DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Election Day is 3 Weeks Tomorrow

Sorry pal. Saying an election was stolen is not insurrection or incitement thereto

A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market
Four Polymarket accounts have systematically placed frequent wagers on a Trump election victory
By
Alexander Osipovich
Follow
Updated Oct. 18, 2024 10:21 am ET



Play video: WSJ Poll Shows Tied Battle for Swing States, Trump Leads on Top Issues
A new Wall Street Journal poll shows voters in battleground states see former President Donald Trump as better equipped to handle top issues, but he remains virtually tied with Vice President Kamala Harris. Photo: Madeline Marshall
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in the polls. But in one popular betting market, the odds have skewed heavily in Trump’s favor, raising questions about a recent flurry of wagers and who is behind them.

Over the past two weeks, the chances of a Trump victory in the November election have surged on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market. Its bettors were giving Trump a 62% chance of winning on Thursday, while Harris’s chances were 38%. The candidates were in a dead heat at the start of October.

Trump’s gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters, and they have been followed by the odds shifting in Trump’s favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk flagged Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million X followers on Oct. 6, praising the concept of betting markets. “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” Musk posted.

But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.

“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that examined the accounts.


The big bets on Trump aren’t necessarily nefarious. Some observers have suggested that they were simply placed by a large bettor convinced that Trump will win and looking for a big payday. Others, however, see the bets as an influence campaign designed to fuel social-media buzz for the former president.

Polymarket is investigating the activity in its presidential-election markets with the assistance of outside experts, a person familiar with the matter said.

Prediction markets allow bettors to wager on various future events, with prices that reflect how the market assesses the probabilities of different outcomes. Although prediction markets have a mixed record of forecasting election results, Polymarket has scored some recent successes, such as its users’ early bets that President Biden would drop out of the race.

Polymarket users place bets using stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency for which each coin is worth $1. For each contract purchased—an answer to a yes or no question such as “Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election?”—users get $1 if their bet turns out to be correct, and nothing if they were wrong. They can also sell contracts without waiting for the question to be resolved, allowing them to exit a bet for a profit or a loss.

The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.


The chances of a victory by Donald Trump have surged on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
The accounts have plowed most of their money into straightforward bets on Trump’s winning the presidency, but they have also put millions of dollars into bets that he will win such swing states as Pennsylvania, as well as long-shot bets on Trump’s winning the popular vote—smaller side markets also available on Polymarket.

Even many die-hard Trump fans consider it unlikely that he will win the majority of votes cast. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020, winning the presidency in 2016 by capturing enough swing states to triumph in the Electoral College.

Adam Cochran, a veteran crypto investor who has monitored the activity on Polymarket, said the betting spree appears to be an attempt to generate a sense of momentum for Trump going into Election Day. If Trump loses, his favorable odds in the betting markets could bolster arguments that the election was stolen from him, said Cochran, who described himself as a right-of-center voter backing Harris.


While $30 millon might seem costly, it is sufficient to swing the odds on Polymarket and not a large outlay for a deep-pocketed individual seeking to influence the election, added Cochran, managing partner of the venture-capital firm Cinneamhain Ventures.


“It is by far the most efficient political advertising one can buy,” Cochran said.

Harry Crane, a professor of statistics at Rutgers University, said that other betting markets, such as the U.K.’s Betfair, also show Trump with an edge in the race. There are plausible reasons why bettors might favor Trump, and it is common for a few big accounts on betting markets to swing the odds with their wagers, according to Crane.

“Purchasing a large number of shares on one outcome does not require any ulterior motive or effort to manipulate the market,” Crane said.


The betting spree has echoes of the “Romney Whale,” an unknown trader who placed a flurry of bets on a Mitt Romney victory during the closing weeks of the 2012 election, using Intrade, a now-defunct prediction market. The trader lost nearly $7 million, according to a 2015 paper by a pair of economists from Microsoft and Barnard College. The authors concluded that the bets had characteristics of manipulation, potentially aimed at shaping public perceptions.

Rajiv Sethi, one of the paper’s co-authors, said the recent bets on Polymarket followed a similar pattern: steady accumulation of a huge wager that gradually lifted Trump’s chances of success. The simplest explanation is a giant bettor who expects Trump to win—but the possibility of manipulation can’t be ruled out, according to Sethi, a professor at Barnard.

“If I were trying to manipulate a market, this is exactly how I would do it,” Sethi said.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/betting-election-pro-trump-ad74aa71

How so?

I've already added in the wrinkle that Republicans have drawn the same conclusion. I'll even add in another one: how long did it take Trump to finally address the mob? Also, when he addressed the mob, his words were:



“I know your pain, I know you’re hurt. We had an election that was stolen from us. It was a landslide election and everyone knows it, especially the other side. But you have to go home now. We have to have peace. We have to have law and order. We have to respect our great people in law and order,” Trump posted on Twitter. “We don’t want anybody hurt. It’s a very tough period of time. There’s never been a time like this, where such a thing happened, where they could take it away from all of us. From me, from you, from our country. This was a fraudulent election, but we can’t play into the hands of these people. We have to have peace. So go home. We love you, you’re very special. We’ve seen what happens, you see the way others are treated that are so bad and so evil. I know you how feel. But go home, and go home in peace.”

Not exactly a rebuke, is it? To throw in that softball speech after the mob had already failed...in addition to the crazy length of time it took him to actually do something...with just about everyone - including Pence - pleading for his help.

Also, you referred to primaries in your earlier post. Here is a direct excerpt from the transcript of his January 6 speech:

"And we fight. We fight like hell. And if you don't fight like hell, you're not going to have a country anymore." I don't see a reference to primaries.

Over 100 police officers were assaulted. And trump plans to pardon them. Trump said, "If you don't fight like hell you won't have a country anymore". I think you like to include the parts of the speech that fit your narrative and ignore the rest of it. And what about all the guests he asked to speak there and what they were saying? Your narrative is easy to see through.

No it's not insurrection. It's a lie. It's ignorant.

Go to the transcript and read the words before and after “if you don’t fight…”😀

And then they stormed the capital, appointed fake electors and we heard trump in his own words try to pressure the top Georgia election official to change the vote count. And all the while claim it was the democrats who were trying to steal the election.

So the same people who took that quote out of context ( ie lied) told you other things are lies. That’s not a sound argument. 😀

Did Trump tell them to storm the capitol? Yes or no?

Who assaulted a police officer who Trump is trying to pardon? Can you give me a single name?

Did you pull your quotes from an actual transcript.

Since he said he would most likely pardon the rioters from January 6th can you name one who assaulted a police officer he isn't planning to pardon? He made a rather blank statement on those pardons. He called them all "political prisoners". Is that what you call people who assaults police officers?

You know he said those things so why are you lying about it?

Yes

🤣
Save your effort. He doesn't care.

Trump outlines the “fight” plan


1. Unbelievable, what we have to go through. What we have to go through — and you have to get your people to fight. And if they don't fight, we have to primary the hell out of the ones that don't fight. We primary them.
(APPLAUSE)


(APPLAUSE)
2. Now it is up to Congress to confront this egregious assault on our democracy. And after this, we’re going to walk down and I’ll be there with you. We’re going to walk down — (APPLAUSE) — we’re going to walk down. Anyone you want, but I think right here, we’re going to walk down to the Capitol — (APPLAUSE) — and we’re going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women, and we’re probably not going to be cheering so much for some of them. (LAUGHTER) Because you’ll never take back our country with weakness.12 You have to show strength and you have to be strong.

3. We have come to demand that Congress do the right thing and only count the electors who have been lawfully slated. Lawfully slated.

4. Peacefully and patriotically…

————————

As far as your quoted portion, just read the rest of the transcript till the end, where he again states what “fight” means (for the fourth or fifth time, mind you)

If he had read to the end of the speech, which is only 2paragraphs, he would have seen that Trump meant the same thing (when using the word fight), that he meant when using the word it 3-4 times earlier.

Make voices heard to try to get Pence and other Republicans to challenge.

Which Dems have done more than once.

2016 and Gore.

So explain the fake electors. Explain the plan to have Pence not perform his duty. Explain why Trump is the only PoTUS never to have conceded. Explain why, off the back of Trumps words, the mob were chanting "hang Mike pence". Explain the extraordinary delay in Trump telling his mob to stand down and stop dping what they were doing...... Ohhh that's right. You can't.

Do you know what the term "dog whistle" means in context to politicians and leaders giving speeches or interviews? All that sprinkling of 'peaceful' in his speech doesn't eraze the rhetoric before the event and the whipping up the stoopid people armed with everything from firearms to zip ties.

He wanted the standing electors to be challenged, I suppose

Dog whistle. What dog whistle? Where he said “ get your people (senators and VP) to fight?

Did Trump say anything about Hanging Pence?

Media and Dems lied. Trump did not call for violence or insurrection he called for fighting using the democratic process. “ if they don’t fight, primary them”

Bottom line. Dems and their right arm, the media, lied.

“If they don’t fight, primary them”

Doesn’t sound violent or a call to hanging. Sounds like using the Democratic process.

Which is why Dems deliberately partial quoted him many times.

The DNC is the real threat to Democracy.

There's 10k comedians that are out of work and you're on here trying to be funny.....

He never said that. Good lord the gymnastics... you're putting Simone Biles to shame.

It's something. Saying the Dems are a threat to Democracy. And don't get me wrong, I think they suck for the most part. So then when you bring up McConnell's words, it's "I don't care."

:shrug:

Do The Felon next!! Then The Liars!! We already voted. Replace the Public Enemies.

I don’t give a damn about the fake polls being fed to MAGA right now. Anybody with a brain can see that the dem ticket is going to win.

He said “ you have to get your people to fight, and if they don’t, you primary the —— out of them.”

You don’t know this because why?

Did you read the part where I said WHY I don’t care, or did you read the partial quote taken out of context?

I said I don’t care because I read the transcript, (unlike some here who don’t know that Trump said “ if (your people) don’t fight, primary them”. ) So since I know exactly what he said, I don’t need McConnell or anyone else to explain to me what I read. 😀

I could care less about whether a person is Republican or Democrat. I only care if their words are true. It’s not a partisan issue for me.

The House impeachment debate on Wednesday heard a distorted account of President Donald Trump’s remarks to his supporters a week ago when he exhorted them to “fight like hell” before they swarmed the Capitol.

REP. GUY RESCHENTHALER, R-Pa.: “At his rally, President Trump urged attendees to, quote, unquote, peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard. There was no mention of violence, let alone calls to action.”

THE FACTS: Trump’s speech was a call to action — a call to fight and save the country.

“Our country has had enough,” he told those who went on to stage the violent siege of the Capitol.

“We will not take it anymore and that’s what this is all about. To use a favorite term that all of you people really came up with, we will stop the steal.”

Reschenthaler accurately quoted a line from Trump, when the president told supporters “I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.”

But throughout his remarks, Trump spoke of the need to “fight,” to be angry, to stop President-elect Joe Biden from taking office.

— “We fight like hell and if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.”

— “We want to go back, and we want to get this right because we’re going to have somebody in there that should not be in there and our country will be destroyed, and we’re not going to stand for that.”

— “Nobody knows what the hell is going on. There’s never been anything like this. We will not let them silence your voices. We’re not going to let it happen. Not going to let it happen.” The crowd repeatedly chanted “Fight for Trump!” “Thank you,” Trump said.

He assailed “weak,” “pathetic” Republicans who were not standing with him in his push to overturn the election results, and said “there’d be hell all over the country” if Democrats had been robbed of an election win.

“But just remember this,” he went on. “You’re stronger, you’re smarter. You’ve got more going than anybody, and they try and demean everybody having to do with us, and you’re the real people. You’re the people that built this nation. You’re not the people that tore down our nation.”

—"We will not be intimidated into accepting the hoaxes and the lies that we’ve been forced to believe over the past several weeks.”

He told his refuted stories of “ballot harvesting” and thousands of dead people voting.

—"And we got to get rid of the weak congresspeople, the ones that aren’t any good, the Liz Cheneys of the world, we got to get rid of them. We got to get rid of them.”

He perhaps meant challenging Republicans like Rep. Cheney of Wyoming in primaries, telling the crowd “in a year from now, you’re going to start working on Congress.” But he did not say exactly what he meant by getting rid of people.

“So let’s walk down Pennsylvania Avenue,” he concluded after more than an hour.

He didn’t walk, but they did, bearing Trump flags, overwhelming police and occupying the Capitol in an hours-long melee that left five people dead and exposed Trump to the impeachment charge of inciting an insurrection.

https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-trump-us-capitol-remarks-221518bc174f9bc3dd6e108e653ed08d

As Eric Clapton once sang, "That's when I knew you were pretending."

Here’s funny 🤣. The media, Dems, and you seem to think Trump was trying to overthrow Democracy while he was talking about primarying people in future elections. 🤣

Scroll up and read the quotes I posted earlier which outline Trump’s meaning

I gave tyou diredct quiotes from his own mouth and you keep pretending none of that was said by him. Ignoring reality isn't attractive.

I think you would love if that was the only thing that was being done. But it wasn't. And addressing everything else isn't something you wish to do. You know, the one who claims all they care about is honesty.

Fake electors were named in states where trump lost the election. That was orchestrated by his own attorneys. There was the phone call that everyone heard on tape where trump was asking Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to find him enough votes to overturn the Georgia election results.

The picture is clear. That's trying to overthrow the election. That's trying to overthrow democracy. But keep "pretending" that's not what he did. Would you like to address the complete picture or keep pretending those things didn't happen?

Pitdawg. Your list of quotes is explained easily by a few words straight from Trump’s mouth.

“…if they don’t fight, primary the —— out of them”. (Trump-Jan 6)

Why would someone trying to overthrow Democracy talk about primary voting? 🤔

How easily people are fooled by gaslighters. (From BOTH parties. ).

You must be a troll or just believe whatever Trump spin media you are fed - no-where in the Jan 6th speech did Trump talk about "Primarying". There is a quote 'Primary' - I'll quote it below.

And Jan 6th was all about preventing the results of a fair election from being certified. Hence the rally, hence the fake electors, hence all the lies about election fraud with zero proof. You can call that whatever you like - but those are all facts. As are the comments by Pence and Barr and Generals and others closest to Trump that say he's unfit for office.

And ... here's some more about Jan 6th and how Mike Pence prevented Trump from achieving his goal: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/11/pence-jan-6-election-certification-script-00016539

Here's what people as yourself seem to buy into. He talks out both sides of his mouth. He says things that clearly mean one thing and then says something else to cover the tracks of his previous statements.

You still ignore the fake electors and his call to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger that clearly show he was trying to overthrow the election. But somehow I knew you would. Somehow you tend to think if you can get people to look at this topic under a microscope rather than use a telescope you can distract them. That's not going to work unless you actually believe what you're claiming here. If that's the case it works on you.

"And you have to get your people to fight. And if they don't fight, we have to primary the hell out of the ones that don't fight. You primary them. We're going to. We're going to let you know who they are. I can already tell you, frankly."

This is the line that keeps getting partially quoted as reason to believe that it was about democracy .... but the sentence itself - like a lot of what Trump says - makes no sense. Maybe he was weaving and forget to weave!

The ENTIRE transcript is here : https://www.npr.org/2021/02/10/966396848/read-trumps-jan-6-speech-a-key-part-of-impeachment-trial

Thinking people can decide for themselves whether two lines about marching peacefully and 'primary the hell out of the ones that don't fight' undoes the thousands of lines filled with lies, and incorrectly casting doubt about fair elections, officials and results.

Hey rook. People were killed on Jan 6th. They stormed the capitol building armed, egged on by Trump. Trump said he’d be with them but bailed on all of them including you. That’s the facts so choke on it!

At some point we have to realize we are talking to a wall.

Where did Trump say that they should break into the capitol? Please provide source and citation.

Because the media said he incited an insurrection. But his words were “ go down and get your people to fight, and if they don’t, primary them.

That is fighting through the Democratic process.

Yes, and the wall has “if they don’t fight, primary them”.

What kind of “threat to Democracy” insurrectionist talks about primaries? 🤔🤣

And what kind of gaslighting media and politicians deliberately omit that part (and so many others?).

I provided 3-4 quotes of several lines. One person on the other side provided one quote that is fully explained as peaceful one paragraph down

The same people who tell you that the election was not stolen also told you that Trump called neo-nazis fine people. (Another lie)

I’m not saying the election was stolen. I’m saying that if people who lie tell you another person is lying, it doesn’t make for a good argument.