DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Iranian War

Ceasefire is extremely welcome.

But nothing about regime change. Nothing about uranium. Nothing about nuclear capacity. . . . So far. Maybe that will come in further negotiations.

My gut says we'll end up with something very similar to what we had in place before Trump undid it in Term 1.

It was never going to happen. Going off the deep end would have been if all that happened. Doing something like that and saying something like that are two different matters.

One would have been horrible. The other lead us to what could possibly lead to a satisfactory ending. We'll see.

We'll see. I would bet it is a little stricter. I doubt they get a toll fee. That is like charging people to cross the Atlantic. They need to quit acting like they own the strait. I also doubt they get away without giving up any and all uranium and without inspections.

I could see the lifting of sanctions, but it would be in steps as Iran earns the right to have them eased. They won't go away overnight.

A guarantee they won't be attacked again? I don't see how we could guarantee we would never attack England. Who knows what the future holds?

They are also leaving out a lot of other things like no supporting and funding terror around the world. Human rights issues in their country.

Well everyone wants more safety no matter what route we ended up taking to get there. I surely hope that there is an agreement that covers enriched Uranium, the sponsorship of terrorism, and an end to charging ships to pass through the straights.

My concern is we aren't more safe particularly. Iran showed that without a significant military threat they could inflict enough pain to make the USA want to end the war. They have had regime change from going from an 80+ year old Ayatollah to his son - an unknown quality who is unlikely to be less tyrannical. So no nett gain. We've alienated, abused, mocked western allies and NATO members - unjustly. The NATO countries stuck to their guns and said "not our war - not our mess - not a NATO matter". The only person loving that is Putin. We also gave Putin a MASSIVE financial windfall when the Russian economy was truly hurting, helping their efforts in Ukraine.

Vance earlier claiming that the Military completed every objective is an absolute joke that no-one on the entire planet believes. Trump and the US look foolish and worse - unstable. I think in 30 years time - China will be closer to all these Middle Eastern countries than the USA. We'll see if NATO survives. I have heard several commentators ask the question - if Putin invaded, say, Poland or another bordering NATO country. Do we have complete and utter conviction that Trump would honor NATO commitments? Not any more. Probably? Sure - but it is not 100%. That's a price that this Iran conflict and the unstable, irrational way in which Trump has conducted himself has cost and it is not worth whatever gains we may make assuming the further negotiations go the way we hope.

How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran

link

April 7, 2026 

I suppose you did come up with an excuse for a president to sound like a raving lunatic. "At least he didn't really do it."

It's simply an agreement for a temporary 14 day ceasefire. It's not even negotiations for a lasting peace. I saw Hegseth on TV earlier making it sound like the war is over and we won based on that and that alone.

We all hope this will eventually lead to an end to the war. I'm tired of watching someone who said if the Democrats were elected there would be a war in the middle east but if he were elected that wouldn't happen, risk the life of our troops when it isn't needed. It's odd how they applaud him when he claims he won't start a war in the middle east then applaud him when he does. It's like they promote him lying to them out loud. They sound almost as crazy as he does.

Just heard Iran once again blocked the strait of Hormuz because Israel bombed Lebanon. IMO Israel is willing to do anything to keep us involved in Iran to meet their own agenda and it's worked thus far.

Well you can debate a whole bunch of different issues regarding this war, the goals, whether we succeeded ... on this statement, I think it's almost impossible to find a counter point.

* To Add - anyone that thinks any ceasefire will immediately open up the straits to large volumes of shipping is mistaken. Insurance companies and shippers will be slow to trust the situation - made worse with Israel's actions.

This is just the plan that Iran submitted. I doubt we have responded to it, and so far I haven't seen a similar list come from the US side. I do kinda wonder what that list is going to look like, given the dubious reasons under which this whole thing was kicked off.

Pakistan's prime minister urging 'restraint' amid reports of ceasefire 'violations'

Pakistan's Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif is urging "restraint" amid reports of ceasefire violations, he said in a post on X.

"Violations of ceasefire have been reported at few places across the conflict zone which undermine the spirit of peace process," Sharif said in the post.

"I earnestly and sincerely urge all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed upon, so that diplomacy can take a lead role towards peaceful settlement of the conflict," the prime minister added.

Sharif did not say specify where the violations took place.

Sharif tagged accounts for President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others, along with the Iranian president and the Iranian foreign minister....................

IRGC says it downed drone over Fars Province

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement that it intercepted and destroyed a Hermes 900 drone over the central province of Fars, Iran, on Wednesday, according to the semi‑official Fars News Agency.

The incident was reported after Iran’s oil ministry’s news outlet said the country’s Lavan oil refinery was hit by a strike earlier on Wednesday. Israel denied involvement in the Lavan explosion.............

Trump says Lebanon not included in deal: ‘That’s a separate skirmish’

President Donald Trump said that Lebanon is not included in the two-week ceasefire with Iran, in a phone interview with PBS.

"Yeah they were not included in the deal," Trump told PBS.

Asked why, Trump said, “because of Hezbollah. They were not included in the deal.”

“That’ll get taken care of too. It’s alright," Trump said.

Asked if he is comfortable with Israel continuing to strike Lebanon, the president claimed this is a "separate skirmish.”

“It’s part of the deal - everyone knows that. That’s a separate skirmish,” Trump said, according to PBS.........................

Israeli attacks hit Beirut's 'densely populated residential' areas, Lebanese PM says

Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam welcomed news of a ceasefire in Iran, but pushed for a similar agreement in Lebanon, saying in a post on X that Israel's strikes there continue to show "utter disregard for the principles of international law and international humanitarian law, which it has never respected in the first place."

Salam said the Israeli attacks undermine international efforts to stop the war.

"Israel continues to expand its aggressions that have targeted densely populated residential neighborhoods, claiming the lives of unarmed civilians in various parts of Lebanon, particularly in the capital Beirut," he said. "All friends of Lebanon are called upon to help us stop these aggressions by all available means."

https://abcnews.com/International/l...7nW28l9vZCZBc_aem_7vMTPE8zcFRqkEflgFP6Uw

89 reported killed on the strike on Lebanon. Trump says Lebanon and Hezbollah are not part of the deal-Iran said they were.
Iran has closed the straight again-

Pakistan has noted many violations of the ceasefire agreement already.
Iran has struck back in various countries including an Saudi oil pipeline

While I was certainly hoping for better results this is going about as I had expected.

Al Jazerra just reported that there were reports of missiles and/ or drones fired at Kuwait, UAE, Qatar and Saudi. Arabia today.

The toll from the strike 112 dead and 837 injured from the Lebanon strike

Iran just put out a statement that if Israel continues any attacks, they are pulling out of the deal and are already preparing retaliatory attacks

The problem as I see it, or at least wonder is do the leaders in Iran have control over the military? My feeling is there at least some elements of the Iranian military who are rogue from whoever says they are leading Iran. The military might have the power over some 4th string diplomat.

According to Iran's Constitution, the Supreme Leader is responsible for the delineation and supervision of "the general policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran," which means that he sets the tone and direction of Iran's domestic and foreign policies. The Supreme Leader also is commander-in-chief of the armed forces and controls the Islamic Republic's intelligence and security operations; he alone can declare war or peace. He has the power to appoint and dismiss the leaders of the judiciary, the state radio and television networks, and the supreme commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He also appoints six of the twelve members of the Council of Guardians, the powerful body that oversees the activities of Parliament and determines which candidates are qualified to run for public office.

The Supreme Leader's sphere of power is extended through his representatives, an estimated 2,000 of whom are sprinkled throughout all sectors of the government and who serve as the Leader's clerical field operatives. In some respects the Supreme Leader's representatives are more powerful than the president's ministers and have the authority to intervene in any matter of state on the Supreme Leader's behalf.

You bring up a lot of maybe's and could be's but there's nothing to indicate that's correct. All sources are indicating that these terms are being negotiated by the actual powers of Iran. Not some 4th string diplomat.