DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2022 NFL Season Browns 2022 Win Loss Record Prediction Thread

The first 4 games will be a barometer on the season for us IMO. I don't think we'll do any better than 2-2 but if we can somehow win at least 3 or all 4 (hard to fathom) we may end up having a better year than most of us think.

ThanK you. This fan base screams and cries way too much. Not one game has been played and as low as 2 wins?!? I predict we will win some and lose some. It’s not like my life is any different either way. It’s a game I’m not gambling on.

For the past 4 years, the Browns have been penciled
In as a playoff team. But as the case, this franchise has failed
To be a contender more often than not.
Every year we read the same "this is our year, it has too much
Talent to finish with only 6 wins" etc etc
Has this team really improved enough to be a playoff team?
Alot of teams on the Browns schedule has made upgrades

Is Brissett a upgrade over Mayfield?
The WR room may be better than last years
But I have seen nothing from DPJ or Schwartz so far that
Screams TD makers or playmakers.
I don't see any difference makers at the DTs
The LBers are meh other than JOK.

I just don't see enough that makes this a playoff roster
Yeah the Browns can run the ball
How did that work for the Titans last year?

It takes more than not turning the ball over to win a game with a @uarterback. If Jacoby Brissett stands well in the pocket,
doesn't turn the ball over, and distributes the ball to the eligible receivers effectively,
and the Browns still have no better than a 3 and out, or a single first down followed by a punt, on 4 out of 5 drives.
Then that is almost as bad as a bunch of turnovers, and the Browns will lose on game day(s). (Analytics)

if we don’t go 2-2 or better in the first 4 we’re in for a LONG year

Agreed. But except for 3 or 4 aren't we used to LONG years?

Don't let them get you down. The thread is supposed to be fun. None of us know the future. Hell, I would have never believed you if you told me we were going to have a losing record last year. In the end, our predictions mean nothing. This should just be fun.

The Browns of course can reach the playoffs.
But alot has to go in their favor. I just don't see alot of room
For error.
I think Stefanski is going to have to do the best coaching
Job of his life.he is going to have to figure out how
To get at least 25 points per game out of the offense
Woods needs to create schemes to force more turnovers
Return game needs to give Brissett short fields
And Brissett will have to play above his head in order
To really give this team a chance

@Carolina - LOSS
NY Jets - WIN
Pittsburgh - LOSS
@Atlanta - WIN
LA Chargers - LOSS
NE Patriots - LOSS
@Baltimore - LOSS
Cincinnati - LOSS
@Miami - WIN
@Buffalo - LOSS
Tampa - LOSS (3-8 w/ Briskett)
@Houston - WIN
@Cincinnati - LOSS
Baltimore - LOSS
NO Saints - WIN
@Washington - WIN
@Pittsburgh - LOSS (3-3 w/ Watson)

6-11 overall.

11-5

we got a squad i dunno why people are this down on the team. i get the watson nonsense is a drain but let's not act like this is a roster full of bums just because we have a backup QB the first 11 games.

It's a 17 game season Swish

12-5

The optimist adds 1 to the W, the pessimist adds 1 to the L.

Love it.

Swish, what kind of odds can I get on the under 12 games? I'd take a big chunk of that action. Seriously, I just want to see how optimistic you really are. I agree it's possible, but not probable with a backup QB for eleven games. And if winning football games was based solely on the talent a team has, we should have been killing in the last 3-4 years like clockwork, but some how reality keeps getting in our way.

I don't think he's foolish enough to put odds on an unlikely dream.

It's nice to be optimistic. I hate to be negative although I am at times. I'd like to think of myself as a realist and what I see right now with my beloved Browns does not equate to a 10–11-win season. I could be wrong and hope I am. We'll start to see how things are in 6 days.

I certainly understand optimism. And I certainly don't object to people looking at things that way. Often times it gets labeled as being a "Homer" and people often see that phrase in a negative light. I actually don't. There's nothing wrong with people searching for every possible positive thing about their team while blissfully ignoring the obvious questions and negatives. At one point in time I looked at it much the same way. But over the decades, at least from my experience, all it seemed to do was set me up for disappointment.

Brissett has started in the NFL before. For me there's nothing there that would lead me to conclude he can lead a team in the AFC North to 10 wins or more. Sure I know people are saying "Yeah but he was starting for different teams". That's true. But that isn't going to change his skill set or arm strength. And the Browns opponents know that. For all of the things the Browns can use with Brissett, every team they will be playing is fully aware of what Brissett can and can not do. It's not some great secret they won't be ready for.

Being a realist isn't always a bed of roses. But I look at it this way. If I look at things from a realistic standpoint I'm never disappointed if the results play out as expected. While if I'm wrong I'm always pleasantly surprised. It just seems to work better for me than the other way around. But to each their own.

We can tell by your posts.

Great comeback response. Where do you ever come up with such witty banter?

The bad ju-ju the Browns seem to be soaking in this off season could either lead to a team in a funk all season or a team that quietly puts together a decent season while no one is looking. Much rides on the defense. Also, Brissett could game-manage himself into a pretty good spot by the time Watson comes back. I could see them being 6-5 on defense and possession football alone. I wouldn’t be surprised if Watson also ends up near .500. He’s bound to be rusty and every defensive player wants Watson for his trophy wall. Everyone besides browns fans wants him to fail spectacularly and lots of players are going to be extra juiced to knock the tar out of him. It would not surprise me one bit if he actually looks worse than Brissett and people are questioning.

All that aside, we have what looks to me to be one of the easiest schedules in recent years. One reason I like Stefanski is he’s super steady, super professional and just not terribly emotional. I think that helps a team when they’ve had as much self induced chaos as we’ve had this year. If the team settles down quickly and stays focused, the bad ju-ju can dissipate and if they can get to 2-1 in the first 3 games, I could see this team in the wildcard conversation at the end. I’m still very ambivalent about this team right now and I’m not going out of my way to watch them but I know there’s a lot of good players besides Watson. It just depends on how they show up.

9-8

I feel 11-12 wins.

I don't like being a fan of a team and think negative thoughts about them. Especially by not judging by watching a preseason !

I want to be a fan and believe the team I root for can be good to very good !

I don't look back at the past, only now.

And right now I hope for 11-12 wins.

As of now the Browns are 0-0. Nothing to be negative about.

You do realize you're a fan of the Cleveland Browns, right?? One of, if not the, worst run professional sports franchises ever.

Right??

Beginning of the season polls:

https://www.dawgtalkers.net/ubbthreads.php/topics/1967254#Post1967254

If that is your true belief why bother?

No offense really. But if you dislike everything about the team and feel they will suck. Why trouble yourself?

Lots of things out there to spend time on. If the hot iron burns don't touch it.

Don't come at me like I'm an idiot !

That [censored] doesn't fly with me !

I go to games and support this team and most importantly don't attack another Browns fan !

As I see your posting that you're not happy with a worse franchise ever.

your posting on this board why ?

Because you realize what ? and like what ?

You have an opinion on the team and organization and that's all cool...

asking me if I realize if I'm a fan is NOT !!

A bed of roses.. OUCH !!!

Roses have way too many thorns for my butt to be laying on ! LOL !

Nice thread by the way !

CBS has us at 6-11 for this coming season. ESPN has the under on 8.5 wins.

I am sad to say that I think this will be the case.

The same idiots who said the Browns were winning the SB in 2021

The media is a joke ...Don't fall for BS !!!

They know more or less than you or I.

Just making a lil money of their nonsense !!

The Media is the devil ! Why do you let the devil in ?

Maybe change your sig.

Some of us will be right with our predictions and some will be wrong. We start to get an idea next Sunday.

Maybe I'm outta line saying this, but I kinda got the feeling that we're putting predictions out there based on an incomplete or poor understanding of what Brissett is going to bring to the table. I'm going to try to look into it and see what I can see.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrisJa00.htm
JB was a backup in NE in 2016. 2017, he was the starter for Indy. IIRC, this was because Luck retired like 5 minutes before week1 that season. His stats for that year are
276 completions for a hair over 3k yards @ just under 60% comp%
13TD : 7int and took 52 sacks (!) for a 81.7 rating

Does that jive with the idea that JB has maybe less arm talent but takes less sacks and has less turnovers than BM? I'm not sure if you are thinking JB is better or worse than people imagine?

With the running game as good as it is - I don't think JB will have the game on his shoulders, very much game management and executing a deep throw once the D has been set up to bite on play action.

Sonnofa biscuit!

Cursor got itchy and I hit submit too early. Went to edit and it timed out, so I lost a long post. I'll try again.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrisJa00.htm
JB was a backup in NE in 2016. 2017, he was the starter for Indy. IIRC, this was because Luck retired like 5 minutes before week1 that season. His stats for that year are
276 completions for a hair over 3k yards @ just under 60% comp%
13TD : 7int and took 52 sacks (!) for a 81.7 rating

IMO, this points to his line. It was rated 25th in the league, and the story was that Luck (who again, had just retired) was banged up from having nobody blocking for him and nobody catching for him. His RB was Frank Gore, who was 12th in the NFL for total yards.

He apparently lost the starting gig in 2018, but got it back in 2019, which seems odd.

In 2019, his total attempts went down, as did his total yards (just under 3k). His completion percentage did bump up just above 60%, though. He threw 5 more TDs and 1 less pick, but took almost half the amount of sacks. His Oline was ranked 3rd that year, and his RB was Marlon Mack who was 11th in the league in total yards.


So what does that mean?
IMO...

JB will take care of the ball. So long as the Oline does its thing, he won't take a ton of sacks. He does a good job of not throwing picks regardless if he's running for his life or not. He's not going to be slinging the ball around throwing a ton of TDs, though.
His stats are an easy comparison to injured-Baker. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MayfBa00.htm

Similar enough yardage, similar TDs. Less picks and should have way less sacks. He's credited with 2 comebacks and 3 GW drives. Baker is 6 and 7, accordingly.

JB isn't going to win us games, but he's not going to lose them either. We should be ok with him in there, unless we start chucking the ball all over the field, for whatever reason.

Luck was injured for all of 2017 (Shoulder), and return for 2018 before retiring

Informative post.

Just a couple corrections:

On September 2, 2017, Brissett was traded to the Indianapolis Colts for wide receiver Phillip Dorsett; the Colts had needed another quarterback after Andrew Luck suffered an injury. On September 10, 2017, Brissett made his debut with the Colts, relieving starting quarterback Scott Tolzien in the fourth quarter, and completed 2-of-3 passes for 51 yards as the Colts lost to the Los Angeles Rams 46–9. The following week, he earned his first start with the Colts and threw for 216 yards against the Arizona Cardinals. After a 13–13 tie in regulation, Brissett threw an interception to Tyrann Mathieu in the first play of overtime, leading to an Arizona Cardinals 16–13 victory.

Brissett was set to be the Colts' backup quarterback heading into the 2019 season. However, on August 24, 2019, two weeks before the start of the 2019 regular season, Andrew Luck abruptly announced his retirement. Colts general manager Chris Ballard confirmed in a subsequent press conference that Brissett would be the full-time starting quarterback going into the season. On September 2, 2019, Brissett signed a two-year, $30 million contract with the Colts, with $20 million guaranteed, a contract he again negotiated himself because he doesn't "like people to BS on his behalf." He was previously in the final year of his rookie contract and was set to make $2 million for the season.

Quoting oober: In 2019, his total attempts went down, as did his total yards (just under 3k). His completion percentage did bump up just above 60%, though. He threw 5 more TDs and 1 less pick, but took almost half the amount of sacks. His Oline was ranked 3rd that year, and his RB was Marlon Mack who was 11th in the league in total yards.

In 2017, Brissett took over a 2016 Colts team that was 8-8 and led them to a 4-12 record in 2017.

In 2019, Brissett took over a 2018 Colts team that was 10-6 and fresh off a 1-1 playoff record and led them to a 7-9 record in 2019.

To be looking at the correct numbers for Brissett:

2016 (2 starts)_______34/55__61.8% ____0 TD's 0 INT's___3 Fumbles__ 1 lost ____ 6 sacks__46 yards lost
2017 (15 Starts)____276/469_ 58.8%____13 TD's 7 INT's___8 Fumbles___3 lost____52 sacks_305 yards lost
2018 ( 0 Starts)
2019 (15 Starts)____272/447_60.8%____18 TD's 6 INT's___7 Fumbles___5 lost_____27 sacks_159 yards lost
2020 ( 0 starts)
2021 ( 5 starts)____141/225_ 62.7%_____5 TD's 4 INT's___6 Fumbles___3 lost_____19 sacks__32 yards lost

Just to correct some false statements being thrown about on this forum:

Brissett for his career (37 starts) has been sacked 106 times for 657 yards lost which is an 8.1% sack rate.
Mayfield for his career (59 starts) has been sacked 134 times for 889 yards lost which is an 6.5% sack rate.
Brissett taking less sacks than Mayfield is a lie.

Brissett for his career (37 starts) has thrown 36 TD's on 1208 attempts for a TD rate of 3.0%.
Mayfield for his career (59 starts) has thrown 92 TD's on 1924 attempts for a TD rate of 4.8%.
Similarity in passing TD's is a lie.

Brissett for his career (37 starts) has fumbled the ball 24 times losing 12. When based on pass attempts (1208), that's a 2.0% fumble rate with a 1.0% lost rate.
Mayfield for his career (59 starts) has fumbled the ball 27 times losing 12. When based on pass attempts (1924), that's a 1.4% fumble rate with a .6 lost rate.
Brissett taking care of the ball in regards to fumbles is a lie.

Brissett has thrown 17 INT's in his career starts. That's an INT rate based on attempts of 1.4%.
Mayfield has thrown 56 INT's in his career starts. That's an INT rate based on attempts of 2.9%.
This statement is true that Brissett will take better care of the ball when throwing. History shows there would be 1.5% less INT's for 1.8% less passing TD's with Brissett at the helm.

Other areas of note:
Brissett completion pct.: 727/1208 60.2%
Mayfield completion pct.: 1185/1924 61.6%

Starting Record Regular season:
Brissett 14-23 .378
Mayfield 29-30 .492

Career QB Rating:
Brissett 83.0
Mayfield 87.8

Easy there, Turbo.

This is a 2022 prediction thread. I'm trying to figure out what we should expect from JB this year. My comparison to BM was simply because he was the QB last year. I specifically said I was comparing to "injured-Baker" (as in last year). I'm doing that to try to sorta highlight differences to estimate what we're going to get from him. To be transparent, my overall expectation is that we do at least as well as we did last year... and to be clear, I think that will have more to do with the health of the Oline and how our WR room shakes out vs how Jacoby does. I'm not comparing Baker the QB to Jacoby the QB. Baker is much much better and his career #s, as you pointed out, can prove that.

That said, I do think JB should be fine operating this offense so long as he doesn't have to shoulder too much of the load. If he can make easy completions and hit on just enough shots downfield to keep defenses honest, then our offense should be fine.

Similarly, comparing a season with Luck starting vs a season with Jacoby starting is silly. Luck is/was (obviously) the better QB.


I also got my Luck timeline mixed up, so thank you for pointing that out.

Sorry if there was a misunderstanding. I didn't want it to be a focus on Mayfield either. However, when post after post dictates that Brissett won't take the sacks or that he takes care of the ball better, that is simply not the truth. Unfortunately, if the comparison is going to be made then you have to take off the rose-colored glasses and look at what Brissett is bringing to the table based on the only thing we can and that's his past history. Example, to say that he's in better shape due to our o-line when he played 2 seasons behind the #3 Indy line is a stretch at best. I too have a question about our o-line because we are at a 3rd level center after last year, Conklin is a freaking huge question and Wills PFF rating and performance (according to Vers chart) has been at the replace or backup level since entering the league. That is not the top o-line in the NFL even with the best guard tandem in the NFL. So, the questions I have are much like yours. If our o-line slips with the questions at WR, can Brissett carry this team? If everything is perfect, maybe. With the questions that need to be answered, very questionable.