DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season 2018 NFL Draft 2018 Draft QB Film Breakdown

Give me Darnold and I will call it a day.

I much prefer Mason =)

Allen - Jeff George/Rex Grossman
Darnold - Matt Ryan/Tony Romo
Jackson - Kordell Stewart/Deshaun Watson
Mayfield - Jeff Garcia/Drew Brees
Rosen - David Carr/Alex Smith

Interesting comps....not sure if serious but I'll bite...


These are the comps I don't get...
Allen-Rex Grossman
Jackson-Kordell
Rosen-David Carr/Alex Smith

Since we are all doing comps, I'll play:

Allen - EJ Manuel
Darnold - Dan Fouts
Jackson - Vince Young
Mayfield - Case Keenum
Rosen - Eli Manning

I would be curious to hear the reasons behind your comps for Allen and Darnold

Allen and EJ
Both Big physical specimens with cannon arms and accuracy issues. EJ couldn't read a defense either and I don't get the sense that Allen can.

Darnold and Fouts
Both have that stocky build and are accurate. They both throw the medium sideline pass beautifully. And they both fumble a lot.

I'd also like to add that I think Vince Young was a pretty good Qb and could have been highly successful if he could have stayed out of his own head.

I guess I don't remember EJ as having Allen's type of arm

I think Darnold is way more mobile/playmaker then I recall Fourts being

I remember EJ having a cannon. Allen's might be stronger but I always find arm strength the most difficult thing to evaluate on TV/video. SO much different in person.

Darnold is more mobile that Fouts was.

I guess I am going by the feel of how they played the game

I’ll try.......

Allen - Favre, both had not great stats in college but big time arm talent and potential, country boys, good work ethics, willing to work.
Darnold - Bortles, big, athletic, but need to shorten there delivery. I do think Darnold is more accurate coming out of college though. But am concerned about the release, watched more of him and slowing the tape down it’s even longer then I thought.
Jackson - this is an easy one for me, Vick. To me they are just very close.
Mayfield - this one is a struggle for me, he isn’t Brees, he isn’t Manziel, there are similarities but not close enough for me. I think right now the closest one for me would be Andy Dalton. I know Andy is taller but I think they play very similar.
Rosen - this one is also easy for me, Sam Bradford, both do everything right when throwing the ball but have durability concerns.

Grossman and Allen, known gunslinger mentalities with very strong arms who lack consistency and accuracy. They like to throw deep and it looks good when completed. Allen is more mobile and possibly a better overall prospect than Grossman. Favre wasn't known as being mobile and I've seen comps to him.

Stewart was Jackson before the type of QB became more "popular." I think you could make the argument that Jackson is the most athletic QB in the draft much like Stewart was in his time. Similar in size, Jackson has been mentioned in a sentence with "position change." Jackson could thrive in a "slash" type role.

Recently read a scouting report of Carr and it sounded like Rosen's of today. Similar in size, although Rosen perhaps a bit thinner. Both known as being able to read the defense, find secondary targets, quick release, leads the receiver, have nice touch on short passes, but both have propensity for batted balls due to lower trajectory and are pocket passers without leaving the pocket to extend plays. Rosen may take less sacks as he tends throw the ball away more while Carr would take the sack. Although I wouldn't be surprised if Rosen leads the league in sacks at some point. Rosen in the discussion as the #1 pick, Carr drafted #1.

I would certainly agree with you about Rosens lack of mobility outside the pocket. However, he does seem to be able to move well within the pocket to help extend plays.

Mason Rudolph - The next Big Ben. He will end up as a top 10 QB in the NFL after a somewhat slow rookie year. He is the most accurate deep ball passer to come out of college in over a decade. He is also the one QB most teams have their eye on. How do I know this? Because no teams are talking about him. They are trying to not draw attention to him.

When it comes to QBs the one they talk about most and the one they talk about least are usually the two qbs teams want the most. The rest of the talk is used for distracting dumb owners to pick one on impulse. Think Johnny Manziel. Rookie owner fell hook, line, and sinker for a QB everyone else knew was damaged goods.

Yes.

And I'm not necessarily comparing mechanics. Rosen seems pretty sound mechanically. Carr has a bit of a funky delivery. But I think Rosen has more batted balls than even Mayfield, I'd be curious to know the exact stats, but I felt the 6'4" quarterback struggled with batted balls moreso than the 6'0" quarterback... but I don't know if that's entirely true as I never actually counted or looked it up.

I don't recall Grossman having a big arm at all. I had to suffer throw watching him play for Washington...he certainly liked to chuck it deep but didn't have a strong arm....no where near the same category as Allen.
Favre was very mobile.

I remember watching Colorado and Kordell Stewart was an option QB that played in an option offense....wasn't in the same ballpark as passer as Jackson.

Really like your comps.

Acc-Accuracy
Arm Strength-Velocity

Athleticism/Escapability-Combination of speed, agility and strength used to escape or elude sacks and pass rush

Dropback/Footwork- Ability to execute a 3-5-7 step drop rhythm passing offense and also the pass drop itself: get away from center, set up, weight transfer and ability to reset when moving indside the pocket.

Experience
-- 1 year as starter + less than two years on bench = inadequate
- 1 year as starter + at least two on bench = below average (Matt Sanchez)
- 2 years as starter + at least 1 on bench = average (Sam Bradford/Blaine Gabbert)
- 3 years as starter = above average (Matt Stafford)
- 4 years as starter = elite (Colt McCoy)

Playmaking-Not just making a play on the run but when a play breaks down and the QB uses a mix of improvisation/decision making and athleticism to make a play.
Display the ability to turn a possible negative play into a positive. What can they do after the given play fails? (broken play, good coverage, pass protection breakdown etc)

Production/Efficiency-Based not only on raw stats and efficiency rating but, trying to consider and account for differences in overall team talent (pass protection, WR, number of draftable players on offense etc). e.g. Andrew Luck would be handicapped for playing behind one of the best OL in football for the past 2 season and only being sacked 12 times combined or Scott Tolzien for having 2 1,000 yard rushers in the same season.

Production baseline average baseline= 60% completions, 750+ attempts, 40+ passing touchdowns.

Size-

Throwing Motion- Mechanics/quick release/variety angles/consistency

Pro/NFL-Pro-readiness/amount of NFL concepts in college offense



Scale:

1-does not demonstrate given ability
2-below average
3- average
4-above average
5-elite

Here's

Early eval 2018 raw scores unweighted (subject to change)

QB Eval----Acc-----Arm----Ath/Esc-----Drop/Foot-----Exp-----Play-----Prod/Eff----Size----Thr/Mot—Pro/NFL
Allen-------2.5-------5---------4-------------4------------3--------4----------2----------5---------5----------3----(37.5)
Darnold-----4--------3---------4-------------4------------3--------4----------4----------4---------2----------3----(35)
Jackson-----3--------4---------5-------------3-----------3.5-------5----------5----------3---------3----------3-----(37.5)
Mayfield-----4--------3---------4------------3------------5---------4----------4----------2---------3----------4----(36)
Rosen-------5--------4---------2-------------5------------3--------1-----------3----------3---------5----------5-----(36)

I guess I'm getting old... haha.

Yes, Grossman had a pretty strong arm, perhaps not the strongest as is the case with Allen, but in the top 10 of the league at the time nonetheless. Known as a gunslinger. His issue was accuracy as is the case with Allen.

Freeman is another decent comp to Allen I feel.

Not really worth the argument but I think you are misremembering Rex Grossman's armstrength or should i say lack there of..

Good call on Freeman as an Allen comp though, didn't think of that one

In my opinion,

Darnold has better than average arm strength.
Mayfield is the most accurate of the bunch.

Allen likened to Grossman and Freeman - fascinating.

Grossman really - The guy was 6'1" and had nowhere near the arm strength of Allen.

I wasn't concerned much with height when I compared Allen. I think that's where people run into issues with comps for Mayfield. He's really in a league of his own, but I think he's most like Brees.

Back to Grossman.... I didn't dig deep, I was thinking of strong armed inaccurate QBs with mild success and went from there. Grossman is still in that group for me.

I went back to find anything that could support or debunk my claims. I read a few different reports. Apparently he was considered having a strong arm coming out of Florida, but reading his days in Washington he was considered not to have a strong arm. Maybe something changed for him?

Reading this scouting report of Grossman, I'm not sure it's necessarily a bad comp, but it's not as good as I thought...

Danielson Scouting Report

I still think the best comparison for Mayfield is Colt McCoy. I'll give advantage Mayfield in the arm strength category, but other than that.. roughly the same player.

Here is my belief on Colt McCoy with no objective evidence to prove or disprove:

In Colt's final game, Alabama knocked him out of the game with an injury to his right shoulder. It is my personal belief that Colt never fully regained his arm strength from that injury and that loss of arm strength really impacted his career.

I think Favre is probably the best comparison. But, I doubt he has the durability to survive the punishment he'll take or the cannon to get away with many of the throws Favre made. So basically, he plays like Favre, but most likely lacks what made Favre special.

Other than being under 6'2" what do McCoy and Mayfield have in common?

You think Mayfield is more accurate than Rosen? If so, did you just use stats?

Because throwing to huge windows is not even close to throwing into tighter windows. It's also not the same as leading receivers into YAC.

I've been reading, watching and etc on mainly Darnold, Allen, Rosen and Mayfield.

Long story short, I don't know which one I'd pick. I like this draft's QB class. Teams needing a QB will want to trade up imo, so we stand to get our QB, trade, and still get a playmaker like Barkley or someone with extra picks..

Appreciate all the links and etc given here.

Let me expound on that. I think they are both highly accurate and I recognize that they ran entirely different offenses and that spread offenses lead to significantly higher completion percentages than pro-style offenses (Stats). However, even in often time huge windows to throw, Mayfield usually hits his receivers in stride leading to YAC and he was very accurate on the run as well. Call it even, in my opinion.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PatrickClaybon/media

This guys media feed is must watch, its filled with good video cut-ups of the QBs prospects

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position

HT WT COLLEGE GRADE WATCH

DARNOLD, SAM* QB 6'4" 220 USC 7.1
ROSEN, JOSH* QB 6'4" 218 UCLA 6.1
MAYFIELD, BAKER QB 6'1" 220 Oklahoma 6.0
JACKSON, LAMAR* QB 6'3" 200 Louisville 6.0
ALLEN, JOSH QB 6'5" 233 Wyoming 5.9
RUDOLPH, MASON QB 6'5" 230 Oklahoma St. 5.6
FALK, LUKE QB 6'4" 225 Washington St. 5.6
WHITE, MIKE QB 6'4" 225 Western Kentucky 5.6

I posted in a QB thread that got locked:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-2018-nfl-draft-qb-rankings-after-week-14

I think it's only fair to point out that these rankings are only for week 14, not through week fourteen, or for the season. (IIUC)

It's crazy that I feel trepidation correcting you here but the ranking posted are in fact through week 14.

No disrespect intended, its in the link

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-2018-nfl-draft-qb-rankings-after-week-14

The only stat that isn't relative in my OPINION is the time to throw because a lot of those can be messed with depending on how they watch things.

Anyways Time to Throw to me is the hallmark stat that directly reflects how fast they process information. The closer to 2.5 they are the better they often transition to the NFL because that is avg NFL throw time.

Of course I'd like to know if the way they got that info is reliable because that is a lot of snaps to time on video that might or might not be in real time and I doubt they were there at each game to time these QBs live each game.

Where's my second round guy Lauletta? No love?

I don't even understand what this means? Are you referring to PFF stats from there QB ranking cards?

And what do you mean when you say their stats are 'relative' except for time to throw?

Do you really think stats meticulously gathered by a professional service used by both NFL teams and NFL broadcasts is puts out subjective stats?

I don't get it.

Actually 2.5 is not the average time to throw in the NFL.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/final-nfl-qb-rankings-by-pff-player-grades-2017

I think its important to consider context for any stat before ascribing "thee" skill that you think it isolates to it. Rarely does any football stat reliably isolate an individual trait because football is a team/system sport with 11 people working in concert to produce the end result.

And time to throw is no different.

I do agree that the ability to process information quickly plays a role in time to throw but I think scheme plays a much bigger role. Scheme takes into account the pass protection, the better the pass protection the longer the time to throw can be due to the ability to call deeper drops 5 and 7-step drops that take longer whereas a team with poor pass protection may be forced to call more 3-step drop and quick game designed to get the ball out quick to mitigate poor pass blocking.

The same applies to receivers. If the receivers can separate quickly, then the QB can get the ball out quickly on slants etc. But if the receivers need time/distance to separate then the pass plays will take longer because.

Or the OC simply might prefer a downfield passing attack based on air yards more then its based on yards after catch.

Then you have to factor in whether or not the QB extends plays. The average of the time to throw can go up when the QB extends the play a few times per game. A couple Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers scramble plays a game has them at 3.14 and 2.78 respectively.


Why would you think it the source of their information is unreliable? Again, PFF is professionally recognized and utilized data service used by college and NFL teams, sport media/new organizations and the actual NFL broadcast coverages.

FWIW, on FirstPick I have taken him in the 7th and gotten a D grade. They recently re-ranked and he's now disappearing in the 3rd/4th rounds. White is similar, C- in the 7th up to disappearing in the 2nd/3rd.

First pick gets more accurate the more people use it.
I believe there prospect rankings adjust to how/where people drafting on their site select them.

Everyone has an ego. Proving they are smarter than everybody else is a game and a huge part of the draft. The combine just further clouds the common sense needed select get the right players. Hopefully Dorsey and company use what the have seen watching film and make this our greatest draft ever.