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Kizer or Hogan: Who Should the Browns Start Next Sunday?
ON OCTOBER 10, 2017 BY KEVIN COLEIN OFFENSIVE STRATEGY, PROSPECT ANALYSIS
We have our first serious quarterback controversy in Cleveland after head coach Hue Jackson benched rookie starter DeShone Kizer and turned the reins over to second-year backup Kevin Hogan.

A day later, Jackson passed when asked whom he would choose to start at quarterback this coming Sunday, saying that he needed to go watch the tape before making that decision.

Clearly Kizer hasn’t looked great, but it’s only been five weeks. There are lots of questions that need to be asked and answered before Jackson makes his decision: Is it too early to move on? How bad has Kizer’s start been in comparison to other similar prospects? And does Hogan have a realistic shot being a long-term answer or is turning to him a waste of time?

The 2017 numbers

With a re-vamped offense line that was ranked No. 2 by Pro Football Focus in the offseason, there was a lot of hope that the Browns would have a functional offense this year, despite the relatively low draft position and inexperience of their 21-year-old rookie starter. The traditional stats show you that the passing offense has been functional, but only with Hogan under center.

Player Comp% TD% Int% Sack% Yds/Att ANY/A
K.Hogan 68.4 7.9 5.3 5.0 9.9 8.5
D.Kizer 50.9 1.9 5.7 7.0 5.4 2.6
The numbers are night and day. The most comprehensive passing efficiency stat – adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) – places Hogan slightly below league-leader Alex Smith. While Kizer’s 2.6 ANY/A is more than a yard less than the second worst mark in the league.1

Kizer has been effective rushing with 126 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. But even if we look at a stat like points added that incorporates rushing value added, Kizer still pales in comparison to the value Hogan has generated.

Player Team Pts Added Plays PA/P Pass PA Int PA PI PA Sack PA Run PA
K.Hogan CLE 5.9 47 0.13 7.4 -3.4 1.4 -0.6 1.1
D.Kizer CLE -15.7 203 -0.08 1.8 -14.9 2.9 -7.3 1.8
It a small, 47 play2 sample, Hogan has averaged slightly more points added per play than the points-added leader through five weeks, Deshaun Watson (0.13 to 0.12). Kizer looks relatively better by points added than ANY/A, with less negative per-play numbers than Mike Glennon, Jay Culter and Joe Flacco.

We shouldn’t look at these numbers are declare Hogan the best quarterback in the league and Kizer the worst, but when we’re talking about a decision linked to who will give your team the best chance to win, Hogan has the advantage.

Benching Kizer at this point could threaten his development. But you also have to consider the development of your other young offensive players. In particular, first round pick – a higher selection than Kizer – David Njoku has thrived with Hogan under center, in contrast to being a relatively inefficient receiver with Kizer.

Passer Yds/Target Target Share Rec Yds Share
K.Hogan 14.2 0.12 0.17
D.Kizer 3.9 0.07 0.06
Using history to estimate likelihood of success

While Hogan has been the superior player so far in 2017, we shouldn’t ignore the fact that Hogan was drafted much later than Kizer. In Bayesian statistics you can make effective use of small samples by combining limited evidence with a strong prior. In other words, we would be less confident that poor early results will continue for top picks, who we expect will eventually be good, than for late-round selections who haven’t had much historical success.

The first step to figuring out the likelihood that Kizer will continue to struggle or Hogan continue to thrive is to look at at historical hit rates for players drafted at their respective positions.

Football outsiders studied quarterbacks drafted from 1994-2016 and classified as “good” those who most would consider franchise quarterbacks. For quarterbacks who were selected in the second round like Kizer, the success rate was roughly 20%.3 This gives Kizer an decent evidence-free chance of success.

But when you dig further into the successes, you see that most of them were taken in the early second round. I think this is a significant difference from Kizer because an early second round selection has only had the worst teams in the NFL pass on them once, whereas Kizer saw multiple teams without a franchise quarterback pass on him twice. Therefore, it’s also relevant to look at third round quarterbacks, whose success rate is around half of second rounders at 10%.4

This means that our expectation for Kizer should be somewhere between 10-20%. But what about the fifth rounder Hogan? All quarterbacks selected in the fifth round and had a success rate of 7.8%.5 That’s not an encouraging rate, but not as dismal in comparison to second and third round quarterbacks are you might expect. Hogan’s prior is worse than Kizer’s based on draft position, but the Browns shouldn’t ignore the on-field evidence and give Kizer the nod no matter how the two are playing.

Visualizing Kizer versus historical successes

I’ve shown before my estimate for true passing efficiency using Bayesian updating. It incorporates our prior of a league-average quarterback and then updates what we believe a quarterback’s true passing efficiency is based on the evidence. The more evidence we have, the more heavily we weight that evidence versus our prior.

I thought it would be interesting to show how Kizer visualizes versus other successful second and third round quarterback. I only have data going back to 2000, but we still get a robust group including Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick and Derek Carr.



[img]https://i0.wp.com/predictivefootball.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Unknown-10.png?resize=768%2C475&ssl=1[/img]

The colors might be a bit confusing, but Kizer is the line Browns’ orange line heading almost straight down. Past successes like Brees and Carr saw their true passing efficiency estimate fall as they struggled early in their careers, but not nearly as rapidly as Kizer’s. It’s possible that Kizer is able to turn things around after an abysmal , but it wouldn’t follow the pattern of other second and third round successes.

Hogan wasn’t as bad of a prospect as most think

Most don’t take Hogan seriously based on his draft evaluation from last year and the fact that he was a fifth round pick. But he checked a lot of the non-draft-position boxes you like to see in prospects who outperform expectations.

I found fairly simple set of criteria to find those outperformers: at least three years starting, a career adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) of 8.0 or higher, and more than 20 rushing yards per game. These filters leave you with prospects who won the starting job early, have larger sample sizes, have shown consistent passing efficiency, and have the ability to add value on the ground, which is an undervalued trait.

Hogan joins the group below hitting all those marks: four years as a starter, career 8.7 AY/A and 24.5 rushing yards per game.

[img]https://i2.wp.com/predictivefootball.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/C60QLcJU0AE1iaN.jpg?resize=768%2C545&ssl=1[/img]

Not all of these guys are been successes, but any screen that identifies Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Colin Kaepernick6 is worth monitoring. Hogan also checked the box of accuracy with a career completion percentage of 66%.

Hogan might not have the traits that scouts love, but he certainly had the numbers to forecast success, nearly matching the career numbers of the Stanford quarterback who preceded him, Andrew Luck.

Time to give Hogan a shot

Beyond the fact that Hogan performed at a different level this season, there are also reasons to think that Hogan’s chance of success moving forward isn’t that different from Kizer’s. It’s the right choice to give Hogan a shot to prove himself. I’m not going to get into the need for Jackson to preserve his job with some wins, which clearly tilts the decision in Hogan’s favor.

If Hogan fails, it’s not as if the Browns have turned on a top selection in Kizer. The Browns were fully prepared to miss all four of the top quarterback selection in last years draft after taking three non-quarterbacks in the first round. When Kizer fell to them in the mid-second round, they jumped to select him, but he clearly wasn’t a priority. Therefore the front office and larger organization had a plan during the draft that included a strong possibility they’d be going into the season with only Hogan, Cody Kessler and Brock Osweiler at quarterback.

For a team that isn’t in a rush to tie themselves and mortgage the future on a signal-caller, the risk of waiting too long to a young starter to turn things around could outweigh missing the opportunity to what else you have on the roster. In the same regard, if Hogan struggles, there’s no reason to hesitate in going back to Kizer and seeing if some time on the bench studying will improve his outlook.

https://predictivefootball.com/kizer-or-hogan-who-should-the-browns-start-next-week/

I think not making this decision would get people fired.

I think Jimmy Haslam is mostly a hands off owner, but in this case I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't at least ask Hue and the FO why they weren't playing Hogan. I would have. So would most of you. Jimmy owns a NFL team. He sells wins. He isn't going to sell seats if we keep winning a game a year while we play like some minor league team with a QB who would have benifited greatly by staying in the college game.

I feel like hindsight will be ignored by most in the worst case scenario. If Kevin Hogan struggles, it just becomes, "This team seriously thought KEVIN HOGAN would save their season?" or "You quit on Deshone Kizer, because you thought KEVIN HOGAN was the answer?" etc.

Kevin Hogan is the logical answer for now, but I have grave concerns regarding just how much of a difference he can make. If it isn't a significant difference, I fear my dreams and ambition of this team finally having some semblance of continuity are going to be crushed yet again.

As much as we should, most fans and media won't award Kevin Hogan any patience as a young player himself. And we can't go back to Kizer now. Hue can pretend it isn't so as much as he wants, but this action will kill any confidence Kizer had left. You only bench a quarterback for two reasons: He's injured, or you don't believe he can win in this league. Hue's actions, intentional or otherwise, will speak louder than his words.

All we can do is try. Hogan has moved the ball and scored points in his limited action. Kizer didn't with significant playing time. Let's see what Hogan can do over the next 4-5 weeks. If it looks much the same as Kizer, go back to Kizer for the final 5-6 games to get another look.

This is a bit of a lopsided bet offer, no? Hue just has to find a job (and only if he wants to???) and yet Sashi has to find one in the NFL? C'Mon Man!

If either one is fired, neither one is going to be hired for the same job right away. And yes, I would bet that all day long.

Keep things in perspective, people.

Ummm ... history doesn't support the above ... in 2015 we won 3 games ... in 2016 we won 1 game .... were 0 - 5 this year ... that means were 4 - 33 over our last 37 ... thats 11 losses for every 1.25 wins ... in 2015 who knew that would be considered a good year ... *L* ..

And u can extend it further if you like ... the most wins hes had is 7 ... HE'S NEVER BEEN 500 .. what year is this of his ownership?

Just curious ... how long before the seat seller ( ) stops selling seats? ...

I've said it since year 2 .... HE'S THE PROBLEM!!! ... always has been ... head of the snake ... and he is a snake ...

We've been the LAUGHING STOCK OF THE LEAGUE since he's bought the team ... he brought the CIRCUS TO TOWN ... and thats a compliment ... we've earned being the laughing stock of the league ... we've earned it ...

FACTORY OF SADNESS .... how has that not been the book title for his reign? .. please explain .... years 4 - 6 of his ownership has produced 4 - 33 ... LET THAT SINK IN ....

And thats not coming off super bowl seasons ... thats coming off a 7 win 2014 and a 5 win 2013 ... if he owned the team for all of 2012 that year we were treated to 4 whole wins ...

HOPEFULLY he FINALLY STAYS THE HELL OUT OF THE WAY ..

Think about this Peen ... hes been SO BAD that even if Hue and Sashi do 3 things that should be fireable offenses ... the thief couldn't fire them cause we'd literally get no one to ever come here .... why would they? ...

Crap ... Vers and GM (name fits bro .. *L*) may be the most qualified coach and GM we could hire if he fired Hue and Sashi now or even after next year ...

Think about that .... HES BEEN SO BAD HE CAN'T FIRE PEOPLE CAUSE HE'D GET NO ONE TO REPLACE THEM ...

Folks looking to place blame .... ITS RIGHT HERE ...

Hogan has played roughly 3 quarters and led the team to what, 24 points?

Kizer has played the other 17 quarters and led the team to 53 points.


Hmmm.....

When, after the Steelers game? After the second game? Maybe after the third game? Would you really expect him to bail on Kizer after three or four games? Nonsense. He let it play out as long as possible, then made the decision when he had no other choice. The team is a mess because it's young and they're screwing up with insane consistency. Without the drops, the turnovers, the missed field goals and stupid penalties we're not even having this conversation. Hogan MIGHT bring some stability, but that doesn't mean we're suddenly going on some miraculous winning streak. Hue is doing what he has to do to hopefully stabilize an erratic, young, inexperienced and confidence shaken team. Let's not make this more than it is.

Admittedly, I'm jaded. I've had this conversation before when Austin Davis and Connor Shaw became fan favourites due to moving the ball and scoring points in their limited action.

Kevin Hogan was drafted by KC but cut after a single training camp because Andy Reid saw a brighter future in Tyler Bray. Hogan was with us all last year and all this year, and Hue Jackson is only starting him now, which isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. If Hue felt Hogan was the answer, Kizer would have never seen the field and Hogan would have never been on the practice squad.

I'd love to believe he's going to march in and singlehandedly save our season, but I won't hold my breath, and I think this has painted a huge target on Hue's back.

I sure hope we don't see Kizer the final 5-6 games. Hue quit on him, and four weeks isn't going to change that.

Hogan was on the practice for all of just a month before he was promoted to the roster (due to injuries). Kizer came long after Hogan was on the practice squad, so I don't think you can really correlate the two.

I also don't think Hue "quit" on Kizer. Kizer has been awful and although yeah, maybe he led the team into the redzone, he turned the ball over TWICE.

I was watching the game and at half I had told my friends if it were me on defense, I'd go to Hue and say can you please put the Kizer experiment on hold so we can win a game....

I don't think anyone in the organization has "quit" on Kizer. He definitely has talent, but he needs to learn to get rid of the ball and throw with accuracy before he's going to be any team's savior.

With Kevin Hogan starting, we now have a chance to win against the Texans. Watson will probably prevent that because of his superior skills that we never paid attention to in the draft. At least Hogan gives us hope where as kizer would be hopeless. The might be doomsday for DeShone because of his low low QB IQ. Go Browns!!

I never said Kizer and Hogan's stint to the practice squad correlate. I just made the point the Browns were prepared to lose Hogan. Do you think Myles Garrett goes on the practice squad this year, no matter how many injuries may mount? I'll say no. Because they don't want to lose him. That's how this team feels about Hogan.

But, that's my two cents. If he's what some of you guys think he is, I'll happily admit I'm wrong and we can join in celebration of finding out future - even if it is only a short term future, I'll take that in a heartbeat, but this decision doesn't seem to be one regarding the Browns actually feeling like Hogan is the future so much as a stopgap who might improve our situation.

I think that's incredibly short sighted. Kizer should have been developed (Like Mahomes) or just handed the reigns to play, let him grow, and develop for the future. We're back and forth between both without yet making a clear decision on either.

And Kizer was growing. Week one, he took a million (or seven) sacks. Weeks two and three, he was getting the ball out quicker but it resulted in six interceptions. Weeks four and five, he was getting the ball out quicker (only two sacks) and kept the interceptions down (only two) but his efficiency and production were down as a result of being careful to protect the ball.

Pretty standard in any young quarterback's development. The idea of continuation being that the new quicker passing, cautious-of-throwing Kizer would slowly get more comfortable in making throws while in the process of maintaining his growth of getting it out faster and avoiding turnovers.

Instead, we enter Kevin Hogan. I don't know what other word than "quit" I should be using. He's not getting on-field development anymore. He'll still get to watch film, sure, but I'm a believer in any player getting time on the field to get it right. That's why I'm a supporter of the other rookies getting playing time, even if it results in mistakes, which it certainly has - Peppers hasn't been great, but I don't want him benched.

Kizer isn't ready to be our saviour. But I have my doubts that Kevin Hogan is our saviour. And when Kevin, in my opinion, inevitably fails, we can get back to trying to get Kizer ready to be our saviour.

I just hope this doesn't get everyone fired. I can handle a talented rookie struggling to find his feet in a league which is insanely difficult for a young quarterback to stand proud, but I'm not sure I'm cool with a stopgap struggling while the rookie is cast aside. I'd consider that a black mark on the record. But, again, if Hogan is a saviour, what I've said is nullified.

This is probably the end of Kizer. He can sit for a month and learn the terminology and offensive system better but that's not going to help him with his accuracy and timing once he gets back out there. His mental processor is way too slow and I don't know if that can be improved much at all!!

Replacing Kizer as the starter doesn't mean Hue is giving up on him. Installing Hogan as the starter doesn't mean Hue sees him as the savior of the team. It is doing what is best for the team at this moment in time. How it plays out has yet to be seen.

We have to see what we have at WR, and the other skill positions. I think that it's obvious that the WRs and TEs respond much better when Hogan is under Center. (at least right now) We have to give these other players a chance to show what they can do.

I think you are missing something here... Hogan was never put on our practice squad this season. Last year the Chiefs cut him and we signed him to the practice squad. We already had Griffin, McCown, and Kessler already on the roster. Rarely does a team add a 4th QB to the roster.

So I'm not sure what you mean by "that's how this team feels about him" or "browns were prepared to lose him."

From what I can see, the team thinks pretty highly of Hogan because we signed him immediately after the Chiefs cut him, raised him to the active roster a month later and he's been on it ever since.

Second round pick, smart, rocket arm, Rookie. You are throwing in the towel already? Just a tad early in my book

second round pick is irrelevant, just because we took him in second doesn't mean he's second round talent, as we've all seen with our FO. Smart, book yes, football, remains to be seen. Rocket arm for sure, but has no idea how to use it. I don't think anyone will really be able to tell what his ceiling is until next year. But for the most part he looks like a bust, leading the league in every possible negative statistic for a QB, Just because we want him to be the guy, doesn't mean he will be. Nothing saying Hogan can't be the guy, guess we will find out.

Biggest thing I have issues with Kizer is not being able to play under center and accuracy. The decision making will hopefully get better with more experience, the other two needs to happen first.

I was talking about the chances of either getting another job in the NFL.

And you would have to be from Planet Delusional to think that Sashi has earned more respect in the NFL than Hue has and/or that a team would hire him before Hue.

This is my take as well. Hue and the coaching staff should get alot more leash than the FO, I think the FO should already be at the end of it..I'm actually surprised there isn't more talk about Sashi being on the hotseat. He must have Haslam buffaloed

Well...........I really don't want Sashi to be on the hot seat. I just think it is very unfair that people are placing so much blame on Hue when it was ownership and the FO that totally blew up the roster.

I had a feeling this was going to happen, but it is still annoying.

Welcome to the board BDU.

All I really have to say about your Hogan posts are this.....

Some players you feel strongly will develop, never do.

Other players you feel won't develop, do.

I saw nothing in Hogan last year that would have made me believe that he would have progressed to what I've seen him do this year. He's developed by leaps and bounds over last year. For a 5th round QB pick that's simply not normal. Now people can point to a few names that are the exceptions to that, but that's certainly not the general rule.

I fear what we've always seen in this scenario since I can remember. The back up looks good in small windows of play so the fan base makes the back up QB the most popular player on the team. Then when he becomes the starter and our opponents get some film on him, the fans become disappointed.

As a Browns fan, I certainly hope that doesn't happen. But I've seen this movie so many times I wouldn't rent it from Blockbuster if they were still open.

I think from a fan perspective, the FO did a rebuild in the worst possible way. Unless you hit on majority of your picks and FA, you've extended your rebuild by years. I think keeping some of the vets we had, especially where we were really young, would have been a much easier rebuild and possibly bought more time to work the plan

Pit, I think the move to Hogan has more to do w/Kizer not being ready than having some sort of great faith that Hogan is going to be good.

I think it might do Kizer some good to watch and learn while reflecting on some of the things he was doing in similar situations.

I really never liked the idea of starting him so early. If it were me, I would have kept Brock and let him start the season that was clearly going to be difficult no matter who played qb.

I wasn't a big fan of starting him so early, but I could see the writing on the wall.

And I agree with you as to why Hue decided to start Hogan, I'm just not so sure a lot of the fans don't expect more.

LOL.......it's not like history would make you unsure.

Correct. And the Planet Obvious reigns superior yet again!

Thank you, deceivingdawg.

yep. exactly right.

I think what's more interesting and quite possibly more annoying are the people blaming the front office for the "lack of talent" thus leading the head coach to make poor on the field decisions.

Jokes aside, I don't think either side, Hue or Sashi, should be fired. It's WAAAAAAAY too early to make a decision on either one. Let's wait and see.

I feel this will be the decision that probably gets everyone fired. Hogan ins't going to be the answer here, and this just turns the team into more of a circus then it already its.

Kizer has played 5 games a pro...5....expecting a raw 2nd rd pick to come out and play like an average NFL QB right out of the get is absolutely ridiclious....Goff was terrible last year as a rookie....

If the Browns were "serious" about developing Kizer as QB after cutting the vet Osweiler then you let him play....you HAVE to let him play at that point.

ALL of Kizer's mistakes have simply been your normal rookie NFL Qb mistakes...trying to thread a needle in triple coverage, throwing across his body, etc....that stufdf works in college, but Kizer is still getting used to the speed of the NFL game and how things work.

im sorry but the Browns and Hue Jackson is a complete joke benching his 21 year old rookie QB after 5 games....

Big Ben Rothlisberger was EXTREMELY impressed with Kizer...he saw a lot of what the future of the Browns could be if the Browns stuck to plan of developing him...but as always the Browns kneejerked and benched him.

Thats a big no no when it comes to deveopling a QB...either he sits behind a vet from the get go, or you name him the starter and ride it out....The Browns failed at both of those things...The Browns have failed Deshone Kizer....Peyton Manning was atrocious his rookie year, but his coach didn't bench him after 4 and half games did he?>

this is why this organization continues to flounder..if a guy doesn't play like Brady right out the gate its time to toss him in the trash for someone else...we will never win games as long as they keep doing BS like this....the fans deserve better then this nonsense...this was supposed to be a "development year" anyways if year 3 was their plan to push forward...benching Kizer just puts us farther behind wasting reps on a guy like Hogan who won't even be part of the longterm plan, reps that could really help Kizer in his growing pains...

Sort of j/c

Blowing up the roster was the decision they made, and whether we agree or not none of us are qualified to judge it at this point. And while certainly risky, there's no evidence yet that it wasn't the right move. It's quite possible there may have been mistakes in how they got there but we don't know how it will ultimately work out. (In my view they could have kept some veteran talent but even that would have been risky in terms of performance, ROI, and/or attitude.) Their first draft class was chosen without a full year of prep, and we still may have gotten some very good players (jury still out). The second draft class could very well turn out to be a good one (jury still out). We have a boatload of picks in 2018 and far fewer holes to fill. 2019 could really be a boon year for adding depth and quality starters. Free agency has been difficult in part because of who we are and the culture that's long been established here (i.e. we end up losing Schwartz and Prior and gaining Britt). That's a tough hill to climb. However, we have cap space to fill in holes and help make us a win now team should we chose to do so in FA in 2018. Also, there's plenty of money available to pay some of those contracts that will come up in 2018 & 2019.

I look at the Jets who everyone was sure were tanking this year and I see the limited success they are having by building through the draft, cutting high paid vets and malcontents, and being in their third year with their head coach and see many similarities to where we are now. Last year Jets fans were sure the sky was falling. They wanted to "Suck for Sam", certain they were too bad to win games this year. But here they are at 3-2 behind an aging QB.

This Browns team was stripped to the studs and the FO's collective asses are hanging in the breeze. It was an "all-in" bet on themselves. The fan base can't take it. People are stroking out over Hue & Sashi, and while their inexperience is costing them love points, they still seem (to me anyway) to be heading in the right direction. I don't expect much this year except improvement from where we are now. But I do expect to see a better team next year, and a much better team the year after.

Is this FO & coaching staff perfect? No. Is any? Hell no. I think they're doing some very good work, and I think they are learning as they go. That is the risk you take when hiring people who need to grow into their jobs. Maybe it will all turn to crap. Right now, we don't know but all the angst stemming from the years of abysmal failure by previous regimes do not belong to these guys. They deserve a solid 4-5 years to make their plan work, mainly because they tore it down to the studs and it will take that long to build it back up, but also because nothing else has worked.

JMHO

This sums up my position perfectly, great post.

Thanks, drobs!

no evidence? 1 win 20 loss is evidence....

I feel the same way and have mentioned some of these points on my posts. I would like to add we have to see what we have with KH. He may be good and seems to run the O well. We don't have to give up on DK. He's very young and can still develop even if KH does well. It might up being a win win situation although that does seem strange for us!