DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Tailgate Forum BCS - My Take On How Things Will Shake Out

I think florida should get the nod but there are going to be unhappy people no matter what.

The way i look at it, if OSU has to play michigan again then they are getting screwed that means that their whole season and head to head game meant nothing.

Excuse me??

The SEC is a very loud conference. They are always talking about how great they are.

OSU will end up playing USC in Arizona next January. USC will defeat UND as the difference will be in their D, especially fast linebackers. No, Michigan should not be playing in the BCS; they had their chance.

I guess the 'experts' are too.....they all agree the SEC was the toughest this year(as it is most years)

You seem to think conference championships lack meaning ....I don't.

Wouldn't you rather have had Florida named the Conference champion during conference play and then enter a 4 team playoff w/Ohio State, Michigan, and USC to determine the national champion?

Look at this with your maize and blue microscope

1. Florida beat nine teams that are projected to play in bowl games. Michigan beat six.



2. Michigan beat five teams that finished the season with losing records. Florida beat two teams with sub-.500 records.



3. Florida's 12 Division I-A opponents had a combined record of 89-57. Michigan's 12 opponents had a combined record of 84-61.



4. Michigan's best win is considered a 27-13 victory over Wisconsin on Sept. 23. The Badgers are 11-1 and have climbed to No. 7 in the AP Top 25 poll, despite having played only one ranked opponent -- the Wolverines -- the entire season.



5. The 12 teams Florida defeated finished the season with 11 combined wins against opponents which were ranked in the AP Top 25 poll at the time the game was played. The opponents Michigan defeated claim just three wins against ranked teams (Notre Dame beat Penn State. Indiana beat Iowa. Vanderbilt beat Georgia. The Nittany Lions, Hawkeyes and Bulldogs, it should be noted, haven't been ranked in seven weeks).



6. The Gators went 3-1 against ranked opponents, beating then-No. 13 Tennessee, No. 9 LSU and No. 8 Arkansas and losing at No. 11 Auburn. The Wolverines went 1-1 against ranked opponents, beating a highly overrated No. 2 Notre Dame team (that lost to Michigan and USC by a combined total of 46 points) and losing at No. 1 Ohio State 42-39 on Nov. 18.



7. The Gators' average margin of victory against Division I-A teams was 13.5 points. They won seven games by 14 points or fewer, six by less than 10. The Wolverines' average margin of victory was 17.3 points. They won six games by 14 points or fewer, two by less than 10.

8. The Gators played Western Carolina, a Division I-AA team, and won by 62 points. The Wolverines played Ball State, which should be a I-AA team, and won by eight.

9. Since the Wolverines last played and lost at Ohio State, the Gators won at Florida State (The Seminoles are 6-6, but rivalry games are tough to win. Just ask USC coach Pete Carroll) and then beat the No. 8 Razorbacks, who defeated then-No. 2 Auburn and No. 13 Tennessee by 17 points each.

10. Michigan didn't win the Big Ten; Florida won the SEC. Winning your conference should be a prerequisite for playing in the national championship.

Those are the facts, spin it however you want to it doesnt change anything.

I say they won by only 8 at home to Ball State.

Well I don't like the whole where they lose argument. If Ohio State and Michigan game played at the begining of the year like Florida and FSU this wouldn't be and argument.

Maybe I am not following you....but Fla and Flawannabe St always play as the last game in Nov after Thanksgiving.


Again.....maybe I am not reading things correctly.

FA.....


It just isnt fair to a team standing next to Michigan (aka florida) to watch them get another chance at their rival when they lost the first game. I really dont care but Michigan lost and is not the Big 10 champion they shouldnt get another crack at OSU FLA has played better teams and has one loss.

Some say Michigan lost by only three on the road at OSU, I say they won by only 8 at home to Ball State.

Before we get to why Florida deserves this, by the thinnest of margins, let's get to whether it is possible. The BCS formula to determine the top two teams in the nation ? and the two bids to the title game Jan. 8 in Glendale, Ariz. ? consists of equal parts coaches poll, Harris poll (a consortium of former coaches, administrators and players and media) and the average of six computer formulas (actually of four ? the high and low are thrown out).

Ohio State (12-0) is No. 1. USC was No. 2, but its 13-9 loss to UCLA eliminates the Trojans from the debate. No other one-loss team, nor unbeaten Boise State, has the resume to contend. It comes down to current No. 3 Michigan and current No. 4 Florida.

BCS expert Jerry Palm, the publisher of CollegeBCS.com, expects the Gators' victory over Arkansas will push them ahead of Michigan in all six computer rankings. If so, Florida will not need to pass Michigan in the two human polls. It just needs to close the gap enough to edge the Wolverines.

"I expect Florida to lead Michigan in computer average," said Palm. "Worst-case scenario is a tie."

"If UF leads Michigan in computers, they do not have to pass Michigan in the polls at all, just get close enough in point margin for the computer strength to matter."

The question is how close. Last week Michigan led Florida by 86 points in the Harris poll and 40 in the coaches' poll. With USC out, those numbers could move dramatically.

"My expectation is Florida has a 2.0 average and UM 3.0 (in the computers)," Palm said. "If that's right, Florida could be within 57 in the Harris poll and 31 in the coaches' poll (and) pass Michigan for No. 2 overall."

Both of those moves are possible and probably reasonable. Michigan's best hope is that it holds off Florida a bit in the computers, creating a tie. If so, then the polls will determine who is No. 2.

Either way, there is going to be no clear determination until the final announcement.

"It's too close to talk about how close it will be," said Palm.

This could come down to a single vote, or a single computer formula criteria; which is why one school is almost assured to be angry with the system.

"We have what we have," Slive said, apparently back in his BCS coordinator role. "If we don't like what we have, then we should look to change it. But we have what we have."

I have seen both Michigan and Florida live and in numerous television games. To definitively claim one team clearly superior is a reach. They are essentially even.

Michigan has a superior quarterback and, as a result, a more well-rounded team. Its defense looked tremendous in every game except Ohio State. Florida is more dangerous, particularly because the Wolverines have nothing like Percy Harvin. Florida also has a strong defense and a knack for making big, game-winning plays.

"We found ways to win games this year," said Gator wide receiver JeMalle Cornelius.

Gun to my head, I'd take Michigan by a point on a neutral field. But who knows?

Statistically, the numbers which mean the most to me favor the Gators, which is what Gator coach Urban Meyer hopes every voter will look at.

"I hope they list the statistics, put it on the table, here is what it is," Meyer said. "Florida belongs."

It is my contention that who you beat is more important than who beat you. If enough poll voters see it the other way, then Michigan's loss at No. 1 means the Wolverines should get a rematch. But if they agree with me, then Florida will make the jump.

Florida is 3-1 vs. the current BCS top 25, with victories over Louisiana State (5), Arkansas (9) and Tennessee (17). Michigan is 2-1, having beaten Wisconsin (7) and Notre Dame (10).

However, both Wisconsin and Notre Dame's lofty rankings come from blasting through an essentially weak schedule. The Badgers didn't defeat a single current BCS top-25 team. Notre Dame's only quality victory is over No. 22 Georgia Tech, which should fall out of the rankings after losing to Wake Forest in the ACC championship game. Meanwhile, LSU and Arkansas have two such victories. Tennessee has one.

The SEC is widely regarded as the toughest in the country, although like the Big Ten, it has few quality non-conference victories. The SEC has just three non-conference victories over BCS top-25 teams. The Big Ten has two.

In terms of losses, Michigan lost at No. 1 Ohio State by three. Florida lost at No. 11 Auburn by 10, although it was essentially four. The Tigers scored on a last-play fumble return while the Gators desperately were trying to score.

The computers have favored Michigan's schedule (although beating Arkansas will help Florida). But the formula is flawed.

College football truly is a have and have-not proposition. Non-BCS league teams rarely defeat a quality team. Essentially all cupcake games are cupcakes, all directionals are created equal. It doesn't matter whether the game is against 9-4 MAC champion Central Michigan (which Michigan beat) or 4-8 Central Florida (which Florida beat).

Statistically they matter. In terms of common sense they don't. The smaller school almost always loses, so what's the difference? The only victories that should count are against the other quality teams.

Florida's strength of schedule is suffering from its ill-advised decision to schedule 2-9 Western Carolina, a last-place Division I-AA team it scrambled to add when the NCAA expanded the schedule to a 12th game. That and the fall of traditional powerhouse rival Florida State (6-6) hurts the Gators.

But a team should not get more credit for beating a completely overmatched team rather than just a mostly overmatched one. Those easy victories should count the same.

The fact is that Florida did everything it could outside of running the table. The Gators beat six teams that were ranked at kickoff, survived the toughest week-in, week-out grind in the college game and put a stamp on it with a dramatic victory here against another dangerous opponent.

This ridiculous championship system forces these impossible comparisons, forces perceptions and computers and biases over what criteria is most important to take the place of what happens on the field. But as Slive said, at this point that's the system, no matter how bad it is.

So on the merits I believe are most important ? more victories over clearly strong competition ? Florida deserves its shot at Ohio State.

Whether the official BCS announcement Sunday agrees remains to be seen. The only certainty in this sport is uncertainty.


Dan Wetzel is Yahoo! Sports' national columnist. Send Dan a question or comment for potential use in a future column or webcast.

because by that logic Ohio State would only beat Ball St by 11 since they could only beat Michigan by 3

I just want a fair match up. What happens when Ohio State beats Michigan for the second time in a row? Everyone will say, ohhhh Florida should have been in there, not Michigan.



Michigan had their chance. Their National Championship game was 2 weeks ago, and they lost. It's unfortunate that the BCS set up is crap, but the fairest game is Ohio State vs. Florida. I just don't think it's right to throw Michigan a second chance without allowing another team a first chance.

It is too disruptive to the main process of a University / College.. and that's providing an education to the people that pay for it.

So,...I'm hoping for Florida,...the Rematch is not good for college football,...in my opinion the controversy level will be lower. The Rematch awards a loser for losing,...that's just not right.

Winner winner chicken dinner.


Looking at the numbers it can be said that Florida & U of M are even. Consider that Michigan had a shot and it is clear that florida should get a shot. I truly think that if it goes to U of M that the rivalry game will be tarnished forever.

Anyhow, tarnishing The Game and its meaning/history is probably another one of my underlying fears....