DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Tailgate Forum Cavs win the Draft Lotto!! (Plus other basketball talk)

I might be wrong but this is a MUST WIN for Indiana tonight. They need to pummel Miami and put some serious pressure on them for game 4.

I think both game 3 and 4 are nearly must win games ... but I put $100 bucks on the Heat tonight. No chance they lose this game.

Indiana has nothing but scrubs off their bench. They need to keep Granger and have him as a 6th man next year. Seriously Young, Hansbrough and Mahimi? They have a strong starting 5 though.

Easiest money I have ever made when it comes to gambling. The media was hyping the Pacers up for two straight days. While they do (usually) play great half court defense, they have zero chance to beat the Heat in a series.

San Antonio and Miami is going to be awesome.

I love this matchup and I think it's going to be a tad closer than many expect.

I see the Spurs/Heat matchup as a 5/6 game series win for the Heat. Miami has a 2nd gear (which we saw last night) and no other team can match it.

Who has home court advantage in the finals? Eastern or Western conference? Does it matter which teams make the finals?

I believe the Heat hold home court advantage over the Spurs. And in the NBA Finals, with the 2-3-2 format, it REALLY is an advantage for the Heat.

Yeah, my inclination is telling me six games.

NBA Free Agency: Cleveland Cavaliers have options at small forward beyond drafting Otto Porter
By David Zavac on May 27 2013, 8:00a @davidzavac 95

Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Cavaliers have two first round draft choices in the upcoming NBA draft, and at least $15 million worth of room under the salary cap. Cleveland was one of the worst teams in the league last year, so the flexibility is important. An upgrade at small forward is necessary. If the Cavs choose to use free agency to improve, who is available?

There are many, many Cleveland Cavaliers fans that spent the NCAA basketball season falling in love with Otto Porter of Georgetown. It makes sense. He is a smart and young player that showed tremendous improvement from his freshman to sophomore season, particularly in his three point shooting, has great length, can pass, and doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective. Given the Cavaliers woes at small forward, Porter seemed like he would be a perfect fit for a team likely picking between three and eight in the lottery. Well, we all know now that the Cavaliers won the lottery and now have the ability to Nerlens Noel, another player who fits a position of need and likely has a lot more upside. But if the Cavaliers don't draft Porter, who will start at small forward next season? While people have spent time denigrating the 2013 free agent class, there are some pretty good options.

First, though, we should take a look at who we are trying to replace, and why we are trying to replace him. Alonzo Gee holds a special place in the hearts of many Cavaliers' fans that have hung in there over the past three seasons. He was a developmental league cast-off that came to Cleveland, made the most of his opportunity, and got himself a guaranteed contract. He is now a millionaire. After giving serious minutes to at least a dozen fringe NBA guys, Gee is the only player who made had both the talent and drive to make it. Unfortunately, a guy that deserves a bench role at best played the second most minutes of any Cavalier last season. This is a recipe for sadness. Gee played 2500 minutes, shot 31.5% from three point range, rebounded poorly for his position, was a disaster (a hilarious disaster) in transition, and showed a lack of understanding of fundamental defensive concepts. It was fun watching him use his length to slow down point guards and shooting guards, and he was our best option guarding small forwards, but the Cavaliers simply can't give that many minutes to a small forward who can't shoot from distance and finishes with a Player Efficiency Rating of 10.5.

And this leads into the point I have made time and time again. The Cavs don't need a small forward with a PER of 20. They just need to stop giving so many minutes to guys who aren't even close to league average. Here are a few guys who would represent major upgrades to Gee, and will likely be free agents this summer.

Tempting, but probably not

Andre Iguodala - Iguodala has a player option for next season worth over $16 million, but he will still likely opt out. Look for him to get a three year extension, around $40 million. Denver likely wants him back, and has the ability to re-sign him for that type of a deal, but teams like the San Antonio Spurs will be after him as well. I am not sure he would consider Cleveland, but he instantly becomes the team's best perimeter defender. While he is getting a little older, a lot of his defensive prowess comes from a really high basketball IQ, and I think he does have 3-4 years left of top quality defense. He is an excellent passer, but struggles to shoot from distance. He is a good fit, but not a perfect fit. Would hurt Cavs financial flexibility moving forward.

Paul Pierce - Bob Finnan is reporting that Pierce's contract will probably be bought out and Chris Grant will make inquiries about bringing him in. As a veteran who is still an alright defender and can shoot a bit from distance, it isn't the worst idea. I can't imagine Pierce not going to a contender, though.

Andrei Kirilenko - Also likely to opt out of his option next year, would probably get a deal of 3 years and $30 million or so. Great passer, defender, and can't shoot from three. He is now 31 years old. A huge upgrade from Gee, but not a perfect fit for Cleveland.

Alright, now we are getting somewhere

Chase Budinger - He just turned 25, is a tremendous athlete, is coming off of an injury and could probably be had for a pretty cheap deal that preserves financial flexibility, Budinger is a fringe NBA starter. In his third season in Houston it looked as though he might have turned the proverbial corner. He shot 40% from three, rebounded well for his position, and was a solid perimeter defender. He has never averaged more than 22 minutes a game, so minutes at the 3 position would still be available for Gee and CJ Miles, but if he plays well (he has never played with a point guard like Kyrie Irving) he could warrant a larger role. The question is whether his three point shooting from his age 23 season was a fluke or not, but I feel he represents an upgrade over Gee regardless.

Dorell Wright - 27 years old, and coming off a tough season in Philadelphia, Wright is a guy who is both a solid shooter and defender. He might be one of the most underrated players in the NBA, as even through Philly's troubles, he finished the season with a PER of 16. In his last four seasons, he has yet to finish a season with a PER of under 14.5. Conrad was ahead of the curve on Wright, and frankly, he looks to be a perfect fit. You can add Wright an maintain financial flexibilty.

Martell Webster - 26 years old and coming off of his best season in the NBA, he is a guy that I would urge some caution on. His three point shooting the last four years, starting with the most recent one: 42%, 34%, 42%, 37%. Pretty darn good, with some relatively serious fluctuation going on. He is a very good defender, helping Washington as a team to have a top 10 defense in the NBA, impressive for any lottery team. He is a better rebounder for his position than Gee, though he is not elite by any stretch. I expect him to be much more expensive than Wright, and I am not sure the pay-off will be that much better.

Others: Corey Brewer (can't shoot from distance (though decent from the corner)), Matt Barnes (don't believe he has a good relationship with Mike Brown), Mike Dunleavy (I would like to guard the perimeter at some point).

I know I didn't get to all the guys who are available, and there are of course trade targets as well. But keep in mind that Otto Porter is going to be a rookie next season, and we know firsthand how hard that can be. I am pretty confident all of the guys I wrote about here will be better than Porter next season. Moving forward, that likely won't be the case, but you can bring in a guy like Wright or Budinger who can help get Cleveland to the playoffs next year, all while allowing Nerlens Noel, Tristan Thompson, Dion Waiters, and Kyrie Irving to develop. There is no need, yet, to take the safe option in a draft. Number one picks don't come along that often. Upgrades to Alonzo Gee are all over the place.

http://www.fearthesword.com/2013/5/27/43...t-small-forward

Would not consider any of the three bigger names at all. None are a fit for this team right now, in my mind. Budinger doesn't interest me that much. Wright intrigues me greatly though.

Will there ever be a small market team that replicates the same success as San Antonio? They play boring non iso basketball, the superstars they have lack personality and they play in a boring city, but they win. It's kind of incredible how their success has had a greater stretch than any other team.

it's just crazy... and they feel like they've been around FOREVER...

Really hope San Antonio finishes this and the other series goes 7 games. Give the Spurs Big 3 as much rest as humanly possible. Hopefully the Pacers just beat the hell out of Lebron.

I agree I'd like the Spurs to win tonight, but I'm afraid the Heat series will not go past 6 games, and possibly 5. They broke the Pacers' confidence last night.

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They've gone from a slow-ball, post-play reliant style of play to an up-tempo, three point shot reliant style of play.

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Honestly this part is what amazes me the most. Most people assume older = slower. However Pop has made the offense run through Parker. That says a lot about Timmy too. Dude is a 4 time champion and the GOAT PF but is unselfish. Manu is a future HOF but will still come off the bench.

It's going to be a sad day when these guys call it quits. For the record I find the basketball they play sexy. They are a LOT more run and gun than in years past.

I hope people got to see Duncan on D right there. He gave Randolph the baseline to basically dig his own grave. I hate to just over praise guys. However this is the difference of basketball IQ between a Tim Duncan and a Blake Griffin. It's not some overused cliché. Blake let Z Bo go to work where he wanted to go early and it would be over. Blake thought he could guard Randolph 1 on 1 once he got the ball. I'll take Randolph 9/10 in that scenario. Timmy or someone else has dictated where Z Bo goes.

GOAT = Greatest of All-Time

Ahh, thanks.

It's amazing when you look back at Duncan's career, and how he's avoided the big injury. That's incredible for a big man.

20&11 guy for his career with 4 rings (and a good chance at 5) who played great defense.

You're right. Timmy and Kawhi are going to need a lot of rest. Hopefully Timmy can just turn back the clock 4/7 times and destroy Miami inside. Tony Parker will get his, but I'm really worried about Wade in that series.

Yeah Wade is interesting. Just when you think the guy is done and only good for making a fool of himself in press conferences and the occasional flying elbow, he goes off and reminds everyone that he's actually one of the best SGs ever. Battier is scrappy and dirty as hell. Andersen is shooting 100% this series... wtf?? I know he gets a ton of good looks if not open dunks playing on the Heat but a lot of those shots are contested by Hibbert and co. I'm not a conspiracy guy by any stretch but Stern and the NBA LOVE the Heat... just saying. There is just so much that can go wrong when playing vs Miami... and I haven't even mentioned Bosh or Lebron yet.

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You know who Noel reminds me of most? A straight out of high school Kevin Garnett. 6'11" 215 lbs. Can he ever develop into a KG. I would lean no but it's not out of the question to me.

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I get the comparison but KG was light years ahead of Noel offensively... KG averaged over 25 ppg in high school and Noel, even with all of his physical advantages, averaged about 12.5 ppg...

Agreed, comparisons to Bosh and KG based on size are silly, unless you think Noel is going to develop a jumper from 15-17.

Wouldn't Serge Ibaka be a little bit more fair a comparison?

I like Noel a lot, I think he has more potential coming out then Ibaka does, but I agree that I think his game is limited.

I think the Cavs have to factor in their FA plans into this.

If they think they have a more than good chance at getting Lebron back, or some other big time free agent, I think this is a good move.

If they don't think so, or are unsure, I think they need to look at another guy who can hover around 20 ppg, but also has some size. They are small all over the floor.

I wouldn't want to be Chris Grant right now. Tough job on this one.

Noel is almost 7 feet tall with a longer wingspan, therefore his ceiling is higher than Ibaka. Nerlens moves better too.

If I had to bet, I think they just take Noel because he's the best talent, and worry about any issues later. It's the safer move, because you're just going by the book. People get fired for not taking the best guy available.

Plus, they are kind of flexible with all these other picks. I love hearing how deep this draft is. That makes me happy when I realize we have another 1.

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I think they just take Noel because he's the best talent,

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That's the thing, he's not the best talent. He's the best athlete so people are hoping he can become the best talent.... which is far from a given.

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It's the safer move, because you're just going by the book. People get fired for not taking the best guy available.

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I agree that if he busts you can at least say that you went with the prevailing opinion... but that's not what GMs get paid to do. So from a CYA perspective he might be the safest pick, but from a "Who is the best player 5 years from now" perspective, he is far from the safest pick.

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I wouldn't want to be Chris Grant right now. Tough job on this one.

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It is, it is also a golden opportunity. You have a young team with some decent young talent on it, you have 4 picks in the top 32 including #1 overall, you have a ton of cap room space... Whatever this team is 3 or 4 years from now, people will look back at this offseason as the primary reason... (good or bad)