I think many people here would list Nick Chubb as one of their top 3 favorite current Browns, maybe one of their favorite players ever. That said, Chubb is reaching the golden years for a RB and we've all seen the value drop on the position in the modern day NFL. Below is his 2024 salary and cap info. Many on here have suggested, correctly so IMO, that the 2024 year of the contract breakdown will be addressed by the FO in the sense of a restructure/extend or an outright release. Releasing him would add $12,200,000 to the books in 2024. I suppose the progress of other RBs plays into the equation but what should the Browns do with Chubb moving forward in your opinion? Cut bait and reallocate resources elsewhere while losing a player who could still produce or look to restructure that would most likely include an extension to a position group whose value has diminished and with a player who would hit his 30s??
Base Salary: $11,775,000 Cap Hit: $16,200,00 Dead Cap (if released): $4,000,000
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PRE-6/1 RELEASE 2024 Dead Cap: $4,000,000 2024 Cap Savings: $12,200,000
PRE-6/1 TRADE 2024 Dead Cap: $4,000,000 2024 Cap Savings: $12,200,000
POST-6/1 RELEASE 2024 Dead Cap: $4,000,000 2025 Dead Cap: $0 2024 Cap Savings: $12,200,000
POST-6/1 TRADE 2024 Dead Cap: $4,000,000 2025 Dead Cap: $0 2024 Cap Savings: $12,200,000
As has been discussed many times before, many people, me included, do not expect Chubb to be here next year. First one has to look at this from a business aspect. Because for the decision makers that's what it all revolves around. Their actions tell the story of what their strategy is moving forward and you can look around the NFL to see how that strategy plays out.
They signed watson to that 230 million guaranteed contract. So their chips are all in on him becoming the QB he used to be and not the one they saw the last six games of 2023. As such they upgraded the WR position by not only signing FA WR's but by also using their first draft pick to upgrade the position. Their hopes and investment show they are planning on watson once again becoming what they see as a prolific QB. If that comes to pass opposing defenses will have to play the passing game heavily while no longer being able to stack the box against the running game.
We have seen across the league where teams no longer have to have a top 5 or even top 10 RB to produce well in the running game when they can achieve such a scenario. So why would a team pay big money at the RB position when they can get good production in the running game while paying a fraction of that cost? From a business standpoint they wouldn't. And in this case I don't believe they will.
It was too cost prohibitive to make such a move this year, but not so much next season. Don't get me wrong, Chubb is a prime example of the very type of player I love seeing on the Browns roster. I would love nothing more than to see him spend his entire career as a Brown and retire as a Brown. But the NFL isn't the same as it was 30, 20 or even 10 years ago.
The Browns have a plan in place whether that proves to be a successful one or not. At this point they are all in. And paying big money at the RB position won't be a part of that plan moving forward.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
As sad as it is to say, I don’t think he finishes his career in Cleveland. The moment we traded for Watson, that was gonna be our identity and direction. And we can’t afford to pay a RB what Nick deserves
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
I think the bottom line is that the FO would like Chubb to stay but it's a matter of economics.
Why would they like him to stay? He's still a very productive RB. And if he does stay, the goal would to transcend him into the second half of a one-two-punch while making a younger back the 'jab'.
Why should Chubb want to stay and take a pay cut? Because he's had a very productive, five year career. We're getting close to the time when the right situation can prolong his career, in the city he was drafted, with a fan base that loves him, on an above-average-to-good team, that doesn't need to run him into the ground. Over the long haul, if the numbers are decent, that would/could actually benefit him.
My question to you Memphis: Although we obviously can't forecast the future or extrapolate his past productivity into the future; what would a three year extension for Chubb look like if your were GM?
People need to enjoy Nick Chubb instead of listening to that (OBR) bean counting green horn from across the pond.
A player is not just a number Jack! ... and speeking of numbers Chubb is have a HOF career to this point.
Like I said, lets enjoy the ride and let AB and Chubbs agent do the rest, because Chibb needs to be a Brown for life, followed by his bust down the road.
As sad as it is to say, I don’t think he finishes his career in Cleveland. The moment we traded for Watson, that was gonna be our identity and direction. And we can’t afford to pay a RB what Nick deserves
I tend to agree with you but I am hoping otherwise ... and yet if it had been a different poster that said this, I could see them being vilified for it as a hater, instead of it simply being a (probable) truism.
The more things change the more they stay the same.
To add, who’s to say he won’t be the next Frank Gore and be productive into his 30s? I can see that happening, especially if, as others posted here, we can get a back to lighten Chubb’s workload?
If he even needs lightening of the workload.
He’s only played five seasons, let’s not be hasty in picking out his burial plot. He’s strong and tough.
My question to you Memphis: Although we obviously can't forecast the future or extrapolate his past productivity into the future; what would a three year extension for Chubb look like if your were GM?
In short, I don't really know and RBs hit their decline in production at various points, whether based on # touches or naturally as the body gets older. But, on the macro level according to this site, that age is 28.
Quote
The main contributor to running back regression is their age. The production usually starts to trend down when we see players hit the age of 28. Sometimes workload and amount of carries can play a factor, but that number can be skewed by running backs who have missed a lot of time with injuries. Most players are coming into the league at 22, and unless it’s a rare case, they are usually not producing great seasons past the age of 28. There are rare occurrences over the years like Priest Holmes and Adrian Peterson, who have had top-five years despite being older. But for the most part, we are wanting to target those under the age of 28 if we are looking for a top-12 finish. I went to Pro Football Reference to compile some data to see what fantasy scoring has looked like for running backs based on their age over the last 22 years.
There is a graphic in at the article but it stops afterwards because it is a paid article, but I think you get the gist of it. The topic is also identifying fantasy RBs in leagues, admittedly, but the reasoning still stands for a team paying top $ for running backs on their rosters.
From PFF back in 2017:
Quote
t's no secret that running backs hit their prime somewhere between the ages of 25 and 28.
(I deleted the article while writing this response but if anyone questions one sentence, I'll try and find it again)
Nick Chubb is currently 27 and turns 28 in December according to wikipedia. He never had an injury 'history'. He has one season-ending injury as a sophomore at Georgia. And until last year, he did get rest with Hunt playing a decent amount of snaps. That should all be taken into consideration re: longevity.
As far as a 3-year extension in concerned, and the basis of your question, I suppose it could happen. If so, maybe something akin to (1) restructuring the current contract including 2024 money, (2) adding two additional years that amortizes bonus/guaranteed money through 2026 or beyond (as all teams do to manipulate the cap) and (3) while leaving the Browns in a cap situation where they save "cap" money heading into the 2026 by releasing him.
Just my thoughts.
At DT, context and meaning are a scarecrow kicking at moving goalposts.
It really isn't much of a choice. Trade him, cut him, or get a salary reduction.
I like Chubb as much as anyone, but I like the Browns more.
My feeling on backs is that if you have a decent O line, average backs won't give you all that much less than a stud back. Nick is super, but he really isn't the type of back who can create yards like a Barry Sanders could create yards out of nothing.
If Ford looks ready to carry the load, and one of the other backs looks decent enough as a back-up, I would consider trading Chubb before the deadline if some team buys high and make a good offer.
I think it was Belicheck, but someone said it is better to get rid of a player a year soon than a year late.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.
Remember not long ago when Ray Farmer and others thought that the WRs' were of low value to a team?
Things changed in that respect and the defenses followed accordingly ... last year teams started to exploit that weakness as we all know only too well, but many teams got ran on last season ... I don't think it necessarily helped the value of the RB postion overall, but I think that it did cause a pause in their being under valued on a roster.
As far as age is concerned, I think that it is more of a case by case thing, some of the better RBs' have been successful into their 30s' and the thing with Nick Chubb is that taking care of his body is a daily process and it is a high priority to him compared to most players at any position ... I think that it's safe to say that he is not out partying it up and burning the midnight oil nightly.
It really isn't much of a choice. Trade him, cut him, or get a salary reduction.
I like Chubb as much as anyone, but I like the Browns more.
My feeling on backs is that if you have a decent O line, average backs won't give you all that much less than a stud back. Nick is super, but he really isn't the type of back who can create yards like a Barry Sanders could create yards out of nothing.
If Ford looks ready to carry the load, and one of the other backs looks decent enough as a back-up, I would consider trading Chubb before the deadline if some team buys high and make a good offer.
I think it was Belicheck, but someone said it is better to get rid of a player a year soon than a year late.
shouldn't this topic be on the future of the Head Coach who can't win with another set of new players.
at, about 8:30 last morning, It dawned on me, I can pretty much guarantee the Browns won't win it all this year, b/c teams that win it all have a characteristic, among others, the players, stick around and grow together in their roles, not constantly change.
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
It really isn't much of a choice. Trade him, cut him, or get a salary reduction.
I like Chubb as much as anyone, but I like the Browns more.
My feeling on backs is that if you have a decent O line, average backs won't give you all that much less than a stud back. Nick is super, but he really isn't the type of back who can create yards like a Barry Sanders could create yards out of nothing.
If Ford looks ready to carry the load, and one of the other backs looks decent enough as a back-up, I would consider trading Chubb before the deadline if some team buys high and make a good offer.
I think it was Belicheck, but someone said it is better to get rid of a player a year soon than a year late.
I think that is an ungreatful attitude.
Just being realistic. Being grateful or ungrateful has nothing to do with it.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.
Remember not long ago when Ray Farmer and others thought that the WRs' were of low value to a team?
Things changed in that respect and the defenses followed accordingly ... last year teams started to exploit that weakness as we all know only too well, but many teams got ran on last season ... I don't think it necessarily helped the value of the RB postion overall, but I think that it did cause a pause in their being under valued on a roster.
As far as age is concerned, I think that it is more of a case by case thing, some of the better RBs' have been successful into their 30s' and the thing with Nick Chubb is that taking care of his body is a daily process and it is a high priority to him compared to most players at any position ... I think that it's safe to say that he is not out partying it up and burning the midnight oil nightly.
Haha Ray Farmer was so bad. Content to get mid WRs and then literally within the next 5 years the NFL becomes a straight passing league and WR contracts explode
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
May sound crazy, but I love Chubb and I want him here for as long as he's productive. Every player reaches a point where they no longer meet the dollar value. That's when it should end. Ideally, I'd like him to retire a Brown.
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.” Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe." Damanshot
Daman...I too want to see Nick Chubb retire as a Cleveland Brown.
Some don't understand what rare talent Nick Chubb is as a football player.
Here we are with Nick Chubb coming off his most productive season running the ball and we have fans who are tuned in to the "talking heads" who want to talk about trading Chubb...that is nuts.
Why not talk about it? I am pretty sure next year is his contract year.
If he wants to extend a year, then keep him through next season. If he wants to retire after next season, then keep him next season. If he wants a big contract after next season beyond a 1 year deal, trade him before next season.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.
I'm actually more worried about Chubb in '23 in a pistol-heavy offense. I think our pistol looked very clunky last year...I don't think that set fits Chubb all that well. To be fair, everything Watson looked clunky last year...so maybe they just need to get familiar/comfortable...I sure hope that's the case.
The pistol look is a concern for me too. Our run game didn’t look as smooth (of course, our OL was banged up too).
The patented Chubb/ZBS running may not be in the cards
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
It really isn't much of a choice. Trade him, cut him, or get a salary reduction.
I like Chubb as much as anyone, but I like the Browns more.
My feeling on backs is that if you have a decent O line, average backs won't give you all that much less than a stud back. Nick is super, but he really isn't the type of back who can create yards like a Barry Sanders could create yards out of nothing.
If Ford looks ready to carry the load, and one of the other backs looks decent enough as a back-up, I would consider trading Chubb before the deadline if some team buys high and make a good offer.
I think it was Belicheck, but someone said it is better to get rid of a player a year soon than a year late.
I think that is an ungreatful attitude.
Just being realistic. Being grateful or ungrateful has nothing to do with it.
Agreed Peen.
When this was talked about at the beginning of the off-season, my opinion was this will be his last good year then he will start trailing off. He has two at the most in him. It's not his fault. It's not his work ethic, b/c that is what will/has pro-long the inevitable. But Mother Nature will win out.
And that's pretty much it in a nut shell. We all know that the decision making with the Browns relies highly on analytics. Sure people can point to RB's that had longer careers. But those are far more the exception to the rule than the rule itself. Even Jim Brown chose to walk away from the game at 30.
Some people love the idea of using analytics to make football decisions. Others not so much. I think analytics are a very good tool in the process. But do fans actually expect a FO whose decision making process is highly influenced by analytics to go against the analytics here? He's already under contract for the 2023 season. So that would mean a three year extension would go well beyond peak years for a RB in the NFL.
What we have here is a situation where the two parties will most likely see things very differently. Athletes have a very hard time saying they are past their peak. They may also be the exception and not be past their peak. I'm sure Chubb and his representatives will see that the next contract will be his last shot at a huge dollar contract even it it's only a two year deal. Why wouldn't they want that? The Browns on the other hand would play the analytics and not be willing to offer it.
Is that written in stone somewhere? No it's not. It's simply a logical conclusion.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
I feel about Nick Chubb much the way I felt about Joe Thomas after he had been here for a while. He's everything you want in a player and I hope he gets to compete for championships. I hope it's here, but if it's not, I'll still root for him.
Context is everything ... Jim Brown did not quit because he lost it. No! he quit to pursue his movie career and other passions of his life.
Jim Brown was not a run of the mill RB ... and neither is Nick Chubb.
After only five years and people are already planning his demise.
The numbers are what they are and have been posted. Are you suggesting this FO will ignore the analytics on RB's in order to give Chubb some huge amount of money for an extension? Or are you saying that Chubb will take a much lower contract amount than what he thinks he can get on the open market?
You do realize the game has totally changed since Jim Brown was a RB and that the value of RB's isn't nearly as high as it was back then, right?
Here's the rub in all of this. If a team has a top 10 QB, they can get great production in the running game without a prolific RB. They have no need to pay big money for a prolific RB. So much of this may hinge on watson's 2023 season. We'll have to wait and see on that.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
He's everything you want in a player and I hope he gets to compete for championships. I hope it's here, but if it's not, I'll still root for him.
What a slap in the face to Browns fans that would be. To watch your player from your team win a championship for another team.
Why can't this organization, your own team just get it's act together, get it's head out of the water, and compete and win something for your own team.
I don't care about feel good stories from hallmark cards.
I care about the BROWNS freaking winning something, in my lifetime.
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
While it is evident that RB's longevity and long-term value are diminished...it's also fair to say that Chubb has not been used/worked like a rented mule. There is always the chance that that will increase his longevity.
Chubb is right up there with Joe T as my favorite Brown since 1999. Third choice would be a distance behind.
Chubb is one of my favorite Browns along with Leroy Kelly, Brian Sipe and Ozzie Newsome ...
John 3:16 Jesus said "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life."
I do not believe there is even a remote chance the Browns pay Chubb $16.2M next season, especially not with an offense that is going to skew heavily towards passing.
My thought last year was that 2023 was without a doubt Chubb's final year as Brown due to his huge cap hit for the RB position.
Stefanski and Berry have talked recently about the huge importance of team building and team chemistry. The importance is highlighted by the team spending the first week+ of training camp at the Greenbriar Resort away from family with sole focus being on the team. Nick Chubb is a glue guy, a locker room guy and well respected by his teammates. If the Browns outright release a team guy like Chubb due to salary cap issues it sends a poor if not contradictory message to the team.
I believe Berry finds a way to sign Chubb to an extension and rework Chubb's contract to lower his cap hit for 2024 and remain with Browns for a couple more years.
I'm a loyal person. I don't want to see Chubb leave. By the same token, I know a little about how things work. It is what it is.
On a side note - "there are things in life I'm glad I don't have to do....." reminded me of our high school football team. I was out of school at the time. But, our h.s. team played whatever team O.J. McDuffie played for - in I think regional semis. OJ was a running back then. The guy was unbelievable! His speed, his cuts. Fond memories of watching him in that 1 game back when. yeah, tackling him was, uh, tough, as even when you had him dead to rights, he could stop, pivot, and watch you go flying through the air. There's a reason he went to D1, and then the nfl.
Well...he was (3) carries away from being 4th. Just kidding...that is certainly more than I thought.
Also interesting is that Chubb has played his whole career-to-date with Hunt...and with Hunt taking a lot of short-yardage carries...I would have thought that number would be lower. I looked at each of his years in the league for where he stood on # of carries by year:
Well...he was (3) carries away from being 4th. Just kidding...that is certainly more than I thought.
Also interesting is that Chubb has played his whole career-to-date with Hunt...and with Hunt taking a lot of short-yardage carries...I would have thought that number would be lower. I looked at each of his years in the league for where he stood on # of carries by year:
I stumbled across the initial stat at the end of last season, and yes, it was surprising. I think there are a number of reasons for surprise: He never looks 'run down'. He never goes from week to week with ongoing nagging injuries. He usually finishes a season strong rather than looking 'burned out'. In short, all those 'tell-tale' signs aren't present in Nick Chubb. He just looks the role from every angle. He could probably close in on Henry-type usage and not really look beat down. Just another part of what makes him a great running back.
He never looks 'run down'. He never goes from week to week with ongoing nagging injuries. He usually finishes a season strong rather than looking 'burned out'. In short, all those 'tell-tale' signs aren't present in Nick Chubb. He just looks the role from every angle. He could probably close in on Henry-type usage and not really look beat down. Just another part of what makes him a great running back.
I don't know how other RBs train but Chubb seems to take his craft very seriously in many of the videos I've seen. I'm sure that plays a part.
At DT, context and meaning are a scarecrow kicking at moving goalposts.
And he still goes back to his hometown in the offseason... and shows up at his high school nearly everyday for his workout. All those videos showing his incredible 'feats of strength' are from Cedartown's weight room. Still works out with his personal coach who has been training him since he was 14.
“He is like a father to me beyond football. If I need anything, I come to him. I owe everything to him. Every year, he makes sure I'm in the best shape ever, makes sure I'm strong and fast. He doesn't take it easy on me. He pushes me every day.
“He knows me so well. I could go pay a bunch of money somewhere I don't know, and they could kind of take it easy on me. That's what I feel like would happen. They wouldn't really know me that well. The biggest thing for me is just staying down, staying humble and going back to my roots.”
So you combine all the other tangibles and intangibles and put them in the perfect RB body -- great strength, low center of gravity, balance and stability of a bowling ball. And then... the perfect running style... no b.s., no dancing, quick cut and pound, economy of movement that is unparalleled.
Alright, I'll stop. 🤣
Figure out the money and let this dude retire in Brown and Orange.
So you combine all the other tangibles and intangibles and put them in the perfect RB body -- great strength, low center of gravity, balance and stability of a bowling ball. And then... the perfect running style... no b.s., no dancing, quick cut and pound, economy of movement that is unparalleled.
Alright, I'll stop.
Fate...that is the best description I've heard of Chubb's running style..." no b.s., no dancing, quick cut and pound, "
And he still goes back to his hometown in the offseason... and shows up at his high school nearly everyday for his workout. All those videos showing his incredible 'feats of strength' are from Cedartown's weight room. Still works out with his personal coach who has been training him since he was 14.
“He is like a father to me beyond football. If I need anything, I come to him. I owe everything to him. Every year, he makes sure I'm in the best shape ever, makes sure I'm strong and fast. He doesn't take it easy on me. He pushes me every day.
“He knows me so well. I could go pay a bunch of money somewhere I don't know, and they could kind of take it easy on me. That's what I feel like would happen. They wouldn't really know me that well. The biggest thing for me is just staying down, staying humble and going back to my roots.”
So you combine all the other tangibles and intangibles and put them in the perfect RB body -- great strength, low center of gravity, balance and stability of a bowling ball. And then... the perfect running style... no b.s., no dancing, quick cut and pound, economy of movement that is unparalleled.
Alright, I'll stop. 🤣
Figure out the money and let this dude retire in Brown and Orange.
I agree. The only weak sport in his running is straight ahead. Nick likes to seek a hole to attack. That doesn't work as well in goal line situations. That is why we saw Hunt in many of those situations.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.
If I recall correctly, Coach Stefanski has shown it's possible to lose a game where your rbs combine for over I70 all purpose yards, so Chubb is solid but there are no guarantees.
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
JMHO, we are about to leave the run game dominate OFFENSE for the DW option/passing OFFENSE- I hope Coach S doesn't forget Nick- with fewer people in box, he should even be better.....time will tell....GO Browns!!!!
"You've never lived till you've almost died, life has a flavor the protected will never know" A vet or cop
The market is always set by what the market will will bear. That's the nature of the beast in any corporation. As much as fans would like to believe otherwise, that's exactly what the NFL is. A corporation. All one has to do is look at the decline in the cost of NFL RB franchise tag numbers to see what a RB is worth in the NFL. There are some great RB's out there who can't get what they believe is a fair contract.
You may be correct with Chubb still being very good for the next three seasons however. There are facts that support just how fast a RB's stats fall off the cliff after 1800 carries. Chubb has currently had 1210 carries. Last season he had 302 carries. At that pace he wouldn't "fall off the cliff" until the end of the 2024 season which is two more years. I do believe his intense training may buy him one more season which would add up to your three year prediction.
Here is a breakdown of the 1800 carry cliff.
Measuring NFL Running Back Longevity: Falling Off the 1,800-Carry Cliff
His current contract has him being a Brown through the 2024 season. The question becomes that after all we've seen in regards to the Browns investment in the passing game and the apparent evolution into becoming more pass heavy, will they be willing to continue paying Chubb his high salary?
I'm a huge Nick Chubb fan. I would love nothing more than to see him remain a Browns until his retirement. But I'm also fully aware that it's the business side of this on the part of not only the team but on the side of Nick Chubb himself that will decide that. I think one must consider that a top RB is far more valuable to a team that does not have a prolific QB. They have to depend a lot more on the production of their running game that a team like the Chiefs don't have to. So if watson turns out to be a huge success that may help sway the scales for the Browns not to wish to make a huge investment in the running game moving forward. You don't need a great RB to have a productive running game when the opposing defense has to respect your passing game and can no longer stack the box.
Maybe Chubb will be willing to accept a huge discount. Maybe not.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
we really have seemed to be smart about his usage too. Having a healthy Hunt did help in that regard.
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
I think this will be Chubb's best year yet. If this offense clicks, he can be a devastating asset. It has always been the opponents task to stop him. Hopefully Watson takes some pressure off of him having to carry the offense. Stacking the box could end up being a bad decision for defenses. And if they can't, Chubb should have a great year.
I'm anticipating us trying to use him more in the passing game too. I think our offense should be more dynamic
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
The market is always set by what the market will will bear. That's the nature of the beast in any corporation. As much as fans would like to believe otherwise, that's exactly what the NFL is. A corporation. All one has to do is look at the decline in the cost of NFL RB franchise tag numbers to see what a RB is worth in the NFL. There are some great RB's out there who can't get what they believe is a fair contract.
You may be correct with Chubb still being very good for the next three seasons however. There are facts that support just how fast a RB's stats fall off the cliff after 1800 carries. Chubb has currently had 1210 carries. Last season he had 302 carries. At that pace he wouldn't "fall off the cliff" until the end of the 2024 season which is two more years. I do believe his intense training may buy him one more season which would add up to your three year prediction.
Here is a breakdown of the 1800 carry cliff.
Measuring NFL Running Back Longevity: Falling Off the 1,800-Carry Cliff
His current contract has him being a Brown through the 2024 season. The question becomes that after all we've seen in regards to the Browns investment in the passing game and the apparent evolution into becoming more pass heavy, will they be willing to continue paying Chubb his high salary?
I'm a huge Nick Chubb fan. I would love nothing more than to see him remain a Browns until his retirement. But I'm also fully aware that it's the business side of this on the part of not only the team but on the side of Nick Chubb himself that will decide that. I think one must consider that a top RB is far more valuable to a team that does not have a prolific QB. They have to depend a lot more on the production of their running game that a team like the Chiefs don't have to. So if watson turns out to be a huge success that may help sway the scales for the Browns not to wish to make a huge investment in the running game moving forward. You don't need a great RB to have a productive running game when the opposing defense has to respect your passing game and can no longer stack the box.
Maybe Chubb will be willing to accept a huge discount. Maybe not.
Well said.
All one has to do is look at other teams to see where NFL teams are at in regard to backs. Guys like Barkley haven't gotten extensions. The reality is teams aren't all that eager to extent a 4 year back in to more expensive, long term contracts. Some guys might buck the trend, but the facts show that back production starts to decline after year 5.
I see a lot of posts talking about Chubb playing longer using words like should, could, might, and if. If we are going to use those words, we need to add the words maybe, possibly, and hopefully. Those are the words that bring on words like can't, won't, and isn't , which cause contract numbers to decline. If even offered.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.
Nick sounded a bit frustrated in yesterdays presser
about the pay and respect RBs are getting
Yeah, it's obvious he's not going along with the devaluation of the RB position quietly.............
Browns’ Nick Chubb has something to say about the state of the running back position
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, W.Va. — Over his first five seasons, Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb has been dependable, productive and, at times, dominant.
He might be the NFL’s best running back, but he’s never been loquacious. Chubb never says much about anything, actually. So when he stepped to the podium after the Browns’ practice Sunday and started giving long answers about Saquon Barkley’s contract situation, the importance of the running back position in today’s NFL and even his own future, it was as rare as Chubb getting dropped for a loss.
“We’re definitely in a tough situation, running backs as a whole,” Chubb said. “Saquon is a great player and you can ask anyone around the league or even on the Giants how much he means to that team. So it’s hard seeing him not get what he deserves.”
On the first night of the Browns’ training camp trip to the Greenbrier Resort, Chubb joined some of the league’s other top running backs on a Zoom call. The primary topic of discussion was the reluctance of teams — not just the Giants — to make long-term financial commitments to running backs and kick around some possible (but unlikely) solutions to help backs who have already logged four or more NFL seasons to get paid like top players at other positions. The players shared ideas and frustrations about what Chubb called the “myth” that running backs age faster or more poorly than players at other positions.
“Well, I mean, right now it’s just tough — there’s really nothing we can do,” Chubb said. “We’re kind of handcuffed with the situation. The biggest thing is that we’re the only position that our production hurts us the most. If we go out there and run for 2,000 yards with so many carries, the next year they’re going to say you’re probably worn down. That’s the biggest thing that I took from it. It’s tough. It hurts us just to go out there and do good. It hurts us at the end of the day.
“I feel like I had to be (on that Zoom) … and listen to what everyone’s saying, and I feel like it was important for me to be there because we got young guys who’ll be up next like (Jonathan Taylor), Najee Harris and J.K. Dobbins. I feel like it was important for them to see my face and to hear my voice there just supporting everyone.”
Chubb is the first player in NFL history to have five straight seasons of at least 5.0 yards per carry on 100 or more rushes in each of those seasons, and in 2022 Chubb posted a career-high 1,525 rushing yards while tying a career high with 12 touchdown runs. He did that on a career-high 302 carries.
Even with the Browns set to open things up offensively with Deshaun Watson fully eligible and entrenched as their quarterback, Chubb is in line for another big season. Chubb said he still feels as valuable to the Browns as he ever has, and Kevin Stefanski — the Browns’ head coach and play caller — said he still views the running back position as important.
“For us it is,” Stefanski said. “I mean, we’ve got the best in the business, in my opinion (in Chubb). I know that (positional value) conversation and I know it’s complicated, but for us, we’re thrilled with the guys we have.”
Chubb, who will be 28 in December and has logged 1,210 career rushes, is under contract through 2024. But most of the guarantees in the deal he signed ahead of the 2021 season expire this year, and the Browns have significant financial commitments across their offensive roster for 2024 and beyond.
To this point, Chubb has aged well. So has the team-friendly contract he signed almost exactly two years ago, which included a signing bonus of $12 million and $20 million in guarantees. His $12.2 million average annual salary ranks fourth among running backs, and his 2023 salary-cap number is $14.85 million. Things could potentially get sticky in 2024 when Chubb’s cap number is around $16 million, but the Browns would incur just $4 million in dead money if Chubb is not on the roster.
It’s not that anybody’s thinking Chubb will have a subpar year or that the Browns want to move on from one of the best players — at any position — of the team’s new era. But Watson’s current cap number for 2024 is $63 million, and even once that’s inevitably reworked again into a more manageable number, the Browns still have four offensive linemen under cap numbers of at least $12 million for 2024, David Njoku at $18.3 million and Amari Cooper at $23.7 million. That’s why it was more than fair to ask general manager Andrew Berry about Chubb’s long-term standing with the team Sunday, which someone did.
“Nick Chubb is the type of player and person that you hope is with the organization as long as possible,” Berry said.
That’s not a firm answer, obviously. And there’s no way Berry can project much of anything ahead of a crucial season for the Browns. But Berry’s longer answer about positional value and how general managers with roster authority view budgets and contract values revealed how the Browns view Chubb — and understand his value.
“I think as you look at our sport, it has changed from — let’s call it the 1980s and ’90s — where at that point, a lot of offenses were built on maybe (having) a bell-cow runner,” Berry said. “I think now, unequivocally, the central protagonist in our sport is the quarterback, and as a result, positions that are the quarterback plus positions that are tied to the passing game, the market has dictated that those values have shifted because of their impact on winning.
“I think you see that over time, as the game changes, the game evolves. Now that being said, the rarest thing that you can find is a difference-maker regardless of position, regardless of your organizational philosophy. And now we have (across the league) a defensive tackle that’s making north of $30 million. We have a guard that’s making north of $20 million. We have off-the-ball linebackers that are making $20 million because there are players that break the mold. And for us, when we made our decision at running back (in 2021), we felt like we had a superstar at the position who embodied everything that we wanted within the organization, so we didn’t overthink it. It is Nick Chubb, right?
“So for us, it was a pretty straightforward decision because those difference-makers are hard to find.”
To anyone who’s followed Chubb’s reluctance to either say much or go down on first (or second) contact over the years, it’s no surprise that his answers about his own future included that his focus is on the season ahead and helping Cleveland get back to the playoffs. He said there’s been no talk between his representatives and the Browns to this point about a possible extension.
If you know Chubb, you know he’s genuine when he’s standing up for running backs everywhere but still insinuates he’s more focused on outrunning the Bengals than he is in outrunning Father Time.
“I got another year (on my contract), so, it’s easy for me to say it’s not a big deal,” Chubb said. “But next year it could be me in the same situation. For right now, I do have one more year (and) I’m here, I’m all in. I’m ready to work with my guys.”
Just before the Browns reported for camp, a video of Chubb squatting an absurd amount of weight at his high school popped up on social media. Chubb wouldn’t reveal how much weight was on the bar in the video, but he did say it was a personal best. That kind of video has become sort of a summer tradition, and kind of a subtle message of readiness from Chubb, who played in all 17 games last season and has only missed seven in his career.
“I think Nick has shown himself to be durable for us,” Berry said. “Look, I think you all see on social media how well he takes care of his body, obviously, and he’s a consummate professional. We’re hopeful that he can play as long as possible.
“I always tell Nick, whenever that (video) comes out, I shoot him a text like, ‘Nick. This is always my favorite social media clip of the offseason and the most anxiety-producing one as well.’ He’s a freak of nature.”
I'm simply following trends and considering the huge investment the Browns have made in their passing game. I've watched how teams have handled their RB investments after they switched over to making such investments in the passing game and employing such a strategy. Mine too is just an opinion. My opinion however is based on the actual trends and events happening within the NFL. And it's also my opinion that if watson doesn't came back to performing as he did in Houston they will keep Chubb. I mean who knows who is right here, correct?
However, the Vikings and the Giants are just the latest to have joined other teams in employing that strategy. I just find this ongoing devaluation of the RB position too much to ignore. The fact that the franchise number for RB's is on the decline isn't a fluke.
But I certainly agree with you in terms of Elliot. His production didn't justify the cost. The Browns are very driven by analytics as are many teams these days. I'm sure the analytics will come into play here.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
I think a clear compromise between the league and RBs may be some sort of incentive based happy medium. As long as they continue to be productive and available, then maybe they can get increased pay BEFORE a contract is ending
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
My hope is Nick Chubb retires as a Brown. And that he never wears another uniform.
He is all you can ask for in a player. I had my grandson listen to this interview. Because no matter what you do. You have to set your own standard of excellence. Your drive must come from within.
I have never owned a jersey but I would be proud to wear his number.
His answer to RC about the difference between talent and winning talent really struck a chord. The players have to set the standard and not allow anyone to not play to that standard.
I once coached a State Championship team in baseball. The only way to get those players off the practice field was to turn off the lights.
Players have to push each other because peer pressure is hard to run from.
I want so badly for the Browns to win the championship. I want Nick's vision to come true. I want him to see the fans choke the city with love for the team. That parade to be monumental.
I think that's most of our hopes too. He should be a Brown until retirement. He's everything you want in a player
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
There are folks out there in Fandom that actually think it's a good idea to trade him while he's still productive. Not Me
You could argue that would be a good move if the roster was in need of a rebuild and/if their current window was about to close. Browns have been in a perpetual rebuild for so long it's hard for me to make fun of these knee jerk reactions that have become habitual.
There is no level of sucking we haven't seen; in fact, I'm pretty sure we hold the patents on a few levels of sucking NOBODY had seen until the past few years.
NO NO NO NICK CHUBB Should RETIRE a CLEVELAND BROWN !!!
John 3:16 Jesus said "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life."
watching our backups makes you really appreciate him. Just the total package
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
I think it will be a banner year for him too provided he gets the carries to make that happen. The off season moves show the Browns are going to be a more pass heavy offense. How much more of a pass heavy offense I'm not sure. Then we have to consider that watson will also be running the ball. I think we may see a large dose of the run/pass option. That would put Chubb in the position of a blocker for watson in some of those cases.
Given the right circumstances Chubb could certainly have a banner year. (I know people hate to see the word Banner on here)
But in order for that to happen will be dependent on the play calling and watson to some degree. If Chubb does have a banner year it will solidify his value to the Browns moving forward. If the O succeeds without Cubb having a banner year that value becomes somewhat more suspect.
I also think one must consider that opposing teams will most likely have a spy player in the middle to protect against watson running the ball. That spy will also be there when Chubb runs the ball. But that in and of itself shouldn't impact a RB like Chubb much.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
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Every bit of this, yes.![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/small-gator-chomp.gif)
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