DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum ANALYTICS...had enough yet ?

I just want to point out that American Football was born at Yale University and first played amongst all of the Ivy League schools.
An undergrad medical student at Yale, Walter Camp, is the father of football. Football as it exists today would not be as it is without him and the geeks from Yale.
Geeks are the REAL FOOTBALL PEOPLE; all others are pretenders trying to be as good.

Indisputable.

Indisputable.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Camp

Walter Camp, 1880 something- to 1925, died in 1925. the Ivy leaguers are the masters of American football, like the Abolitionists, who outlawed alcohol until the repeal of prohibition legalized it again, are the masters of modern day politics. And understand the war on drugs, the cartels, fentenol, and the motivations behind a government giving needles to addicts.

In the same way, that Henry Ford, is the master of the Modern Interstate highway system, and the Real understander of cloverleafs, diamond lanes, and gas taxes and electric vehicles. (who understands Real football),
In the same way that the German 1940s dictater, (because of speaking in front of groups of 200,000+ crowds, can be considered the Real communicators and the only ones who could understand something like twitter, or satellite television broadcasts.

In that same way, yes it is indisputable that someone who invented the Line of Scrimmage, may have been an ivy leaguer, they may have invented all the rules of football, and that may not be indisputable
But!
the bottom line is,
The Football programs of the ivy league schools, may have been tops in the nation at some point in American History, in the 1950s but not more recently than that.
Today the football progams of the ivy league schools have been bottoms in the nation for the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and before and are today, So Much So, That!
The best football players, coaches, and innovaters alive today,
and their parents generation, never even considered the Ivy Leaguers, or the Ivy League as any place to expand on the greatness of American football.
any more than the greatest of lawyers, and greatest of polliticians would enroll in ... (some fly by night university.)

The Ivy league, has been the pathway of Senators, and Presidents, but it's not the pathway of football
anymore than Hawaii is the pathway of Ice hockey players
or Upper Michigan is the pathway for Surfers for that matter.

You do realize that Moneyball was just a movie, right?

So, he was analyzing? Is that what you're saying?

Seems he may be over-analyzing the analysis. I think the micro-analytical angle is the right approach here.

Dude, did your cat really die? I'm sorry to hear that. A gotta admit though, seeing that as your sig stopped me dead in my tracks.

I wouldn't joke about my cat. He was awesome!!!! Maybe sometime I'll start a thread about him.....

J/C

I am not sure where to post this piece. It is an interesting read. I'm posting the first few paragraphs, but I think the article (long) is an interesting read.


Position Focus: First off, lets make sure we are clear that an analytics-heavy front office will focus all of their efforts in producing in the pass game (especially explosive passing game) and stopping the opponent’s passing game/QB. If you ever hear someone link the Browns, or any front office that leans heavily on data, to a “run stuffing” whatever, then just ignore said analyst. It is fairly certain that the Browns will only focus on these positions high in the draft (top 2 rounds)- QB, LT/RT, pass rusher, good coverage DB. JOK last year was a very unique case as a hybrid LB/S type of player who was a tremendous athlete that excelled in coverage at ND. I think that type of hybrid uber athletic player who can cover is now clearly in the mix as opposed to your prototypical middle LB who stops the run. DT is typically not considered a highly coveted position early in a draft by the Browns but if they did ever go that route it would certainly only be one that is a dominant pass rusher and not a run stuffer. There is a reason why data heavy franchises like the Browns are so focused on the passing game. Here are the explosive pass play ranks of Superbowl teams since 2016: 2nd, 5th, 4th, 5th, 1st, 9th, 2nd, 20th, 1st, 6th.

Key Metrics:

Age- We have long known that other sports like Baseball and Basketball favor younger prospects than older ones. The NFL has really trended that way as well and the data has shown that younger players (under 22) have outperformed the older draft picks high in drafts. From 2000-2017, 26% of first round players drafted at age 21 or younger (excluded QBs), have made at least one all pro team with a weighted career approximate value ( Approximate Value: Methodology | Sports-Reference.com) per player of 0.42. This compares to only 18% of players drafted at age 22 or older making an all pro team and a wAPV of 0.40. It’s not a gigantic difference but enough to trend toward younger players in round 1. Andrew Berry has only been in charge of two drafts but in those drafts, he has made four top two round selections (Jedrick Wills, Grant Delpit, Greg Newsome and JOK). All four of those players were 21 years of age at the time of when they were selected. Maybe it is just coincidence that they were all under 22 at the time of the draft but it probably is not if you understand the data trends. Is it to say that the Browns absolutely will never draft a player who is over 21 if they fit a need and check every other box? Maybe not but for purposes of trying to predict who this front office will likely continue to target, I think they will almost always skew younger. It should be noted that the one exception may be at QB where data does tend to lean toward more starts being valuable to a good NFL career. We have seen just as many older QB prospects perform well than younger ones. And this is not to say that the Browns will have a hard and fast rule of cutting off players right at 22 years old, that would be absurd. I do believe, however, that once the prospect is around the age of 22, there is a sliding risk/upside scale and the bar must be higher for the slightly older prospect. Meaning, a player at 22.2 years old must be substantially better prospect than a similar player at 21.2. Also, it will matter what class that older prospect is in. A 22.1 year old Junior (Like Treylon Burks for ex) gets more leeway than a 4th year Senior at the same age.

Workout Metrics- The Browns really tend to also target very good/elite athletes in rounds 1 and 2. They love elite athleticism matched with on field production. They will not take a great athlete who tested well but was a big underachiver in college. high in the draft. On the otherhand, it would be a complete shock if they drafted a player with excellent on field production but posted poor athletic testing. Every round 1 and 2 selection under Berry has produced a Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of at least 8.4. RAS was developed by Kent Lee Platte and aggregates all combine/pro day measurables into a single number on a 10-point scale. Because Delpit was injured leading up to the 2020 draft and last year many players didn’t participate in full workouts due to the pandemic, there is a lot of incomplete data to produce SPARQ scores (Speed, Power, Agility, Reaction and Quickness. Nike created SPARQ to athletically measure high school athletes and was initially adopted in the NFL by the Seattle Seahawks). However, rest assured each of Berry’s selections produced enough athletic testing data to likely post high scores. Every Sashi Brown/Depodesta selection in rounds 1 and 2 produced a SPARQ score of at least the 82nd percentile or better. Even Larry Ogunjobi was 4th among DT in SPARQ at the combine in his season. Not to complete dive deep into the minutia but the Browns, among every NFL team, leans on specific workout metrics within different position groups. It’s not easy to pinpoint the exact measureables they look for within these position groups but should be noted, for example, that every Sashi/Berry edge rusher drafted (Garrett, Nassib, Ogbah) posted excellent 10 yard splits (1.62 or better). Even the Browns FA signing of Takk Mckinley (1.60) last year was a little more proof that a good 10 yard burst is something they covet with Edge rushers. It is important to note that teams are starting to more and more utilize GPS tracking data which is not available to the public. This data was used to help draft Richard Lecounte last season and is most likely used more when there is incomplete speed information or if there is a strong disconnect between game/tape speed and 40 times.

Power 5 School- Between Sashi and Berry, every single one of the nine drafted players in the top two rounds have come from a Power 5 school. Considering a large percentage of all top two round selections in any draft will always come from a Power 5 school, this may likely just be a product of the pool of players typically selected. But it is something that should be noted.

PFF Data- This is not to say that the Browns use PFF’s draft board to drive selections because that would be absurd. But, they clearly either use data to produce similar results or the Browns entrust the graders at PFF enough to supplement their internal scouts. In either case, history says that the Browns draft board aligns nicely with PFFs big board. In fact, the Browns four selections in the top two rounds under Berry have all ranked in PFFs top 21 in both seasons. And that doesn’t even consider the fact that they drafted some players on the PFF board, who were ranked higher than consensus, later in drafts when they selected Jordan Elliot and Harrison Bryant. When projecting who the Browns may be looking to draft high this season, it would be a mistake to ignore PFFs big board and I would be stunned if they completely overdrafted a player that PFF had ranked much lower than draft slot.

QBASE- I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that if the Browns do decide to draft a QB this season, make sure you pay attention to what the Quarterback-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience (QBASE) projection system spits out. The inventor of this projection system is Andrew Healey, who came from footballoutsiders and is now in the Browns organization as VP of Strategy and Research. It should be noted that QBASE gave Baker Mayfield the 4th highest grade in the database’s history and of course the Browns drafted Mayfield #1. For what it’s worth, the QBASE projection gave FA Marcus Mariota the 7th highest grade in database history.


BROWNS DRAFT SEASON

Yes, when having a healthy QB in Stefanski's first season as HC we went 11-5. Oh the humanity!

Please I hope no one turns this into a draft topic. There is a whole forum on the draft, this thread is about objections to analytics.

Case Keenum was healthy all year in 2021-2022. :sticking out a tongue emoji :

Analytics is not there for you. It is there for the team to help them make the most informed decisions possible. Period. It isn't weighted more than other factors and it isn't used in a vacuum.

mac, I don't think you can use the analytics from the article toward wins and losses.

You would use those numbers on draft success. Looking at the drafts since DePodesta started, you can see the success rate improved.

Without a quantitative number, it is hard to be objective. With subjective analysis, it is hard judging whether you are simply lucky, overall talent was better, or your drafting skills are great.

Things that analytics has caused
covid
Russia to invade Ukraine
global warming
destruction of the ozone layer
School shootings
Rapes
Murder
Death of Jimmy Hoffa

And inflation.

If the Browns consider a player from a group, and that group is much smaller based on 6 months, or 1 year of calendar age,

then the Browns, would be neglecting a sizeable group of potential talent, in their talent search.

JMHO, the Browns Front Office and Depo got their grade. There are only 32 teams, one just dipped into our organization and gave him a GM job. I'd call that high praise AND I don't think they care what you think. Go Browns!!!

Like most of your posts in this thread, this is just something you made up.

It's like coming in to read a painful comedy sketch, over and over...

The Vikings think our analytics department is so good they hired someone working under our top brass to be their new GM. And we're supposed to trust your opinion more? Ridiculous.

Macs' opinion has nothing to do with it. It is about observing the very real player set that the front office, (the analytics guys), choose to stock the team with.

Oh really.... why dont you give us a list of the players Depo or anybody else in the analystic department drafted?

I hope the Refs lock this thread before you stroke out bro. smfh.

Something I never said. Something I never insinuated or hinted at.

Soooo, what I'm reading is that you're admitting that you did say that??

Nobody has that information, and unlike you we don't just make things up out of thin air.

Do that Purp...Identify those players...well, except for everybody we have drafted or brought in over the last few years....IDENTIFY THEM!! LOL

I bet you shout at the wind and shake your fist at the sky when it rains too.

The same guy that hailed the return of spring because geese came to his pond whines about using analytics in sports.

Mac, I'm sorry bro, but I have no idea how you would expect someone to answer that "simple question".

How would we "prove" that analytics have given us an advantage over the rest of the league by identifying certain draft picks that bear the fruit of those advantages?


I'll stab at one though, and it actually spotlights how narrow-minded your view of analytics is.

NICK CHUBB

Why? Because "analytics" led to the Browns moving the NBA mentality to the NFL, taking on Brock Osweiler's huge contract and getting a free draft pick... to give another team salary cap relief.

Do "free" players that play like Chubb count?

So now you've resorted to an impression of Biden?