DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Tailgate Forum MLB Playoffs 2012

Ok, so I have been reading alot on the Tribe. Apparently, we are supposed to be hoping that Masterson returns to 2011 form while laughing at the possibility that Ubaldo could be a competent pitcher ever again. This makes no logical sense to me.

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statlines: ERA/FIP, K/BB, WAR (IP)

2009 Masterson 4.54/4.04, 1.98, 2.1 (129.1)
2010 Masterson 4.70/3.93, 1.92, 2.5 (180)
2011 Masterson 3.21/3.28, 2.43, 4.7 (216)
2012 Masterson 4.93/4.16, 1.81, 2.3 (206.1)

I apologize for that chilliness you now feel as it is the cold slap of reality hitting you across the cheek. Masterson has been an extremely consistent pitcher at the MLB level except for one magical 2011 season in which he limited HRs while walking a batter less per 9IP. We had hoped that 2011 was a sign of things to come, but his regression back to his career norms in stats across the board is more likely significant to what he is.

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2008 Ubaldo 3.99/3.82, 1.67, 4.3 (198.2)
2009 Ubaldo 3.47/3.36, 2.33, 5.9 (218)
2010 Ubaldo 2.88/3.10, 2.33, 6.7 (221.2)
2011 Ubaldo 4.68/3.67, 2.31, 3.6 (188.1)
2012 Ubaldo 5.40/5.06, 1.51, 0.2 (176.2)

First, let's put 2010 for Ubaldo in the 2011 category for Masterson. A special year that we cannot count on repeating moving forward.

What I see though are remarkably consistent numbers until a small regression in 2011 (though most peripherals are intact), then a fall-off-the-cliff dive in 2012. Is it possible that Ubaldo fell off that cliff and his career is over? Sure. But, shouldn't it be more likely he returns to his career norms than Masterson replicating his one good year?

Why did 2012 happen to Ubaldo? Well, he did a whole ton of things worse than he ever had in his career. Let's go over the big item ones.

K/BB rate: 1.51 is a career worst. He walked a batter more per 9IP while striking out a batter less per 9IP. That is a double-whammy.

HR/FB: unlike Masterson, and despite pitching mostly in Coor's, Ubaldo had a remarkable penchant for keeping FBs in the park in his career. But, after hovering around 7% in his career, he spiked to 9% in '11 and then all the way up to 12% in '12.

GB%: Ubaldo is a worm-killer. He is supposed to have above (or at least around) 50% GB%. Last season, he was at 38%. So, not only was he giving up more HR per FB, but he was giving up more FBs. Another double-whammy.

So, why hold out any hope? Well, for one, he had a terrible year. But, before that terrible year he was a better pitcher than anyone we have on our staff and better than anyone we are likely to acquire. I think the odds of him regaining some of that stature (even if not all of it) are better than someone else growing into that role in 2013.

Oh, and Bill James agrees with me:

2013 Ubaldo "projections" 3.97/3.99, 1.84, N/A (170)

The thing that worries me about Ubaldo is his declining fastball velocity.

2007: 96.7
2008: 95.4
2009: 96.0
2010: 96.3
2011: 93.9
2012: 92.5

Fangraphs

Ubaldo was at his best when he could when he could throw hard (obviously). Those days are behind him.

I agree with you though, he could be a little bit below league average pitcher.

yes his fastball isn't what it once was, and I agree his best days are behind him. but, I think he's alot better than 2012 as well. we'll see what happens, but constantly seeing stuff about how we should just trade Ubaldo for whatever middling prospect we can get is foolish to me.

I agree.

While not good, having a starter who can throw 200 innings every year and not be terrible is a valuable thing to have.

oh dang. this could be a AL Central shifting move.

Quote:

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ANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) The Kansas City Royals gambled their future Sunday night for a chance to win right now.

The Royals acquired former All-Star James Shields and fellow right-hander Wade Davis from Tampa Bay in a six-player deal that sent top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi along with two other minor leaguers to the Rays. The swap immediately bolsters the Royals' starting rotation and should make them a contender in the relatively weak American League Central.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/ba...l#ixzz2EfiR3a9e

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Shields and Wade Davis provide the Royals with an honest-to-goodness MLB rotation. They have the hitting potential, which could make them a complete team. Yeah, it could fall apart too, but this is a good gamble by them. I'm impressed (and saddened - one more team we just fell behind in our own division).

The Rays fleeced them. Myers is about as good as a prospect gets without being named Trout or Harper. Jake Odorizzi was their top pitching prospect. Montgomery was, at one point, their top pitching prospect but had Tommy John surgery.

The Royals are gaining Shields for two years and giving up six or seven years of Myers and Odorizzi. Also, they could have just signed someone like Anibal Sanchez (who is not as good as Shields) for about the same money and then kept the prospects.

Yeah, but we just signed Mark Reynolds to play 1B, which I guess eliminates Youkilis. Yippee-ki-yay. Nick Swisher is still a (distant) possibility. Indians are reportedly interested in Edwin Jackson - who I like - but thats a reach since his agent is Boros. I'd like Anibel Sanchez too.

Yeah, I was thinking of Lamb. My bad.

Still, not bad to take a chance on a guy who has been a top prospect very recently in his career.

I don't mind trading prospects, but the Royals probably should've have waited and got someone younger than Shields. Heck last year Gio Gonzalez was had for in a similar deal. Shields is a very good number 2, but I don't put him in the elite level. He will eat up plenty of innings. Also 2 years isn't a long time to have him under contract.

I think the royals panicked a bit. I think they could've done better considering the prospects they have.

and Myers is a much higher rated prospect than any of the players Oakland received.

Even Odorizzi is rated higher at this point than most of those guys probably. Cole probably has the highest upside for Oakland but he is still in single I believe, I know he got shelled went he started the year in high A. He bounced back in low A when he got sent down though.

yes, Myers is a higher rated talent than anyone the A's received.

i'm just sick of seeing all of the Shields "internet-hate" going on right now. the guy is a very good pitcher who could be jump to SP1 status, but people are acting like he's not very good (and the Gio comparison demonstrates it well because Gio was not as good as Shields leading up to that trade).

anyways, one thing on the Royals SP staff is that they have strengths, but one big weakness: they give up too many HRs. numbers following are rough approximate expected values:

Shields 1 HR/9IP
Guthrie 1.25HR/9IP
E.Santana: 1.5HR/9IP
W.Davis 1HR/9IP
Mendoza .75HR/9IP (and he might not start)
Hochevar 1.25HR/9IP
Chen 1.5HR/9IP

That is not a good thing when the team you are trying to compete with is the Detroit Tigers with Miggy, Prince, Victor and Austin Jackson.

Sure Shields had more years than Gio, but that should've been the player the royals wanted when you give up a prospect with Meyer's ability. The nationals have Gonzalez under contract through 2018. Prior to getting traded he had won 15 and 16 games on some pretty bad Oakland teams. plus his era was around 3.2. No disrespect to Shields, but I would rather have a pitcher that is younger, less innings pitched, and have under control for the next 6 years.

the Nats signed Gio after they traded for him. so, the Royals 'could' do the same. saying they only have 2 years of Shields when the Nats had to re-sign/extend Gio is not a fair argument.

yes, Gio is 3yrs younger than Shields.

Well with the Indians signing a RH power 1B, and with offers on the table for a RH 3B (Youkilis), and Swisher who I assume would play LF. Not really the players I want but they trying to add the RH's and veterans to help the young guys. I've also read they are in on Edwin Jackson.

CF. Michael Brantley
SS. Asdrubal Cabrera
2B. Jason Kipnis
RF. Choo
1B. Mark Reynolds
C. Carlos Santana
3B. Kevin Youkilis
LF. Nick Swisher
DH. Not sure, will move up depending on who it is.

I think this is at least a good line-up. Better than years past, not so lefty dominate.

Report: Reds, Indians talking Stubbs, Gregorius for Choo trade
12/11/12 at 4:30pm


Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports the Reds and Indians are in trade discussions on a deal that would bring Shin-Soo Choo to the Reds for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorius. Knobler says the Reds would also get another player in the deal.

According to Cleveland Plain Dealer Indians beat writer Paul Hoynes, a three-team deal is cooking which also involves Arizona.

From Knobler:

The Reds plan to use Choo in center field and as their leadoff man. Choo has played just 10 games in center field for the Indians, none since 2009. But the Reds believe that whatever they lost defensively would be made up with Choo’s offensive contributions.

Choo had a .373 on-base percentage and an .815 OPS last year for the Indians. He led off 98 times, and had a .389 on-base percentage in those games.

The Reds didn’t make much progress in the Winter Meetings on the leadoff front after rumored names like Shane Victorino, Denard Span, Dexter Fowler, Angel Pagan and Michael Bourn popped up. Jocketty said earlier this month that the Reds weren’t interested in moving a starting pitcher.

“If we can’t improve through trade, we may look at free agents later,” Reds GM Walt Jocketty said. “We would wait and see if the market drops.”

MLB.com reporter Zack Meisel pointed out on Twitter that if the Indians do acquire Stubbs, the Tribe will have added the 2011 National League strikeout leader and the current American League strikeout leader (Mark Reynolds) in a span of three days.

Choo is a free agent after next season and is a Scott Boras client. The Reds are transitioning top prospect Billy Hamilton from shortstop to centerfield.

“(Hamilton’s) learning how to play center field, and he’s learning how to switch hit,” Dusty Baker said at Redsfest. “He has a few things to learn just about baseball, and it won’t be too long. I can’t say how long because I don’t know how quickly he can come.”

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/12/11/report-reds-indians-talking-stubbs-choo-trade/

Not so fast on Choo:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/21363341/reds-in-talks-to-acquire-choo-from-indians


if that happens, then Reds fans can thank us for their 2013 division title (no, Choo doesn't do that alone, but the upgrade in hitting from Stubbs to Choo in addition to what you already have sure does).



Let's start with the fact that I like Stubbs well enough. 2012 was rough, but a pretty consistent .325OBP before that and he's a guy who will steal 30-40 bases on top of that. He's got great range in CF as well. He is going to SO a ton (and yes, him and Reynolds is a scary proposition), but he has pluses.

Now that is out of the way. I would hate this deal. We deal Choo for a complete downgrade at OF and a defensive SS who struggled hitting in AAA (when we have SS depth?).

Trading Choo w/o getting a plus SP or a plus hitter is a pure fail.

I also keep hearing we will trade Cabrera before the season starts as well. I guess Philly wanted him, but the tribe wanted more than Vance Worely.

Unless Francona thinks he could salvage the starting pitching, I would blow this thing up. At best we're .500, still not better than the tigers, probably not better than the royals or sox.

It's a shame we could never get over the hump with this group. Ubaldo, Carmona, and Masterson have all disappointed. Great talent, big time underachievers.

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Indians, Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks are talking about a three-team deal that could reach conclusion tonight.

The Tribe is close to sending outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to the Reds. They could receive outfielder Drew Stubbs and shortstop prospect Didi Gregorious. CBSsports.com first reported that part of the deal.

It has since been learned that Arizona is involved in the deal. The Diamondbacks have been pursuing Tribe shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, but as of this moment it's believed Cabrera is not involved.

During last week's winter meetings in Nashville, Tenn., the Indians and Diamondbacks discussed various forms of a three and four-team deal. Texas, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Kansas City were involved at one time or another.

The Indians were trying to get young starting pitchers from Arizona in exchange for Cabrera, their two-time All-Star shortstop. Right-hander Trevor Bauer, Arizona's No.1 pick in 2011, and left-hander Tyler Skaggs were supposedly coming the Tribe's way.

The deal didn't happen in Nashville, but it appears to be close to happening now.

Choo can be a free agent after the 2013 season. Scott Boras, Choo's agent, has turned down several contract-extension offers by the Tribe over the last few years.

The Reds plan to use Choo in the leadoff spot and in center field. Choo hit well in the leadoff spot for the Tribe, but has played little center field in the big leagues.

Didn't know Youkilis signed with the Yankees, thanks. Swisher I guess takes the RF spot with Stubbs playing CF and Brantley playing LF.

I think the front office is confused right now, maybe Antonetti is trying to win this year and Shapiro thinks he is still in charge and is rebuilding or vise versa.

I'm willing to trade Cabrera if we get Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs. The drop off from Cabrera to Aviles must not be that big a drop off, at least that is what our FO must think.

I think they are in rebuild mode. No reason to sign Swisher are trading Cabrera and Choo.

I'd also be all over that deal if they could get Skaggs and Bauer.

The dropoff from Cabrera to Aviles is enormous. Cabrera hit .270/.338/.423 last year, Aviles hit .250/.282.()/.381. Aviles is a much better defensive shortstop, so there is that.

Swisher would replace Choo in right. Stubbs plays center, which moves Brantley to left.

Plus we would get a pitching prospect that is major league ready, and still have Cabrera as trade bait to get more pitching. It appears the front office wants to try to remain competitive while trading away it's most valuable assets.

If the Diamondbacks get the young shortstop, Didi Gregorius, from the Reds, they will no longer be in the market for Cabrera.

I've heard the Phillies were interested in Cabrera as a third basemen, but I don't think they have much to trade.

Quote:

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Now that is out of the way. I would hate this deal. We deal Choo for a complete downgrade at OF and a defensive SS who struggled hitting in AAA (when we have SS depth?).

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Well, I would say Stubbs is an upgrade defensively but his on base percentage is an embarrassment for a leadoff hitter. I would hate this deal, if I were a Tribe fan.

Well obviously, but that doesn't mean another team won't get in the mix.

If they could get a top pitching prospect from Arizona, I would have no problem with that deal. The tribe needs starting pitching badly.

Looks like this deal is done. Tribe to get Arizona's top pitching prospect in Trevor Bauer, Stubbs from Cincy and 2 others. We give up Donald, Sipp, and Choo. Great trade in getting Bauer. Guy was number 3 pick in the 11 draft. Major league ready.

I didn't realize they were getting Bauer in the deal, that does make it much better for the Tribe.

That three-team mega-trade between the Indians, Reds and Diamondbacks has been made official.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports has the breakdown:
Reds get:

OF Shin-Soo Choo
INF Jason Donald
Indians get:

SP Trevor Bauer
OF Drew Stubbs
RP Bryan Shaw
RP Matt Albers
Diamondbacks get:

SS Didi Gregorius
RP Tony Sipp
OF Lars Anderson
All sorts of analysis to come.


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GREAT trade for the reds!!! I liked stubby,but he needed a change of scenery. Choo is only locked down for 1 more year but the reds also have Hamilton waiting in the wings. I love it!!!

Great trade for the Indians and Reds. Not so sure what the Diamondbacks are doing.

From what little I have found about the players we got, I am quite happy with the trade as well.

The part I dislike most is having to give up Sipp.

I won't complain at all if we can swing a similar deal for Cabrera. We weren't going to be able to re-sign Choo anyway. This team, as constructed, wasn't going to go anywhere anyway. I don't know if Choo was necessarily a "core" piece, but he was very valuable. I think that the Indians got solid value in return.

I also feel like Choo didn't want to be here. It's good that we got 4 players who should contribute this year and into the future.

Great trade for the Tribe.