DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2017 NFL Season 2017 NFL Draft Patrick Mahomes

His arm talent doesn't jump off the screen to me. When Kizer has his feet set, I would say he has the best arm talent in this class.
I look forward to seeing him throw at the combine side by side with the other QBs it will help me get a better gauge on it. I think Webb has easy power, where as Mahomes looks like he's 'muscling up'.

I like to use a scale of 1-5 for traits; how would you rate Mahomes on a 1-5 scale on arm strength?

Lets say that Aaron Rodgers/Jay Cutler/Cam Newton are 5s
Eli/Brady 4
Kirk Cousins 3
Fitzmagic 2
Chad Pennington is 1


Lets say that

I definitely don't agree that kizer has the best arm but that's fine. I'm pretty amazed when I watch pat with how easily he can just flick it. By your scale he is definitely a 5 but I'd suggest a 10 point scale. Theres a lot of disparity there.

I have to disagree with this.

Marino, Elway and Farve were 5's. Farve probably still is.
Flacco is 4.5, probably Big Ben, Luck, Cutler and Stafford, although Cutler has not got any game.
Brady and Rodgers are 4's..

Brees came into the league as a 3, but worked his way up to a 4. But Bress, has as good of accuracy as Brady or Rodgers.

I see this as a good QB class but its like the centers, there arent the clear cut grade A guys but there are a lot of B- guys that are going to be starting in this league and have potential to be the bell cow for the next 10 plus years.

Kizer to me, reminds me Tannehill. He has everything you look for but he needs playing time and maturity to grow with your team.

Watson is a little RG3, a little Manziel and it scares me. I see him make to many head scratching throws but again, the star potential is there and its intriguing and he could easily be the first QB off the board.

Trubisky, I see as a Matt Ryan early on in his college career. I never thought Matt would be as good as he is so its good and bad.

Mahomes, i get a bit excited when I watch this kid throw and I would not be opposed to spending our 12 overall on this kid if it falls through with Jimmy. I see a big arm, and I see some anticiaption that you dont normally see from the spread guys.

There is also Webb who I really like as a developmental guy. young Derek Anderson that if you could hone in his skills could be special. If we go for Jimmy, I would still draft Webb in the 3rd to develop.

I gotta say, Mahomes is the guy thats really making an impression the more i watch. I am starting to get that nagging Derek Carr feeling with this kid. I still want Jimmy but I could go Garrett, Mahomes, Budda Baker and Mixon with my first 4 picks and be super thrilled while mamy would be shaking their head lol

I think Watson is much further along then as a passer then Griffin was coming out. Baylor ran a variant of the air raid spread where the reads are very different and the offenses uses a lot of empty 5 wide. Clemson passing game is based on Malzahn offense which has NFL passing concepts and uses a lot shotgun doubles formations.

Mahomes on the field reminds me of plus version of Johnny with some Cutler with the way he throws.

Kizer...doesn't remind me of anyone really I can think of....if he maxes out his tools all the way Culpeper/Rothlisberger

Trubisky reminds me of a Jake Locker/Ryan Tannehill

Webb reminds me of Goff/Bradford

Just saw this on pro football focus, I hope people like it.

Is Patrick Mahomes a first-round pick?
Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes received a second-round grade from the NFL Draft Advisory Board, a fair expectation for the early enrollee. In my latest mock draft, I slotted Mahomes in at No. 25 overall to the Houston Texans, and given the number of QB-needy teams, it would not surprise to see Mahomes in the first-round mix. As we go through the evaluation process, a number of PFF analysts have declared Mahomes not only their favorite quarterback to watch, but potentially the top option. After grading at 80.7 overall in 2015, Mahomes improved to 90.2 in 2016, ranking fourth among Power-5 quarterbacks.

I broke down Mahomes, the rest of the draft class, and many of the free agent and trade options at quarterback in this week’s Big-Time Throwcast with former NFL quarterback Zac Robinson:

Click here for iTunes
Click here for Android
Mahomes is one of the most intriguing quarterbacks in the class as he has a great feel for the game, making a number of big throws both within and outside of structure. That also gets him into trouble as he’ll force passes and have some ugly plays, but he makes plays with his arm both from a velocity, touch and accuracy standpoint that few quarterbacks can make. The big question for him at the next level is harnessing that ability while allowing him to keep the creativity that makes him a potentially special player. On the podcast, I even compared him to a Hall of Famer from a style standpoint.

This happens almost every year and it rarely works out.

I would draft the guy in the 3rd or 4th, but to draft him in round one would be a colossal gamble of epic proportions.

I am not saying he won't get drafted in round one, because it happens almost every year, but man..........talk about risky.

I like Mahomes better than Watson, Trubisky, or Kizer. I don't want to paint myself as a QB guru, I only watched 2 games from each guy, but Mahomes impressed me most of the four. His arm strength rivals Kizer's imo, but he's much more accurate. I agree with the poster (edromeo?) who said his game reminded him of Manziel's, but I think with more of an NFL body. Mary Kay's article said he was 6-3, 215, but the site I watched film from says he's 6-3, 229. That looks right to me - he's borderline chubby, but still athletic. This guy plays the game like his hair's on fire, rarely stays in the pocket, throws off his back foot a lot, throws wrist flips to the sideline flat, throws left-handed when trying to escape a sack, throws from different arm angles, like Matt Stafford ... his mechanics are all over the place ... but there's something about him I like ... competitiveness? At 33, he'd be a great pick imo. 12 might be a reach, but who knows?

I'd be comfortable drafting him in the 3rd..

I'm warming up to him the more I watch him.

He's probably a two year project just to get him on the field, but he has some Brett Farve in him.

There we go. I am sure the posters on the boards of the other 31 teams are saying how they need to stay away from this kid because he says he would love to play for us.

And then someone else on those boards will call him lazy, or injury prone, or something else. It becomes gospel to some because "they read it somewhere" and then they speak of trading a 3rd round pick for AJ McCarron.

Happens every time ...

Better late than never. (Mary K)

With the 12th pick in 2017 NFL draft...

It's either JG or PM.

I enjoyed watching film on PM. I posted some thoughts in that thread. If we can get him with 52, I'd say that risk is worth the reward. I don't feel he can start from Day 1 and sitting him would be the best course of action. However he has a potentially very high ceiling if the flaws can be ironed out. He's an exciting guy to watch.

Personally I only feel Jimmy, Mitch, Pat and Davis Webb are our viable options to address the position but take that in the context that I'm awfully ignorant

Peyton Manning isn't in this draft.

j/c:

Sorry if this has been discussed at length (I'm not scrolling back up) but....any chance Mahomes goes #12? Tons of media/analysts have been talking about him recently as a first rounder which can sometimes mean they're catching up to what teams already think of him.

WED MAR. 1, 2017
The Draft’s Rorschach Test: What Will Each Team See in Patrick Mahomes?
An athletic, cannon-armed playmaker, son of a professional athlete and leader of men? Or a sloppy, reckless developmental prospect from a gimmicky offense? In a QB class full of question marks, Mahomes has emerged as the most fascinating passer in the draft. And every evaluator will see something different

CARLSBAD, Calif. — First it was the video from spring ball: Patrick Mahomes coolly executing a no-look pass. “Doing his best Aaron Rodgers impersonation,” Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury posted on Twitter. A few weeks later, another video surfaced: Mahomes, both knees on the turf, launching a perfect spiral 65 yards. It felt as if everyone around Mahomes was trying to sell the skeptics on his talent.

The QB class of 2017 includes some typical prospects: the Golden Dome legacy (DeShone Kizer), the late-bloomer with the big arm (Mitch Trubisky) and the college superstar whose game has been dissected under a microscope (Deshaun Watson). Most years, teams would overlook the up-and-down gunslinger carrying the Air Raid stigma, brand him as a developmental prospect and relegate him to Day 3. But none of the usual suspects have solidified themselves as a Round 1 pick. And now, with the draft two months away, it seems NFL front offices are opening their mind to Mahomes.

The 21-year-old has the rugged frame (6' 3", 230 pounds), the MLB-caliber arm (literally) and enough charisma to convince teams he can buck a growing list of Air Raid flops. In the past six months, he has risen to become a legitimate first-round option. “I think people will have to wonder if they’re talking themselves into loving him because it’s a generally weak class,” says an AFC personnel man. “But as you watch his tape, you see this kid has traits that are just special. His footwork needs work and there are mechanical issues to sort out, but his potential is exciting.”

Mahomes has the face of a teenager but carries himself like a much older man. He maintains eye contact and talks fast; his Texas drawl is accentuated by unrelenting energy. And as he details his journey, you’re inclined to believe every promise he makes. For his entire life, Mahomes has been precociously assertive.
“It’s understandable why people would think I’m just another Air Raid guy, not ready for [the pros],” he says. “Quarterbacks who came from our system haven’t done well in the NFL; that’s a fact.
“At the combine, I am going to show NFL teams that I am ready to play Day 1. Everyone knows I can make the throws, but I’m smarter than people think. I know these NFL concepts. I’m not a project.”
* * *

The elder Mahomes, a 6' 4" right-hander, would pitch seven more seasons for five different teams in the majors, and bounced around the minor leagues for another five seasons after that. Little Pat followed. When he was 2 ½, the family moved to Puerto Rico for winter ball, bunking with his godfather, LaTroy Hawkins. Hawkins spent 21 seasons in the majors, first as a top prospect in the starting rotation, then as a shutdown reliever. And for one winter, he served as Little Pat’s personal waiter.

Little Pat would wake up at 2 a.m. crying for Hawkins, with a specific request. Troy! Troy! French fries! I want them now!

“He knew there was a Burger King across the street,” Hawkins says. “And he knew it was open 24 hours.” Hawkins usually obliged. Pat ate the fries, then fell back asleep immediately. Their bond remained strong, Hawkins serving as a mentor as Little Pat became a star in his own right.

Mahomes spent the school year in East Texas and summers on the road. He took batting practice with Alex Rodriguez, fielded ground balls with Derek Jeter. “Now that I’m older I realize that stuff wasn’t normal,” he says. When he was 9, Mahomes not only made the 11-and 12-year-old travel team, he was the starting shortstop.
When Mahomes Sr. retired from baseball and began coaching youth basketball, his son was the star. But in seventh grade, Mahomes began playing football, invigorating a passion.

He was a high school quarterback, but when he attended his first camp, at the University of Texas, the coaches said he could be a great safety. And so goes the story, now retold lovingly by Pat Sr., of a conversation between father and son during the car ride back from Austin: The elder Mahomes asked his son why he was messing around playing football when his true talent was on the diamond. The younger Mahomes’ fastball was clocked at 95 miles per hour. All 30 MLB teams had sent scouts to see him. In one meeting, an MLB scout told the 17-year-old his base projected earnings in baseball, his worst-case scenario, would be $1.6 million for his career.
“My dad played football in high school, he was all-state, but he never really loved it,” Mahomes says. “But for me, football was my love.”

Hawkins wanted Mahomes to make the best decision. He consulted Mike Larson, a veteran MLB scout. “With a kid like that,” Larson said, “baseball is not as big of a deal, it comes naturally. But if he wants to be a professional in football, he will have to sacrifice the next step and focus completely on football. He’s going to need to be entirely invested.”

“Once we told him that,” Hawkins recalled. “He was entirely invested in football.”
The Tigers drafted Mahomes in the 37th round of the 2014 draft. Their scouting director called with a message: “We know you’re probably not coming. We just figured we’d give it a shot.”
Mahomes said thank you, and that the assumption was correct: He was dead set on moving to Lubbock, where he would play quarterback for Texas Tech.

Mahomes’ collegiate statistics were gaudy. Last year, as a junior, he threw for 5,052 yards, completing 65.7 percent of his passes, with 41 touchdowns and 10 interceptions over 12 games. He averaged 49 pass attempts per game. That includes the backyard football bonanza against Oklahoma in October, when Mahomes set a single-game FBS record with 819 yards of offense, accumulated over 100 plays (88 passes, 12 runs), along with seven touchdowns (five passing, two running). Oklahoma won, 66-59. Even Mahomes didn’t realize the absurdity until midway through the fourth quarter when his freshman-year roommate, wideout Hunter Rittimann, accurately reported: “Dude, you have like 700 passing yards.” Mahomes claims his arm wasn’t sore the next day—“I think pitching conditioned my arm”—though he threw for a season-low 206 yards the following week, in a double-overtime win at TCU.

Here’s the first thing that gives evaluators pause. The Red Raiders run a variation of the Air Raid offense, popularized by former coach Mike Leach (Kliff Kingsbury, Tech’s current coach, played quarterback under Leach). It’s a quarterback-friendly system, pass-happy and full of quick-strike plays, leading to huge (and what many would call inflated) statistical outputs. According to most NFL evaluators, the system doesn’t translate to the pros because it’s so heavy on predetermined reads.

This is met with defensiveness from some. As Leach told me in October: “I think the knock on the Air Raid is just a cop out. If a guy who played in that system falls short, people use this as an excuse to their own convenience, saying what we’re doing is a trick or something different or whatever.” Adds the AFC personnel man: “We’ve scouted enough guys from those systems to know what you’re looking for is traits and a capacity to learn. It’s hard to generalize why it sometimes doesn’t work out. It’s an inexact science. But there is a steep curve of what they’re asked to do for us versus what their responsibilities were in college.”

Indeed, NFL evaluators concede that the volume of passes isn’t the problem, but rather other stylistic differences that don’t translate to the NFL, specifically commanding a huddle and taking snaps from under center. And while Mahomes will need to learn to work the huddle—he previously used signals to relay plays—he is quick to make this point: “Kingsbury made us take snaps under center every single day at practice, just so we were comfortable there. We didn’t want to have any miscues anytime we did it. We ran some NFL stuff. I didn’t do any three- or five- or seven-step drops from under center, but we did some play-actions, we did some handoffs, some bootlegs.”

An NFL scout who studied Mahomes’ tape said that while he was under center some, it was sparingly and usually in short-yardage situations. Mike Sheppard, the longtime NFL assistant who is tutoring Mahomes, is working on his five- and seven-step drops and rhythm throws, separating the drop from the throw. Mahomes says he had a little bit of an extra step in his left foot because of being used to the shotgun, a habit he fixed in about two weeks.

Another thing Mahomes will stress in Indianapolis: He had more responsibilities in Lubbock than you think. Kingsbury allowed Mahomes to begin checking plays at line of scrimmage during the quarterback’s sophomore year, and by last year Mahomes could check any play he wanted. In fact, Kingsbury’s sideline signals were an exception—he used them only when he wanted Mahomes to keep his play no matter what. A scout said that is unusual for a college spread quarterback. It was a virtue of Mahomes starting 28 games.

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/03/01/nfl-d...-round-prospect

This is a partial quote of a post I made way back on page 2 of this thread.
I stand by my evaluation of this game but feel I need to add an addendum.
I was listening to a podcast about Qb prospects yesterday (sorry I don't have a link)
They pointed out that Mahomes played the WV game with an injured throwing shoulder
I don't know how much that affected things but I feel I needed to add that tidbit of information.

I am resigned to the fact that we will look to the draft to address the QB position. I hold out hope on Jimmy. Other options (Taylor, Watson, Trub, Kizer) do not seem appealing to me.

If someone put a gun to my head and forced me to draft a QB in round 1, it would be Trub. But I think a 2nd on Mahomes would be easier to accept than a 1st on Trub (or anyone else).

For the guys who told me mahomes arm was nothing special. He tied the record for velocity at the combine

Who told you that?

I can't remember what thread, but crfs posted a tweet from Dane Brugler listing the pass velocities from the combine. Mahomes was the highest with 60 mph. I don't know if that's the record, but this site showed 60 as the highest recorded from '08-'16, attained by Bryan Bennett and Logan Thomas.

Who are those two guys playing for in the NFL?

Honestly, I've never heard of Bennett, and Thomas was only drafted because of his size and arm, I believe he's out of football. I never said anything about them being good QB's I was only answering the question for predator when you asked his source; Dane Brugler via cfrs.

I wasn't getting on your case. I can see how it came across that way after re-reading my own post. But, I promise I wasn't.

I am just not a fan of Mahomes. Terrible mechanics, undisciplined, a long, long-term project that will most likely flame out.

I think he is being way over-hyped because this qb class sucks so bad.

Mahomes clearly has the best arm of the group. It's honestly Rodgers-esque. The fact that he doesn't set his feet often and can still throw like that is scary from a developmental point of view. Kid has the best arm talent in the draft.

Yes he does, but he needs a ton of work with his mechanics and footwork. I like him if we got him in the 3rd but folks are saying he will go in the first.....wouldn't touch him there.

The only guy that could make since in round 1 is Trubisky and the lack of experience is a concern there as well.

I hate piling on the guy, but I truly think he sucks. His accuracy is putrid.

I'm watching him at the Combine and hoping he changes my mind. What's he do.............he threw a bunch of outs to the inside of the WR. That is w/out pressure or a defense. Are you serious? His accuracy issues are a tremendous concern.

The only thing I'll say in his defense is when I seen him live most of his problems with accuracy were mechanical and not anticipation related. Mechanical can potentially/eventually be fixed maybe...lol.

Guys like Kizer who have no anticipation can't be fixed imo. Having said all that I think he's a developmental guy who SHOULD be drafted in the middle rounds and developed. Unfortunately somebody is going to over draft him about two rounds to soon and ruin him.

To me Webb is a middle guy who has every bit of potential as Mahomes but isn't getting the buzz right now

There were multiple people who jumped on me for saying he had a Stafford level natural arm even going as far as to say his arm was average.

And on your later post I understand why you don't care for him. We value a few things differently and I in no way champion for the guy. He's just the only one I think has the potential to be a franchise level guy out of this class, albeit a small shot. His natural feel for putting the ball exactly where it needs to be especially considering his lack of consistent mechanics is very huge for me. I know why you say he isn't accurate but I see a guy who is naturally accurate and anticipates better than many college qbs I've ever seen. like many big arm qbs he makes a lot of throws that drop a jaw both good and bad but he shows me signs. Either way I'd still go Jimmy but mahomes is my top draftee.

Not sure that you include me in the group that jumped all over you...but I still don't see the Stafford level arm talent. Good arm sure, occasionally pulls off some wow throws but I still think Webb and Kizer have the best pure arm strength in this class. And I would put his arm on par w/ Trubs and just ahead of Watson. A guy that I think has a really big arm is the Pipkin kid.

But you are right about the velocity numbers from the combine. I haven't been able to find out but do you know how the velocity is measured at the combine?

What did you think of PMs throwing session at the combine?

I honestly dont remember who all it was. Doesnt really matter im just saying. I haven't gotten to watch much lately. Admittedly I cooled on him quit a bit when I saw his hand measurements. Been work 80hrs a week lately and just get on here during breaks for info. Not enough down time for tape study.

I think that Mahomes will be the best QB from this years class....looking back in a few years.

I don't think you're taking mechanics into consideration. Why does Webb and Kizer have a better arm than him? Mahomes makes all those throws while looking like a short stop. He doesn't plant his feet, he just chucks it. Dude clearly has the best arm in the draft*. The question is, how long will it take to develop him? If someone could stash him away for three years or maybe even 2, they might have themselves a mighty fine QB.


*And is fixable. Sorry Kizer

Yeah I hear you the combine is too long to sit through the whole thing but youtube has some portions distilled:


He throws with the 1st group ~5:00-9:00 ish


btw-I'm not saying Mahomes is a 'bad' prospect.

He def could become something in the NFL, they all could.

Mahomes has a lot of uncertainty to go along with his physical skillset. I do like his natural 'feel' and his adlib ability. But in the NFL he's gonna have to temper that with more discipline. In his throwing mechanics, in his footwork, in his dropbacks and that's on top of making the transition from air-raid spread to pro-style. I'm not saying that he can/can't do it. I have no idea and no vantage point to gauge his football IQ or work ethic etc. When I rank/evaluate QBs I stick to rubric of traits and as much as I like his adlib and gunslinger mentality there are other areas that he objectively is behind some of the other QBs.

Well, they're whacked if they told you he doesn't have a good arm. I don't think that is disputable.

We just totally disagree on how good he is. And frankly, I don't care for his attitude and how he plays the game.

I better clarify that last part. He's fun to watch, but if I am drafting a qb for "my team," I don't want fun. I want a guy who is going to do what it takes to win games.

I don't think Mahmoes is that guy.

As far as the accuracy thing.......let's just say that we are world's apart. I am not bashing you. It's just opinion and I respect your opinions because I know you actually watch guys and don't make crap up, but dawg.........you simply can't throw out routes to the inside of the receiver. That is perhaps the biggest no-no in the history of mankind. LOL