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Originally Posted By: PrplPplEater
The biggest thing to remember with all of this because you are dealing with individual persons, not clones:

Correlation does not equal Causation.
Thus, stats like these really only give a historical average of what others have done, but it still gives no reliable indicator at all of what others will do. It projects nothing.


The odds should play out for the NFL as a whole.
How much of an outlier that we are could be very good or very bad depending on our front office.

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Making predictions can be fun. I enjoyed reading all the predictions.

-Cody Kessler starts at least 1 game for the Browns in 2016
-The Browns have more sacks than 24 other teams in the NFL
-Josh McCown is not on the 53 man roster Week #1
-Crowell has more yards rushing than Zeke Elliot
-A Cleveland rookie receiver leads the rookies in receptions
-Co Co has more TD's than any other 2016 1st Round receiver
-Hue Jackson has better time management than any Cleveland Browns HC in 10 years
-The Browns do not draft a QB in the 1st Round of the 2017 Draft.
-Joe Haden has another significant injury and misses more than 3 games
-The Browns have more come from behind wins in 2016 than 4th Quarter losses in 2016


Just a few predictions to mull over. smile Enjoy fellows.

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I predict that the Browns are going to look disjointed to start the year, kind of like a team with a new starting QB, playing under a new coaching staff, and with an unusual number of rookies and second year players at key positions. As the season progresses, and the team begins to come together, there will be improvement. I think we will probably win 4 or fewer games, but most of those will come at the end of the season.

Corey Coleman will look good at times, lost at others, but will prove to be a true weapon. Payton will be an effective possession type but not the quick strike threat. I can't predict Louis or Higgins.

Ogbah will take time to adjust to NFL talent level, but will work hard and be one of the primary sources of improvement as the season progresses. Nassib will be used in passing situations and get some sacks.

Shon Coleman will mirror Schwartz's first season. Like Schwartz, his second season will show much improvement.

Irving will struggle at first, but by season's end will be a competent center.

Griffin will never return to his rookie form, but will prove to be a better than league average starting QB, with is much better than we are accustomed to.

Last edited by W84NxtYrAgain; 05/10/16 09:06 PM. Reason: clarification

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Originally Posted By: DeputyDawg
Originally Posted By: Jester
An interesting thing to look at might be how many pro bowl players are drafted from each round


The author alluded to this at the end, but I wouldn't trust the numbers without a much larger sample.

If I can find a better article, I'll look into that.


After typing this I started to think that looking back at all pro is better than the pro bowl. Seems half the NFL gets in the pro bowl game because the top choices turn it down.


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Originally Posted By: bonefish

Maybe the Browns will build a competitive team out of all the draft picks they have traded for:

At the same time Carson Wentz will prove to be a franchise quarterback.


Teetering on a scale...I am one who believes both plans will come through. Which is what good trades should be. Wentz more than likely will become a Franchise QB...if they play him right away it could ruin him. We got 14 solid picks in our draft and bolstered the team in needed areas. All 14 have a good shot at making the team. A solid foundation of the new regime the class of 2016 and the bonus is 4 quality IMPACT picks to follow up in 2017 we won't need the NUMBERS but instead we will add 4 Impact picks.

A very good plan well executed...of course we have to see the football success! But I think our plan has an equal or higher % of execution than the Eagles.

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Sometime in 2016 I predict the Browns FO will realize once and for all they must take one of to top QB selections in the draft if the want that elusive franchise QB.


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Maybe we just did take one of the top QB selections in this draft.


If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.

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Originally Posted By: Ballpeen
Maybe we just did take one of the top QB selections in this draft.


Maybe.

The Browns have a lot of players to evaluate this year and they can't keep them all. Many of the players that we cut or put on the PS will end up on other teams, so I'm hoping during the evaluation frenzy we don't loose the diamonds and keep the coal. fingerscrossed


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Quote:
The Browns have a lot of players to evaluate this year and they can't keep them all.


Why? We want to get younger, and this season is the perfect year to play and evaluate a lot of young players.

What good does it do to play 30 year old Paul Kruger, for instance, when this team is at least 3 years away? Same thing with players I really like, such as Des Bryant and John Greco?

This is the perfect year to play a whole lot of youngsters, and let them grow together.


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Kind of why it makes sense to listen to trade offers for Joe come mid-season.

It helps Joe at this point in his career, and it probably helps us in a few years.

That is unless we actually start to win sooner. Receivers can impact the game sooner then many positions. We have a young, vet QB who has a chip on his shoulder. Who is to say they don't start opening things up, then the running game happens. I just don't see this as a sure fire doom and gloom on the season.


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Originally Posted By: YTownBrownsFan
Quote:
The Browns have a lot of players to evaluate this year and they can't keep them all.


Why? We want to get younger, and this season is the perfect year to play and evaluate a lot of young players.

What good does it do to play 30 year old Paul Kruger, for instance, when this team is at least 3 years away? Same thing with players I really like, such as Des Bryant and John Greco?

This is the perfect year to play a whole lot of youngsters, and let them grow together.


LOL you are suggesting sending privates into battle without their NCO's and officers?


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What I am suggesting is there is little sense keeping a 30+ year old player over a newly drafted player if your goal is to be competitive in 2-3 years. Those 30+ year old players are not going to be able to help you when you become a competitive team, and in fact, you may even create additional holes that could have been filled by a drafted player.

The coaches coach. They develop players.

Now, I get that if our goal is to win as many games as possible this year, at the expense of developing players, then we should start these older players. Sure we cut, and may lose many players who we hoped to put on the practice squad, but if we are in the "win now" mindset, then that is an acceptable loss.

However, we are not there right now. Younger players must supplant older ones if our goal is to win consistently in 3 years. That is why we have already let so many older players go. It's a process that is not at its end.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

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Originally Posted By: YTownBrownsFan
What I am suggesting is there is little sense keeping a 30+ year old player over a newly drafted player if your goal is to be competitive in 2-3 years. Those 30+ year old players are not going to be able to help you when you become a competitive team, and in fact, you may even create additional holes that could have been filled by a drafted player.

The coaches coach. They develop players.

Now, I get that if our goal is to win as many games as possible this year, at the expense of developing players, then we should start these older players. Sure we cut, and may lose many players who we hoped to put on the practice squad, but if we are in the "win now" mindset, then that is an acceptable loss.

However, we are not there right now. Younger players must supplant older ones if our goal is to win consistently in 3 years. That is why we have already let so many older players go. It's a process that is not at its end.


I guess it depends on the player, but veterans control the locket room, also Kruger was a big help to Orchard last season. I would call him a bridge player this season and who knows after that. If Ogbah progresses at a rapid rate then I could see us leting him walk.
Jmo.

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Originally Posted By: FL_Dawg
If Ogbah progresses at a rapid rate then I could see us leting him walk.


IMO he's a long way off. He's one player I really didn't want. Hopefully I'm wrong


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Originally Posted By: Dawgs4Life
Originally Posted By: FL_Dawg
If Ogbah progresses at a rapid rate then I could see us leting him walk.


IMO he's a long way off. He's one player I really didn't want. Hopefully I'm wrong


I agree I think Ogbah has a chance to be that one player people will point too when they want to be critical of analytics... like you I hope I am wrong.


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I just wanted to say that I read this quote out of context..

Quote:
Originally Posted By: FL_Dawg

If Ogbah progresses at a rapid rate then I could see us leting him walk.


...and thought we were talking about getting Comp picks for the guys we just drafted already..


Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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j/c...

I just don't get this need to trade JOE THOMAS. He is our Star...he has a good 3-5 years of Prime play left in him.

Greco...5 years of good prime play in him.

Kruger I sort of get - in the case that we will not look to sign him when his contract is up.

First OL? what additions. We did not invest high this year. Last years investment is our starting Center. This year we made one investment to be vying for the RT job. 3/5th of our OL will be very young...I don't understand your claim of ridding the other 2 to play just who!

How are we to develop a rookie QB or help a talented young QB to find himself and make a comeback by getting rid of TWO GOOD/GREAT Starters and play just WHO?

Why have you taken the tude that this season is over all ready and why play to win???

Why did you not state Get rid of Hartline and Hawkins...and let those youths play...heck sell off Barnidge as he is a 30 guy...with him at a high point?

Nah...only the OLINE that has to do with controlling the LOS. That has to do with giving all these young Impact players the OPPORTUNITY TO SUCCEED...Why cause they don't have the glory and stats???

We got rid of old talent that we just do not want to have here. Bowe, Whittner, Dansby why must it be ALL of those in that bracket.

I'm just confused. Sorry but this regime, FO and Coaching staff alike. Are looking to win in 2016. What are we the freaking French...just surrendering when the war didn't even start?

Where's Blutowski?


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Originally Posted By: YTownBrownsFan
Quote:
The Browns have a lot of players to evaluate this year and they can't keep them all.


Why? We want to get younger, and this season is the perfect year to play and evaluate a lot of young players.

What good does it do to play 30 year old Paul Kruger, for instance, when this team is at least 3 years away? Same thing with players I really like, such as Des Bryant and John Greco?

This is the perfect year to play a whole lot of youngsters, and let them grow together.


I get that. But we still won't keep them all. My point was...I sure hope they get the evaluation process's right and the FO doesn't just keep players on potential or a gut feeling because it was their guy in this draft.


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The German's bombed Pear Harbor? tongue


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Originally Posted By: ThatGuy
I just wanted to say that I read this quote out of context..

Quote:
Originally Posted By: FL_Dawg

If Ogbah progresses at a rapid rate then I could see us leting him walk.


...and thought we were talking about getting Comp picks for the guys we just drafted already..


grin


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Hawkins will be 30 this year. He was injured most of last season, including 2 concussions, which has to be a concern when combined with age and size. He averaged only 10.2 yards on 27 catches, (the worst average of his career) and had no TD last year. He considered retirement this past off-season.

I love the guy's heart, but there are some major concerns here. The Browns drafted guys who seem to be specifically intended to replace him. I do not see him making the final roster.


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Originally Posted By: PerfectSpiral
The German's bombed Pear Harbor? tongue

Forget it, he's on a roll.


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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Originally Posted By: PrplPplEater
Originally Posted By: PerfectSpiral
The German's bombed Pear Harbor? tongue

Forget it, he's on a roll.


Simply a history revisionist. We, here at DT, know what that's all about... naughtydevil


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Victor Ochi and Jeremy Cash will be the most successful UDFA in the class.

Tracy Howard will be our top UDFA.

Jacksonville had easily the best draft in the NFL, particularly for their scheme and needs.

Coleman will be fine, but we will regret passing on Treadwell.

Kindred over KJ Dillon will be regrettable, as well.

Schobert will play (defense) exclusively inside by the time the season rolls around.

Philadelphia's 1st round pick will be in the top 3 next year, as will San Francisco's.

Three years from now Jared Goff, Cardale Jones, Brandon Allen, and Brandon Doughty will be the only QBs from this draft starting for the teams that drafted them.

The Denver Broncos' draft will be considered a disaster. Miami's will be sneaky-bad, as they selected zero front-7 players and have a whole bunch of old or bad guys in that group with huge contract numbers. Pittsburgh is right there with them.

While the Ravens got some major steals in Henry and Dixon in the 4th, the Vikings have the biggest trio of mega value picks in Treadwell (23), Alexander (54), and Kearse (244).

Devin Lucien will be one of the 6 best WRs from this draft, despite being taken in the seventh round.

Even if he ends up not being a starter this season, Robert Nkemdiche will be the best player in this draft class.

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Originally Posted By: PrplPplEater
Originally Posted By: PerfectSpiral
The German's bombed Pear Harbor? tongue

Forget it, he's on a roll.


'Cause when the goin' gets tough......................(Pause trying to remember)..............................................................................(oh yeah).......................the tough get goin'!


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Originally Posted By: PerfectSpiral
Originally Posted By: PrplPplEater
Originally Posted By: PerfectSpiral
The German's bombed Pear Harbor? tongue

Forget it, he's on a roll.


'Cause when the goin' gets tough......................(Pause trying to remember)..............................................................................(oh yeah).......................the tough get goin'!



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Originally Posted By: YTownBrownsFan
Quote:
The Browns have a lot of players to evaluate this year and they can't keep them all.


Why? We want to get younger, and this season is the perfect year to play and evaluate a lot of young players.

What good does it do to play 30 year old Paul Kruger, for instance, when this team is at least 3 years away? Same thing with players I really like, such as Des Bryant and John Greco?

This is the perfect year to play a whole lot of youngsters, and let them grow together.

There is something to be said for having some semblance of veteran leadership on the field, in the locker room, etc. I'm all for developing the youth but without some veteran presence, they could just be developing and reinforcing bad habits.


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Some coaches would agree with you, but others say, "coaches coach and players play."

I suspect that Hue falls more towards the latter than the former.


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I dislike the term "Bridge" player. A bridge player makes it easy for another player to get to the starting lineup. I infer that a "bridge" player is contradictory to the idea of competition.

I liked the idea of keeping the O-Line veterans on staff. If they are beaten out by a rookie, all the better. I liked the idea of replacing the veteran oft injured receivers. You drafted receivers. You do not need them all to be better than the Hawkins and Hartline. You only need the production to be better as a group. If you want to keep one veteran receiver, I can see possibly keeping one but not all of them.

Paul "Bridge" Kruger, he is only waiting to be beaten out for a OLB spot. His production in the past is not going to keep his roster spot. I do not see him beating 4 other OLB's out for a roster spot.

I am not certain about the DB situation for the Browns. I cannot see Tramon Williams beating another player for a CB spot if the team carries only 5 CB. If the team feels either of the safeties can also be a cover safety, I do not see a 6th CB being kept.

I see no purpose to having Josh McCown on the roster. He fills no role if you believe in competition. If Josh McCown starts for the Browns in 2016, the season is in trouble and winning games is the least of the teams worries. If winning is unlikely under McCown, why not use Kessler or even Davis? I have heard the "bridge" term used with McCown and good in the locker room. Coaching will get the best out of the players. Winning and playing together will create a positive locker room. Josh McCown is only a reminder of a 3 and 13 season.

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Originally Posted By: Voleur
I dislike the term "Bridge" player. A bridge player makes it easy for another player to get to the starting lineup. I infer that a "bridge" player is contradictory to the idea of competition.

I liked the idea of keeping the O-Line veterans on staff. If they are beaten out by a rookie, all the better. I liked the idea of replacing the veteran oft injured receivers. You drafted receivers. You do not need them all to be better than the Hawkins and Hartline. You only need the production to be better as a group. If you want to keep one veteran receiver, I can see possibly keeping one but not all of them.

Paul "Bridge" Kruger, he is only waiting to be beaten out for a OLB spot. His production in the past is not going to keep his roster spot. I do not see him beating 4 other OLB's out for a roster spot.

I am not certain about the DB situation for the Browns. I cannot see Tramon Williams beating another player for a CB spot if the team carries only 5 CB. If the team feels either of the safeties can also be a cover safety, I do not see a 6th CB being kept.

I see no purpose to having Josh McCown on the roster. He fills no role if you believe in competition. If Josh McCown starts for the Browns in 2016, the season is in trouble and winning games is the least of the teams worries. If winning is unlikely under McCown, why not use Kessler or even Davis? I have heard the "bridge" term used with McCown and good in the locker room. Coaching will get the best out of the players. Winning and playing together will create a positive locker room. Josh McCown is only a reminder of a 3 and 13 season.



Well like it or not they will need a bridge to get to the other side of the river until they learn to swim.

It doesn't infer that their is no competition.

The objective is to win games. Right ... So what gives you the best chance today might not be the case tomorrow.


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To add to FL's response, it often happens that veteran players help the coaching process. The coach defines what needs to be done, the veteran players demonstrate, or helps the rookie understand how, translating words into action.


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Originally Posted By: Voleur
I dislike the term "Bridge" player. A bridge player makes it easy for another player to get to the starting lineup. I infer that a "bridge" player is contradictory to the idea of competition.

I liked the idea of keeping the O-Line veterans on staff. If they are beaten out by a rookie, all the better. I liked the idea of replacing the veteran oft injured receivers. You drafted receivers. You do not need them all to be better than the Hawkins and Hartline. You only need the production to be better as a group. If you want to keep one veteran receiver, I can see possibly keeping one but not all of them.

Paul "Bridge" Kruger, he is only waiting to be beaten out for a OLB spot. His production in the past is not going to keep his roster spot. I do not see him beating 4 other OLB's out for a roster spot.

I am not certain about the DB situation for the Browns. I cannot see Tramon Williams beating another player for a CB spot if the team carries only 5 CB. If the team feels either of the safeties can also be a cover safety, I do not see a 6th CB being kept.

I see no purpose to having Josh McCown on the roster. He fills no role if you believe in competition. If Josh McCown starts for the Browns in 2016, the season is in trouble and winning games is the least of the teams worries. If winning is unlikely under McCown, why not use Kessler or even Davis? I have heard the "bridge" term used with McCown and good in the locker room. Coaching will get the best out of the players. Winning and playing together will create a positive locker room. Josh McCown is only a reminder of a 3 and 13 season.




Josh McCown > Davis > Kessler

When of the other two can outplay Josh, then you can play them. I don't think that will ever be the case with Davis and the odds aren't the greatest for Kessler.

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I hear Coach Jackson say consistently that he wants to change the culture. I cannot see changing the culture by keeping a 1-7, nearly 40 year old, back up QB as a way to change a culture.

I have heard the FO say to not sleep on Kessler. I have heard Coach Jackson say he has seen good things in Kessler. Why not Kessler then as the roster spot taken by McCown.

I agree that the player has to outplay the other players. I agree to a point this is true. I believe that if both players are equal in ability, you keep the younger of the two and see if you can improve his skills and knowledge. You have already peeked with the veteran.

I like the point of having veterans demonstrate how to do things. However, we know what McCown has as a skill set. Do we want a potential rookie to take on the characteristics of a perennial losing backup QB? I think the work ethic aspects would be better served by Joe Thomas and perhaps Joe Haden. The how to do things I leave to the coaching staff. I think it is how you change a culture more so than keeping the some of the same players and trying to fit them into a new culture. As for McCown, no matter how you slice it... you have a 2-17 QB in his last 2 seasons as a starting QB. I hate that culture.

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Just for the record we have 74 veterans on our roster.
We have 38 veterans with 3 or more experience. The majority of those will probably remain on the team.

When we come down to 53 I think we will have more rookies on the team then ever before but we should have more veterans of over 3 years experience on the team for leadership.

Position: RB...is a young position we do have Crowell with 3 years of experience.
QB: McCown w/14 years
WR: We have Hartline w/8 n Hawkins w/6 years experience.
TE: We have Barnidge w/9
OL: We have Bitonio in w/3 Greco w/9 and JT w/10

Safety:Rahim Moore w/6 years
CB: Tremon Williams w/10 and Haden w/7
LB: ILB Davis 5/years, OLB Kruger w/8
DL: Desmond Bryant w/8 and Hughes with 5.

Every tier has veterans...most will be on our team.

Claimer: the numbers stated might be this season w/experience although the rookies from last year have 2.
What confuses me is those who show 1 and its different from R shown for rookies??? If this is their first year maybe these are Rookies from last year who did not accrue a season regarding the NFL?

In any case. What I claim to be 3 year vets are going into their 3rd year. And so on and so on.

But hopefully that does not change my point of having a good representation of veterans down the line for the youngsters to get help.

jmho

Roster:
http://www.clevelandbrowns.com/team/roster.html

Last edited by eotab; 05/17/16 10:23 AM.

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Quote:
As for McCown, no matter how you slice it... you have a 2-17 QB in his last 2 seasons as a starting QB. I hate that culture.


Pretty sure RG3 will be the starter. Pretty sure McCown will be the backup. Pretty sure Kessler will be the #3.


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Originally Posted By: PerfectSpiral
Quote:
As for McCown, no matter how you slice it... you have a 2-17 QB in his last 2 seasons as a starting QB. I hate that culture.


Pretty sure RG3 will be the starter. Pretty sure McCown will be the backup. Pretty sure Kessler will be the #3.


If this HC wishes to have the strongest QB rotation that exists with the current roster while working with the rookie, this is the most logical depth chart.


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Originally Posted By: PerfectSpiral
Quote:
As for McCown, no matter how you slice it... you have a 2-17 QB in his last 2 seasons as a starting QB. I hate that culture.


Pretty sure RG3 will be the starter. Pretty sure McCown will be the backup. Pretty sure Kessler will be the #3.


That would be my guess as well. RG3 better not coast into this though because I'm pretty sure Hue was serious when he said that he had to earn the starting job.

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I still have a hard time seeing a 39 year old backup taking the place of a younger player who may develop and improve.

Also, what if Hue goes with only 2 QBs? (and I believe that the Bengals did so last year, at least until Dalton was injured)


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Originally Posted By: YTownBrownsFan
I still have a hard time seeing a 39 year old backup taking the place of a younger player who may develop and improve.


He will not be pushing Kessler from the roster, so which younger player who may develop are you thinking about?

IMO, what we've seen of Davis and Shaw are what they are. Neither one really improves us by being on the roster.


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Like I said .... the Bengals kept 2 QB until Dalton got hurt. Then they brought a kid up from their practice squad to back up McCarron.

I see no need for us to keep 3 QB when we can keep RG3 and Kessler, along with a young QBs on the practice squad. That allows us to keep an extra young player elsewhere.


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