DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum The Watson Trade continued

I think that accountability fell on the QB that Stefanski and Berry decided was not good enough to lead the team to where they wanted to get. The GM and coach before them brought him here and he could not deliver. They made a trade that will not pay off until this fall so that will re start their clock. 2021 was about that QB not having the ability to progress. 2022 was lost trying to get a replacement that had issues. Now 2023 they will start to get judged for their results.

Your prediction isn't anything special, shocking, or over the top. There are a just a couple consistent QBs that make the Super Bowl.

Generalization = all this talk about we could've competed with a average/above average QB. Please show me one below (I see just one, Flacco from 10 years ago). Our FO made the trade to give us a "chance" at reaching the playoffs consistently and a chance to reach the big game.

AFC Super Bowl QBs:
2023 - Mahomes
2022 - Burrow
2021 - Mahomes
2020 - Mahomes
2019 - Brady
2018 - Brady
2017 - Brady
2016 - Manning
2015 - Brady
2014 - Manning
2013 - Flacco
2012 - Brady
2011 - Roethlisberger
2010 - Manning
2009 - Roethlisberger
2008 - Brady
2007 - Manning
2006 - Roethlisberger


...I would be shocked if we don't go or win the Super Bowl

I

Brutal.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35532896/nfl-quarterback-contract-bargain-salary-best-worst

Best bargain: Patrick Mahomes

Make no mistake: With an average effective compensation for our purposes of just under $31 million (and even a 2022 cap hit under $36 million), Mahomes is an absolute bargain. He was by far the best and most valuable quarterback this season: His 132.8 clutch-weighted EPA total easily was first at the position (Josh Allen was second at 119.3) and well above expectations based on his earnings. In other words: Mahomes is worth many, many millions beyond what he's currently paid. In fact, even if we only considered the $46.8 million cap hit he's set to cost in 2023, he still would be a value at his current level of play.


Worst bargain: Deshaun Watson

It somehow went slightly under the radar just how badly Watson played in 2022 after returning from an 11-game suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy by committing sexual assault, as defined by the league, on massage therapists. His QBR was 38.3 -- barely beating out Russell Wilson (37.0) and trailing far behind teammate Jacoby Brissett (59.9) -- over his six games with the Browns despite signing a deal with $230 million guaranteed last offseason. Lest you think this was just a volume thing: Even if we did this exercise on a per-snap basis Watson would still rank last in his category. Sure, his contract was made with future seasons in mind. But in 2022, even if we focus on only what he did on the field, Watson was the worst quarterback value by a mile. -- Seth Walder

Watson sure looked like the worst bargain for sure but we need to wait until next year to be sure. after then, a decision should be easier.

Gosh, I hope he has more to offer than what everyone saw first-hand.

In fact, if that was the case... I'd rather trade him for a conditional 2nd round pick in 2025 and resign Brissett.

I think some of the talking heads are playing the what-if game that ran through my mind on DW. If it works out in our favor, and he's stellar for years to come and has no further off-field issues, then it's a good trade. If he doesn't play at an elite level, at least top ten consistently, then we were fleeced.

I think you must consider that this evaluation is based on where things stand as of now. On the evidence presented at this point in time. And based on that there's nothing absurd about it. Anyone seeing this as absurd are using their crystal balls to predict the future and not looking strictly at the evidence at hand. Hopefully you and some others are correct in your predictions. But that's what they are. Predictions.

Yes, and not at all.

What have you done for me lately? 2022 was a true representation of him as a player as well. You are what your most recent efforts show you are, so, until - and unless - he shows that he is still who he USED TO BE, then he isn't that player. You can discount that and hate on it all you want, but it won't change that fact. If this weren't true, then Deion would still be lining up across from #1's instead of promoting himself as a coach.

Now, does Watson have the potential and ability to come back and be the player he was? There is no real reason I can think of that he cannot be. 100%. In fact, it should be the baseline expectation to the degree that if he doesn't, he's a failure here. There really isn't any middle ground on that, either.

... but, with a full offseason here in Cleveland heading into autumn of 2022, I would have said the same things about him prior to him playing this past season, too. There's no real reason that I can think of that he was as bad as he was at times. Everyone keeps wanting to say "rust", but I don't buy that unless he just wasn't doing any work. He got here in March of last year and finally set foot on the field in what, December? He had at least EIGHT MONTHS to work on himself, the offense, and work with the guys on the team, and he wasn't remotely that bad even in preseason, nor - reportedly - in training camp.

Not to cause an argument but I have a question I'd like your opinion on. You said: "No human being under the microscope of so many and under the circumstances he was living in is going to be mentally unaffected."

You do realize that Watson has been ordered to give a deposition on one of his cases and court dates should being set for one or both of the remaining suits. The press will most certainly be highly negative, and no one knows what might surface during the deposition or trials.

Do you have an opinion on whether this will again affect Watson and do you believe we as fans should give him the benefit of the doubt again in 2023 if he plays poor because "No human being under the microscope of so many and under the circumstances he was living in is going to be mentally unaffected?"

Just wondering because the legal problems with Watson are not over yet and if he was to lose one or both of the suits, 2022 will seem like a walk in the park compared to the scrutiny he'll get in 2023.

Let's stop making excuses for Watson... Purdy and Watson were in somewhat similar boats.

Brock Purdy was the last player drafted in 2022 and on a team with an offense that was not designed for him. He didn't get any reps behind Jimmy G or Lance. He had to practice & simulate on his own with no real game speed. The team was use to Jimmy G & Lance when he became the starter through injury.

Purdy
6 Regular season games 67% completion% 1374 passing yards 13 TD 4 INT 107.3 RTG 65.6 QBR He went 6-0 in the regular season and won 2 playoff games

Watson
6 Regular season games 58.2% completion% 1102 passing yards 7TD 5 INT 79.1 RTG 38.3 QBR He went 3-3 in the regular season

Well, when put like that, it seems Watson..........eh, has some work to do.

The same guys who are trashing Watson are the same guys who made excuse after excuse for Baker.

There are no guarantees that the Browns will reach the promised land w/Watson, but at least they now have a chance. Then had no chance w/the trash qb that is Baker Mayfield. Glad our FO did not listen to the

It's okay to be wrong about a player, but refusing to acknowledge you were wrong is not a good look.

Watson sucked horribly last year. The reality is... we all have to hope and pray that he gets his act together and starts playing like a top 15 QB.

Watson's best game was against Washinton he went 9/18 (50%) for 169 yards with 3 TDs (almost 50% of his 6-game TD total)

The most passing yards Watson had was 276 against Cincy on 42 attempts

Against NO Watson threw the ball 31 times for a whopping 135 yards.... LOL!

4/6 games Watson was under 170 yards passing

The other game where he was over 170 yards... Pittsburgh. He was sacked a whopping 7 times.

Brisset was sacked 24 times in 11 games Watson was sacked 20 times in 6 games

Can you show me one game where Watson played well last year...

Just one game where you could say... WOW! That's my quarterback! That guy is going to take us places!

and what's more, backups do this Every. Single. Year.
Without fail, backups come in after getting nearly zero reps once the season begins and only what they don't want the 1st team to get in training camp and they step in for whomever the starter was and they have a good season. Not all of them, but a decent enough number of them that it is FAR from an uncommon story.

And the same people who accepted no excuses for Baker are now making excuses for watson. But just ignore that part.

j/c:

This is for those of you who think trading for Watson was terrible and that he isn't a good qb due to his poor play in the last 6 games of last season.

What should the Browns have done w/the QB position instead of trading for Watson? The Browns thought they had a good roster and could compete for the Super Bowl in the next few years. Who should they have got instead of Watson? Carson Wentz? Marcus Mariota? Jimmy G? Andy Dalton? Should they have kept a guy who fell behind Sam Darnold and PJ Walker this year and is about to be on his 4th team in less than a year? A guy who only was claimed by one team when he was put on waivers? Should they have drafted Malik Wilis in the draft?

Once again, there are no guarantees.......but, I think the Browns are "prioritizing winning" and they made the bold move of acquiring the best qb that was available.

We should have drafted Brock Purdy in the 7th round. We could have signed Geno Smith. We could have let Brissett be our starting QB and signed better DL & kept our picks.

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-index-ranking-all-68-starting-quarterbacks-from-the-2022-nfl-season
Rank
28
Deshaun Watson
Cleveland Browns · Year 6

The Browns saw little evidence of the player they furnished with a fully guaranteed $230 million. Buried under layers of rust, Watson initially disrupted a Cleveland offense that ranked fourth in DVOA through Week 12 before stumbling to 15th during Watson's six starts. His five touchdowns over the final two weeks of the season were promising, but Watson is under heavy pressure to resemble a top-five passer come September. The Browns gave up too many picks and far too much cash -- alienating a pocket of the fan base along the way -- to field a quarterback who makes us long for the days of Jacoby Brissett.



the reality is no one knows how Watson will pan out. I really hope he kicks butt in 2023 and takes us to the Superbowl. Right now, I would rather have Brisett, our picks, and cap space.

These QB rankings are comical.

I say we trade Watson to Carolina for DT Derrick Brown and a couple of 1st round picks and then sign Derek Carr.

Not sure if you are joking or not? Drafting Brock Purdy in the 7th round should have been part of our planning process?

That's the thing about plans. They're only good plans if they succeed. I don't think the last pick in the draft is a plan. I think that's more of a shot in the dark. But had NFL talent evaluators have actually known how good he would play, drafting him would have been a great plan. There are only successful plans and failed plans. They are based solely on results.

You aren’t taking into account the cap hit.

Which ones are completely out of whack?

Watson, for sure.

I was.

He's in the top 30 out of 68.

Based on his play in 2022?

Two posts and all of this morning's honest discussions come to a close. Time to sign off.

I understand why this bothers you. But that's not the fault of anyone else. The actual headline of the article being discussed.


You said that was completely out of whack. Why is asking you if you base that opinion on his play in 2022 a close to honest discussion? Next I would have asked you why you thought that was out of whack?

That may not be something you want to discuss but that doesn't mean it's not an honest discussion.

I know people immediately see my comment and think it equates to Watson's position and I think there are some QBs above him that shouldn't be, but Lamar Jackson is ranked WAY TOO HIGH compared to other QBs below him "in 2022". I think Jared Goff and Geno Smith being in the Top 10 is funny. I think Cousins had a fantastic season and should be ranked far higher than 17. Trey Lance ranked over Matt Ryan, Heinicke, and yes, even Baker Mayfield?

As far as Watson is concerned, I'd rank him higher than Pickett, Winston, Dalton, Mariota as a start.

And Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts ranked higher than Josh Allen just reeks of playoff recency bias to me. Allen should be higher than both of them and I think there is an argument for the #1 spot.

basically what I just did.

ok that's interesting. I mean... it is always people's opinions. PFF ranked Watson 33 and Allen 3

Geno Smith is ranked 8
Jackson is ranked 14
Dalton is ranked 11
Goff is ranked 16

Pickett is ranked 20
Mariota is ranked 28
Winston isn't ranked
Cousins is ranked 7




https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-quarterback-rankings-and-tiers#:~:text=2022%20NFL%20quarterback%20rankings%20and,PFF

PFF ranks

Patrick Mahomes
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen
Tua Tagovailoa
Jalen Hurts
Justin Herbert
Kirk Cousins
Geno Smith
Tom Brady
Trevor Lawrence
Andy Dalton
Daniel Jones
Brock Purdy
Lamar Jackson
Ryan Tannehill
Jared Goff
Aaron Rodgers
Dak Prescott
Jacoby Brissett
Kenny Pickett
Jimmy Garoppolo
Sam Darnold
Derek Carr
Kyler Murray
Matthew Stafford
Mac Jones
Russell Wilson
Marcus Mariota
Justin Fields
Davis Mills
Matt Ryan
Taylor Heinicke
Deshaun Watson
Carson Wentz
Desmond Ridder
Baker Mayfield
Zach Wilson

dang , where was lame r Jackson on that list,
so neither the Titans or the Ravens made the super bowl since 20I4 or before.
...
Man I don't see Deshaun Watson on that list at ALL.
If he doesn't win it "this" year, he never will.
I mean, there are only two times you can win it, THIS time or last time, there is no such thing as "next" time.

While I certainly agree that rankings can vary and not everyone will see it the same, this ranking certainly seems to indicate that when it comes to watson they see him ranked even lower. And it's a source that many people use as the best possible source. At least when it suits their best interest to do so. Not you per say.

Rank QB Weighted Average PFF Analysts Pass Grade/ Snap Overall Grade/ Snap PFF WAR PFF WAR/Snap EPA/Pass

1 Patrick Mahomes 2.26 1.25 3 5 2 2 2
2 Joe Burrow 2.79 1.75 1 3 1 1 8
3 Josh Allen 3.60 3.00 5 1 3 4 5
4 Tua Tagovailoa 6.35 11.00 2 6 9 3 3
5 Jalen Hurts 7.05 4.00 7 4 8 10 10
6 Justin Herbert 9.28 5.50 12 15 6 8 13
7 Kirk Cousins 9.30 10.00 6 11 4 6 17
8 Geno Smith 10.20 9.00 11 12 7 9 14
9 Tom Brady 11.16 8.25 10 19 5 7 20
10 Trevor Lawrence 11.44 7.75 16 14 10 15 11
11 Andy Dalton 11.53 14.50 4 8 11 5 19
12 Daniel Jones 14.16 15.25 19 7 12 14 15
13 Brock Purdy 14.20 17.00 9 17 28 11 1
14 Lamar Jackson 14.20 9.00 17 2 19 18 18
15 Ryan Tannehill 14.49 18.75 8 16 17 12 12
16 Jared Goff 14.79 14.75 18 24 14 20 6
17 Aaron Rodgers 15.78 10.50 15 22 13 17 22
18 Dak Prescott 16.03 16.50 20 18 18 21 7
19 Jacoby Brissett 16.80 17.00 13 10 16 16 24
20 Kenny Pickett 17.83 20.50 14 13 15 13 25
21 Jimmy Garoppolo 19.89 25.75 21 23 25 22 4
22 Sam Darnold 23.93 27.50 23 29 30 29 9
23 Derek Carr 24.19 25.75 27 32 23 27 16
24 Kyler Murray 24.40 22.00 30 20 27 28 21
25 Matthew Stafford 24.91 25.25 22 26 26 19 28
26 Mac Jones 25.04 21.75 24 27 22 23 33
27 Russell Wilson 25.63 28.50 28 25 20 26 26
28 Marcus Mariota 26.91 28.25 29 21 29 30 23
29 Justin Fields 26.91 21.25 34 9 31 34 30
30 Davis Mills 27.94 31.75 26 31 21 24 32
31 Matt Ryan 28.53 31.50 25 28 24 25 34
32 Taylor Heinicke 32.29 28.75 36 35 36 36 27
33 Deshaun Watson 32.50 30.00 32 30 33 32 37
34 Carson Wentz 32.54 34.75 33 34 32 33 29
35 Desmond Ridder 32.68 34.50 31 33 34 31 31
36 Baker Mayfield 34.91 34.25 35 36 35 35 35
37 Zach Wilson 36.61 36.25 37 37 37 37 36

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-quarterback-rankings-and-tiers

At least that's how PFF sees it.

Cousins was 17 in the rankings and PFF has him 7.
Goff was 8, PFF has him 16.
I didn't even bring Fields up but thought to. The rankings have him 13, PFF 29. Trey Lance isn't even on the PPF list, but probably due to snaps.

As I mentioned, and your reply seems to prove it, I think the rankings are comical for other reasons outside of just a Watson ranking but people will think this way regardless.