DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2013 NFL Season NFL Draft (2013) Glazer: Rams, Redskins strike deal for No. 2 pick

I just don't see Blackmon as being in the same league as AJ Green, or even Julio Jones. He's a nice WR, but not a WR you build around ..... if there even is such a thing.

http://www.espncleveland.com/common/more.php?m=49&post_id=656


Diddling while Cleveland burns
Mar 10, 2012 -- 12:25pm
By Bruce Hooley

It’s time Browns president Mike Holmgren and general manager Tom Heckert brush up on their geography.

Gentlemen, you work for the Cleveland Browns, located in Cleveland, Ohio….Eastern Standard time zone, 41 degrees north latitude, 81 degrees west longitude.

In other words, boys, we’re not in Alaska any more.

After two seasons and only nine wins on the job, you no longer toil in the Land of the Midnight Sun, where it’s perpetually daylight in the dreams we have for the future of our beloved franchise under your direction.

There is no more tolerance for a “second first year,” a “process” or any of the other measured mumbo jumbo you’ve been spinning about the ponderous pace of rebuilding our Browns into something other than an NFL punchline.

It’s time for some urgency, fellas…the kind you did not show in allowing Washington to trump your queen and obtain the No. 2 pick in the NFL draft from St. Louis.

The Redskins will now get Heisman Trophy quarterback Robert Griffin to lead their franchise into the next decade.

It doesn’t matter what you offered the Rams for the No. 2 pick. All that matters is you didn’t offer enough.

If SI.com’s Peter King is correct, you let Griffin get away because you weren’t willing to include a second-round choice – No. 37 overall – along with three No. 1 picks.

Washington met St. Louis’ price – believed to be the first time in NFL history a team has traded three No. 1 picks for another first-rounder.

The Rams made clear their preference for completing the deal before the start of free agency.

Washington pay heed and acted boldly.

Heckert and Holmgren heard the same admonition and waited for someone else to make a move so they could continue to rest on their comfortable roost on the fence.

It’s where they’ve resided since coming here, trying to make do with a third-round project as their quarterback of the future, failing to upgrade via free agency skill positions bereft of talent, overdrafting prospects that no other teams rate as highly and relying on the brilliance of their West Coast system to outsmart the rest of the league.

As Heckert said Thursday on Cleveland Browns Daily on ESPN 850 WKNR: ''We feel very comfortable staying at four and getting a good player there, and that could happen. And we feel comfortable in moving down and getting more picks, we really do. It's way early to start talking about this stuff.''

Way too early for him. Not too early for Washington.

How can the word, “comfortable,” still remain in Heckert or Holmgren’s vocabulary after the product they’ve put on the field the past two seasons?

Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati – the Browns’ competition in the AFC North – all made the playoffs last season and have far brighter prospects for the future.

Oh, but the Browns have lots of draft picks with which to overtake them.

Tell that to Cincinnati, which has nine picks in the first three rounds of the next two drafts, with its franchise quarterback and wide receiver plucked in the draft last season.

Or tell it to Pittsburgh and Baltimore, which have proven track records of de-pantsing Cleveland in the draft (Joe Flacco, Haloti Ngata, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, etc., etc., etc.).

The Browns don’t have a quarterback, have dubious interest in retaining the only facsimile of an offensive playmaker they have in soon-to-be-free-agent Peyton Hillis, averaged just over 13 points per-game last season and scored only one more point than the expansion Browns of 1999.

Yet, still, Heckert and, presumably, Holmgren, are comfortable.

If it’s true they balked on making the RG3 deal with Washington to preserve a second-round choice, that ranks as H&H’s dumbest move yet.

Allowing a second-rounder to stand between them and a possible transcendent talent at the most important position in football is akin to walking away from a home purchase because of a $5,000 difference in price.

Amortized over a 30-year loan, that $5,000 might hike the home-buyer’s monthly payment by 20 bucks.

Similarly, the second-rounder the Browns preserved is unlikely to make any appreciable difference in the team’s fortunes going forward. Unless, of course, you consider the loss of a second-rounder like Brian Robiskie crippling.

Here’s hoping the arrival of the summer solstice jars Holmgren and Heckert to advance their time clocks at least an hour on getting the Browns back into competitive shape.

If not, Holmgren might never have a team capable of allowing him to make good on his threat to withhold playoff tickets from non-believers.

When it comes to seeing the Browns as a viable Super Bowl contender, the view right now looks a lot like it did to Yogi Berra when he once spoke about the sun making left field in Yankee Stadium problematic for him to play.

“It gets late early out there.”

Bruce Hooley hosts The Hooligans from 3-6 p.m. weekdays on ESPN 850 WKNR. Email Bruce at hoolz@espncleveland.com. Follow Bruce on Twitter @bhoolz

I would have taken Claiborne until this morning. However, the more I think about it, a WR is not going to make a bit of difference without a QB. If we don't have a QB, then we might as well be able to run the ball.

Even with Claiborne, I don't see us shutting teams down to the point where we can win games scoring 13 points. I cannot imagine receivers beating down the doors to sign here with the condition of our QB position, not top caliber ones anyway. We're going to need help on offense, and if we can't get a premiere QB, then we need a premiere offensive talent that doesn't depend on the QB.

Plus people say that McCoy can play fake. At least Richardson would be someone teams would be concerned about on a fake.

Barkley, Jones, EJ Manuel and Tyler Wilson make next years class just as talented as this year. Would love to get Tannehill because I do believe he is going to be Elite but those 4 QBs right there have as much potential as the QBs in this draft. Could also have Casey Pachall of TCU if he comes out early, kid has some skill.

I . . . FRIGGIN' . . . CAN'T . . . STAND . . . Bruce Hooley. I was so glad he was forced out of Columbus and now here he is all whiney and negative, complaining about the Browns.

what a great big old pile of horse crap that article was. Reading that was like sand paper circumcision.

I'm really getting sick and tired of these negative nancies here. OMG! We didn't mortgage our future to land RGIII.. "OH NOES WE ARE GOING TO STINK FOREVER!" I got lambasted for saying that RGIII supporters thought that RGIII would be our savior and guess what.. I was right. They are walking around in defeat as if we will stink forever because we didn't land an over-hyped quarterback PROSPECT.

Sorry, but 3 first rounders and our second rounder which is basically close enough to the first round to be a first rounder is too high a price to risk on taking a prospect that may or may not pan out, especially when you have an OL that couldn't protect worth a penny and WRs that couldn't catch a cold while swimming in a pool of cold-infected mucus.

The Redskins got fleeced and a lot fans around the league feel that they did. Adding RGiii is not the only solution to our problems. If we did trade our 4,2 and 37 pick for RGiii, we wouldn't have a pick until the 5th pick in the 3rd round. Who woulld solidify our WR at that pick? When would we pick a DE or LB to helpd solidify our run defense? When do we pick up a RT to protect the QB's right side to fix the turnstile that exists?

While RGiii at 4 would have been great, mortgaging the draft to pick him up would be a folly. You can say we can work the FA, but unfortunately that is expensive and we'd have to pay an arm and a leg for players who would most likely would rather go to a team with a better chance to go to the Super Bowl. In the past, Offensive FAs haven't worked out that great for us either.

And, I wouldn't trust any reports saying that we offered the same deal as the Redskins and lost. If we had the exact same deal, the Ram would be big losers to pass that up because the 4th pick is better than the 6th pick in this draft in terms of what the Rams possibly are seeking out.

Wow, Hooley sounds just like every other fan board poster who just found out we wouldn't sell the future for their man crush 2ndbest qb in the draft this year. And this "it was just a 2nd round pick difference" stuff has to stop until a real source (holmgren/heckert) confirms it on the record, otherwise it is just rumor and conjecture.

We are going to be a far better TEAM for not doing this trade.

I really will be pissed if we draft a RB with our first pick..

with Luck and RG3 gone at 1 and 2.. my board looks like:

1) Claiborne
2) Kalil
3) Blackmon

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To you and Otto, the people bemoaning this trade aren't upset with Heckert for not topping the deal, just for the fact that we're stuck with mediocre QB options.

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BS. You and Ytown and all the other moaners are pissed because we didn't get your guy. Period.

Free Agency hasn't started and the Draft is a month and a half away but you've already decided that we're doomed.

You guys really need to take a cold shower, take a deep breath and quit your bitchin'. At least until the Draft is over. When you MIGHT, MAYBE have a reason to gripe.

Talk about overreacting......

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I'm really getting sick and tired of these negative nancies here. OMG! We didn't mortgage our future to land RGIII.. "OH NOES WE ARE GOING TO STINK FOREVER!"

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I haven't really seen a lot of complaining other than a couple guys. Lets not start making generalizations on the last page you read from 1 or 2 posters.

Mine look like this: (assuming that Kalil will go to Minnesota at 3)

Richardson
Claiborne
Blackmon

Claiborne would be my #1 in a normal year, but this is not a normal year. We are so incredibly awful on offense that we need a heavy duty difference maker there. We scored just 13 points per game, and we are going to lose Hillis. We need to shore up some area on offense so we can do something well. Blackmon isn't going to turn around the offense by himself. Richardson would let McCoy at least be able to run play action that teams would have to pay attention to. I think that would open up more than any WR will.

I would ordinarily go CB before either RB or WR, but this is not an ordinary year. If we had anything resembling an average offense, then I might go CB. However we are so bad, that we need the biggest possible impact player, and at this point, that's Richardson. he is also the guy who will help McCoy more than any other, if he winds up being our QB again this coming year.

For the Browns, no deal for Robert Griffin III was the right deal: Terry Pluto
Published: Saturday, March 10, 2012, 1:19 PM Updated: Saturday, March 10, 2012, 2:24 PM
Terry Pluto, The Plain Dealer By Terry Pluto, The Plain Dealer


CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Three first-round draft picks for Robert Griffin III?

I don't make that deal.

Yes, I know what Washington did, shipping its top draft picks in each of the next three years to St. Louis for the right to pick the Baylor quarterback. Also in the deal is Washington's 39th pick this season.

Maybe the man known as RG3 will be worth it. Maybe Browns fans will add the 'No Deal For RG3' to the list of laments, along with 'Red Right 88', 'The Drive' and the other stops on the local football trail of tears. Maybe failure to out-bid Washington will forever haunt the current front office of President Mike Holmgren and General Manager Tom Heckert.

But I doubt it. And I would not have risked it.

Griffin is a unique talent and an exceptional student. It would be a shock if he fails to become a good NFL quarterback. But great quarterbacks need superior players to help them reach those heights.

This trade would have almost assured the Browns of not being able to protect and maximize Griffin's talent. Losing the top picks over the next few seasons cuts off the main flow of talent.

Besides, do we really know what was the final price? Suppose the Browns actually offered their top two first-rounders this season, plus their top pick in 2013, plus a second round pick. There is a report that the Browns did offer three first-rounders, but that was "too late."

I doubt it ... either the offer, or that it was "too late." The draft is April 26. Trades can't even be announced until Tuesday.

But suppose the Browns were willing to trade three first-rounders, would that have been enough? Who knows? Washington could have raised its offer because Washington is reckless and desperate, a combination that rarely leads to success.

Two weeks ago, I wrote a column saying the price for Griffin would probably include three first-round picks. Several readers argued otherwise. They mentioned the infamous Jimmy Johnson draft value chart along with some history where no more than a pair of first-rounders were part of mega-deals for rookie quarterbacks.

My counter was two words: Daniel Snyder.

The Washington owner doesn't care what he pays for free agents, trades or coaches. He spends wildly and cares little about next year's team. The problem is that he's not won in the present, despite all the big money and big names. In the last three years, Washington is 5-11, 6-10 and 4-12. Since Snyder bought the team in 1999, Washington has had only three winning seasons -- and six head coaches.

Why would a respected football man such as Mike Shanahan make this trade?

A) His owner wants it.

B) His record in his first two seasons was 5-11 and 6-10.

C) If he doesn't win now, he'll be fired because Snyder likes to hire and fire big-name coaches. So he won't have to worry about the future and those draft choices.

Some fans and media people say that no matter what Washington was willing to pay, the Browns should have paid more -- as if making the deal (even a damaging one) is the same as turning a losing team into a legitimate playoff contender.

But the opposite could be true.

Giving up three first-round picks, a second-round pick, and who knows what else very well could have ensured that the Browns remain out of the playoff picture for a long time -- despite the excitement that Griffin might have brought to Cleveland
web page

One thing is for sure. This is the last quarterback Shanahan will draft in the first round for the Redskins.

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I doubt it ... either the offer, or that it was "too late." The draft is April 26. Trades can't even be announced until Tuesday.

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I don't suppose we'll ever know for sure, but to me, this is what it really boils down to.. we don't know if the browns ACTUALLY made an offer or if the Rams were starting that rumor in order to drive the bidding up.

I mean, we literally only have one reporter using another report as a source that is using another reporter as a source.. how in the hell can anyone trust that?

j/c In the end I am glad we didn't go all in on the RG3 sweepstakes. In C-town or in Washington at this price the only one he could throw it to for the next few years is himself.

IMHO, both teams have so many problems to fix that I don't think having RG3 is going to matter too much. In the end, whether we traded with the Rams or Washington traded with the Rams, the winner is the Rams when they hear "With the first pick in the 2013 NFL draft, the St. Louis Rams select..." With the Redskins problems, they might hear that in 2014 too!! I think this might be a case where the "winner" might be the "loser". I am ready to turn the page and hope the FO does it's job and gets quality / value AND QUANTITY in this draft and drafts to come.

Did I want RG3? Sure. But at that price it's like buying a Corvette and then having to live in the parent's basement for the 10 years because you are out of cash. Just my $0.02

Interesting poll numbers...
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/fp/flashPollResultsState?sportIndex=nfl&pollId=134948

J/C



LO effing L @ Washington. They just traded 3 1st round draft picks for Akili Smith 2.0. Way to go idiots!

Man this is looking GREAT for us.

#4 - Justin Blackmon
trade #22 and 4th rounder to move up to 15-16 range - Ryan Tannehill
#37 - best DE on board (Mercilus / Perry / Ingram)
3rd round - best CB on board (Brandon Boykin)
4th round - Bernard Pierce
5th round - Best RT on board

Call it a draft.

FANTASTIC. I am soooo glad we didn't over pay out the wazooo for this kid. I think he's a 95% chance bust. Even if by some miracle he does pan out, it's not worth the cost and risk associated with that deal.

NRTU

Get over it and move on.

Simple as that.

1) Trade down, if it's still in the top 10 or 15. (If Kalil and the below 3 are there, teams will be drooling)

2) Claiborne

3) Blackmon

4) Richardson

5) Ehhh, not sure . . .

Here is one for the number geeks here.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.c...rt-griffin-iii/

Evaluating the Redskins Trade for Robert Griffin III
March 10, 2012 by kevinmeers

Baylor's Robert Griffin III

On Friday night, reports emerged that the Washington Redskins had agreed to give the
St. Louis Rams their first and second round picks this year, along with their 2013 and 2014 first round picks in exchange for the second overall pick. While there are a number of storylines in this trade, this post examines the expected value that the Redskins sacrificed to get the second overall pick. Because I grew up in Washington, this post is Redskins-centric. If you are wondering how it affects the Rams, just flip all of the analysis below.

Using my previous analysis of the draft, this post examines two things: first, how much the Redskins actually paid for Robert Griffin III, and second, how well RGIII has to perform to justify this price. Because this trade involves future draft picks whose exact overall number is impossible to know, we must assign some value to them. Since teams cannot know what draft position they will have the following year, I assume that the expected value of those picks is the average of the picks in that round. For example, a future first round pick is worth the average value of all picks in the first round. Using this assumption, I evaluate this trade and compare it to the Julio Jones and Ricky Williams trades from previous years.

From an expected value perspective, the Redskins definitively lost this trade (to put it mildly). The second overall pick carries an expected Career Approximate Value Over Average (eCAVOA) of 435.4. The 6th and 38th overall picks have a combined eCAVOA of 525.1. If the Redskins had given up just these picks, they would have lost 89.7 eCAVOA, which is the equivalent of the 114th overall pick (the middle of the 4th round).

If this price had been the extent of the trade, it would have been defensible. A 525.1 eCAVOA translates to a CAV of 78.7, essentially equaling Matt Hasselbeck’s CAV. So RGIII would have only had to equal Hasselbeck for this trade to be equal.

However, the Redskins gave much more: their next two first round draft picks. The average expected value of a first round pick is 276.8 eCAVOA, which brings the total eCAVOA the Redskins gave up to 1078.7. The Rams only gave up 435.4 eCAVOA, giving them a net gain of 643.3 eCAVOA, equivalent to the first and 57th overall draft picks.

However, the above calculations assume that picks this year have equal value to picks in the future. Since that assumption is false, we have to discount the value of those draft picks. We can calculate the discount rate the Redskins placed on their future first round picks by setting the values on each side of this trade equal to each other, with r equal to the discount rate:

6th pick + 38th pick + 2013 1st Rounder + 2014 1st Rounder = 2nd pick +surplus value

341.5 + 183.7 + 276.8/(1+r)n + 276.8/(1+r)n+1 = 435.4 + surplus value

276.8/(1+r)n + 276.8/(1+r)n+1 = -89.8 + surplus value

This equation cannot be solved where surplus value = 0. Even if r equaled infinity, this equation would not balance without a surplus. The only way it could be possible would be if the Redskins negatively valued their future first round draft picks. Given their previous willingness to trade away picks, this may not be far off. However, assuming that having first round picks is actually good for your team, this trade is awful for the Redskins.

But just how bad was this trade? In The Loser’s Curse, Cade Massey and Richard Thaler found that teams discount future draft picks at a rate of 173%. I agree with the authors’ comment that this discount rate is “staggering”, but it is much less clear what rate teams should use. With this value, our equation becomes:

276.8/(2.73) + 276.8/(2.73)2 = -89.8 + surplus value

138.5 = -89.8 + surplus value

228.3 = surplus value

An eCAVOA of 228.3 equates to the 22nd overall pick. So with this trade, the Redskins lost the expected value equivalent to the 22nd overall pick.

But let’s not jump to conclusions. RGIII could be better than the average second overall pick. In fact, he could be the best second overall pick ever. So how good does RGIII have to be to justify this trade?

Given the discounted value of the future draft picks, the total price the Redskins paid was 753.5 eCAVOA. That price translates to a CAV of 113.0, comparable to Tom Brady’s current production to date (109 CAV). For the Redskins to get the equivalent value from RGIII as they spent acquiring him, he must produce at least as much as Tom Brady. If RGIII merely lives up to his eCAVOA, he’ll finish his career having slightly outperformed David Garrard (61 CAV). Because all-time-great quarterbacks are rare commodities, the Redskins likely lost value both on paper and in reality.

This trade is very comparable to some of the most lopsided trades from the past few years. Last offseason, the Atlanta Falcons gave the 26th, 69th, and 124th, overall picks along with their 1st and 4th round picks this year for the 6th overall pick, which they used on Julio Jones. The calculations below determine the value they lost from this trade.

26th pick + 69th pick + 124th pick + 1st rounder + 4th rounder = 6th pick + surplus value

216.1 + 132.7 + 82.5 + 276.8/2.73 + 91.9/2.73 = 341.5 + surplus value

224.9 = surplus value

This calculation shows that the Falcons sacrificed almost the exact same value to acquire Jones as the Redskins did for RGIII. For the Falcons to get the same value from Jones as they spent drafting him, he must perform similarly to Keyshawn Johnson (78 CAV).

For what it’s worth, the Redskins trade is still much better than the Saints’ trade for Ricky Williams. In 1999, the Saints traded the 12th, 71st, 107th, 144th, 179th, 218th, along with a first and fourth rounder the following year for the 5th overall pick.

665.7 + 276.8/2.73 + 91.9/2.73 = 357.1 + surplus value

443.7 = surplus value

That surplus is almost exactly double what the Falcons and Redskins gave up in their trades. For the Saints to get the production that they paid for out of Williams, he would have had to perform as well as Barry Sanders (CAV of 122). A Hall-of-Fame career is too much to expect from any draft pick.

Regardless of the rationale behind this move, the Redskins lost a tremendous amount of value in this trade, potentially setting the team back for years. If RGIII does not pan out – whether because of talent or injury – Washington would be left with no quarterback and no first round draft picks for the next two years. Regardless of RGIII’s future, the Redskins lost about as much expected value as the Falcons gave up last year to acquire Julio Jones. While RGIII will bring excitement to Washington, the conclusion here is clear. This trade was a bad move by the Redskins, and one of the worst moves in recent history. Vintage Redskins.

1a QB Texas A&M Tannehill
1b. DE Mercilus
2. WR Jeffery or WR Sanu
3. RT Cal. Swartz
4a. RB Utah St. Turbin
4b. WR Broyles Okla
5. LB Danny Trevathon

Loyal, I need some help with what you wrote...

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I think we will look back on this and laugh one day. I am laughing now and feel much better about this team going forward. It show's we are in good hands and are sticking with the plan of building through the draft.

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Weren't we going to build through the draft by trading for Griffin?

I also think that's worth noting we CLEARLY were offering multiple 1st rounders here. The question is if we did indeed offer 3 first round plus more but just came up short.

If we are in good hands with Heckert and Holmgren, keep in mind they were willing to give up the farm for Griffin.

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If you ask me today is a good day to be a Brown's fan and am excited for the draft and see what Heckert has up his sleeves.

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I think we saw what Heck had up his sleeve, which was to give up the farm for Griffin. That didn't work because the Deadskins offered an even more ridiculous deal to get their guy.

Count me as one of the people who wanted to replace McCoy with Griffin. However, ALSO count me as one of the people who would have said no long before it came to offering three first round picks PLUS a second round pick for him. In that vein, I'm glad we didn't do it, as there just wouldn't have been any blue-chip draftees in our future to make us a winner. We'd have been going down the road of over-paying for free agents, and that's just not a recipe for success.

Now if you mean you're excited to see what Heck does next, well, I'm excited for our very first pick, but after that? I'm not excited about Tannehill. I'm not excited about any of the other QB's in this draft. I'm not excited about McCoy, and clearly neither are Heck and Holmgren.

I'm excited for the long term future of the team because of how many draft picks we have, but for this next season, well, let the rebuilding continue behind a QB who has nobody's faith in the FO.

Bringing this back full-circle to what I'd typed, I AM excited because we've got AT LEAST 3 picks in the first 37, and that could turn into more. That's the very worst thing that could have happened to us. However, if you're saying that you're excited because Heckert made this great decision not to go after Griffin, I think that's incorrect logic. It looks for all the world to me that he wanted to try to offer even MORE than the the 3 1st rounders, but the Deadskins weren't going to allow it to happen.

Just conversation here, because I'm NOT going to bemoan the fact we didn't get Griffin because the price was just too high.

While I can't disagree with the spirit of your post, comparing him to Akili Smith is moronic and probably at heart some form of bigotry/racism

-Smith had one good year, could not run, was by all regards not very intellegent but he was black
-RGIII was a fourth year junior, earned his college degree and is known for his intelligence and leadership, had 2 very good years and 1 great, won Heismann and is black

While I did want him, the price was too steep for me. His closest comparison would be Vick b/c of athleticism and arm strenght but RGIII appears to be the better human, scholar, and leader.....we'll see....personally, he's truly unique and w/o comparison at this point. Will be glad to follow his career

I think you've chosen some very poor words by suggesting he's a bigot or a racist.

I think we as people still fall into some form of stereo-typing, but that is FAR from being a bigot or a racist.

Every single statement about the Browns offering anything goes straight back to Adam Schefter and his report. A report that is about as likely as Hillis joing the CIA. Until heckert says he tried to trade up to 2, I wont believe it. He said he asked about Bradford and about Newton, so I am pretty sure he will say if he called to trade up for Griffin.

I really like RG3 and I am disappointed he won't be an option for us at #4. If we made the same trade Washington did, I feel it would have crippled our chances of really rebuilding this team. QB is just one of many needs that we have.

I do hope now we really make a smart decision on Flynn. Overpaying for him would also hurt.

If we lose 2 or 3 of our first 4 next season, we should just tank the rest to ensure we have the top pick.

Totally agree!

In response to the poser you replied to ....... all I would like to know is: Who are we going to get in free agency who is a comparable talent? Really, when it comes down to it, who are we going to get in the draft who is a comparable talent?