|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 17,850
Legend
|
Legend
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 17,850 |
Shaun Hill and Kyle Orton (along with Tom Brady) are the best example this season of lower level QBs.
But, even if the 30% figure is correct....my guess is that it is infinitely better than the odds after the first round.
I agree with the general sentiment going on here though...we need to build this team before we throw a new "franchise" QB into the mix.
#gmstrong
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 6,160
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 6,160 |
Because you can't follow the draft chart when dealing with the kind of contract a top 5 pick costs. You almost have to take less compensation just to move out of that slot.
What? , the Jets got a discount..they didn't pay enough to leapfrog like that and just give up a second and for a franchise-type QB?
Heck they got off virtually free..I've seen teams pay more than that for moves like that.
Go look at see what that move should have cost them..it's over a 800pt move..which is more than one second rounder..and the chart has nothing to do with the contract costs.
The chart establishes trade values..not contracts.
Where in the world did you get that from? Brown to the Bone : I guess if you ignore the FACT that the target was Mack, and the Browns would have or could have taken him at #17 instead of where they did and not gottin the added picks then I can see where you would be mad over the lost value.
Again..what are you guys thinking??
Ignore that Mack was the target..? What the heck does that have to do with getting fair compensation from the teams that traded with us?
The person targeted is not in the equation it's the lower draft picks they accepted ..so what are you saying?
"Oh well we're wanting Alex Mack who's only a center and we know we're taking him higher than he should here but we'll take a 6th rounder to be nice and fair"..GMAB..
Duuuhhh, obviously someone was the target..and I'm not mad , I'm pointing out they didn't get enough for the deals..why is that difficult for you two to understand? 
Last edited by Attack Dawg; 10/14/09 01:23 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,276 Likes: 2
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,276 Likes: 2 |
Quote:
What the heck does that have to do with getting fair compensation from the teams that traded with us?
BINGO!!!! We got low Low LOW! compensation imo.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 17,850
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 17,850 |
Quote:
Quote:
What the heck does that have to do with getting fair compensation from the teams that traded with us?
BINGO!!!! We got low Low LOW! compensation imo.
For the 2 trade backs that we got from #17 to #21...would you have been happier staying at #17 and taking Mack? sometimes when noone is looking to trade up that hard, you accept less than full value so that you get SOMETHING.......something > nothing.
Similar can be said for #5....sure, we heard rumors about Washington and Denver, but it's awfully convenient that we never heard about any possible compensation packages.....they could have been lowballing us as well because teams did NOT want to trade up.
so again, would you have rather we just sat there at #5 and taken Sanchez (who would be getting killed right now on) because noone was willing to matchup points on an outdated draft chart and pay top $$$ to us and the draft pick?
sometimes you have a bad hand (weak draft, high pick) and you make the most of it. that's what I think the goal was and I think it was accomplished reasonably well from the #5 spot
#gmstrong
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,165
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,165 |
Peyton Manning (#1 overall) Carson Palmer (#1 overall) Eli Manning (#1 Overall) Matt Ryan (#3 overall) Phillip Rivers (#4 overall) Ben Roethlisberger (#11 overall) Jay Cutler (#11 overall) Acquired by tradeAaron Rogers (#24 overall) Drew Brees (#32 overall) Acquired via FA Brett Favre (#33 overall) Acquired via FAMatt Schaub (#90 overall) Acquired via trade And in the same time frame that these "winners" were drafted, just how many 1st round QB's were busts? 1 16 Dan McGwire QB San Diego State Seattle Seahawks  1 24 Todd Marinovich QB USC Los Angeles Raiders 2 33 Brett Favre QB Southern Mississippi Atlanta Falcons  2 34 Browning Nagle QB Louisville New York Jets 1 6 David Klingler QB Houston Cincinnati Bengals 1 25 Tommy Maddox QB UCLA Denver Broncos 2 40 Matt Blundin QB Virginia Kansas City Chiefs 2 46 Tony Sacca QB Penn State Phoenix Cardinals 1 1 Drew Bledsoe QB Washington State New England Patriots 1 2 Rick Mirer QB Notre Dame Seattle Seahawks 1 3 Heath Shuler QB Tennessee Washington Redskins 1 6 Trent Dilfer QB Fresno State Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 3 Steve McNair QB Alcorn State Houston Oilers 1 5 Kerry Collins QB Penn State Carolina Panthers struggled for many years 2 45 Todd Collins QB Michigan Buffalo Bills 2 60 Kordell Stewart QB Colorado Pittsburgh Steelers 2 42 Tony Banks QB Michigan State St. Louis Rams 1 26 Jim Druckenmiller QB Virginia Tech San Franco 49ers 2 42 Jake Plummer QB Arizona State Arizona Cardinals 1 1 Peyton Manning QB Tennessee Indianapolis Colts 1 2 Ryan Leaf QB Washington State San Diego Chargers 2 60 Charlie Batch QB Eastern Michigan Detroit Lions 1 1 Tim Couch QB Kentucky Cleveland Browns 1 2 Donovan McNabb QB Syracuse Philadelphia Eagles 1 3 Akili Smith QB Oregon Cincinnati Bengals 1 11 Daunte Culpepper QB Central Florida Minnesota Vikings 1 12 Cade McNown QB UCLA Chicago Bears 2 50 Shaun King QB Tulane Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 18 Chad Pennington QB Marshall New York Jets 1 1 Michael Vick QB Virginia Tech Atlanta Falcons 2 32 Drew Brees QB Purdue San Diego Chargers 2 53 Quincy Carter QB Georgia Dallas Cowboys 2 59 Marques Tuiasosopo QB Washington Oakland Raiders 1 David Carr QB Fresno State Houston Texans 1 3 Joey Harrington QB Oregon Detroit Lions 1 32 Patrick Ramsey QB Tulane Washington Redskins 1 1 Carson Palmer QB USC Cincinnati Bengals 1 7 Byron Leftwich QB Marshall Jacksonville Jaguars 1 19 Kyle Boller QB California Baltimore Ravens 1 22 Rex Grossman QB Florida Chicago Bears 1 1 Eli Manning QB Mississippi San Diego Chargers 1 4 Philip Rivers QB North Carolina State New York Giants 1 11 Ben Roethlisberger QB Miami (Ohio) Pittsburgh Steelers 1 22 J.P. Losman QB Tulane Buffalo Bills 1 1 Alex Smith QB Utah San Francisco 49ers 1 24 Aaron Rodgers QB California Green Bay Packers 1 25 Jason Campbell QB Auburn Washington Redskins 1 3 Vince Young QB Texas Tennessee Titans 1 10 Matt Leinart QB USC Arizona Cardinals 1 11 Jay Cutler QB Vanderbilt Denver Broncos 2 49 Kellen Clemens QB Oregon New York Jets 2 64 Tarvaris Jackson QB Alabama State Minnesota Vikings 1 1 JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State Oakland Raiders 1 22 Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame Cleveland Browns 2 36 Kevin Kolb QB Houston Philadelphia Eagles 2 40 John Beck QB Brigham Young Miami Dolphins 2 43 Drew Stanton QB Michigan State Detroit Lions 1 3 Matt Ryan QB Boston College Atlanta Falcons 1 18 Joe Flacco QB Delaware Baltimore Ravens 2 56 Brian Brohm QB Louisville Green Bay Packers 2 57 Chad Henne QB Michigan Miami Dolphins
Throwing that kind of money at a rookie that will just as likely be a bust is crazy. Safest bet is to acquire a QB through FA or trade.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 2,044
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 2,044 |
nice work. to add to that, players like eli, schaub, brees, and even peyton were not immediate contributers.
we don't even need to get into who eli has looked like. had he not been a 1st overall pick...
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 42,848 Likes: 159
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 42,848 Likes: 159 |
WOW,, looks a lot worse when you see it in print.... it's almost like hitting your head against,,, well, you know 
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,276 Likes: 2
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,276 Likes: 2 |
I liked the move down...just thought maybe....And I say that with a grain of salt, we could have gotten a better pick , jmho.say in the high 2nd.?
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,065
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,065 |
The point is not that a lot of players bust out of the position.....it's that if you want a top tier guy, you have to get him in the draft. Throwing Favre in as a "FA acquisition" is silly at this point. Unless you want to say the Michael Jordan with the Wizards was still the same player?  The only way you're going to get one in free agency is if there's a really unique situation......for example, Brees hurting his shoulder in a contract year AND the Chargers having Rivers.....or Atlanta taking a flyer on Shaub, having Vick get hurt and then someone else mortgaging the farm on a gamble to get him (based on a few starts). You just can't count on things like that happening. It's a stroke of luck more than anything. You're never going to get a good young QB in a trade unless someone is backed in to a corner (Cutler) or they're coming off an injury. Given how rare either situation is, if you want one, you draft one. That concept is not going to change. Why? Because QB's are so valuable. Don't think so, just look at our division. No one wants to look at the bust list but the fact of the matter is, if you want a Peyton Manning, you're most likely not going to find one outside the 1st round.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 4,458 Likes: 1
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 4,458 Likes: 1 |
Favre was a FA acquisition though; wasn't he? 
I wish to wash my Irish wristwatch......
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 8,704
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 8,704 |
No, it was a trade. (Assuming you're talking about the Atlanta to Green Bay move).
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 17,284
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 17,284 |
Falcons traded him to Green Bay
Green Bay traded him to Jets
Jets released him
Vikings signed him
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,065
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,065 |
Surely older / veteran guys will bounce around at the end of their career....that wasn't the point. Favre was still drafted in the 1st 35 picks. The post was to highlight where in the draft the best QB's were taken.
While there's a rare occasion when one gets traded or let go because of injury, if you want a good signal caller you better draft one early. I mean, save Brady, where have the best QB's been drafted in the past 20 years? It's not hard to do the math.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 172
2nd String
|
|
2nd String
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 172 |
Quote:
Quote:
"The draft is the equalizer in the NFL,'' said Kokinis. "We've got to make those [2010] picks work.''
This makes me wonder if he thinks he already blew the 2009 Draft,....
How do you come to that conclusion? Other than looking for anything negative in what anyone says.
All Kokinis is saying is, we have to take full advantage of the 11 picks in the draft. Nothing more than that. there's no underlining meaning there. Your just assuming he's talking about something other than what he's taking about. You build through the draft. You can get good really fast if you can hit on a few players in one draft. With 11 picks. If we only hit on 5, that's a big improvement if the players succeed. That's been the problem. We couldn't seem to do anything right in past drafts. In order for this team to make up for lost time. There is going to be a TON of pressure on this front office to hit big in this draft. 11 picks is a lot. I feel that they need to use all of them. Don't trade any of them away for the can't miss player. This team is in desperate need of good quality football player(s).
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 9,149
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 9,149 |
Dang dude,...I used the words "wonder" and "if." Do you really think we need to "hit" in this next draft ? Wow, I feel so relieved,...
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 4,458 Likes: 1
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 4,458 Likes: 1 |
I actually like what Mangini and Kokinis are doing. Seems like they are trying to build a solid, gritty football team. This is exactly what we need to win in Cleveland. This is not a team that needs a Braylon Edwards or Kellen Winslow. We need a strong, hard-working, blue-collar type football team that isn't always pretty but gets the job done. With that said, I like this past draft, and with the next few years I believe that Mangini and Kokinis will build a great foundation for years and years of successful football. What fans need to do is let these guys do their thing. They need at least 4-5 years. Lerner had better not blow this thing up after just a few years. 
I wish to wash my Irish wristwatch......
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,165
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,165 |
First, if you don't like Favre as a FA (this year) then realize that he was traded from Atlanta to the Packers early in his career. Quote:
While there's a rare occasion when one gets traded or let go because of injury, if you want a good signal caller you better draft one early. I mean, save Brady, where have the best QB's been drafted in the past 20 years? It's not hard to do the math.
Almost half the "winners" on your list got to their current team through FA or trades. Why in the world would a team that needs help (and cap space to sign help) gamble it all on one unproven rookie?
If you want a list of top tier QB's that weren't drafted in rounds 1 or 2 all you have to do is look. Warner, Garcia, & Brady, are an easy start. I'm sure more can quickly be added to that list.
The point though, is that even the guys that ARE drafted in the first rounds can be acquired. How many of the QB's drafted in the second round over the past six years could be acquired affordably (both dollars and trade comp)?
MOST.
Gambling everything on a rookie is far too risky and may handcuff you cap-wise even if you're lucky enough for it to work out.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 9,149
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 9,149 |
The jury is still out on their first draft. I like what I see so far. It does take time.
I loved picking Mack. Robo is still a question mark,...but he needs playing time. I've said before, I did not know either of the two LB'ers, but they seem to be earning contributory participation awards. Too bad Davis got hurt--he was a steal. Francies, I would start at safety tomorrow, all considerations otherwise being met. He is a hitter.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 786 Likes: 5
All Pro
|
|
All Pro
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 786 Likes: 5 |
Whats wrong with Billick and others on here with that line of thinking is this.......Say all 32 teams buy into that thinking or within a few years or so and you have a few years where most all the Qbs are taken in the 2nd round like they was prior in the first round. Then one could then say (and be accurate) that the odds are 30/70 when drafting a Qb in the 2nd round. Then you continue along that line of thinking and sooner than later you have it all in the 3rd round....then the 4th.....and the 30/70 thinking will continue all the way down draft class and be correct. Its just not a sound way to think even though the math supports it. Kinda like statistics or studies show that red vehicles are the most wrecked cars out of all the different colors out there. The statement is true!!! So you quit making red cars.....then the next color is the most wrecked....you quit making that color and then the 3rd color is the most wrecked......and continue down a pattern that the math supports but isn't sound thinking. Get my drift?
You dont have to win every game just the next one!
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 9,149
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 9,149 |
I never did buy into the red car thing either,...but my pride and joy 1977 Maverick was fire engine, and some broad backed right into it,.... And the restoration of my 1964 Fairlane continues (catch the year,...??) in fire engine red,.....
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,165
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,165 |
Quote:
Get my drift?
I have to honest, I have absolutely no idea what you were trying to point out 
I do know that if you really really really are positve that you can only win with a guy drafted in the first two rounds then you should acquire them through FA or trade. Here's the "high picks" from the last few years you can have:
1 18 Chad Pennington QB Miami acquired through FA
1 1 Michael Vick QB Eagles through FA
2 53 Quincy Carter QB FA
2 59 Marques Tuiasosopo QB
1 David Carr QB Giant acquired through FA
1 3 Joey Harrington QB FA?
1 32 Patrick Ramsey QB FA?
1 7 Byron Leftwich QB TB through FA
1 19 Kyle Boller QB Rams through FA
1 22 Rex Grossman QB not sure where he is
1 22 J.P. Losman QB
1 1 Alex Smith QB
1 25 Jason Campbell QB About to become an FA
1 3 Vince Young QB benched
1 10 Matt Leinart QB benched
2 49 Kellen Clemens QB back up behind the #5 pick
2 64 Tarvaris Jackson QB back up to a FA
The vast majority of these guys have been available in FA or trades. The guys that stay put are the anomally.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 172
2nd String
|
|
2nd String
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 172 |
Quote:
Dang dude,...I used the words "wonder" and "if."
Do you really think we need to "hit" in this next draft ? Wow, I feel so relieved,...
Like I said. Your reading way too much into things. I doubt he's wondering if he blew the draft.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,165
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,165 |
Between 2000 and 2006 there were 24 QB's selected in the first or second round.
19 of the 24 have switched teams through FA or trade or are back ups on their team.
I left out the drafts since 2007 since they haven't had enough time to sort themselves out yet.
19 of 24.
So the chances of "hitting" are 5 in 24 or about 20%.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 172
2nd String
|
|
2nd String
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 172 |
Quote:
Between 2000 and 2006 there were 24 QB's selected in the first or second round.
19 of the 24 have switched teams through FA or trade or are back ups on their team.
I left out the drafts since 2007 since they haven't had enough time to sort themselves out yet.
19 of 24.
So the chances of "hitting" are 5 in 24 or about 20%.
Makes you realize how much luck is involved in the draft.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,399 Likes: 280
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,399 Likes: 280 |
Quote:
How many of the QB's drafted in the second round over the past six years could be acquired affordably (both dollars and trade comp)?
MOST.
The better question might be, how many of them would we want. Here is a list of all 2nd and 3rd round QBs back to 2003... Aside from Matt Schaub, who has already been traded and is on his second contract (and by the way is sort of injury stung)... which ones would be an honest upgrade?
2008
2-Chad Henne
3-None
2007
2-Kevin Kolb
2-John Beck
2-Drew Stanton
3-Trent Edwards
2006
2-Kellen Clemens
2-Tarvaris Jackson
3-Charlie Whitehurst
3-Brodie Croyle
2005
2-None
3-Charlie Frye
3-Andrew Walter
3-David Greene
2004
2-None
3-Matt Schaub
2003
2-None
3-Dave Ragone
3-Chris Simms
yebat' Putin
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 42,848 Likes: 159
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 42,848 Likes: 159 |
Quote:
Makes you realize how much luck is involved in the draft.
I am not going to look for it, but I have to ask, has what would be considered an excellent GM ever picked a couple of losers before they got a winner... I can think of maybe Ozzie Newsome.. but who else..
I guess even GM's that are considered solid can make mistakes..
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 172
2nd String
|
|
2nd String
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 172 |
Quote:
Quote:
How many of the QB's drafted in the second round over the past six years could be acquired affordably (both dollars and trade comp)?
MOST.
The better question might be, how many of them would we want. Here is a list of all 2nd and 3rd round QBs back to 2003... Aside from Matt Schaub, who has already been traded and is on his second contract (and by the way is sort of injury stung)... which ones would be an honest upgrade?
2008
2-Chad Henne
3-None
2007
2-Kevin Kolb
2-John Beck
2-Drew Stanton
3-Trent Edwards
2006
2-Kellen Clemens
2-Tarvaris Jackson
3-Charlie Whitehurst
3-Brodie Croyle
2005
2-None
3-Charlie Frye
3-Andrew Walter
3-David Greene
2004
2-None
3-Matt Schaub
2003
2-None
3-Dave Ragone
3-Chris Simms
None really. But Kolb and Henne are showing some signs of promise.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 786 Likes: 5
All Pro
|
|
All Pro
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 786 Likes: 5 |
Quote:
Makes you realize how much luck is involved in the draft.
Exactly.....thats why people will always pick who they feel like fills there needs and that point in the draft. ITS ALL A CRAP SHOOT!!!!!
Gift - You might have read my post to fast or just isn't comprehending it yet (or i didn't explain myself well) but the 30/70 that Billick was talking about was that 30% of the 1st round Qbs pan out. That way of thinking is a moot point even if the math is true. If most all 32 teams start drafting the qbs in the 2nd round lets say instead of the 1st, then the stats will be the same that "30% of the qbs taken in the 2nd round pan out....and on and on.
Hope that helps.
You dont have to win every game just the next one!
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 2,044
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 2,044 |
i think you missed his point. it's not a statistical thing that is the problem, it's that the reason these players fail is because they go into poor situations. if you're drafting in the top 5, unless you traded up, your team is pretty bad. if you take a qb in the 1st round, unless you made some great other moves, that qb is more likely than not, screwed.
look at flacco and ryan. you can point to their early success but i can point to the emergence of michael turner and roddy white as well as the run by committee of mcgahee, rice, and mclain in addition to cam cameron as the OC.
if we were to draft a 1st round rookie, and put all that money into a rookie again, we had better have other pieces in place first and if we're gonna do that, we may as well go the more affordable and low-risk route of keeping one of our current qbs or signing for a vet.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 5,109
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 5,109 |
I don't buy the luck theory. If it was "luck" how come the Pats, Steelers, and Ravens rarely miss on draft picks. How do the Raiders, Browns, and Lions almost always miss?
It's a combination of both scouting and coaching. Both are needed.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,165
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,165 |
Because when the Pats, Steelers, and Ravens miss on a first round pick they only suffer the financial consequences of a high second round pick.
They avoid the "Top 10" draft positions like the plague and never get financially handcuffed to one guy.
In my book, that's one of the biggest success stories of this year's Browns draft. We didn't mortgage the future on one guy.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 9,149
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 9,149 |
Quote:
i think you missed his point. it's not a statistical thing that is the problem, it's that the reason these players fail is because they go into poor situations. if you're drafting in the top 5, unless you traded up, your team is pretty bad. if you take a qb in the 1st round, unless you made some great other moves, that qb is more likely than not, screwed.
look at flacco and ryan. you can point to their early success but i can point to the emergence of michael turner and roddy white as well as the run by committee of mcgahee, rice, and mclain in addition to cam cameron as the OC.
if we were to draft a 1st round rookie, and put all that money into a rookie again, we had better have other pieces in place first and if we're gonna do that, we may as well go the more affordable and low-risk route of keeping one of our current qbs or signing for a vet.
Awesome point,...
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 830
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 830 |
Yep, put Adrian Peterson on the Raiders and he would probably be called a bust right now. Put Brady Quinn with the Vikings and he probably wouldnt have been Benched after 2 1/2 games. The situation your going into is a huge factor.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss...
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,656 Likes: 5
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,656 Likes: 5 |
Quote:
that said, like brian billick said recently, the success rate of a qb in the first round is 30/70, with 70% of them failing. it's more than just a matter of drafting a qb in the 1st round. it's circumstance. we don't have enough pieces where a 1st round qb will be the difference next year. that's why it'd be safer to either keep a qb we have now or sign a vet and go through next season.
I'd be curious to know the success rate of QBs drafted in rds 2-4. Actually, what does he consider "success rate"? anyway?
I have to agree that I'd say drafting a QB in round 1 next year doesn't sound like a good proposition considering the situation this team is in with its needs. That being said, suppose we fill several holes with solid free agents, draft a QB with our first, and still have 9+ draft choices to fill the other holes. Then you get your QB and can afford to let him sit for the first year, while your fill-in (DA, BQ, or some other guy) leads the team.
There may be people who have more talent than you, but there's no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do.
-Derek Jeter
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,399 Likes: 280
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,399 Likes: 280 |
Quote:
None really. But Kolb and Henne are showing some signs of promise.
And considering that Pennington and McNabb are both getting up there and often injured.. I doubt either of them are available, right?
yebat' Putin
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 17,850
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 17,850 |
all fair points....and good to see....
here are the starters, what round they were drafted and if they are on their original team:
NE Brady - 6th (original team)
BUF Edwards - 3rd (original team)
NYJ Sanchez - 1st (original team)
MIA Henne - 2nd (original team)
CLE Anderson - 6th (acquired via waivers/FA)
PIT Roethlisburger - 1st (original team)
BAL Flacco - 1st (original team)
CIN Palmer - 1st (original team)
SD Rivers - 1st (original team)
DEN Orton - 4th (acquired via trade)
KC Cassel - 7th (acquired via trade)
OAK Russell - 1st (original team)
INDY Manning - 1st (original team)
HOU Schaub - 3rd (acquired via trade)
JAX Garrard - 4th (original team)
TEN Collins - 1st (acquired via FA)
-------------------------------
NYG Manning - 1st (original team)
DAL Romo - UDFA (original team)
PHI McNabb - 1st (original team)
WAS Campbell - 1st (original team)
CHI Cutler - 1st (acquired via trade)
GB Rodgers - 1st (original team)
MIN Favre - 2nd (acquired via FA)
DET Stafford - 1st (original team)
ATL Ryan - 1st (original team)
CAR Delhomme - UDFA (acquired via FA)
TB J.Johnson - 5th (original team) ---- placeholder for Freeman? (1st rounder, original team)
NO Brees - 2nd (acquired via FA)
SF Hill - UDFA(acquired via FA)
AZ Warner - UDFA (acquired via FA)
SEA Hasselbeck - 6th (acquired via trade)
StL Bulger - 6th (acquired via FA)
So, going by just how each team got it's current starting QB.....
original team = 19 teams
acquired via trade = 5 teams
acquired via FA = 8 teams
and where they were drafted originally
1st = 15
2nd = 3
3rd - 5th = 5
6th - UDFA = 9
Here are the main takeaways that I see….
1. While you certainly can get a starting QB by other means, most teams do in fact draft their own.
2. While you certainly can find a starting QB in another round, round1 remains the predominant round to find QBs.
3. It is amazing that there are more starting QBs in the NFL that were 6th round to UDFA than there are from rounds 2 through 5 combined (9 to 8 currently). This includes the NFC West that is ENTIRELY comprised of QBs drafted in the 6th round or UDFA.
This by no means says we should draft a QB in round1 in 2010….it just suggests that it is likely we will have to draft a QB at some point and that it will likely have to be in round1. Enjoy.
<edit> adjusted Russell as original team (had him as acquired via trade for some silly reason on my first post...whoops...thanks dong)
Last edited by no_logo_required; 10/14/09 06:07 PM.
#gmstrong
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 5,109
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 5,109 |
No, it's because they draft good players and have great coaching. If you go back to 2004, I'm betting you can't find a single Steelers's 1st round bust.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 2,044
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 2,044 |
thanks for the work. quick edit is russell of the raiders wasn't acquired via trade. he's original team.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 2,044
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 2,044 |
weren't you talking about 2nd rounders and the pats, though? if you were, first name that comes to mind is chad jackson. he didn't pan out but by smart maneuvers by the pats, they got moss and welker and they weren't tied to seeing if chad jackson would pan out. hell, they've all but given up on laurence maroney also, who was a 1st round pick. these things just don't show up as strong because they recognize where their deficiencies lie and make the bold moves to fix it.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 172
2nd String
|
|
2nd String
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 172 |
Quote:
I don't buy the luck theory. If it was "luck" how come the Pats, Steelers, and Ravens rarely miss on draft picks. How do the Raiders, Browns, and Lions almost always miss?
It's a combination of both scouting and coaching. Both are needed.
Souting is a big part of it. But wasn't Savage some sounting lunatic? What happened come draft day? He missed on a lot of players.
The Pats, Steelers, and Ravens have a plan in place that they don't go against. For the most part, they take the best player on the board who fits their system. They don't go after the long shot players and hope they become pro bowlers. They don't really keep players that start to get up there in age. They always seem to ave a solid player waiting in the wings. All 3 of those teams are the best run in the NFL. The Pats did get lucky with Brady though. Team after team passed on him. I don't know how QB rich that draft was, or wasn't. But, finding a QB like Brady in the late rounds is pure luck.
The thing that jumps out about the Raiders, Browns and Lions. Is the fact that all 3 teams have had a lot of changes in the the FO. Coaching change after coaching change. Couple that with just ... poor drafting over the years. None of those teams have a set plan of attack. The Browns and Lions are trying to change that. It's going to be a slow process like Peter King said. Years and years of bad transactions. Years and years of changing regimes. It's a big hole to dig out of. That's why this draft with the 11 picks is critical for this franchise.
|
|
|
DawgTalkers.net
Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum State of Cleveland Browns (Peter
King Article)
|
|
