DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2017 NFL Season 2017 NFL Draft Patrick Mahomes

So, "multiple" = 2. Haha.

I recall reading a poll from the owners meetings that said 9 have watson, 8 trub and 3 Mahomes so you are close. The rest are undecided.

I think Pat has the most upside, because if he accepts coaching the sky is the limit. The arm, quick release, and pocket presence are very good. The accuracy is spotty when he doesn't set his feet, and the mechanics need work big time. All in all out of this group I like him the most.

Coming out of college I like him as much or more than any QB not named Wentz last year. I am officially a Pat Mahomes pimp I guess (providing there is something resembling value when we pick him).


My top 3 QBs (and the only 3 I would touch in this draft)...

Pat
Trubs
Webb

After watching some tape (albeit cut up YouTube tape that is not the best) I like Pat the most, and Trubs next. I would be happy with either at 33, and wouldn't want to, but wouldn't freak out if we traded back into round 1 to get the guy we want. Webb is a 2/20 at the highest for me as he shows flashes but is awful inconsistent.

I’m curious because I keep reading people post that Pat has the most upside and I really want to understand what this means. Is it something in his physical skillset or traits playing style that the other prospects don’t have?
When someone says QB X has the most upside what does it actually mean?

If I had to guess right now it seems like:
~Mahomes makes a bunch of adlib plays and has a strong arm = most upside

I guess I don’t understand what this means and I’ll just have to live with it.

I’m with you on the arm and quick release. Pocket presence…I don’t know. He seems eager to bail from the pocket. And again I agree about his feet and mechanics...which I think are a big deal when it comes to evaluation.

If I had to pick the QB I like the most it would be Pipkin from Tiffin, but I don’t expect him to be drafted until 7-UDFA and I don’t think he’s the best QB in the draft. He’s a project. He’s on the short side, comes from an air-raid spread and plays D-II. But the kid has a big time arm, is a big time athlete and playmaker.

This play below kinda sums up why I like Pipkin:

It means (at least to me) he has the most natural talent. His issues aren't with arm talent, lack of athleticism, anticipation on throws etc. Pat's issues are of a mental or repetition (coaching) nature, and if he ever figures that part out the sky is the limit.

Guys like Kizer have the ideal size, athleticism, but really struggle with their anticipation......wouldn't draft him because of this.

Guys like Watson have a noodle arm.......wouldn't draft him because of this.

Trubs has a ton of "upside" because his issues are much like PM and aren't of a physical nature. I wouldn't argue with someone who said his upside was as high as Pat's...I just like Pat a little better because of the big arm and quick release.

Basically exactly what Willie said. When I refer to upside it's a combination of established blue chip trait quantities and what of his non blue traits are coachable. If the lacking traits are coachable or inherited are of great concern. It's why I'm not a huge fan of trub or kizer and even less so Watson. I see a severe lack in blue chip traits in this class in general but imo Pat has not only the most but the best combination of inheriTed traits vs coachable traits. I remember you breaking down qbs into charts before Ed but if you could post one I could reference where I differ in my approach.

Being what specifically? Arm talent? and.......what else?

To me natural talent refers to something tangible or some ability.

Size is a physical trait does he have the best frame? I would say no. Kizer/Webb have the best 'upside' in terms of frame/filling out. I would argue that both Trubs and Watson have better frames.

Arm talent? I think Kizer has the most. When I look at arm talent I want to see velocity without build-up. To be clear Mahomes has a strong arm but I also see him muscle up or hitch up or crow-hop to generate some of his 'heaters'. But then I also have to factor in consistency into arm talent because while both Mahomes and Kizer have strong arms they inconsistencies limit them imo. But lets say he's tied with Kizer and Webb for me.

Athleticism? I would say Watson, Trubs, Kizer and Pipkin are all superior athletes.

Playmaking? Mahomes does make a lot of adlib/improvisational plays but he's also actively seeks/causes them as opposed to making a play when the play breaks down. Watson to me is the best playmaker followed by Pipkin and Kizer/Trubs and Mahomes are kinda clumped together for me.

I think its a projection to comment on Pat anticipation because of the air-raid system. He does show some anticipation in that offense but those concepts (along w/ Cal) least mirror NFL offenses.

Maybe...but even within the structure and coaching of his college offense he lacked discipline so maybe discipline is also an issue? And those issues he needs to figure out are very hard to figure out.

I can get not liking a prospect for something specific you dislike in their game. But since the crux of the discussion is about talent/upside/ how can you mention 2 traits that are indicative of talent/upside in regard to Kizer but you dismiss them? It seems fair to me that if you are praising Mahomes based on upside and minimizing his flaws that you should at least acknowledge that Kizer also has the physical traits that constitute upside BUT he also displays flaw that make him a risky a boom/bust prospect so to speak.

Lol, you really think Watson has a noodle arm? um okay lol....

And out of curiosity of others process i'm asking what are the traits that constitute upside for you?


Its hard to talk evaluation process in abstract but here we are so here I go......
I think its important in the evaluation process to see in college some of what you expect to see from the prospect in the NFL. I readily believe that any prospect will have to become far better in the pros then they were in college to have success so there is an unknown element of 'upside' or physical traits or potential. But you still want to see on film traits which you can relate to what they're gonna be asked to do. And in the evaluation process you have to weigh them both like you said inherited vs coachable. But for me in my evaluation process its much easier to assess and quantify what I can see them do that I think translate to the NFL vs tools/upside which may or may not equate to production in the NFL.

I have run right now but will pull it up later

I hope that answers properly. I wish I had a home computer to write these responses better as writing is not my strong suit and even less so when I can only see 5 lines of type at a time and have to continually scroll.

It was an article from Casserly where he talked to 22 NFL GMs.

9 for Watson

8 for Trub

2 for Mahomes

Rest undecided.

Also..........not trying to be a goof here.............but, I have a huge problem when a qb has accuracy issues, takes off out of the pocket too early, and ad libs an inordinate amount of plays

FWIW

I heard that after every practice Mahomes would stick around and practice taking snaps from under center in case he would ever need it in a game.

My bad I thought it was 3 but thanks for the clarification. And you are entitled to your opinion Vers. Unless im mistaken you don't really prefer any of them right? I may laud for mahomes over all and disagree with you to an extent on parts of his game but fwiw he's still not even in my top 15 for sure and possibly even top 20 or 25 (hit a stall lately on tape with my schedule). This class is just way too strong defensively and at the skill positionset to even consider a qb not named Jimmy with 12. IMO the top 10 qbs aren't that far apart though I do think it's actually pretty deep for qb in general just no studs.

You gotta fix that link, man. The screen is all messed up.

That is what cut and pasted.
Deleted it but now you will have to accept my word without a link

I believe you.

I have Trub ranked highest on my board followed by Watson. My board keeps fluctuating, but I have Trub ranked at 22 right now. I have Watson at 33.

Mahomes and Kizer have big-time upside, but both scare the crap out of me and I probably would not draft them before round 4. I think both have the biggest bust potential if they are taken high.

I do like some of the other guys........Peterman and Webb in the 4th.

I could be way off on this one, but Josh Dobbs intrigues me a bit if he is available in the 5th or 6th.

Thanks vers
I've never had a link copy like that.

It's audioboom #137 if anyone cares

Anyway, I think it's pretty cool that he does that and gives me a good impression of him.

I just turned on NFL Network and Mahomes is on the screen. Dude has ZERO pressure, and he leaves the pocket. Why? Next clip has him dropping back, feet moving out of whack...never saw a taught drop like that, and he floats the ball up into the endzone w/both feet almost completely parallel to the LOS.

Goodness!

You realize none of those show a strong arm right? 2 medium passes one of which has slow ball speed. The third is a hail mary so slow the WR has to turn around and wait for it. If anything it shows a weaker arm.

Should have been practicing his footwork within the pocket.

I think the footwork goes back to the baseball background. He didn't start football until 7th grade, but he grew up in MLB clubhouses.

As far as the bailing from the pocket, I'm not sure what the deal is. I'm not sure if he's feeling ghosts or if it goes back to coaching. It kind of looks like he spends/spent a lot of time watching Manziel film. I think Kingsbury is a good recruiter, but I'm not sure how great of a coach he is. Mahomes kind of reminds me of the football version of Kyrie. Falls into Hero ball to often. Part of it is it seems like the team needs him to.

When there is pressure, Mahomes is pretty good at avoiding it. He can stand in the pocket and fire strikes with pressure bearing down, but he did seem to avoid it more after he got banged up.

Going back to Manziel, I do think it's a decent comparison play style-wise. He strikes me as a bigger version without the off the field problems. A bit of the same charisma.

There is bust potential, but I like him the best of the options. Seems to have fewer limitations than Trubisky and Watson, and something about Kizer just puts me off him. I guess I don't like the way he (Kizer) handles adversity. Some of that may be his coach.

Umm...I don't know what to say at this point.

I guess everyone is entitled to their opinion.

While I understand and embrace that there is degree of subjectivity and preference when it comes to evaluation at the same time I believe there are some things that are objective.

To me when you say that none of the above passes shows a strong arm and your claim that the last throw shows a weaker arm I'm taken aback and scratching my head.



The ball is spotted on the far hash mark. Watson throws a deep comeback to the far sideline caught 2 yards past the line to gain or 16 yard from the LOS. This type of throw a deep sideline out/comeback from the opposite hash mark is considered by many to be the litmus test throw from arm strength. Watsons begins the throw from a depth of ~8 yards. Somebody that like math can tell you the actual distance of the throw but I heard some coaches refer to this as 'a country mile'.



This throw is from the near hash but its another deep out/comeback. Has a defender bearing down on him and throws ~17 yards past the LOS beginning from a depth of ~8 yards.

This is a throw which you said shows a weaker arm.

Watson is near the sideline at the ~38 yard line. While under duress throws to middle of the field ~3 yard line.

Maybe I'm off.

Any other thoughts from the thread?

Do these throws show a week arm?

Do these throws meet the narrative put forth by BigWillieStyle of a noodle arm?

Kinda. I know everyone has traits which they consider to show 'upside'. I covered what I consider those traits to be my previous post. But its not about what I consider as upside traits....

My question is to those people that favor Mahomes because of 'upside' what are those traits that they looking at that define upside for them.

Hit me up via pm about my ranking chart.

btw-good convo

Ok that's what I figured. Yeah I can't really speak for them. I hate the term upside in general honestly. I much prefer floor and ceiling. Upside is just too broad and generic to give a good sense of what you're trying to portray imo.

Especially when I discuss things with people who aren't as well versed in tape it leads to better discussion. Such as today I was talking about Howard with a guy at work. Instead of telling him he's a stud te from bama with athleticism and high upside blah blah I gave him a range of (barring major injury) where he should fall as a pro best and worst case scenario. My opinion being Jermaine Gresham worst and really unlimited ceiling but in the mold of a Tony Gonzo type player. It's over simplified but it does tend to help with discussion I think.

Not to pick on you but these are not very good video quality as they are not playing at real speed so it makes it look slower than it is.

The first one is just a medium pass of about 20 yards vertically but he throws it poorly to the point the guy is lunging to catch what should be a simple and easy pass. It also takes too long to get there. It a prime example of why I don't like his ball placement skills too.

The second one is not to bad but again the receivers always seem to be forced to come back to the ball instead of being able to catch in stride or to be led with the ball. Even with him coming back for it , it almost hits the ground when the WR has to scoop it up. It also gets there so slowly the DB almost kills the WR but luckily misses the hit and stumbles or that would have been brutal.

ON the last one its a simple hail mary. No one expects these to be that accurate. My problem is that it gets there soooo slowly the WR is standing around waiting for it after he had totally burned the DBs to the point they could have intercepted it. The angle of the launch shows how tough a throw this is for him. The ball has to go very high vertically to go the distance. Scouts call that a Big ball and almost always shows a lack of arm strength except when it is used to drop the ball in the bucket. For this pass to show good arm strength you would need to see it travel on a lower trajectory and arrive in time so the receiver is not standing around waiting on the ball.

Just my $.02 but the first two appeared to be comeback routes, so the receiver...coming back to the ball is kind of the point. They were also both at least 30 yards in the air on a rope. The last one, the receiver doesn't stop as far as I can tell, it even appears that he has to jump for the ball as he's heading into the endzone becaus the overthrew him. And that was a 60 yard pass, not exactly a dink.

I'm not a huge fan of any of these QB's based on my very limited ability to watch the college game, but to say he has a "noodle" arm seems a bit disingenous. Maybe not a cannon for an arm, but "noodle"?

Lol, I can't tell if this is a put on or not....he throws it poorly?

They are both comeback routes. And not just comebacks routes they're very deep comeback routes. The receivers are supposed to comeback at angle. You can't throw a comeback route 'in stride'.

Neither receiver has to scoop the ball up nor does either ball almost hit the ground.

Ball gets there slowly sooo slowly? Lol, um okay...

Dude scrambles out of the pocket under duress is about to be hit stops at the sideline throws a TD pass to the middle of the field some ~61 yards in the air and lol you're acting like not only isn't the throw impressive you're making it out to be bad play. smh

Again, everyone is entitled to their opinions.
I don't understand how any can look at these throws or Watson in general and come away thinking he has a noodle arm or lacks arm strength....but who knew? Lol.

I'm gonna leave it the Watson arm strength convo with what Greg Gabriel (The Bears' former director of college scouting, Greg Gabriel has over 30 years of experience in NFL scouting) said:








btw-I have often heard the term Big Ball but never heard it in the context you are using it. Big Ball, when I've heard refers to a ballsy throw or a downfield bomb.

The word "snob" keeps popping into my mind when I read some of these posts.

Ed it's obvious you don't see things the way I do and that's fine.

Ask your self this question though. Why does Clemson HAVE to use sooo many comeback routes? To me it's because their QB is horrible at hitting players in stride and has poor ball placement. I mean comeback routes are not the best routes to use because it leads to WR getting hit from behind a lot from a helpless position and it absolutely kills your chances at YAC.

If this was even a halfway decent draft for QBs Watson would be a round 2 or 3 pick at best. I hope chicago loves him enough to draft him at 3 because that would let a kid with talent have a chance to land for us at 12. I think he is just blowing smoke to get someone who wants wants to inquire about trades. It's just that time of year.

Big Ball has always referred to how a weak armed QB has to throw the ball high to get it down field because on the old overhead cameras it literally got bigger because it got closer to the camera. Been hearing and using it that way for over 15 years. No biggie though.

The opposite of throwing it with a big ball is "throwing it on a rope" which as deep passes that don't need to go high in the air to go downfield and have a LOT less arc to them.

I think you are the only one who see things your way, actually I question if you are actually seeing it, or if you are just seeing what you believe in.

There was never a single question about Watson arm, the velocity stuff comes from one source that isn't even official and nobody knows how its calculated.

If anything Watson can be acused of lacking touch, lacking arm is absurd considering his accuracy and production on 40+ passes.

Again everyone is entitled to their opinions...but...

First, in a previous discussion you said you don't watch a lot of college football. Imo that doesn't give you a good vantage point to gauge whether Clemson uses comeback routes at higher frequency then is normal.

Second, I am not going to have discussion about different routes and why certain route combinations are called because you wouldn't believe me nor agree.....so its kinda seems pointless. (eg comeback routes are called when a defenses are playing coverages that 'give' them to you like a Cover 3 they are also called when a CB is concerned about getting beat deep and is 'bailing' out of their backpedal to turn and run early etc...)

Suffice it to say that I strongly disagree with almost everything we've discussed and I think some of your thoughts are...well....subjective.

Anywho....did you ever look at the vid I posted in the Watson film breakdown thread where Matt Waldman discusses some of the same plays we discussed?

Watson can have a good career but I see a small ball QB that may have a slightly better arm than Kessler but he takes to many big hits, has some mid range accuracy issues. In this system we need a big arm and I would take Davis webb at 33 over Watson if both are there.

Watson small?????

Webb is an intriguing prospect... I kind of like big Arm QB's, but it has all to do with decision making.

There is nothing worst than a big arm QB that is indecisive (Weeden)...

To make a comp I see Watson as plussed up version of Andy Dalton. So it depends on which direction the passing game goes. Dalton has been very productive with Hue.

I like Webb too, I think he has easy arm strength. He doesn't have to muscle up to drive the ball with velocity. He's a more disciplined player then Mahomes but like Mahomes comes from air-raid spread offense and therefore has a steeper learning curve then the non-air raid QB prospects.

Andy Dalton is a fantastic comparison. Hell coming out I saw Dalton as a small ball QB that couldnt muscle it beyond 18 yards. that was pretty much his range.

To be clear I meant a better version of Dalton when I said a plussed up version. Similar college offensive concepts but imo I think Watson is bigger, more productive, bigger arm, better athlete, better playmaker.