In other words, a 4th round pick in 2023 holds about the same value as a 3rd in 2024? We would get that pick in 2023 as opposed to the comp pick in 2024.

The sticking point then becomes salary and how much we are willing to absorb. The "art of the deal" dictates that the receiving team would receive what they deem as a starting-caliber (obvious, or they wouldn't be trading for him) for low draft compensation and would be expected to absorb a certain portion of the salary. The other side of that coin is the fact that the player's salary doesn't really impact our cap for the year anyway. A lot to unpack, but bottom line is "sharing" the cost of the salary is still a win-win for both teams, it's only the amount that comes into question.

Teams that want Mayfield know they are "playing chicken" once the season begins, and that works in the Browns favor. As soon as any QB goes down, the market expands. I don't expect Berry to budge much in accepting less than a 4th with shared salary responsibility unless the dark cloud (which could become much darker, depending on the looming Watson suspension) outweighs the "value" we feel we would be getting in return for Mayfield.


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It does, thanks digging as it at least adds a little more clarity to the confusion.


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I think that's about where we are. I think paying $10-13M of Baker's salary is going to have to be a given if a trade is possible.

Another potential angle - how the NFL feels it treats a player no longer in it's plans. Keeping Baker for a year just to potentially get a 2024 5th round (spit balling) compensatory pick would probably not be a good look. Personally I am in the camp that don't feel the FO have done much wrong (ignoring the off field DW issues) - it's a business and Baker needs to get a thicker skin, stay off social media and get on with being the best QB he can be and that's it ... but there are talking heads, ex-players and fans that have all put out a narrative that Baker is entitled to feel at least a little aggrieved and the Browns should do the right thing by him regards releasing him. I hope we get a dance partner to trade with - if not I would lean on ending the hoopla and let the dude go and simply cut him. My decision time frame? Start of TC.


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I think when it comes to Baker the Browns did a terrible job with PR. That's a very critical job of an NFL franchise whether people like it or not. If something concerning playing time, contacts and as a players future is concerned is conducted behind closed doors, that's one thing. But when you make a statement for public consumption saying one thing and then doing another, that's not a good look.

In reality a GM and FO's job is to try and upgrade your team at every position. That's exactly what they did with going out and outbidding the entire NFL to get watson from a purely talent at the position standpoint.

But saying one thing and then doing the opposite can't be spun into a good thing from a PR point of view. Hopefully they learn from it moving forward.


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The compensation thing is rather confusing. I am thankful for Milk's post, but I am still not sure I completely understand how it works. It would be nice to know for sure because that would help me formulate my opinion on the Baker situation, but it is what it is.

Of course, what's important is that I believe the FO understands how it works. We have a very intelligent guys running the show and I trust them to handle this properly. I am not in the camp that is blaming them for this situation.

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The 5 O’Clock Club: Explaining how compensatory draft picks work (Updated 25 Feb)

A lot of misunderstandings about the system. Reading through comments on the forums over the past several weeks, it became clear to me that there are a lot of misunderstandings about the compensatory pick system.

The compensatory draft pick system is very confusing, not the least because the rules for it are not written down anywhere. It’s a ‘secret’ system that the league owners administer for themselves.

However, through close observation over a number of years, certain people have created a set of rules that seem to explain how the system works and are able to project compensatory picks annually with great accuracy.

While OverTheCap didn’t figure out the rules, they have written extensively about the Compensatory Draft Pick system, and they publish a “Cancellation Chart” each season to help readers understand which teams are likely to receive compensatory picks.

Ninety to ninety-five percent of everything I know about the Compensatory Draft Pick system I learned by reading OverTheCap.

Determining compensatory picks is a detailed and complex system.

I will provide links to the key articles on the OTC website here, and I will quote extensively from OTC rather than trying to re-invent the wheel in terms of explaining the system, however, I will try to provide more a summary of how it works, rather than the detailed explanations available on the OTC website.

If you find yourself curious about how it all works, I suggest that you follow these links for in-depth discussion:

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

List of Compensatory Picks from 2015 onward

First, a word on the “importance” of Compensatory Picks
It’s good sport on Washington's Hogs Haven to laugh at the idea that compensatory picks should be considered when making free agency decisions, or that they have value.

Losing a top-ranked free agent like Kirk Cousins who gets a top-tier contract with another team has the potential to bring a 3rd round pick as compensation.

You aren’t impressed by the value of a 3rd round pick? Here’s what James Dorsett wrote recently concerning the value of a pick in the third round:

Every single year teams find gems in the third round between the 75th and 95th picks: Cliff Avril, NaVorro Bowman, Jimmy Graham, Russell Wilson, T.Y. Hilton, Keenan Allen, Trai Turner, David Johnson, Danielle Hunter, Kareem Hunt, the list goes on and on.

Hitting on guys in this range is far from a sure thing, but you want to take every chance you can get at acquiring players of this caliber for the bottom-basement price the CBA calls on teams to pay players taken in this part of the draft. Over the Cap projects the 78th pick in this year’s draft to receive a contract of under $3.5 million total. That is virtually nothing in today’s NFL.

When you miss out on a value like this or you give it away, as the Redskins did in our next case, you have to go out and find a replacement that is likely going to be much more costly in terms of hits to your salary cap.

In this case, James was railing against the Redskins for trading away a third round pick to acquire Alex Smith, but his thoughts on the value of a draft pick apply just as much when the question revolves around the league giving you extra picks in next year’s draft.

How much value can be involved?

Well, in 2018 year’s draft:

the Bengals will have 3 extra picks (3rd, 5th and 7th).
The Texans will have 4 extra picks (3rd, two 6ths, 7th).
The Cowboys have two 4ths and two 5ths.
Green Bay gets a 3rd and three 5ths.
The Cardinals have 3 extra picks (3rd, 4th, 5th).
How would you feel if the Redskins were able to choose three or four extra players in next year’s draft?

How much flexibility would the team have to trade up for a player they loved if they had a couple of extra draft picks to throw into the deal?

Compensatory picks are certainly not the be-all-and-end-all of NFL roster building, but they are not just throw-away picks either. Compensatory picks offer real value in terms of 32 additional players added to NFL rosters.

So, before you laugh at someone who talks about managing free agency to get (or keep) compensatory picks, remember that they have real value in next year’s NFL draft.

The basics of the compensatory system
Again, all the material in this section is summarized from an OverTheCap article on the topic, or in some cases, from their original source.

1. To qualify for compensatory picks, you need to lose more (or better) free agents than you sign from other teams
As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); [generally speaking,] he must sign during the UFA signing period

There are some detailed exceptions to these rules, but they are not really important to this summary.

2. Each qualifying free agent must be assigned a value based on his contract, playing time and postseason honors, and that value corresponds to a round in the draft.
Start with the actual APY of the contract signed.
Subtract from the actual APY any money that the compensatory formula does not count. It has been determined that workout bonuses, incentives, and salary escalators are the most common money figures that the compensatory formula does not count.
Adjust the APY by applying a coefficient based upon the percentage of offensive or defensive snaps the player took in his first year under the contract.
Apply a positive coefficient to each UFA that obtained postseason honors
3. Once an adjusted APY has been determined, each UFA is given a value that either (i) assigns him as a CFA to a particular round ranging from the 3rd to the 7th, or (ii) does not qualify him as a CFA at all
The system for doing this is quite complex, but you don’t really have to understand it. OverTheCap publishes a cancellation chart on which they show their projected value for every free agent who changes teams in an off season. At any given point in the free agency period, you can click to this chart and see the status of any NFL team you are interested in.

4. Finally, once each team’s list of CFAs lost and gained are determined and valued, one-to-one cancellations are applied. Cancellations work as follows:
A CFA gained by a team cancels out the highest-valued available CFA lost that has the same round valuation of the CFA gained.
If there is no available CFA lost in the same round as the CFA gained, the CFA gained will instead cancel out the highest-available CFA lost with a lower round value.
A CFA gained will only cancel out a CFA lost with a higher draft order if there are no other CFAs lost available to cancel out.
Any team that has more CFAs lost than CFAs gained will then be eligible for compensatory picks for the CFAs lost that were not cancelled out by CFAs gained.

The key point here is that a team will only be awarded one or more compensatory picks if that team loses more qualifying free agents to other teams than it signs in a single off season.

To maximize the compensatory picks received, the team would lose free agents with high APY (average contract $ per year) and sign no one, or players with low APY.

5. There are two key restrictions that may limit the number of compensatory picks a team may receive:
There is a strict limit of 32 compensatory picks that are awarded every year. If the formula initially awards more than 32 compensatory picks, all picks ranked 33rd and below are not awarded
A team may not be awarded any more than four compensatory picks in one year. If the formula initially awards a team more than four, the lowest of the picks over the per-team limit of four are not awarded
When would the pick be awarded?
Compensatory picks are awarded by the NFL Management Council, and apply to the draft in the year that follows the Free Agency period. In other words, free agents who are signed in this (2018) off season will determine compensatory picks used by teams in the 2019 draft.

How valuable is a pick awarded this off-season?
In terms of value, there are a few things to take into account:

Compensatory picks in each round are used after the 32 ‘standard’ picks have been made, so they represent the lowest draft positions in that round.
In terms of TRADE VALUE, draft picks are typically deemed to be worth one round less than a draft pick a year earlier. In other words, a 4th round draft pick in next year’s draft (2019) is generally deemed to be equivalent in value to a 5th round pick in this year’s draft (2018) due to the value of time. Of course, when selecting players in 2019, a 4th round pick is just that - a 4th round pick.
Compensatory picks are fully tradeable, so they have value in helping teams move up in the draft. This is a fairly new rule -- originally, compensatory picks couldn’t be traded.
Which upcoming Redskin free agents are likely to qualify for the Compensatory formula?
First, and most importantly, you need to understand that a player who re-signs with the team he played for at the end of the 2017 season has no effect on the calculation (except insofar as that team doesn’t need to sign a player from another team to replace him).

By way of example, if Mason Foster had not been signed by the Redskins, but had instead left via free agency, he would probably been included in the calculation of compensatory picks awarded.

Since Mason Foster re-signed with the Redskins, he did not change teams, and he has no effect at all on the Compensatory Draft Pick formula.

This means that re-signing a team’s own free agents has potentially more value than signing other team’s free agents, since it improves the opportunity to gain compensatory draft picks.

That said, these are the players from the Redskin roster who are most likely to have an impact on the formula if they leave via free agency between March and July:

Kirk Cousins
Terrelle Pryor Sr.
Zach Brown
Niles Paul
Trent Murphy
Junior Galette
Spencer Long
Bashaud Breeland
Ryan Grant
Please note that this is not a comprehensive list of upcoming Redskin unrestricted free agents, but a list of those most likely to qualify for compensatory picks if signed away by another team. For a comprehensive list of 2017 Redskin players who currently don’t have a contract for 2018, see Monday’s 5 o’clock club.

Just a reminder that trades, Restricted Free Agents, and re-signing your own free agents don’t count
Alex Smith and Kendall Fuller have no impact on the Compensatory Draft Pick calculation because trades aren’t included... only unrestricted free agents.

Re-signing Redskin free agents has no impact either. For example, if the Redskins re-sign Galette and Long, there would be no change (positive or negative) to the compensatory draft picks the Redskins would qualify for.

Also, RFAs & ERFAs are not included in the system.

To think the Browns would automatically get a 3rd round pick for Mayfield is not in stone. If the Browns sign a 5 Free Agent's and only lose Mayfield, they get no pick. If the Browns sign 1 free agent and only lose Mayfield, the Browns get no Compensatory Draft Pick. If the Browns lose 8 players to Free Agency but sign 2 Free Agents and Mayfield grades out highest, he would be cancelled by one of the top FA the Browns signed.

If Mayfield grades out below 32nd of the available free agents comps (Vers believes Mayfield is not a top 32 QB) then the Browns get nothing.

Last edited by steve0255; 06/02/22 04:58 PM. Reason: spelling

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Other than these two links.........


https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

..........was this all in one article or was your opinion intermingled w/the article? I'm having a hard time deciphering some of it.

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Just a copy and paste. The layman's explanation is at the end.


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Thanks. Good article.

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Just regarding Baker in general and whether - as some have claimed he isn't liked in the locker room which I never bought into:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/06/02/browns-players-explain-crazy-thing-baker-mayfield-odell-beckham

The two Browns teammates have nothing against either Beckham or Mayfield individually. Owusu-Koramoah called Beckham “one of the best teammates I’ve had,” while Newsome called him “the best teammate.”

However, Newsome also described Mayfield as “a great teammate, too,” which he called the “crazy thing” about the “off” situation with the two. The cornerback mentioned he would often go out to dinner with Mayfield and the rest of the offense, and the quarterback would treat him well throughout their time together.


Given Baker is goneski from the team, there is zero need to give the guy fake praise. jmo


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Originally Posted by eotab
I think its been proven that if we keep Baker we will get a 3rd round compensation pick. So I don't see us trading Baker for a 3rd round pick or less when that is what we got doing nothing. Either way Baker gets his money and most likely we will be paying for it.
jmho

As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire.

To be clear, if the Browns sign more free agents than they lose - the Browns get zero compensation picks.

Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on SALARY, PLAYING TIME and POST SEASON HONORS. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

If Mayfield plays zero games in 2022 for the Browns, the Browns would be lucky to get a 7th round pick just because of the games not played.

Even if the Browns have Watson get suspended for the year and Mayfield plays every game in 2022, he would be the top CFA player for the Browns, they would lose the compensatory pick as soon as the Browns signed another Free Agent.

Once each team’s list of CFAs lost and gained are determined and valued, one-to-one cancellations are applied. Cancellations work as follows:
A CFA gained by a team cancels out the highest-valued available CFA lost that has the same round valuation of the CFA gained.
If there is no available CFA lost in the same round as the CFA gained, the CFA gained will instead cancel out the highest-available CFA lost with a lower round value.
A CFA gained will only cancel out a CFA lost with a higher draft order if there are no other CFAs lost available to cancel out.
Any team that has more CFAs lost than CFAs gained will then be eligible for compensatory picks for the CFAs lost that were not cancelled out by CFAs gained.


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Originally Posted by PitDAWG
I have no idea. Just trying to dig up anything I can that pertains to the formula the NFL uses to determine what round of a compensatory pick you will receive. It appears to be a very complicated formula.
ha, ... tyler owens, (as he pronounces it,) or Rowland as it reads, on locked on- Tennessee titans podcast, circa August 2021, explained the formula in about fifteen minutes. It went something like this.
take all the players that sign with new teams in free agency, now, there are only so many picks to give out, so,
it (in practice becomes) tiered, to what round of pick your team receives, and it's based on the dollar/money value of the new contract.

And then, it's contradicted by the dollar/money value of the contracts your team spends on free agents your team brings in in the same year.

So that, If Baker left the Browns and the Browns signed no other off season free agents from other former teams, and Bakers new contract was for say, 20 million dollars plus, then the Browns would have a net pick up of one draft pick based on that 20 million dollar contract, and where that ranks in relation to all the free agent deals across the league.

Now, if in the same year, the Browns, signed say, PLayer (superman) as a free agent from another former team, and paid that player a new FA contract anywhere in the same tier, I6-20 million say, then the fact the Browns signed that other player would totally cancel out any compensatory pick possibly given to the Browns for losing your free agent.

And it works in multiples, for instance you can lose 3 players and sign 3 players and get 0 compensatory picks. And it's based on the relative dollar value of the NEW contracts players sign for on their new teams.
000 dollars to about 4 million is maybe one tier (late round comp picks 5th round?)
Greater than 4 million /year to 6 million may end up another tier. (slightly better positioned comp picks)
6-I0 million may end up another tier. (even better positioned compensatory picks, maybe 3rd-4th round)
and then so on, so that if only one or 2 players sign as a free agent on a new contract over I2-I5 million dollars then that team would end up with a better compensatory pick.
AT least that is how it had worked out in a previous season being reffered to.


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Originally Posted by steve0255
If Mayfield plays zero games in 2022 for the Browns, the Browns would be lucky to get a 7th round pick just because of the games not played.

I don't see it that way. The way I understand it, playing time considerations are for/from the free agents' playtime (& performance, salary, etc) from the 1st yr of their new contract with their new team. Not the last year with their old team. Generally speaking...the comp pick (+)-check-mark for the team is based on the FA's value to his NEW team...not what was his value to his old team.

The comp pick is calculated AFTER the 'next' season has completed - so... lose guy after '22 season...see how he fared in '23 season...run through the grinder and calculate comp pick for '24 draft.

The comp pick "value" is much more attractive to the team that signs Baker than it is for the Browns...especially if he is a one year rental for '22. Trade for him...have the Browns pick up his salary (or some of it)...don't re-sign Baker after the season...then he becomes a (+)-check-mark in new team's comp formula for the following draft.

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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
The compensation thing is rather confusing. I am thankful for Milk's post, but I am still not sure I completely understand how it works. It would be nice to know for sure because that would help me formulate my opinion on the Baker situation, but it is what it is.

Of course, what's important is that I believe the FO understands how it works. We have a very intelligent guys running the show and I trust them to handle this properly. I am not in the camp that is blaming them for this situation.

No doubt the comp formula is complicated. It might be as guarded a secret as the formula for coca cola...lol

I know there are a few sites out there that seem to have it pretty down pretty close and seem to be accurate when predicting what teams are going to get picks each year.

I don't believe the playing part has anything to do with it. If a player got injured I believe you would still get a pick for him if he left via free agency as long as you meet the requirements of the formula used.

All I think I know is it has to do with dollar value of contracts gained v dollar value of contracts lost. After that it is too complicated and frankly not worth it to me to try to investigate further.

As I said earlier, if there is even a chance we can gain something in the way of a pick by keeping him, it is worth doing so.

I know many are down on Baker, but he isn't simply some scrub QB with no value. At the very least he would be the best back-up QB in the league and teams trade for back-up's all the time. I don't think he is simply a back-up. He is a good starting QB. Good enough that had Watson not been available, he would still be the starting QB for the Browns. He may not have been a top 5 type QB like Watson, but he was a middle of the pack guy who many teams want...and they do. One of them is going to step forward and make a trade before the season starts.

The problem is right now we have ZERO leverage. None. As the season inches forward we will begin to gain some.


If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.

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Interesting take as it shows where the potential value is for both parties. If we are to trade, we will eat salary, some of it. Maybe agree to that with a performance pick in return. I would think a team would find the multiple "plus" outcomes could make this work. They get Baker; they could move a player or low pick; they get his salary paid for in part (or in cash, which I doubt); and they also get to 'buy' the potential of a comp pick. Many moving parts to work with there, even if it is a "hold your nose" trade. Still, it will be the buyer's markets, I suspect: How little of how much can I get away with for BM? How many ways can that benefit my team?
This makes the risk of his consistency issues and his recovery fade a bit in my judgment. Nice insight, Willie.


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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
I had to read it four times...LOL....but, that was helpful. Thanks Milk.

My attention span with all my meds I couldn't get through that...so what was your synopsis on what you read 4 time....lol laugh


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Originally Posted by eotab
Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
I had to read it four times...LOL....but, that was helpful. Thanks Milk.

My attention span with all my meds I couldn't get through that...so what was your synopsis on what you read 4 time....lol laugh

I could try to explain some things, but I would just sound foolish. I know my lane. I know a lot about the game of football, but I am not worthy to speak legalese. I'll leave that to others who are more versed on the subject. I just hope things work out for the team I love and that old guys like you and I finally get to get to experience our dream of the Browns winning a Super Bowl.

Last edited by Versatile Dog; 06/03/22 10:43 AM. Reason: Typo
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Be careful. You gave an objective post on Baker. You may now be labeled a Baker lover.


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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888, the Browns should not make any move with baker until the league makes their ruling on Dashaun. If the suspension is four games or less then get what we can for him and we roll with Brissett. More than four we go to baker and his agent and offer him the starting position for the duration of the suspension. He can show the league he is recovered and if he plays at the level he can play I guarantee some of these teams who are rolling with the darnolds, trubiskeys, lock etc will see an opportunity to upgrade their qb position.

I think the idea that some teammates won’t play with baker because of something he has said in the past suggests we have junior high students playing for us. We do not. We have adult professionals who want to make the playoffs. If they see that baker gives us the best chance they will be all in.

I just hope we hear soon!

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Agree entirely for the most part. Someone mentioned the possibility that the biggest bridge burnt in all of this might be the relationship between KS and BM... that might make it more difficult. Still doable but more of a challenge.


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