DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum ANALYTICS...had enough yet ?

Can we stop feeding this troll thread and let it die of starvation?

eh, it's going to be weeks before we have any real news to talk about...

IIRC, Mangini built a team around what you're saying here... and it was kind of a disaster. I'd say that team overachieved only because people didn't expect them to win anything with how old and lacking in talent those teams were.

Lest we forget football guy, Tyler Hamblin!

Come on mac, 5 pages and I don't think a single person supports your point of view. Do you fancy yourself a "lone rebel" speaking out against the masses or something.....and that 20 years down the road the rest of us Dawg Talkers are going to tell our kids, "we should have listened to mac!"?

Players play with emotion all the way through high school. All the way through college. Stop pretending you're the only one who played football here. When you break players down and use analytics in the NFL, you are doing so with players who have been playing with emotion for years and the data in front of you is the results of those players playing with emotion. What you're saying makes no sense.

I'll respond to your absurdity.
If you're relying on emotion as your secret weapon to carry you to victory, you've already lost long before you even set foot in the arena. You are making a LOSER's BET. GUARANTEED.
Being in CONTROL, despite your emotions, wins FAR, FAR more than being emotional ever can or will.

And no, "analytics" cannot quantify that stuff, nor do they even attempt to. This sort of thing is why we have a scouting department, but you're unable to realize that they all work TOGETHER to give the decision makers the most complete set of information to work from. Scouts "measure" the players' heart, give-a-damn, "emotion", and dedication to football the same way they have for decades... with their eyes and ears. They are PART OF THE INFORMATION GATHERING. SCOUTS. SCOUTING. FOOTBALL GUYS.
They. Are. Information.
Information is Data.
Using Data is Analytics.


So, for those who want us to drop "analytics", Why do you want us to get rid of our Scouting Department??
What is it you hate about football guys??

I don't know how right I am, or care how wrong, but I believe, it was analytics, ... phew, dumb analytics that
in the Raiders game, (and when Mac is saying emotion, it relates to "momentum" and momentum has/needs to be factored into "in game" decisions.
That with momentum on the Browns side, late in the Raiders game 2021.
After Greedy Williams got an interception and the Browns had a 1 point lead and could have won with just a 1st down, that on 4th and 1,
the Browns, probably took some mathematical equation in the decision to punt,
instead of just taking a chance and go out and win the freaking game!

And the fact they had a whole 2 minute warning time out to think about it and make the right decision, but still chose to punt, is even more disturbing.

( analytics analyze this for me. If Babe Ruth didn't get a home run for 3 weeks, he's eager and focused to get one! his chances to get a home run have gone up!
If Babe Ruth just got a grand slam last at bat, then Babe Ruth could have taken his foot off the gas just a bit and was more OK with just fowling out or something.
You can see it in soccer or hockey if a team is ahead by 2 goals, vs. another situation maybe where a team is down by 1 and the time is running out.

Now, knowing that that is a thing. And Knowing Greedy Williams had just gotten you an interception in the previous possession against the Raiders. How Dumb was it to punt that ball!
Do you think you are going to get 2 straight turnovers on 2 straight drives? Is that what they were banking on in one of the top 2 most devastating losses, (Chargers) that led to the Browns missing the playoffs, and ended it, ended it before the Steelers MNF kickoff even.

To stay off track, but still be relevant to one of the posts..

I really dislike when people bring up that they played the sport as if that validates their point.

A certain previous poster (which we all know who) used to remind us all the time that he played running back in division 2. Meanwhile, it was like 40 freaking years ago.

1st off Mac, nobody on this board worships analytics.
2nd Why do you insist of calling some people in the front office Geeks when you mean that as a insult?
3rd Just who are these folks your calling Geeks, and making up more crap about how they feel about emotion? Have you ever talked with them.... My money is on the answer NO, but you keep on making up stories in your own mind, but like I suggested before just start them out with Once Upon a Time.

now, that would be a fun mod to the board.....



Or, maybe combine it with a random number generator to randomly select between "Once Upon a Time..", "Word is...", etc...

Geeks?
I read that as Greeks.Had me completely baffled.Depodesta,sounds more Italian but could be Greek.Berry no way.Kokinis sounds Greek but I don't think he's here anymore.
Geeks makes more sense although I don't believe Mac is using it as a compliment.

Once upon a time. (b4 analytics), if the Browns had a 4th and goal inside the opponents 10 yard line, especially early in the game, they would end up with 3 or 7 points.
Far too often since analytics, that becomes 0 points.

There is no "before analytics".

There was a before it was advertised and lauded -(I guess is the word). (parroted, highlighted, droned into us.)

maybe we can sing about Sweet Emotions! You talk about things and nobody cares.

That deserves more than just a "like".

Kevin Stefanski needs to learn from Brandon Staley about relying too much on analytics

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leveland Browns HC Kevin Stefanski has to learn from Brandon Staley’s failure.

You have to hope that Cleveland Browns’ head coach Kevin Stefanski was paying attention on Sunday when the Chargers lost to the Raiders. Chargers head coach rightfully so got flack for his gameplan, as he relied heavily on analytics to decide what to do. It killed the team’s chances to win. Especially when you think it makes sense to go for it on fourth and short when you’re inside your own 20-yard line.

Sure, the Raiders settled for a field goal but when you lose in overtime to a field goal, that’s pretty damning of a situation to put your team in. This is the problem with analytics. It encourages coaches to ignore common sense and rely on statistics.

Here’s the truth about statistics; they mean nothing to the individual. Relying on them, and defaulting to them has plagued too many coaches and cost too many men games. Stefanski is no different at the moment. There’s been a few games where he passed on easy points to go for it on fourth-down or try for two when it’s not needed, and it bit them in the butt.

Kevin Stefanski has to be traditional in his planning for the Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns need Stefanski to not be so cute with his play-calling in 2022. The decision to do so in 2021 cost the Browns a lot. There were a few games where doing the normal, expected, common thing would’ve or could’ve worked. Stefanski got too cute too often. Whether it was passing 30+ times against the Packers when they couldn’t stop the run, or deciding to go for it on fourth down in the red zone when a field goal is all you need.

Stefanski had a habit of making boneheaded moves that were steeped in “analytics”. Hopefully for Stefanski, and the Browns’ sakes, he stops doing that in 2022 and relies on conventional football wisdom, because that’s proven to win Super Bowls.

This article was written by a Chad Porto, who's listed as a "co expert" on the Factory of Sadness website. He's written other masterpieces such as "A Kyler Murray trade to the CLE is unlikely" (Pasted exactly as written). He also writes articles about playing Fortnite.

That's not an article. It's somebody's blabbering from a website called the factory of sadness. It's no different than your posts here on Dawgtalkers. In other words, he's no more qualified to post about analytics than you are.

Brilliant.
Visionary.
.

Answer my question mac.... why do you hate the football people and want to get rid of them?

Nah mac. He's just tiptoeing around telling you that it's stupid.

Emotion means about as much to data analysis as level of spiciness in the burrito the player ate before the game.

Data analysis is the problem the topic addresses in the first place. Had enough data analysis yet.
Analyzing data, when you should be---- taking what is in front of you, pouncing on it, and dominating it.

Should Kevin Stefanski Be On The Hot Seat In 2022?

Originally posted on Browns Nation | By Wendi Oliveros | Last updated 1/20/22
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It is the offseason for the Cleveland Browns.

That is the time to evaluate and reevaluate every player and coach to make sure the person is still a good fit for the 2022 Browns.

No one is excluded from the exercise including Coach Kevin Stefanski.

Should Coach Stefanski be on the hot seat going into 2022?

The answer is no, and here is why.

1. Reigning NFL Coach Of The Year

Stefanski is the reigning NFL Coach of the Year.

He won that award after his rookie season.

While Stefanski had adversity in 2020 that he was able to work through while the Browns were winning, this season’s adversity accompanied a losing streak.

A losing streak in his sophomore season does not warrant him to be on the hot seat or on the verge of being fired.

The Browns spent years changing coaches, and that is a painful process that should be avoided unless absolutely necessary.

Stefanski remains a good coach who had some growing pains but deserves time to right the ship.

2. Career Regular Season Record Is 19-14
As mentioned before, Coach Stefanski is finishing only his second season as an NFL coach anywhere.

His prior experience was in various staff positions with the Minnesota Vikings.

In 2020, Stefanski got a new job with a brand new team.

Through two seasons, he has managed to stay above .500 and finish 19-14.

COVID-19, injuries, and other adversity have been in the mix during these two seasons so that is commendable especially with a franchise that once went 1-31 over two seasons.

In his end-of-season press conference, Stefanski talked about debriefing everyone to learn how to get better for next season.

He said:

“Learned a lot. I think that’s what this week is about. Meeting with all the coaches…giving me their two cents on what worked, didn’t work. One of my main reflections, so disappointed you win 8, you lose 9.”

3. Needs More Time To Build The Team

Rarely does a rookie player peak in his first season or even his second.

It takes time to learn the role and to build and grow with it.

The same is true for head coaches and specifically Stefanski.

Though he seems to be an ultra-prepared person, nothing could prepare him for the events of this season.

The injuries and the issues with Odell Beckham Jr.

That is where the learning comes in.

Stefanski spoke of documenting the learnings in an improvement plan.

Every player and coach including himself has an improvement plan to work off of and reflect on during the offseason.


Hayden Grove
@H_Grove
Kevin Stefanski said that the Browns will have an improvement plan for every player and every coach, including himself, to ensure that this disappointing season is a one-time occurrence. #Browns
4:16 PM · Jan 10, 2022

Analytics glossary: A guide to understanding the changing language of football

Updated: Feb. 16, 2022, 4:55 p.m. | Published: Feb. 16, 2022, 4:00 a.m.
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By Scott Patsko, cleveland.com
CLEVELAND, Ohio – The language of football is changing. Traditional counting stats like yards and attempts remain an important part of the conversation, but they’re now sharing space with terms like DVOA and EPA and success rate as analytics gain a stronger foothold in football.

There’s a lot that can get lost in translation.

So, to help you better understand how football is being described and analyzed today (and to avoid having readers get lost in our stories that use these terms), we’ve put together an analytics glossary to help explain what these new terms mean and what they tell us.

DVOA

What it means: DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted value over average. It’s a metric created by Football Outsiders that compares success by a team or player on each play to a league average and adjusts for strength of opponent.

What it tells us: DVOA works off the premise that a three-yard gain on third-and-2 is better than a three-yard gain on third-and-5. In other words, it adds context to performance that simple counting stats like total yards gained or yards per play won’t tell you. DVOA is displayed as a percentage, telling us how much above or below the league average a team or player is performing in terms of efficiency. In 2021, the Browns ranked first in rushing offense DVOA, performing 11.4 percent better than the average offense.

EPA

What it means: EPA stands for expected points added. This stat has been around since the 1970s but has become popular in recent years. Expected points tries to define how many points a player or play is worth to a team. Think of EPA as the measurement between what’s supposed to happen on a play and what actually happens.

What it tells us: Every play has expected points, given the down and distance. Expected points added (EPA) measures the change in expected points in each play. The expected points on first-and-goal from the opponent’s 1 would be 6.0 because a touchdown is highly likely. The expected points on first-and-10 from your own 20 is much smaller, about 1.06.

For offense, a positive EPA is better. For defense, a negative EPA is better. EPA numbers are small. The Browns’ league-leading EPA per target on screen passes in 2021 was 0.47.

Explosive plays

What it means: This stat can have a varied definition depending on the source. But the general idea is that an explosive run play is at least 10 yards and an explosive pass play is at least 15 yards.

What it tells us: Some analytics websites such as Sharp Football Stats keep track of explosive plays as a percentage of a team’s total plays, which can help explain how explosive an offense is compared to the rest of the league. Individually, tracking explosive runs by a player such as running back Nick Chubb adds context to his overall rushing yards and yards per attempt.

Pass rush productivity

What it means: PRP stands for pass rush productivity and is a stat created by Pro Football Focus to give context to a pass rusher’s performance. It measures quarterback pressures created per snap by defenders. More weight is given to sacks.

What it tells us: PRP provides a clear understanding of which players are most efficient with their pass rushes. By breaking things down directionally, it can tell us which side of the field a pass rusher finds more success. For example, Myles Garrett’s PRP in 2021 was 9.6, which ranked fifth among edge rushers. Just from the right side of the line, Garrett’s PRP was 9.8, which also ranked fifth.

Pro Football Focus grading

What it means: Pro Football Focus is one of the most popular analytics websites, and its player grades are often cited by the media. PFF grades every player on every play and uses a scale of 0-100, with higher grades indicating better play. PFF has explained its grades this way: 100-90 elite; 89-85 Pro Bowler; 84-70 starter; 69-60 backup; 59-0 replaceable. In other words, it’s similar to how we would match up percentages with traditional letter grades in school.

What it tells us: An NFL player can be on the field for 50 or 60 snaps, only a handful of which we will remember after first viewing. PFF’s grading provides some context to how the player performed overall, and in many areas. For example, a tight end not only runs routes and catches passes, but also run blocks and pass blocks. PFF provides grades on all those areas to provide a view of the player’s overall performance.

Success rate

What it means: This stat is at the core of many other advanced stats like DVOA and EPA. It measures the percentage of plays that were considered successful for the offense. A successful play is one that gains at least 40 percent of the necessary yards on first down, 60 percent on second down and 100 percent on third or fourth down. Some of those percentages can vary based on who is providing them, particularly on first down, but that’s the general idea.


What it tells us: Success rate is another stat that adds context to traditional stats. It can help us understand the consistency of a team or player.

Win rate

What it means: ESPN’s pass block win rate measures how often an offensive lineman holds his block for at least 2.5 seconds. From the defensive side, it measures how often a rusher can beat his block within 2.5 seconds. The 2.5 seconds is important because the average time to throw for NFL quarterbacks is roughly 2.7 seconds.

What it tells us: Win rate creates a baseline for gauging linemen that accounts for how fast or slow a quarterback is at getting rid of the ball. An offensive lineman can struggle to hold a block, but a quarterback’s quick release accounts for it. Similarly, an edge rusher might beat his block quickly, but the ball is already out of the quarterback’s hands. Win rate tells us who is actually doing their job well despite the outcome of the play. Myles Garrett led edge rushers in pass block win rate in 2021, beating his block within 2.5 seconds 28 percent of the time. Joel Bitonio was third among guards in pass block win rate (96 percent).

Yards per route run

What it means: Yards per route run (Y/RR) is receiving yards divided by routes run.

What it tells us: By taking into account the number of pass patterns a player ran, we get a better idea of their efficiency, as well as how much they are used. The Rams’ Cooper Kupp led receivers in this stat in 2021 with a Y/RR of 3.12.

Informative post.

While that is helpful, it is not the end all, be all, when it comes to football. It is just another piece of the puzzle. But you already know that.

Cleveland Browns analytics front office may balk at ultra-expensive QBs

by Elliot Kennel 3 minutes ago
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Charge up your calculators, Dawg Pound, because the NFL has lost its mind on quarterbacks, and the Cleveland Browns might be one of the few sane players.

The Cleveland Browns may not be players in the Baker Mayfield sweepstakes at today’s prices. It seems as if Covid or some other dread disease may have attacked the brains of NFL general managers because they have gone mad overpaying for quarterbacks.

They are spending their teams into salary cap hell by paying decent quarterbacks like Matty Ryan an astounding $48.9 million dollars in 2022 salary cap charges. Even an indecent quarterback like Deshaun Watson is good for over $40 million. No team is buying wins by investing in these $40 million dollar plus per year contracts.

The MBAs and economists are going to punch in the numbers and find out that if you overpay the quarterback by that much, the salary cap is so screwed up that that team cannot pay for the players it needs to actually win the game where it really counts: in the trenches, especially on defense.

Well, what about Patrick Mahomes? He’s getting paid all that money and the Chiefs are perpetual contenders, right? Wrong. The Chiefs have promised to pay big dollars in the future, but If you look at the actual salary cap dollars to date, Mahomes’ salary-cap charge for 2021 was only $7,433,381.

That’s actually significantly less than Baker Mayfield, who cost the Browns $10.5 million. The Chiefs have promised whopping big dollars starting in 2022, when his cap charge increases to $35,793,381. That’s the thing. The league has gone through a phase when there have been a lot of big numbers thrown around, and 2022 is the year when it is just starting to become real.
To some extent, they can refinance and restructure, but many of these quarterbacks are getting old and they actually can’t defer payment much longer.

The largest quarterback salary-cap charge in 2021 was Russell Wilson of the Seahawks at a cool $32,000,000. His team won 7 games. Russell missed a few starts due to injury, but his personal record was only 6-8.

In fact, let’s look at the top-10 quarterbacks in terms of salary cap charge as well as the percentage of the total cap allowance. Cap allowance was $182.5 million in 2021. Salary numbers are courtesy of overthecap.com and calculated as a percentage of cap allowance by your humble correspondent.

Player (2021) Team Cap Number Pct of Cap Allowance
Russell Wilson Seahawks $32,000,000 17.5%
Kirk Cousins Vikings $31,000,000 17.0%
Aaron Rodgers Packers $27,573,568 15.1%
Matt Ryan Falcons $26,912,500 14.7%
Jimmy Garoppolo 49ers $26,850,000 14.7%
Ben Roethlisberger Steelers $25,910,000 14.2%
Derek Carr Raiders $22,125,000 12.1%
Carson Wentz Colts $21,305,882 11.7%
Matt Stafford Rams $20,000,000 11.0%
Dak Prescott Cowboys $17,200,000 9.4%

2021 Average of TOP 10: $25,087,695 (13.8% of cap allowance)

Wilson’s personal win-loss record was 6-8 this season. The second highest salary cap hit was Kirk Cousins. His team was 8-9 in the weak NFC North. Third highest was Aaron Rodgers of the 13-4 Packers, followed by Matt Ryan of the 7-10 Falcons. Jimmy G of 10-7 San Francisco rounds out the top-5.


We can certainly construct a case that league MVP Rodgers deserved his money, and Matt Stafford, Derek Carr, and probably Jimmy Garoppolo based on his accomplishments, though his front office hates him, as evidenced by the fact that they gave up a king’s ransom to draft his successor.

Dak Prescott’s figure is heavily discounted because it is the first year of his multi-year contract. The rest of them underachieved their contracts, frankly. The best values were Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson (though injured), and certainly, Joe Burrow, who were operating on their rookie contracts and do not appear in the top ten for 2021 or 2022. The 2021 quarterback veteran class as a whole is way overvalued. It also should be mentioned that Tom Brady found a way to defer his salary to such an extent that his cap number is slightly less than Baker Mayfield’s. He too was a huge bargain.

It starts to get really nuts in 2022, as you can see from the top-10 list below. The 2022 Salary Cap is scheduled to increase to $208.2 million, a phenomenal increase. But it’s not just the raw cash. Adjusting for inflation, the quarterbacks are hogging up a much greater share of the percentage of the cap allowance than ever before.

It had been creeping up previously. As a check, ten seasons ago, in 2013, the top ten quarterbacks averaged $15.2 million and 12.4 percent of the team cap allowance. In 2021, that figure had grown to $25 million and 13.8 percent of the cap allowance, as shown in the table above. But the 2022 numbers show the top ten are averaging $38.6 million, which is 18.5 percent of the salary cap allowance. This is an enormous difference, and it is out of whack.

Player (2022) Team Cap Number Pct of Cap Allowance
Matt Ryan Falcons $48,662,500 23.4%
Aaron Rodgers Packers $46,664,156 22.4%
Kirk Cousins Vikings $45,000,000 21.6%
Deshaun Watson Texans $40,400,000 19.4%
Ryan Tannehill Titans $38,600,000 18.5%
Russell Wilson Seahawks $37,000,000 17.8%
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs $35,793,381 17.2%
Dak Prescott Cowboys $34,450,000 16.5%
Jared Goff Lions $31,150,000 15.0%
Carson Wentz Colts $28,294,119 13.6%
2022 Average of TOP 10: $38,601,416 (18.5% of cap allowance)
But let’s just look at the percentage basis for the top player, Matt Ryan. Ryan is currently scheduled to receive 23.4 percent of the 2022 salary cap allowance. The only player we thought was possibly worth his high salary in 2021 was Aaron Rodgers at 15.1 percent of the 2021 Salary Cap Allowance. That is a huge difference.

To be precise, it is (23.4 percent -15.1 percent)/15.1 percent * 100 percent = 55.0 percent. What this means is, correcting for inflation, Matty Ryan is being granted an inflation-adjusted 2022 salary that is 55 percent higher than Aaron Rodgers received in 2021. The raw numbers are even more gross: ($48,662,500 – $27,573,568)/($27,573,568) = 72.8 percent.

How can Matt Ryan be so much more valuable than the league MVP? The answer is that he is not. The Falcons have no guts to say no, and most of the NFL teams are the same way. They will be punished in the won-loss column.

Suddenly, in 2022, eight quarterbacks are now more valuable than league MVP Aaron Rodgers was last season (including Rodgers), on a percentage basis, correcting for cap inflation. So what has happened to make quarterbacks so immensely valuable in one year? The answer is — nothing. NFL general managers have lost their minds.

Remember when your mom used to ask you, “So, would you go jump in the lake just because the next-door neighbor kid is dumb enough to do it?” Well, yes, NFL general managers would go jump in that lake. They’ve been promising huge mega deals ever since the Chiefs promised an insane $450 million dollar deal to Patrick Mahomes, and it has always been promised for later. Well, later is happening in 2022.
For all of the fans — not just fans, but all over the country, this is the time of year when fans fantasize about ditching their team’s quarterback for someone else — who may be salivating over the prospect of adding someone like Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, or accused deviant Deshaun Watson to the payroll, be advised that not everyone thinks it is a great plan to spend the team into oblivion for the sake of old men who were once good quarterbacks.

How much do the Cleveland Browns owe Baker Mayfield?
By the way, the Browns are on the hook for $18.85 million to Baker Mayfield, fully guaranteed, and it is not clear that any NFL team would be willing to trade for that. Nor is there a guarantee that Mayfield ever gets out of the shoulder harness. After a year of mangling that torn labrum in NFL combat, how much is there to sew back together? Will it be like it was before?

Do you realize that even in 2022, the combined cap charges for Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald amount to less money than the cap charge for Matty Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Deshaun Watson?

Makes sense to me. As more and more QB's enter the league that run at a high rate, the QB position can become a "somewhat" throw away position. Play a guy his rookie contract, sign him back at a lower rate or move on to the next guy.

What kind of hell site did you link to?

I'm waiting for my laptop to self destruct! It's actually a legit site, but if you put in a topic it will find every article from any source...legit or not. Now I know where mac gets his bizarro stories from.

Call me crazy, but I actually like it.

Thanks mac, this thread pays dividends after all!

Cleveland Browns analytics front office may balk at ultra-expensive QBs


https://dawgpounddaily.com/2022/02/22/cleveland-browns-analytics-quarterbacks/