DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Quarterback Defined

I didn't know that Bone thanks. I feel the same way. If TM and AB like him then draft him. I don't know how he will turn out. Hopefully a franchise QB if we draft him!!!

I am missing something on this whole first round grade for Simpson. I think the talking heads have convinced themselves that there has to be more than one QB… similar to Sanders last year.

Alabama didn’t have a better option come in through the portal, so the guy who has been there for 4 years got the nod. He led them to a playoff, but they shouldn’t have even gotten in to begin with. Their past reputation got them style points. He was a mediocre QB on a storied college program… with a bad back…

He might still be available at pick 70….

That could be true, whether it was genuine by them or not. The hard truth is, if every team has a first round grade on him, then he will be a top ten draft pick. QBs are on a different level of being over drafted. If this is factual, he will be long gone by our second pick… in fact he should be gone before our first one.

My contention is, if he goes anywhere after the 20th pick, he has a second round grade on him. Teams give out round grades and most of them don't have 20 first round graded players. They don't make the cutoff at the 32nd player on their board. If a QB shows a strong probability to be a first or second year starter with high ceiling, they are a first round grade and are typically taken in the top 5 picks. If a player has a possibility of being a starter by their 3rd year, but you can't really pinpoint a ceiling, they are typically second round or lower grades. Doesn't mean they will last to the second round. Teams looking for a project behind their aging veteran are looking for these types of players because they are usually nowhere near the top ten in order to draft one.

Any QB taken outside the top ten.. there is a really good probability whoever drafts them has not found their guy. Obviously anyone can come up with examples, but for every example over the past 20 years, you can come up with ten more that didn't make it in the top two rounds. 10% chance is not great odds.

You are drafted where teams have you listed on their draft boards. That's how you're graded. Phrase it any way you like, but you are drafted according to position and grade.

Even QB's drafted in the top 10 don't have a high success rate. A better success rate? Yes, somewhat higher. But then again all top 10 drafted players at every position have a higher success rate so your point seems moot.

The point is in the evaluation which is related to where QBs are historically drafted, unlike EVERY position. QBs are over drafted at a significantly higher rate than any other position and it isn’t close. Yes, I agree you have failures at every position, but the further away from #1 overall, the failure rates of QBs climbs a great deal.

All I’m saying is, if Simpson is drafted outside the top ten, most teams do Not see him as a high ceiling prospect. If you have any team that doesn’t currently have a top ten ranked QB, give him a high ceiling grade, they will find a way into the top ten, if not the top 5. If it isn’t a high ceiling, why do it?

I think you are confusing "high ceiling prospect" means. There is a difference between elite grade and high ceiling grade. And I repeat, all teams use need as a metric in setting their draft board.

And can you please tell me of any position where the further you get away from the #1 overall pick the overall failure rate doesn't climb a great deal? That's holds true for every position in the NFL.

You do realize that a players ranking in the draft is set by how good they are at the position, right? And those players rated the best at their positions get drafted first and it goes down from there, right?

I'm not going to argue with your take on other positions failures. I just know that past the first round, QBs failure rate is astronomical, other positions drop, but how drastic is what we are discussing. If I had time to do a little research, I'm very confident that position is vastly higher than any other position. I get that I went from first pick, but it was meant to be a first round grade argument..

For example. 4 of the top 10 WRs in 2025 were beyond the first round. The only top 10 players that were drafted in the top ten were Ja'Marr Chase and Chris Olave, despite there being 9 top ten WRs drafted in the past 5 years. So, only 22% of the top ten WRs were drafted in the top 10.

Your last point is what we are arguing... I would argue that if you or anyone else ranks Ty Simpson as a first rounder, or expects him to be drafted in the top 24 draft picks would be doing this statement an injustice. To this point of his college career, FOUR years in, he is certainly not at the top of his position in the college ranks... I would argue he isn't in the top 3 in this draft class.

1. Mendoza
2. Allar
3. Beck
4. might even be Nussmeier
5. arguably even Cole Payton could have more upside, with adding 13 TDs on the ground in two separate seasons. If there is a QB for Monken, he might just be it.

I am just looking and trying to find where the differentiator is for Ty Simpson compared to any of the other QBs above. Where is the argument that he has a large separation, given any of the examples.

Before you go off.. I am not stating Simpson is the 6th best QB in this class, frankly, there just isn't justification to put any of the 2-6 guys above another.

I didn't expect you to address it and there is nothing to argue about. It holds true for every position drafted. That's a factual statement.

My point has nothing to do with Ty Simpson. It was the false premise on which you based your case.

I never mentioned Ty Simpson.

I literally showed the WR group doesn’t hold up to your statement. While there are some top 5 QB busts, most of the top guys have come from the top ten picks.

Top ten QBs of 2025:
Matthew Stafford #1 overall pick
Josh Allen #7 overall pick
Dak Prescott 4th round pick 135th overall
Drake Maye #3 overall draft pick
Justin Herbert #6 overall pick
Trevor Lawrence #1 overall pick
Sam Darnold #3 overall pick
Caleb Williams #1 overall pick
Jared Goff #1 overall pick
Joe Burrow #1 overall pick

If you want to go through every position, we can do that, but what I stated was much more based on fact than what you did. The QB position is definitely an outlier.

I watched some Alabama games last year where he threw the ball really well. The Indiana game is fresh in everyone's mind, and he and his entire team looked bad in that game. He has potential. I have seen him throw to receivers down field with anticipation. Meaning he threw them open. he is very intelligent and knows the game. He is the son of a college coach and has grown up around the game. The main reason Monken knows him so well is his dad played at Southern Miss and Monken has been Head Coach at Southern Miss and they meet multiple times during Monken's Head Coaching stint there. Monken also recruited him out of high school when he was OC at Georgia. I do not think those two connections means Monken will automatically want to draft Simpson, but it does mean he has a pretty good idea who Ty Simpson is as a person and a player. I think he is slightly undersized in both height and weight for a top end sure-fire blue-chip prospect. If he were 2 inches taller and 15 to 20 pounds heavier Simpson would be the #2 overall pick by the Jets. He is a decent athlete and can scramble for first downs when he needs to. His arm talent, ability to read a defense, and decision making will get him drafted in the mid to late 1st round. The other thing holding him back is less than 20 starts. He had a fantastic start to last year and a less than stellar end to last season. If he started more games, I think teams would be more comfortable taking Simpson higher. So, the lack of ideal height, weight, and number of starts is why he will not go top of the draft. His ability to throw accurately down field with anticipation and being able to read defenses is why he will still go in the 1st round.

I do not see the Browns taking him at 6 or even after a slight trade down. They will consider him at 24 if available but I am not sure if they will pull the trigger. If for some reason he falls to 39 and I do not think he will, I would have no doubt they will see it as too good of a value at that spot to turn down.

I do not think Simpson is a day 1 starter in 2026 so if the Browns selected him in the 1st the expectations would be start game 1 and that will not be good for him or the Browns. A perfect fit for Simpson would be a team that can draft him, develop him the majority if not all of 2026 and he would be ready day 1 2027. Most people forget Mahomes sat his entire rookie year and learned the game before taking the league by storm in year 2.

If we don’t take Simpson I would take a QB like Allar or Beck early day 3 if they’re there and replace Gabriel. I feel that either one has more upside than DG. JMO

Every position has their highest rated player at that positions drafted first.

Why would you argue that?

If you're argument is that there are less franchise QB's to be found in any given draft, for the most part I would agree. But I think that same argument could be made for franchise LT's in many drafts.

I would agree that's why more teams reach for the QB position in drafts than other positions for the most part.

But stop pretending that top WR's drop to the second round.

The following table lists the primary wide receiver for each NFL team as of the 2025-2026 season, along with the draft round in which they were originally selected.
Team Top Wide Receiver Original Draft Round
ARI Marvin Harrison Jr. Round 1
ATL Drake London Round 1
BAL Zay Flowers Round 1
BUF DJ Moore Round 1
CAR Tetairoa McMillan Round 1
CHI Luther Burden III Round 1
CIN Ja'Marr Chase Round 1
CLE Jerry Jeudy Round 1
DAL CeeDee Lamb Round 1
DEN Courtland Sutton Round 2
DET Amon-Ra St. Brown Round 4
GB Matthew Golden Round 1
HOU Nico Collins Round 3
IND Michael Pittman Jr. Round 2
JAX Brian Thomas Jr. Round 1
KC Xavier Worthy Round 1
LV Jakobi Meyers Undrafted
LAC Ladd McConkey Round 2
LAR Puka Nacua Round 5
MIA Tyreek Hill Round 5
MIN Justin Jefferson Round 1
NE Stefon Diggs Round 5
NO Chris Olave Round 1
NYG Malik Nabers Round 1
NYJ Garrett Wilson Round 1
PHI A.J. Brown Round 2
PIT DK Metcalf Round 2
SF Mike Evans Round 1
SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba Round 1
TB Emeka Egbuka Round 1
TEN Calvin Ridley Round 1
WAS Terry McLaurin Round 3

The following table lists the primary wide receiver for each NFL team as of the 2025-2026 season, along with the draft round in which they were originally selected.
Team Top Wide Receiver Original Draft Round
ARI Marvin Harrison Jr. Round 1
ATL Drake London Round 1
BAL Zay Flowers Round 1
BUF DJ Moore Round 1
CAR Tetairoa McMillan Round 1
CHI Luther Burden III Round 1
CIN Ja'Marr Chase Round 1
CLE Jerry Jeudy Round 1
DAL CeeDee Lamb Round 1
DEN Courtland Sutton Round 2
DET Amon-Ra St. Brown Round 4
GB Matthew Golden Round 1
HOU Nico Collins Round 3
IND Michael Pittman Jr. Round 2
JAX Brian Thomas Jr. Round 1
KC Xavier Worthy Round 1
LV Jakobi Meyers Undrafted
LAC Ladd McConkey Round 2
LAR Puka Nacua Round 5
MIA Tyreek Hill Round 5
MIN Justin Jefferson Round 1
NE Stefon Diggs Round 5
NO Chris Olave Round 1
NYG Malik Nabers Round 1
NYJ Garrett Wilson Round 1
PHI A.J. Brown Round 2
PIT DK Metcalf Round 2
SF Mike Evans Round 1
SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba Round 1
TB Emeka Egbuka Round 1
TEN Calvin Ridley Round 1
WAS Terry McLaurin Round 3

AI can make mistakes, so double-check responses - lol.

Not entirely up to date with regard to where some of those WRs are now.