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#1984851 11/09/22 12:29 AM
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Their QB has been very good, but he’s had concussions so a pass rush might intimidate him into mistakes. we need to get after him and make him antsy. MG
!!!!

On offence we should just keep running it, use play action, look for Coop. I hope Teller and NJoku play. It’s a must-win, boys, empty the tank.


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lampdogg #1984887 11/09/22 07:54 AM
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We can win the game. Just play solid D and keep the O rolling.


If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.

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lampdogg #1984894 11/09/22 08:27 AM
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It’s all about limiting the two WRs. They have a dynamic that’s really tough: SPEED. They are both burners and Tua gets it out fast. I’m interested to see how we attempt to cover them


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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Hopefully, they will open the GameDay forum today. It usually shows up on Tuesdays. I'll add to your thread if/when they move it and I won't start a Matchup thread. I'll just put those thoughts on this one.

lampdogg #1984972 11/09/22 01:14 PM
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This is a winnable game, but it is just as easily a losable game.

Good thing is, we are seeing a little cooling and lower humidity this week, so that should not be an issue in this game.


We don't have to agree with each other, to respect each others opinion.
lampdogg #1984987 11/09/22 02:03 PM
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I think this is a very tough match-up for us. I believe the 'Phins are undefeated w/Tua playing the entire game. I think they also have the most efficient passing game in the league. The WRs are the fastest set in the NFL and their TE is also very good. We are coming off the bye week, so that should help some. Miami had the league's worst OL last year. Armstead was a huge get at LT this offseason. I think they are ranked around 22nd this year.

Key Matchups:

Browns Run Game Against Miami's Run Defense:

The Dolphin run defense has been in the top 10 this year, although they did give up 178 yards to Justin Fields last week. We don't have Fields at qb. Nevertheless, our running game is strong. Strength against strength here. We have to run to keep them honest, but I don't think we are going to run it down their throats.

Dolphins Run Game vs Browns Run Defense:

Miami has not run the ball well this year. They traded for Jeff Wilson right before the trade deadline. He joins fellow former 49er Mostert under the former OC of the 49ers, who is now the HC in Miami. Both backs are fast and can take it the distance. Miami's OL is shaky, though. Then again, so is our run defense.

Browns Passing Game vs Miami's Pass Defense:

Unlike their run D, Miami's pass D has been bad. Meanwhile, the Browns passing game has been very good. Brissett is a top 10 qb in many of the most important passing metrics. Hopefully, Njoku returns and takes some of the heat off of Cooper. I think we can exploit them through the air.

Miami's Pass Offense vs Cleveland's Pass Defense:

Miami probably has the best passing game in the league right now. Tua is playing excellent football. Hill and Waddle are game breakers. So much speed. Geisiki is a very good TE when called upon. Both Mostert and Wilson can catch the ball. Wilson had a TD reception last week. The Browns pass defense has improved since a bad start. Our corners are pretty good. However, Delpit is a real liability in pass coverage. We better play a ton of zone against them. Too much speed to use man coverages.

Special Teams:

I don't know enough about their units to form an intelligent opinion.

At the End of the Day:

I think we are good enough to beat them. I believe we are better than our record. I also believe their O is real while their D is a big question mark. At the end of the day, the fact that they are at home and have such a dynamic passing game gives them an edge that is probably too much to overcome.

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Good analysis, Vers.

We can beat them, but we will need to put together a complete game to do so. Miami is too good on offense for us to be able to recover from multiple mistakes. Pressure on Tua is a must. That is when he can make mistakes, trying to do too much.


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Earlier, I said we should play a lot of zone instead of man against Miami. I still feel that way, but I decided to check Tua's numbers vs mand and zone.

Completion %:
Man: 67.5
Zone: 73.4

Passer Rating:
Man: 127
Zone: 118.3

Accuracy Rating:
Man: 8
Zone: 8.4

Not a big discrepancy in any of those categories. I wish I could have saw his yards per attempt, sack rate, and Expected Completion percentage in both Man and Zone. That would paint a clearer picture.

One thing I did notice, is that is deep passer rating is really high. Having those two jets at WR helps that, but either way it presents a problem for our defense. Really worried about our Safety play in this game.

lampdogg #1985022 11/09/22 03:54 PM
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Tua is going to light us up!

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Interesting. You must have read the same article I did this morning. At 9 a.m.

lampdogg #1985051 11/09/22 07:19 PM
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Tua is leading the league in:

QB rating (115.9)
QBR (80.2)
TD percentage (6.9)
Third down QB rating (147 - highest since 1991)
Yards per attempt (9.2)
Net yards per play (8.5)


He's also pushing the ball down the field more efficiently than ever. Going into last Sunday's game, he had twice as many completions (32) to the middle of the field, over 10 air yards, as any other quarterback in the league.

At the PC yesterday, Stefanski said we need to "follow our rules" on defense. I hope that doesn't equate to a vanilla approach in hopes of merely limiting the damage he can do. If we can't create pressure, we're likely in for a long afternoon... If we can't get them off the field on 3rd down (see above), we're likely in for a long afternoon.

They have a tough run defense, and will likely stuff the box to dare us early on... Brissett will need to rise to the occasion again.


HERE WE GO BROWNIES! HERE WE GO!!
FATE #1985058 11/09/22 07:51 PM
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They are a passing offense not unlike the Bengals.

They use a lot shifts and motion. They scheme open and have the receivers.

Pressure is important as always.

The defense the Browns used against the Bengals where they were looping tackles and ends along with delays will be used again.

In addition we gave a lot of blitz looks pre-snap. We have used boundary corners both in press and off man. Mid-field we have been in zones.

I could see us using Ward in off man on Hill. Newsome on Waddle. Safety play will be important. I expect heavy use of nickle and dime.

The issue for them is Myles. He caused major problems for the Bengals. He forced many early throws underneath.

Our game plan IMO will not be much different than the Bengal game. Throw early. Run later. Apply pressure. Work for turnovers.

This could easily be a field goal deciding game. The lower the score the better our chances.


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lampdogg #1985068 11/09/22 09:35 PM
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I noticed while watching Miami a few times: they love to have Tua hit the backside WR on a quick drop. Like three step, hit a slant on the backside. You gotta make him hesitate and not rely on his timing IMO


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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I see very little hope of beating miami, they are going to shred this secondary, our only hope is to get the run game going and keep it low scoring, grind it out type


Tomorrow is the most important thing in life. Comes into us at midnight very clean. It's perfect when it arrives and it puts itself in our hands. It hopes we've learned something from yesterday. -John Wayne
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Originally Posted by leadtheway
I see very little hope of beating miami, they are going to shred this secondary, our only hope is to get the run game going and keep it low scoring, grind it out type

And we will win because this is one we should lose.


Your feelings and opinions do not add up to facts.
Ballpeen #1985092 11/10/22 12:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Ballpeen
We can win the game. Just play solid D and keep the O rolling.


We CAN win... but it's unlikely... hope we play well but I'm expecting to lose this weekend


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The Browns defense will need to continue to improve and play their best game of the year against the fish, especially the Browns defensive backfield.

The pass rush and blitz packages have to keep the pressure on Tua.

The Browns offense needs take control of the line of scrimmage cash in on those trips to the red zone.

Time to feed the dawgs... thumbsup





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jaybird #1985103 11/10/22 07:43 AM
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Originally Posted by jaybird
Originally Posted by Ballpeen
We can win the game. Just play solid D and keep the O rolling.


We CAN win... but it's unlikely... hope we play well but I'm expecting to lose this weekend

If this is true, the Browns won't win another game this season. This is one of the easier games left.

A lot will depend on what Sterfanski did the last two weeks. Did he spend his time getting the waffle house menu laminated while reviewing "analytics" or did he spend the extra time devising a game plan, effectively communicating it to his staff and players and actually practicing it? I'm guessing the former. If it was the latter his players have to actually want to play for him and play like they care. That's happened once this season in the last game against a team who's number we seem to have.

With Buffalo next week the wheels will fall off if we lose this game. The season will essentially be over and the team will be staring at 3-14. We will then have people come on here and claim Stefanski is a good head coach because he has good run schemes.

And let me remind people that Stefanski isn't coaching against Reid, Belichek, McVay, Carrol, McDermott, Vrabel. He's coaching against some dude named Mike McDaniels in his first year who might be a bigger nerd than Stefanski. And we have people on here fully conceding and expecting a loss.

It doesn't seem to me that we are in good hands, and no one seems to believe we are.

Rishuz #1985104 11/10/22 07:59 AM
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Nerds rule.

Every coach begins somewhere.

Nine games to play. One game this year that we got trashed. And we won't win another game?

Must be fun sitting and watching games with you. We suck. Stefanski sucks. We will Always suck.


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The Browns don't make watching football very fun. Are you enjoying this season? Do you enjoy watching them play? Do you enjoy watching guys run free in the secondary while the other team plays pitch and catch?

You had the same tune with Baker last year. No matter what evidence there was provided on the field you assured the rest of us that Baker was fine and his best days were ahead of him and that some were being overly critical. Now you're doing it with Stefanski evidence be damned.

I'm all for giving him time to figure it out, but to claim he's a good head coach is absurd. The reasons laid out in support of Stefanski are absurd. He did good during a year where there were no fans in the stands is actually used to support him being a good head coach. Maybe we can petition the league to keep fans out of Browns games.

He's a 3-5 coach on a team with 5 players in the top 100. The job he's done this year to date is abysmal. He's wasted yet another season.

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I am enjoying the season.

We are different.

I never said Baker was anything. I just said he was not terrible.

We have a good team. There are guys on the team I really like.

I believe the future looks good.

I think Stefanski is a good coach and will get better.

You are welcome to believe we suck and Stefanski stinks. And we will lose Sunday and probably not win another game.

Hope you can find something to like.

lampdogg #1985107 11/10/22 08:41 AM
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The Cincy game was fun (obviously we won) because it appeared that our defense was urgent and together. It seemed like we cared to win.

Other games have not been fun at all for the opposite reasons


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
Rishuz #1985112 11/10/22 09:18 AM
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If this is true, the Browns won't win another game this season. This is one of the easier games left.

What an absurd statement. Right now, I fear Miami more than any team on our schedule if Allen is indeed, hurt.

You are so focused on your agenda of trashing Stefanski and wallowing in self-pity that you have become delusional.

I still enjoy watching the Browns. I would not watch if they made me as miserable as they make you.

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Originally Posted by Dawgs4Life
The Cincy game was fun (obviously we won) because it appeared that our defense was urgent and together. It seemed like we cared to win.

Other games have not been fun at all for the opposite reasons

We have cared in every game of the season. We fought hard in each game.

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Originally Posted by Rishuz
He's a 3-5 coach on a team with 5 players in the top 100. The job he's done this year to date is abysmal. He's wasted yet another season.

To me this is interesting - you probably don't want to discuss because you like to offer your opinion and that's the end of the discussion. BUT ... I was expecting 3-5 or there abouts, but I was expecting that based on QB play that was similar to last year. The reality is we have excellent QB play from Brissett. I think someone posted stats to suggest he was performing at a top 5 level? So - despite having good/great QB play we are still a losing football team having played and won 2 games against bad teams in the Panthers and Steelers. We know the defense has struggled and is the primary reason for our record - this after coming off a season where they were statistically very good. . . . . So to me, interesting that we are 2 games below .500 with elevated QB play which was supposed to be the weakness.

We've discussed the DT position before and it really can't be an accident that the DT's on the roster are who we have. That's who they wanted ... sure they might want more talent, but the size of player and their (limited) attributes are what the FO and coaches decided they needed for this scheme. That seems like a problem. So too is the repeat performance of the defense starting out the season flat. So too are players like Ward playing unbelievably badly.

The Miami game seems like a microcosm for the balance of the season - they are a better team than Tampa, Pittsburgh, Washington ... but it almost doesn't matter. If Stefanski and Woods have the defense playing "up" - then we can make win Sunday and make a play off push. If the defense splutters, takes a step back or repeats what it has done in other games early in the season then the season is toast.


The more things change the more they stay the same.
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Getting back to the spirit of the thread instead of yet another Trash Stefanski thread, I'll post this article. It's best to click on the links to see all the Efficiency Charts that support the text.


Quote
Browns vs. Dolphins: What do the numbers say about this matchup?


Cory Kinnan
November 8, 2022 12:08 pm ET

The Cleveland Browns are coming off of their bye week, getting healthy, and are ready to take on the Miami Dolphins. Looking to win two in a row and save their season, the Browns will take on the 6-3 Dolphins, who line up pretty evenly on paper. Long story short, the Browns vs. Dolphins should be a good one.

Offensively, both teams are scoring at rates near the top in the entire league, and defensively, they are both lagging in preventing them.


We take a look here at how these two teams, unit-by-unit, match up with one another ahead of Sunday’s showdown in this Browns vs. Dolphins game. The numbers used in this article come from Football Outsiders and RBSDM.com.

Browns vs. Dolphins


MIA rushing attack vs. CLE rushing defense
Browns vs. Dolphins


Miami’s rushing attack is not near the top in the league. In DVOA, the Dolphins’ rushing attack has been identified as the 21st most efficient threat in 2022. Alternating between Raheem Mostert and newly-acquired Jeff Wilson, the Dolphins have found some recent success, however.

Mostert falls 11th in DVOA this season, while Wilson is not far behind at 16th.

The good news for the Dolphins? The Browns’ run defense is absolutely abysmal. Only the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans have been scored out as a worse run-stopping unit than the one found in Cleveland. The Dolphins will do most of their damage through the air, but if there was a week to exploit a team on the ground, this would be it.

Advantage: Dolphins


CLE rushing attack against MIA rushing defense
Browns vs. Dolphins
Browns vs. Dolphins. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-USA TODAY Sports

While the Dolphins do not have a top-shelf run game, the Browns do. Led by the best back in the league Nick Chubb, currently second in the league in rushing, the Browns hand the football off to their running backs more than any team in the NFL. And they have found great success doing so.

Not only is Chubb second in rushing yards, but he also falls second in DVOA as well. Kareem Hunt is significantly less efficient this season, falling 25th by the same metric. As a team, only the Baltimore Ravens, led by Lamar Jackson, run the football at a more efficient clip than the Browns.

Browns vs. Dolphins


The Dolphins, however, are no slouches against the run either. Using the same efficiency metric, this Miami defense is a top-ten unit against the run, falling seventh. There are, however, other fringe top-ten units below the Dolphins who the Browns have been able to beat on the ground, including the New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cincinnati Bengals.

While the sledding might be a bit more difficult on the ground this Sunday for Chubb and the Browns, they still hold an advantage over the Dolphins on paper.

Advantage: Browns


MIA passing attack vs. CLE passing defense
Browns vs. Dolphins


Unfortunately for the Browns, no team throws the ball at a more lethal and efficient clip than the Dolphins. That is not a hyperbole.

Tua Tagovailoa is Football Outsider’s most efficient quarterback this season, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both fall top-five in DVOA, and even tight end Mike Gesicki falls top-10 in a down year at his position. This team is littered with lethal weapons, meaning the Cleveland secondary and second level needs to be on their A-game.

Browns vs. Dolphins


The good news for the Browns, however, is that their secondary has been playing at a high level over their past two outings against the Ravens and Bengals. Starting in the bottom of the league, the Browns’ defense now falls 18th against the pass in DVOA despite a tumultuous start to the season.

It is not an exaggeration, however, to say this is the toughest task they have yet to face, and may be the toughest they will face all season.

Advantage: Dolphins


CLE passing attack vs. MIA passing defense
Browns vs. Dolphins


While the Miami passing offense is at the top of the league, their passing defense is at the bottom. Only the Las Vegas Raiders have a less-efficient passing defense than the Dolphins do thus far in 2022.

This bodes well for a Browns offense that is a top-10 unit through the air as well. By just about any metric, backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett has been playing at a minimum of a top-10 quarterback this season for the Browns. He is ninth in DVOA, seventh in QBR, and ninth in EPA per play.

As the Dolphins are stout against the run and not so much against the pass, the Browns may find more success behind the arm of Brissett in this matchup. He has a top-five tight end in David Njoku who has proved to be a significant mismatch in 2022, and a true number-one threat in Amari Cooper, who is playing at a top-ten level this season.

The Browns are going to need to hit some darts over the middle and deep down the field to keep boxes light. And Brissett has proven more than capable of doing so when needed for the Browns this season.

Advantage: Browns


A glimpse at special teams
Browns vs. Dolphins


Believe it or not, the Miami Dolphins have the 32nd-ranked special teams unit in the league by Football Outsiders. The Browns are not world-beaters under Mike Priefer, falling 22nd in the same metric, but they enter this matchup with a significant advantage in the third phase of the game.

The Dolphins field a negative DVOA in every special teams unit, including a massive negative in their field goal department. The Browns are not much better, fielding their only positive DVOA on their kickoff unit, but the negatives are far less in the dirt than the Dolphins’ are.

All-in-all, neither of these teams is going to be hoping to put the game on the line and into the hands of a special teams unit.

Advantage: Browns


Final thoughts on Browns vs. Dolphins
Browns vs. Dolphins


Long story short, despite the imbalance in their records, this Browns vs. Dolphins matchup will be a close one. And more than likely a high-scoring one as the Dolphins field a lethal passing attack and the Browns field a pretty balanced offense themselves.

Neither defensive unit is going to blow the doors off of the stadium when they line up, leaving opportunities for points. It will also not be a great showing of what spectacular special teams looks like either as both of the units are sinking below the average plane.

Coming off of the bye week, can the Browns stack wins for the first time this season and get their season back on the rails? It will not be an easy one to come away with a win in, but the Browns will have at least a small margin for error to work with.

https://brownswire.usatoday.com/lists/browns-dolphins-numbers-breakdown-10-2020/

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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Originally Posted by Dawgs4Life
The Cincy game was fun (obviously we won) because it appeared that our defense was urgent and together. It seemed like we cared to win.

Other games have not been fun at all for the opposite reasons

We have cared in every game of the season. We fought hard in each game.
I’d go back and watch our effort against New England


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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The score would indicate you are correct. However, we scored a late TD to make it a one score game. We tried an onside kick and apparently recovered it. The officials ruled that AJ Green was out of bounds and touched the ball before Harrison secured the ball. We stopped them on a 3 and out and then we fumbled the punt which sealed the game. The late scoring made the final score look worse than it was.

To be clear, we played a bad game. But, we didn't give up. Furthermore, almost all of our games have been very close. This team has not quit. Not even close. I do wish we could concentrate on the upcoming game in this particular thread instead of yet another thread hijacked into a trashing Stefanski and the team thread. There are plenty of those threads around and if you notice, conversation is often stymied by the constant negativity in those threads.

lampdogg #1985123 11/10/22 10:46 AM
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FWIW: Hill and Waddle combined for 12 catches and 228 yds w/2 TDs last week. Tua threw for over 300 yds and 3 TDs for the second straight week. This offense is scary good.

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The NE game was a bad game. It happens. We were out coached.

Belichick beats others as well. He is a master of defensive game plans. He beat us badly two years in a row.

I was pissed. I thought we should have learned more from the year before and would have been better prepared.

I think every team will have games where they stunk. So, I tossed that game away. That was the only game we were out of.

We can beat the Dolphins. It will not be easy. It looks to be a close game and could be a game where a field goal wins it. It could go either way IMO.

I know they have a good run defense. It does not matter much. We will still run on them. Unless we get behind by a couple scores. That is not our game.

We have to stay close to win. They are a chunk play team. That can cut two ways. You can get into third and long which is harder to convert.

Our game is 5 yard runs on first down. Keep it at third and short and move the chains. Some games we will have to throw early to set that up for play action.

Njoku is a guy we need. I am beginning to get comfortable with Cooper, DPJ and Njoku. Jacoby has chemistry with them.

I see our game plan being similar to the Bengal game. Like that game we may need the turnovers to win.

Rishuz #1985132 11/10/22 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Rishuz
If this is true, the Browns won't win another game this season. This is one of the easier games left.

You say some crazy things and this certainly ranks in the top 10% of them.


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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lampdogg #1985133 11/10/22 11:35 AM
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I think the Bucs game is way easier than this one


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
Rishuz #1985156 11/10/22 02:21 PM
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"I'm all for giving him time to figure it out, but to claim he's a good head coach is absurd. The reasons laid out in support of Stefanski are absurd. He did good during a year where there were no fans in the stands is actually used to support him being a good head coach. Maybe we can petition the league to keep fans out of Browns games."

This post is absurd. That is what is absurd. You have a thing against him. Sure throw away 2020 because of Covid. That means Stefanski only won because the fans were not there. What? Really?

Recall if you will. Baker was the quarterback and we played games without damn near half the team. Let alone it was his first year. Going to camp with Covid. That sure made camp a cake walk. We won a playoff game on the road in 2020.

2021 Baker gets injured. Plays injured. Case plays. OBJ turns the locker room over. Horrible play from the quarterback position all year except the first two games. We were still in the playoff picture with two weeks to go.

2022 Jacoby is the starter for 11 games. Let's see the Packers and the Bucs have the same record as us and they each have a Hall of Fame quarterback.

Know what else is absurd. You thinking you know what will happen over the next nine games. You don't know what will happen this week or next week.

Because nobody knows what a team will look like week to week. How will the Bills look without Allen? What if Tua gets another concussion?

How will we play with Watson? What other injuries will occur in the next nine games to any team?

Don't try and play Mr. Predicter because it does not wear well on any face.


bonefish #1985158 11/10/22 02:32 PM
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Whether there are fans in the stands or not is a very absurd premise. And while it's true nobody "knows" what will happen there are odds that give people a clear indication. Currently the Browns have an 8% chance of making the first round of the playoffs.....

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nflpostseasonprob.html


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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bonefish #1985159 11/10/22 03:08 PM
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His takes on all things Browns is absurd. Always has been, always will be.

Just face it Bone, KS just does not "prioritize winning"...

Rishuz #1985160 11/10/22 03:22 PM
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All these personal attacks were the same ones I got last year when I gave my opinion on Baker.

How did that turn out?

Rishuz #1985162 11/10/22 03:30 PM
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So you consider someone believing that your premise is absurd as being a personal attack? Really? That's actually rather absurd as well. Not that such behavior is all that unusual these days.


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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PitDAWG #1985163 11/10/22 03:39 PM
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How about ...

All these colorful differences of opinion are similar to the ones I got last year when I gave my opinion on Baker.

How did that turn out?

Rishuz #1985166 11/10/22 03:54 PM
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So since you were right about Baker last year, what does that have to do with your opinion about Stefanski now? I'm still not sure what you think was posted that was so "colorful or personal" and I see that you chose not to specify on that part. Differences in opinions vary. People will always question differing opinions. And let's face it, claiming things like Stefanski can only perform without fans in the stands is a pretty flimsy argument that is certainly open to being dismissed.

I mean I have seen arguments against Stefanski where I can see why they think their points are valid. It makes at least some sense. And I'm not some huge Stefanski supporter. I see both sides but have not yet come to the conclusion that he should be fired. But come on man. You say something silly like his winning or losing is impacted on fans being in the stands or not and don't expect people to think that sounds pretty crazy? I mean, really?


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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