DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Expectations for Jacoby

i think putting him in the same position that Reich put him in with the Colts is the most ideal. obviously there's gonna be a point where Jacoby is gonna be forced to make throws to keep pace with an opposing offense, and there's no way to avoid that. but we need to reduce the chances of that happening as much as possible by being as dynamic in the run game as possible.

I think Stefanski will be able to get the most out of Jacoby, as he's really the kind of QB that benefits the most out of our offensive scheme. Jacoby isn't a bum, and he has the arm strength to make most of the throws, especially the routine ones. however, we REALLY need to see an increase of Chubb and Hunt on the field together in order to keep Jacoby as confident as possible.

the 1st 11 games need to be TE heavy, which means we need Njoku and Bryant to really step it up this year. Jacoby can thrive in a methodical style offense such as ours, so i expect a lot of passes behind the LoS, maybe 5-7 yards down field.

Not much in terms of expectations for me. He’s not good at really anything. I think he’ll protect the ball decently, but we won’t make big plays in the passing game.

He’s going to have a very low ceiling.

Expectations........ none.

And that's not a good or bad thing.

Got to see him play one game in a Browns uniform first.

I guess I'll have expectations for him after this Sunday.

I tried to break down what I saw from his stats from the 2 years he was the starter in Indy in another prediction thread. Here are the takeaways I had.

He took a ton of sacks the first year he ended up being the starter (when Luck was hurt), but then cut that sack total almost in half the second year he started (when Luck retired). I looked at the Oline and they were ranked 25th that first year and 3rd the other year.

His INT totals were consistent and fairly low for those 2 years. His stat line does NOT describe a QB that makes many aggressive/careless throws. His TD totals for both years aren't anything to write home about, and were somewhat consistent.

His total yardage, completion%, and overall rating were all pretty 'meh'. His stat line gave me a very "could be better, could be worse" feeling. I think as long as he isn't being tasked with chucking the ball all over the field then we should be fine.

I agree. I'm expecting a lot of short throws, balanced offense that tries to eat clock to keep scoring low knowing the offense (w/ Brissett) is not capable of shootouts. The offense will likely average around 17ppg.

From Nate Silver's the FiveThirtyEight...

Jacoby can make throws with a lead. That's the key.
When he will be forced to make up deficits is when
Things will go south for the offense

I think what he could be is what Baker did best when he played well. A game manager that spreads the ball around in the short to intermediate passing game. When Baker got in trouble it was when he thought he was Brett Farve and tried to push the ball down field and turned the ball over. I think Brissett will move the chains with short and intermediate throws. Allow the run game and ball control offense dictate tempo and control the game. When he does take shots down field they will be called from the sideline in the play action pass. He will simply take what the defense gives him. I think we will see stat lines like 21-33 for 200 yards. 2 TD's and 1 Int per game. After 11 games just over 2,000 yards passing with 20 TD's to 9 INT's.

He’s going to be terrible because he’s terrible.

They have us favored in 4 games all season. And one of them is the Ravens at almost split odds.

Ugh

I expect that the plan will be to not ask too much of him; only that he make the plays that are there and not try to create or force anything and rely on the defense to hold the other offense in check.

In that light, I expect a pretty pedestrian ball-control offense that relies on setting up play-action pass with the run. Lots of TE utilization.

Waiting for the QBs I would rather have list from you.

My expectations for the team are about the same as they were at the end of last year. The AFC is loaded w/excellent qbs. Several AFC teams got stronger during the off-season. I feel that you aren't going to be a legitimate contender w/out a top-tier qb. I was very excited when we signed Watson because I thought he would make us legitimate Super Bowl contenders. That excitement is now gone.

I think JB will not take as many needless sacks and thrower fewer dumb interceptions, but that he won't make as many plus plays as Baker. Those are just opinions.

I am not as down on the team as many are because we are well-coached and have a good roster. I think we will have a record similar to last year due to less than average qb play. I also think the roster might be a bit weaker this year, especially at center.

Brisset has never averaged 2 TD passes a game every in his career
Couple that with a WR core with guys like DPJ and Schwartz
Who are not end zone terrors by any means
I don't see Jacoby throwing 33 passes a game unless
The Browns are rallying in the 4th

The biggest issue I have with Brissett and to a larger extent Stefanski is what do the Browns do if they fall quickly behind by 10-14 points? The offensive scheme is not built to play from behind as evident by the poor investment in the WR group and a TE that after 5-years we are still talking potential. Any game the Browns go down by 10-14 will eliminate the whole basis of the offense of running Chubb and Hunt. Eight of the Browns games have opponents that based on last year's average can be expected to score 26 points per game (2021 scoring average of the teams divided by 8).

So, as we enter the 2022 season, I asked myself, "are the Browns better on offense right now than they were in at the start of 2021?

Offensive line - NO - questions about Conklin's health, a new 3rd choice at center, and the lack of significant growth by Wills
Running Back - Same - could be argued a little better with Ford but we'll have to see how he's used
WR's - NO - does anyone actually think the Browns are better at WR than at the start of 2021?
TE's - NO - traded Hooper for what turns out to be a Jesse James replacement and now in year 6 of waiting for Njoku to play up to his potential. Thanks to the heavens that we have Bryant.
QB - NO - it's shameful that Brissett's hoped for performance expectations is to be as good without some of the turnovers as a multi injured QB the previous season.

Of course, that's just MHO, but I think the Browns need to improve their team scoring by at least 5 PPG to get anywhere near 7-10, 8-9, or 9-8 this season. I hope they prove me wrong but as it stands, I just don't see it happening.

I have no clue where you got this from.....


In the last season he was healthy, 2020 he ranked the 6th most accurate long ball passer in the NFL. I certainly agree that Baker isn't a top 10 QB, but why people feel some need to make up BS is something I just can't figure out.


I expect Brissett to attempt to do what he is capable of. Which is ball control O with short passes and a strong run game. I expect all Browns opponents know this and will be prepared to game plan for it making it much more difficult for Brissett to accomplish. People seem to act as though we are the only people that know what Brissett's limitations are but they are well documented. Every NFL team knows it too. They're not just going to lay down and not prepare for it.

Edit to add; This doesn't mean the Browns can't be successful. What it means is there is really no deep ball threat. There will be no need for opponents to keep safties deep. Instead what it boils down to is that those safties can play tight and help to normalize the Browns obvious and only game plan. It's like flashing a sign saying, "You know what we are going to do so try and stop us." Sure you can still win games. But it's never a positive when everyone knows what you are going to do because it's the only choice you have.

It's amazing that people don't think that interceptions and sacks are wildly important. It's also amazing that they don't think having the worst 4th quarter QBR is significant. Then, they use words like "shameful" to address the opinion of others.

QBs I’d rather have than Brissett:

Allen
Tua
Lamar
Burrow
Tannehill
Lawrence
Ryan
Wilson
Mahomes
Herbert
Carr
Prescott
Jones
Hurts
Mariota
Brady
Winston
Mayfield
Rodgers
Cousins
Fields
Stafford
Murray
Lance

I noticed you don't have Garrapolo on that list and (with the exception of not moving on from Mayfield) he would've been the only starter-caliber QB available.

I would have put Watson on the list. And I would have chosen him above all but maybe 3-8 qbs. We have him long term.

Considering Brissett doesn't throw downfield, you'd hope he'd have less INT's. The sack BS you keep posting is a flat out lie.

Brissett for his career (37 starts) has been sacked 106 times for 657 yards lost which is an 8.1% sack rate.
Mayfield for his career (59 starts) has been sacked 134 times for 889 yards lost which is an 6.5% sack rate.
Brissett taking less sacks than Mayfield is a lie.

Add to that FACT, since Brissett isn't throwing downfield, he's taking those sacks when the play is a short throw or safety valve toss. I have no issue with anyone stating their opinion but outright lies is where I draw the line.

I am not lying about anything. I gave my opinion. I factor in things like time to throw, crumbling in a clean pocket, and abandoning a pocket before one has to.

How about we both give our opinions w/out all the fighting? Baker is gone.

Vers, when you say that Brissett won't take the sacks the previous QB did, but his stats prove the differ then it's not an opinion, it's a lie when you continue to post that crap knowing it's false. Anybody can make a mistake and post something wrong. Refusing to recognize you're wrong is totally different. If you're going to continue your war against a QB that is gone that you campaigned for 4-years to get rid of by spewing false facts, that is shameful.

The sad part is that if a healthy Baker was still on the team the Browns would be considered a playoff contender. With Brissett at the helm, the so-called experts are predicting 6 wins at best. That's not my opinion, those are facts that cannot be rebuked. You can stay on your crusade of slamming the guy no longer with the team but if you have to use lies to stress your point it is shameful, no two ways about it.

I am not lying about a thing. But, I guess you can't let it go. I'll let the rest of the board decide if they think I am a liar or not.

For the record, here is my initial post:

I also mentioned time to throw, crumbling in the pocket, and abandoning a pocket too early. This took about 5 seconds to find.





I don't think my opinion on the subject is out of line at all. Done!

I expect wins.

In order:

Aaron Rodgers
Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Justin Herbert
Joe Burrow
Lamar Jackson
Dak Prescott
Kyler Murray
Matthew Stafford
Russell Wilson
Tom Brady
Derek Carr
Kirk Cousins
Jalen Hurts
Matt Ryan
Ryan Tannehill
Trevor Lawrence
Jimmy Garoppolo
Trey Lance
Marcus Mariota
Baker Mayfield
Jared Goff
Jameis Winston
Davis Mills
Mac Jones
Josh Fields
Tua [I don’t want to look up how to spell his last name]
Carson Wentz
Tyler Huntley
Mitch Trubisky
Daniel Jones
Gardner Minshew
Teddy Bridgewater
Andy Dalton
Zach Wilson

(This was off the top of my head. Sorry if I forgot anyone. I didn’t include rookies, if I did Malik Willis would have been first.)

That's a whole lot of QB's that you are saying you'd take instead of Brissett. That's every starter in the NFL except for Seattle's and of course Cleveland's (since it's Brissett) plus 5 backups. That doesn't bode well for the Browns.

The sad thing is I feel like this Browns roster - with the addition of a first round pick this year - could go DEEP into the playoffs with anyone on the list of 16 QB's I have left in tact above. I think - if the Browns stayed as healthy as the Bengals last year, they would have a shot of a place in the S.B with anyone off this list. We have enough talent to win without a top 5 QB, especially if you add a top flight WR from this years draft. I believe it might be a struggle with Jacoby .... but that's why we play the games, I might be 100% wrong with my low expectations of JB.

Yep. The Brown's fortunes hinge on crfs' qb ratings.

As per usual.

You are still kind of new here. My QB rankings are definitive and not up for debate.

Yes, that’s a lot of QBs. Brissett is bad.

Don't agree. Valuing the ball is HUGE. JB values the ball- big asset. He's NEVER played with a line as POTENTIALLY as good as ours. His stats could be very good. Downside, the weather forecast is for RAIN- not good for any team. Game could EASILY be decided on turnovers. Hope we hold on best in ugly conditions....GO Browns!!!

Did I miss something, I was not debating your list. If anything, I'm not sure he's even a top 10 backup.