DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum The Watson Trade continued

Thanks for answering. I don't agree because I believe you need data and analysis before you can make predictions, but I respect your opinion.

More insults. Surprise.

Precisely. The only data and analysis we have right now is what DW did for the Browns. 2 years ago was 2 years ago.

What happened two years ago isn't data? And you can't analyze it?

Don't answer. I know what you will say. You are here to fight, just like your brother, Pit.

Oh my, if you think I even like pit, you're sadly mistaken.



Let's see what DW did THIS year, not 2 years ago. (or was it 3 years ago that he played?)

Say what you want about me, but dude, you've sunk your teeth into DW on HOPES. You made your bed, lay in it. What did he do for the Browns THIS year? Nothing, but trying to knock "rust" off. And now another off season, where he should knock some more rust off, right? Just like he had the opportunity last year to knock the rust off. If I'm guaranteeing 230 million to him, I need to see something. Well, since the money is already guaranteed, I guess it doesn't matter.

He gets his. At what cost?

I fully expect a much much improved DW next year. If not, he's a bust.

Well at least we can have a laugh - you're the king of insulting people and nobody's surprised by your hatred filled posts. It's your only answer to opinions based on facts.

One thing I have not noticed anybody post about is that Watson was not allowed to have a playbook during his suspension. The 11 weeks he was off, he had no access to a playbook. Pretty much washed out the rest of his season. Crossing my fingers that he is ready to hit the ground running next season.

You are correct, but that data needs to be concurrent, or else the analysis can be flawed. There is no real data to tell us what 2 years of non-play has done to his physical or mental traits that made him so good. Football players skillset, particularly the physical ones, tend to diminish with each year.

That is not even taking into account, different coaches, teams, players, schemes that all could have an affect on his results.

Don't get me wrong, I hope he gets back to form, but from what I saw in his limited playtime, I can't say with 100% certainty that he will. I saw some signs that the skills are still there, and I hope it was all the mental part that was holding him back. Limited time in the scheme, limited time with his receivers, off-field issues interfering with his ability to focus properly, and even his own anticipation and expectations. If he thought he was going to take that first snap and be a superstar, and then he struggled as he did, it could have messed with his confidence for those few games.

I appreciate the answer, but as someone who has coached the game, I can't accept that all these gifts just went "poof" into the night. I think there are a couple of posters on this board who write one negative post after another and some of our fans buy into what they are saying despite the poor record of those negative posters. That's fine. I'm done w/the conversation.

I don't think they went "poof" either. You seem to be interpreting what I wrote as he has no skill left, when I said exactly opposite that.

If he had just been rehabbing or something things might be different. But he went through 2 mentally exhaustive years, that still aren't over. The mind is a very powerful thing and everyone reacts to issues differently, and they affect people differently.

I hope what we saw was "rust", but like I said, I can't state with 100% confidence that there is not more to it, until he "proves" it.

Isn't that basically a thing in the NFL, "Last year is last year, show us this year."

Good post.

Your first part is a clear, even-keeled analysis of everything that happened... From the Stefanski tenure to all the reasons why the Watson deal went down. There is no doubt that the price tag clearly says our FO thinks Watson is elite, or at least 'elite enough' to remedy the fact that it is very hard to win the prize with subpar to average QB play.

Trying to forecast the timetable and trajectory of the payoff (if there is one) is very hard to do. I'm not going to try to predict how next year impacts the decision or contract implications. One reason is because we'll likely see that contract reworked before next season anyway. We'll wait 'til after Lamar is signed or tagged as it has a direct impact to what they pay him in both scenarios. I know it sounds silly, but we are archrivals and any 'edge' is good playing in the toughest division in football.

And that segues into my next point, concerning the "opinions will wildly vary" part.

"Any given Sunday" is on display every week in the NFL, so I won't make excuses for the New Orleans game. Watson didn't look good. I'm not going to pass judgment on Watson for the Bengals when they came out and boat raced us. Chubb had one of his worst career games, Hunt did no better, Mixon ran the ball down our throats. The Bengals were smack-dab in the middle of what is now a nine game winning streak. The Steelers were playing the best defense in the NFL. In their last eight games (since the return of Watt), no team scored more than 17 points.


Trying to put Watson under a microscope in an attempt to see what's different in his DNA, after six games, is futile. Everybody is filing all of this analysis under "rust", when really it's just a small sample size. A sample size of a QB with a new team, another QB's playbook, two years off, no rapport with his receivers. He's also a human; probably experiencing a shifting change in his personality, circle of friends, and dealing with grief and remorse. In a new city... and he hates the cold lol.

I'm gonna pass on any further discussion of the book entitled "Rust, Will He or Won't He Shake it Off?" TBH, I've already seen enough to know his skillset this season dwarfs any QB we've had on the team STR. He'll embark on a normal off-season cycle and start next year, for the first time in three years, on a normal NFL schedule. We'll craft an offense around his skillset. He'll continue to build relationships and a rapport with his teammates.

Will we go to the Super Bowl next year? I don't know. Will we bust and sit home for the playoffs? I don't know. Will Watson look like a bust of a deal? I seriously, seriously doubt it.

Only time will tell. In the meantime, it seems absurd for everyone to argue whether it can or can't happen.

This is always your standard answer when people have an opposing view or present facts and questions you simply refuse to address. You aren't fooling anyone.

And as much as some protest, an argument isn't what I was looking for. Actually your response was more what I was looking for and I appreciate it. I'm not trying to make any prediction either. I have no idea how this will all play out. I was predicating much of it based on what was actually posted by many on this board as it pertains to the "rust"part of it. That was a very common theme among posters before watson returned and I was simply wondering what they thought it about that now based on the six games they witnessed. Once again, thanks for the response.

I agree with most of what you have said but I do have a question. You said: "Once the DW came back the offense was in place. It is very hard eleven games into a season to change things and prepare for an opponent. DW is a different quarterback than Jacoby. He was playing for the first time in two years with a new team eleven games into a season."

Watson is an experienced NFL QB with 4-years of experience playing in the NFL. I realize that Watson didn't have live play for 700 days or so, but he did have the off-season last year and he had the preseason too. I guess my question is then, if Watson possesses all that NFL live experience, the off-season, and a preseason; how could he not be at least as equally prepared to play as a rookie QB that had even more limited exposure as in a Brock Purdy? Afterall, unlike Watson - Purdy had zero NFL live play experience. He had never had an NFL playbook before May 1, 2022 - more than 40-days later than when Watson received his playbook. Purdy didn't go to the Bahamas like where Watson treated the entire offense with a trip to work on team building and get some time working out together. Purdy sat as the #3 or #2 for 12 weeks not getting any snaps with the first team all those weeks of practice then was forced into playing with a new team 12 games into a season which was actually longer wait than Watson. Why the difference?

IMHO, Purdy may never start another game in the NFL after this season, that's a huge unknown. The upside for Watson, however, is undeniable as he's earned the projection of a top 5 elite QB but he still needs to prove that on the field. That said, I don't believe Watson showed us anything close to elite play in those 6 games and I find the constant barrage of excuses for Watson's less than expected performance over those last 6 games is ignoring that either Watson wasn't prepared to play, or the coaching staff wasn't prepared to have him playing. I mean really, as a fan that's been waiting forever for a winner, shouldn't we have expected more from a top 5 elite QB with 4-years NFL experience as a starter than seeing a rookie go undefeated and taken his team to the NFC Championship Game and totally outperform our 230M QB?

In business, when presented with a problem - you start asking why. You ask why at least 5 times because the answers will always start with cause excuses. By the time you get to the 5th why or so, you finally get past the excuses and will uncover the root cause that got you the problem in the first place. You can never fix the problem if you're continuing to deal with the excuses because the root cause is still there. With Watson, but more importantly the Browns, they spend a whole lot of time on why #1 and why #2 and never get to the root cause.

Anyway, nice post - I found it very informative.

Why #1 - The Browns drafted Baker Mayfield #1
Why #2 - There were 2 QB's taken after Mayfield that are far and away performing at a much higher level.
Why #3 - Baker Mayfield never played up to the potential of a 1st round draft pick much less the #1 overall pick.
Why #4 - The Bengals passed the Browns overnight while Mayfield was stuck in mediocrity.
Why #5 - Desperate the Browns seen and opportunity to acquire a QB that has performed to the level of elite he was just marred in a legal situation. Because of the Mayfield failure to give the team any chance to get back to the Bengals level they acquired a QB that they knew would have to work himself back into physical and mental game shape. Knowing this was a process they made the move because there was no hope in what they had!!!

To piggyback a bit: the data from two years ago is not relevant data for a current analysis. It is the baseline that people hope he can get back to; it doesn't factor into anything except to show how far he currently is from where he is expected to be.
There is only one dataset that pertains to any analysis of where he is and that is what he has done since being here; two years ago is simply referential data.

I really have no idea what your response has to do with Watson's progression but whatever.

So it's all Mayfield's fault.



As for your #5. Don't forget he sat out on his former team for an entire season and demanded a trade because he wasn't happy there. I notice you forgot to include that part.

No, it is John Dorsey's fault for wasting the #1 overall pick on Mayfield. Watson just went .500 with the Browns without his A game. The QB position has been upgraded. Now it is time to see what pieces they can fix around the QB.

watson just went .500 because in part the defense stepped up and held the opponents to very low scores. They held the ravens to 3 points and the Browns won by scoring only 13 points as an example. In four of watsons six starts the Browns scored 10 points against the Bengals, 13 points against the Ravens, 10 points against the Saints and 14 points against the Steelers. And it seems rather odd to me that you never mentioned the name Dorsey until your last reply.

So yes, watson went .500 in his starts. And it may help those who wish to feel better about by not looking at the actual production and impact of our offense in those games.

I mentioned Dorsey all the way back on draft night. I thought that pick was terrible then and I think it was terrible now. Baker set this team back 10 years and our FO took a chance, and it was the only 1 available option to give this team a chance in the near future. Watson was that option and I applaud them for taking the chance. He is easily the best QB we have had since Bernie, and I believe having him on the team is the only reason we have to be optimistic about next year.

I meant in this thread, not in Dawgtalker history. I see the jury as far from being in on how this plays out. If it works out the way you and some seem to think it will, applause will be deserved. I find it odd that someone would applaud someone taking a gamble if they lose the bet. Usually applause is based on success or a good performance. That is as of yet undetermined.

I'll agree that 2020 watson is the best QB we've had since Bernie. 2021 watson was a no show in Houston and 2022 watson wasn't even close. I think you may have to excuse those of us that are in a wait and see mode as what watson brings before we decide whether it deserves applause or not.

You must really like this post! (I've never seen this before?)

Me either!

So Watson going 3-3 down the stretch is important? It really isn’t. We’ll find out much more in 2023.

The strange 2022 season is gone, I actually thought DW showed what he can be as our quarterback. When D-Dub gets in sync with our overall offense he’s going to thrive.

And yeah, I call him D-Dub.

1 second in processing for a QB can be the difference in a Hall Of Famer, and career clipboard holder.

I really have no concerns that Watson will regain the form that made him a top 5 QB - even if he never gets back to top 5 based on the crazy rating systems out there that are quoted as gospel...but I digress.

I am much more worried about:

A disinterested, underachieving LT;

An oft-injured, very-good-when-healthy RT;

A Center position that either goes with a 'hope' or takes up some cap space to keep a good thing going;

Having a $50MM/yr QB throwing to a very solid #2-type receiver and a bunch of guys who are either good stories or have 'potential'...but who wouldn't sniff the field for the current AFC North Division Champs;

A TE who had a nice season (finally) being able to keep it up and take another step;

A kicker with an apparent case of the yips;

A team built to run that will transition to a team built to pass...see all of the above.

Watson? I'm not worried about the on-the-filed Watson...not really at all.

3 Deshaun Watson stats to consider in rebuilding Browns offense
Updated: Jan. 25, 2023, 4:40 p.m.|Published: Jan. 25, 2023, 12:12 p.m.
By Dan Labbe, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Browns are setting out to build an offense around and for Deshaun Watson this offseason.

“We are going to sit down. Met with him today,” Watson said the day after the season ended about working through the offense with head coach and play-caller Kevin Stefanski. “We are going to have a man-to-man conversation. Nothing negative or anything like that, but just what can we do to be better offensively and as a team.”

What are some realities to consider with Watson? Stefanski has never called a full season of plays for a quarterback of his caliber or one who plays the way Watson plays. The two will have to find a way to meet in the middle to figure out how to get the best out of each other.

Let’s dig into some data from Pro Football Focus to figure out the type of player Watson is and has been at his best and the things to consider as this offense gets rebuilt.

Most stats are filtered to include only quarterbacks who took at least 20% of the highest number of snaps.

The ball won’t always come out quickly
From Week 13 on, Watson was second in the league among qualified quarterbacks in time to throw on all dropbacks at 3.35 seconds. On dropbacks ending in a pass attempt, he was tied with Miami’s Skylar Thompson for the longest time to throw at 3.13 seconds.

Don’t worry about the other names with Watson in these rankings. The point here is Watson is going to be in the pocket longer and generally take longer to throw the football. This has been the case throughout his career.

Watson was tied with Josh Allen for fifth in longest time to throw in 2020 at 2.99 seconds, though the ball was coming out faster on plays ending in a pass attempt, 2.64 seconds, 14th in the league.

In 2019, Watson was second behind Lamar Jackson in all pass dropbacks at 2.97 seconds but, again, on pass attempts, was at 2.64 seconds, tied for 18th.

It was similar in 2018 when he was third behind Allen and Jackson on all dropbacks at 3.17 seconds, though slower on plays when he attempted a pass -- 2.84 seconds, which was fourth longest.

The takeaway here is while Watson’s time in the pocket was generally on par with his career numbers, the ball wasn’t coming out quite as quickly, an indication he wasn’t completely comfortable in the offense quite yet, meaning he was relying more on his athleticism and ability to keep plays alive.

The task here is to meld Watson’s ability to keep a play alive while giving him the ability to again get the ball into his receivers’ hands quicker than he did this season. This will never be the Tom Brady or Drew Brees “drop back and the ball is out” offense -- it’s not how Watson plays and trying to turn him into that type of quarterback would be taking away what makes him special.

More time on task and a better understanding of the offense will lead to the ball coming out faster when things are right and make his ability to stay on his feet and keep plays alive even more dangerous when things break down.

He will create his own pressure
Not all pressures are on the offensive line and, hand in hand with the above point, Watson will bear some of the responsibility for pressure created.

Among qualified quarterbacks over the season’s last six weeks, Watson was sixth in pressures he was responsible for creating and had the highest percentage of dropbacks with some responsibility for pressure.

Bad, right? Not really.

A few of the quarterbacks ahead of Watson in the former stat were Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes while Josh Allen and Tom Brady weren’t far behind.

In the latter stat, Jalen Hurts was second.

A player who plays like Watson will put a strain on his offensive line at times and create pressure of his own making, but it can be worth it because of what he can do when he buys time and makes plays off script.

Watson was fourth in pressures he created in 2020 and was fifth in percentage in which he carried some responsibility. In 2019, he was 10th and sixth, respectively.

Pressure isn’t always an offensive line stat and there will be times when it appears Watson is under fire -- and sometimes he’ll do it to himself -- but it’s worth it because he can make magic.

Depth of target needs to increase
Over the final six weeks of the season, Watson attempted 13 passes of 20 or more yards -- which PFF qualifies as deep attempts -- tied for 24th in the league. It was just 7.6% of his throws, 38th among qualified quarterbacks.

Is this a perfect stat? No. Zach Wilson had the highest percentage of throws over 20 yards and Mahomes was 25th at 11.5% over the season’s final six weeks, but there is something here to keep in mind.

In 2020, Watson was ninth in deep attempts and players ahead of him included the likes of Mahomes, Brady, Allen, Aaron Rodgers and Herbert -- and Drew Lock, just for fun. Watson was 18th in percentage of deep throws at 12.3%, right behind Mahomes.

Watson was tied for seventh in 2019 in attempts and fifth in attempt percentage and, while PFF’s grades can be flawed, it’s at least worth noting he had the league’s second-highest grade on deep throws.

Watson’s average depth of target (ADOT) in 2019 was 9.1 yards (tied for 11th) and 9.4 yards (fifth in the league) in 2020.

In his six games with the Browns, his ADOT was 7.9 yards, 28th in the league. (We’ll note, again, Mahomes was below Watson here, too.)

Why does it matter? Watson has generally been an aggressive quarterback who throws deep. Only once before this season was his ADOT below nine and it was barely below at 8.9 yards in 2018.

There are a few factors to consider here, beginning with the health of Amari Cooper, who was dealing with a core injury over the season’s final five weeks.

Outside of Cooper, however, the Browns lack a serious deep threat. Donovan Peoples-Jones helps, but they need to add more speed to their receiver room, especially given Anthony Schwartz’s lack of development. It’s a priority on par with defensive tackle and edge rusher.

WAS a top 5 QB.
POTENTIAL franchise changer

Nobody knows what we will get in 2023. NOBODY!!!!!!!!

I believe we see a better version of DW in 2023. If he is not a top 5 QB, he better be trending that way and the Browns better be in the playoffs.
With a new DC and better QB play anticipated the expectations are real.


As much as the believers say DW will be back and better than ever, Most of us would like to see it.

Just a general note about DW - while I am somewhat hopeful of him improving and being good enough to take us to the playoffs and win post season games .... I think there's an important clarification to be made in the discussion about this year's performance and next year's improvement and what to expect / what's expectable or makes the trade collateral and contract worthwhile ....

Unfortunately - for me at least - the way that Watson played in 2022 leaves a LOT of room for improvement, and he could still be an average NFL QB in 2023. Let's face it - rust, mental attrition, time with the play book - whatever reason/excuse you want to give Watson for 2022, and no matter how expected or otherwise ... he played badly or below average for most of his 6 games. He played one exemplary half. When we talk about expecting to see improvement - of course. Absolutely. Otherwise the trade wasn't bad, it was monumentally, epically bad. But seeing big improvement and then seeing Watson rank somewhere in the 16-14 range as a QB, middle of the pack - would still be a fail.

While some may not like your post, business is all about risk verses reward. In that context your post was very accurate.

I think the biggest difference is that some of us aren't trying to guess. Not that there's anything wrong with that. I don't recall anyone say that they believe he will fail. What I have seen is some guess that he will be a huge success, and even one giving that success odds of a 0.05% chance of failing. That's pretty damned sure right there. lol

What I have seen more than anything else is those that say we don't know which way it will work out, which is an actual non opinion or guess, get pasted in a negative light. Not by you per say. I believe most everyone on this board are hoping for the best results possible.